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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Week 1 lines and the upcoming draft

04.22.2013     08:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s time to give Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH Superbook credit once again for being the first to market here in Las Vegas with Week 1 NFL numbers.  Don’t tell me Kornegay wasn’t ready!  The NFL announced the 2013 schedule last Thursday evening, and the LVH had their sides and totals posted by noon on Friday.  For an older, non-strip property that lacks a marque signature attraction, Kornegay’s aggressive bookmaking tactics have, quite frankly, allowed the LVH to remain relevant in a difficult era for many similar aging off-strip casinos.

When those Week 1 pointspreads were posted, bettors didn’t flock to the betting windows to lock up their money until September with a wager.  In fact, the betting marketplace gave a collective yawn, with only a handful of big bets written over the weekend on sides or totals.  Why the lack of initial movement?  Two reasons!

First, Jay put up good numbers.  There were no obvious “mistake” lines causing a flurry of betting activity.  And secondly – probably most importantly – we haven’t seen competing books put up alternate Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo Handicapper Andrew Lange gives the scoop on betting baseball

04.17.2013     01:05 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Someone on Twitter sent me a direct message asking how I go about handicapping baseball so I figured I'd share some of my methods here in the blog.

For starters, I try to keep things as simple as possible. Yes, that's a broad statement but there are a ton of factors when it comes to breaking down a baseball game and in my opinion if you try to include them all you inevitably end up with legitimate arguments for both sides – something that can be extremely frustrating. So I’m basically looking to isolate two or three things that I feel with have the biggest impact on the game – one of which is starting pitching which we’ll get to here in a bit.

In terms of price, I tend to stick with short favorites, underdogs, and totals. Value is value whether the price is -105 or -180 but it takes a while for oddsmakers and the betting markets to figure out a lot of these pitchers and teams. In some instances, there is no real mystery – Clayton Kershaw is pretty damn good, and the Houston Astros are awful. But for the first month of so of the season there are a lot of unknowns and as a result a lot of games are mispriced. I see pitchers and teams Read more


Tags: MLB Andrew Lange




NHL Handicapper Free Play: Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues

04.16.2013     10:26 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Vancouver at St. Louis -135 O/U 5
Recommendation: Under


This game is juiced to the Under and deservedly so. St. Louis has shown nothing of late to prove it can score goals on a consistent basis, but still they are able to keep the puck out of the net and that makes them a very lucrative Under team.  The Blues have lost two straight games where they scored just one goal, and before that during their six win streak they scored just 14 goals.  In their last 15 games they've gone Over a total of 5 just twice.  Vancouver comes into town after a solid win in Nashville last night – a back-to-back situation tonight and third game in four nights.  Vancouver has played in six back-to-back situations and only one of those went Over 5.  I expect the Canucks to play a very disciplined road hockey game tonight and limit the Blues’ chances while being patient about their own chances.  This has all the markings of a 2-1 type contest.

Sammy 15* NHL Power Play Total [11-3 79% PP Hot Streak] $20
Sammy hits the ice tonight with Read more


Tags: NHL Vancouver Canucks St. Louis Blues Sammy P




NBA Betting Free Play: Washington Wizards at Brookyn Nets

04.15.2013     02:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington +5.5 at Brooklyn O/U 190.5
Recommendation: Washington


Don’t expect anything resembling the Nets A-game this evening. Brooklyn’s loss at Toronto yesterday locked them into the #4 seed in the East. Head coach PJ Carlesimo made it very clear following that loss that he’s more interested in resting his veterans than in going full throttle down the stretch. “We don’t need to get anybody hurt. We’re not playing for anything. Going forward now we’ve certainly got to rest some people.”

The Nets have no shortage of guys who need rest. Gerald Wallace has sat their last two games, not expected to suit up tonight either. Deron Williams took a nasty knee yesterday, a likely candidate to sit this evening, although it hasn’t been ‘officially’ announced yet. Joe Johnson has been battling injuries as well, another potential ‘sitting in street clothes’ Read more


Tags: NBA Washington Wizards Brooklyn Nets Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Miami Heat fit the profile of a champion

04.15.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Every year, prior to the end of the regular season, I write a column I call ‘Who Has What it Takes to Win the Big Dance”.  After Louisville’s NCAA Tournament Championship this year, we’ve seen future champions fit a specific statistical profile in 15 of the last 16 tournaments.  As a result of that specific statistical profile, I can simply go through all the contending teams, one by one, to see which squad has the best chance (or one of the best chances) to cut down the nets following six consecutive victories over a three week span.

I do not go through a specific statistical profile that predicts NBA playoff success the same way I do for college.  And while the NCAA Tournament is a relative sprint, the NBA Playoffs are an extended, two month long marathon; a war of attrition as much as anything else.  A race towards a four series, 16 victory championship requires talent and health.

