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College Football Handicapping: Your conference realignment primer

05.28.2014     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Is there anything worse than needing half a season to get in tune with all of the conference realignment? The good news is you have three months to study. Godspeed.

American
Coming: Tulane, Tulsa, East Carolina, Navy (2015)
Going: Louisville, Rutgers

ACC
Coming: Louisville
Going: Maryland

Big Ten
Coming: Maryland, Rutgers
Going: Ohio State (kidding!)

C-USA
Coming: Western Kentucky, Old Dominion
Going: Tulane, Tulsa, East Carolina

Sun Belt
Coming: Appalachian State, Georgis State, Georgia Southern, Idaho, New Mexico State
Going: Western Kentucky




Tags: College Football




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

05.21.2014     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Kendrick) at Miami (Eovaldi) -135 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over


My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket winner on the Marlins Over last night, and Miami Overs remain a streak worth riding!  Under-the-radar MLB totals trends offer enormous potential for bettors.  The betting markets don’t seem to notice Over/Under streaks, nor do the national media. 

No talking head will tell you that Miami is 9-2 to the Over in their last eleven ballgames; 28-15 to the Over for the full season; the single strongest Over team in the majors this year.  Yet all 46 of the Marlins previous games this year have been totaled at 8.5 or less; 41 of those games totaled at 7.5 or less, including tonight’s contest.  Quite clearly, the markets are behind the curve when it comes to Marlins totals.

Unders begat unders; Overs begat overs.  Hot hitting lineups don’t get cooled off without ace pitchers to shut them down.  Overworked Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Previewing the Western and Eastern Conference Finals

05.19.2014     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  For all the drama of the first two rounds, it’s an all-chalk Final Four, with the top two seeds from each conference battling for supremacy.

With both Conference Finals getting underway on Sunday and Monday, I’ll take a closer look at the two series.  The goal, as always, is to unearth hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspread success while assessing pace and totals as well.

Predicting series success generally correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  But not as much as last year!  In 2013, the Final Four teams combined to go 31-11 (74%) against the spread in the first two rounds of postseason; each of the four teams cashing at a 67% clip or better.  The ‘surprise’ team of the four, Memphis, went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds before covering only once while getting swept by San Antonio.

The ATS success of the Final Four teams in 2014 pales in comparison to 2013.  Between them, the NBA’s Final Four have turned a Read more



Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




Books to read for sports bettors: Dangerous Odds

05.19.2014     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here's a potentially good summer read for sports bettors. Marisa Lankester tells the story of her involvement with one of the biggest illegal sports betting operations in the U.S. – which was run by Ron Sacco, former owner of CRIS/Bookmaker. The book, Dangerous Odds, is available on Amazon for $20.









MLB Handicapping: St. Louis' Shelby Miller still searching for better command

05.17.2014     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Article on St. Louis starting pitcher Shelby Miller, who despite owning “plus stuff”, has had command issues for much of the season with 27 walks in 44.2 innings. And for his career, he's been a bit lucky that the lack of command hasn't had a significant impact on his results (thus far). Following his last outing against Pittsburgh (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 BBs) Miller went back and watched film to find any mechanical flaws. He's slated to start this afternoon against Atlanta.


"Sometimes when you play catch, you fall out of routine a little bit or don't take it as seriously as you need to," Miller said. "The big thing for me is, even when it's loosening up and playing catch, it's making sure to hit a spot and work on things even between starts every single day. I think maybe that's what I have been slacking at."

"A lot of that is just

Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

05.16.2014     08:18 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Volquez) at NY Yankees (Phelps) -130 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Yankees


It looked as if a new surrounding was going to be the elixir for Edison Volquez after a disastrous 2013. In his first four starts, Volquez posted a sharp 2.02 ERA but some of his success was no doubt fortunate. He wasn't missed many bats (14 Ks in 26 innings) and his BABIP was well below .250. Since then we've witnessed more of the old Volquez with a 9-8 K-to-BB ratio and 8.80 ERA over his last three starts – one of which came against the Toronto Blue Jays. He faces another American League team tonight in a ballpark that isn't an ideal fit for right-handed pitchers. The Yankees are far from potent offensively but I expect them to stack their lineup with left-handed bats tonight. Over the last two years Volquez has had a very difficult time keeping lefties in check. New York's David Phelps is starting out of necessity and I typically wouldn't be looking to support him unless the situation was Read more



Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates New York Yankees Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Draft has little impact on betting markets

05.12.2014     07:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL draft is a thing of beauty for those who appreciate hype without substance.   After months of hype – literally, months of it, more hype than we see for any Super Bowl – the first round of the NFL draft attracted 32 million viewers to the coverage on ESPN and the NFL Network. 

That’s a massive 28 percent increase over the 25 million that watched the draft in 2013.  On digital media platforms, the draft drew more than 14 million visits, a 54 percent increase from 2013.  And I’m not convinced the ratings gold were all the result of Johnny Manziel‘s crossover publicity.  Fans and bettors alike seem to think that the draft is important.

The pre-draft hype is a series of smokescreens, with GM’s and personnel directors around the league unwilling to divulge any meaningful information to media types and those who communicate with media types.  We see mock drafts for weeks leading up to the real draft, with the likes of Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Pete Prisco and Mike Mayock offering their informed predictions. 

And yet despite multiple revisions of those mock drafts – even Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NHL Handicapper Free Play: Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings

05.08.2014     09:47 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Anaheim at Los Angeles -140 O/U 5
Recommendation: Los Angeles


The Anaheim Ducks played fairly well in Games 1 and 2 of this series yet they trail the Los Angeles Kings 2-0 heading into the Staples Center in for tonight’s Game 3. Anaheim held the lead for most of Game 1 but Marian Gaborik scored the tying goal with several seconds left in the third period to force OT where eventually the Kings won. In Game 2, Anaheim poured on the pressure and outshot the Kings 37-17 but could not score the timely goal required to tie the game in the third and LA was able to pull away 3-1. Anaheim didn’t play very well on the road in its first round series against Dallas going 1-2 – the lone win was fortunate as the Stars coughed up a late 4-2 lead with less than two minutes left. Los Angeles is a veteran team with Stanley Cup winning experience and I trust them to step on the throat of the opposition. The Kings jumped out to four straight 3-0 series leads in the 2012 Playoffs. They did the same in the first round last year against St. Louis. LA is the better of these two teams and it has shown in the fact they’ve won two games without playing Read more



Tags: NHL Anaheim Ducks Los Angeles Kings Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians

05.06.2014     11:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Deduno) +125 at Cleveland (Tomlin) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Minnesota


There’s not much respect for Twins starter Samuel Deduno in the betting markets.  Deduno pitched a handful of gems as a part time starter in both 2012 and 2013, but he really tailed off after the All Star break last year. Following shoulder surgery in the offseason,  he opened the 2014 campaign in the bullpen, and got hit hard in his first start of the season against the powerful LA Dodgers lineup just last week.

But for as inconsistent as Deduno has been, he’s got a solid track record against the Indians (.192 batting average against and 31 strikeouts in 36 innings).  And with the extended slump this Cleveland lineup is in right now, even mediocre pitching is shutting this team down.  
The Indians scored 12 runs last Friday against the White Sox, but have combined for a grand total of 18 runs while losing eight of their other nine games over the past ten Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians Teddy Covers



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