We don’t see longshots winning NBA titles very often.  The biggest surprise teams to win a title in the last two decades – the 2004 Pistons and the 2011 Mavericks – were both deep, veteran, defensive minded Read more


Tags: NBA Teddy Covers Miami Heat




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Minnesota Twins

04.13.2013     07:38 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (Harvey) -130 at Minnesota (Diamond) O/U 7
Recommendation: New York


So the word is out on New York's Matt Harvey being one of the premier young arms in the game. In two starts, the big right hander racked up 19 strikeouts and allowed only four hits. I wasn't big fan of the Mets extending him last time out – they were up 7-1 and Harvey was at 95 pitches prior to sending him out for the seventh inning. This is not the type of arm you want to mess with. But for the time being we have a premium arm that in a few more starts will be commanding a premium price. Minnesota sends Scott Diamond to the hill. He had off-season surgery and was brought along slowly during spring training. With cold weather and a pitch count I'm not expecting a top notch performance from Diamond. Also note that shadows have a big impact on early season mid-afternoon games at Target Field. It is expected to be partly cloudy but if the sun peaks in, hitting Harvey could be damn near impossible. Read more


Tags: MLB New York Mets Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange




NBA Gambling Free Play: Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks

04.12.2013     11:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee at Atlanta -7 O/U 200.5
Recommendation: Atlanta


My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Hawks in their last game; a 124-101 blowout at Philly.  While tonight’s game doesn’t grade out as another Big Ticket opportunity, the situation favoring Atlanta remains strong as they face off at home against the slumping, injury riddled Bucks.

Hawks head coach Larry Drew was not amused following an ugly home loss to Philly last week.  Atlanta’s awful start defensively, allowing Philly to hit 16 of their first 22 shots, set the tone for the game, as Philly scored a season high 40 first quarter points.  Drew decided to rest center Al Horford, forward Josh Smith and point guard Jeff Teague on Saturday at San Antonio.  The Hawks lost the game by only two as 10.5 point dogs.

Here are two key Drew quotes: “Going back to training camp ... we've had to be a team that is gritty, a blue-collar team, particularly on the Read more


Tags: NBA Milwaukee Bucks Atlanta Hawks Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

04.10.2013     12:44 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LA Dodgers (Billingsley) at San Diego (Stults) +110 O/U 7
Recommendation: San Diego


This is a straight fade of Chad Billingsley in his 2013 MLB debut.  Billingsley came on strong after the All Star break last year following a 4-9 start to the campaign, but a torn ligament in his elbow cut his season short.  Billingsley avoided surgery, but his rehab has not been without problems, including a badly bruised index finger on his throwing hand from a bunting drill in spring training.  He finished the spring allowing seven runs in just 7.2 innings of work.  His minor league rehab start last week was equally problematic, struggling with his control in another subpar effort.  I’m not expecting vintage Billingsley tonight!

San Diego bounced back strong yesterday following a dismal 1-5 road trip to open the season – two series where they were outscored by a combined 40-14 margin.  The Padres lineup pounded out nine runs; their first Read more


Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Betting on or against NBA bottom feeders

04.08.2013     07:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been writing about college basketball fairly consistently since the Super Bowl.  Now that the calendar has shifted to April, it’s time to shift focus and start writing about the NBA.  With less than ten days remaining in the regular season, most of the prevailing focus is on playoff teams.  That’s why I’m writing this week’s column about the bottom feeders that have already been eliminated from playoff contention. 

Can we make money betting on or against these squads down the stretch?  Read on to find out my thoughts on a handful of lottery bound teams before I shift my focus towards playoff squads next week and beyond!  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.

In the 2012 season, the Charlotte Bobcats set a record for NBA futility, finishing the season 7-59 SU.  Their pointspread futility made headlines here in Las Vegas as well, as the Bobcats finished as the single biggest money loser in the league by a wide margin, a woeful 23-43 ATS. 

In 2013, the Bobcats didn’t set any records for futility, but they’ve still got the single worst SU record in the Read more


Tags: NBA Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Betting: Stat Notes for Final Four

04.03.2013     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are the statlines that we’ve been using through the Dance in matchup order for Saturday. If you’re new to the blog, we tried to paint a picture of each team’s skill sets and approaches by focusing on these stats:

Two-Point Defense

Rebounding Margin

Turnover Margin

Made Treys per game

Adjusted Pace Rankings as tabulated by Ken Pomeroy

In those first four, we used CONFERENCE ONLY data because that represents a good combination of sample size, schedule quality, and relative recency (ignoring stuff that happened in November and December). I grabbed those from the various conference websites across the nation just before the conference tourneys began. Pace factor was based on the full season because that’s how Kenpom posts it on his home page.

I haven’t done any tweaking to the first four categoreis since the postseason began. We’re using these to get an image of the teams, not to do any fancy calculations. Read more


Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Wichita State Shockers Michigan Wolverines Syracuse Orange



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 22, 2014 12:02 PM.