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Final Four Gambling: Las Vegas oddsmaker expects more Kentucky and Ohio State money
03.31.2012 07:42 AM
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A Tweet from LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay on where he projects the money to come in on for tonight’s Final Four. LVH is currently right in line with the market; Kentucky -8.5 O/U 136.5 and Ohio State -2.5 O/U 135.5.
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Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers offer last minute opinions on betting the Final Four
03.31.2012 07:30 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers was featured in Chad Millman's ESPN Final Four preview. Below is what Teddy had to say about both matchups.
Covers says: "I actually thought Louisville-Kentucky would be a little shorter at about seven. Betonline opened at 9.5, 5Dimes opened at 8. I honestly think that number is a little bit high. With Kentucky you are talking about four or five guys that could start in the NBA next year. The problem with that side is I don't think they can play any better than they did recently -- they were just lights out. And yet against Indiana and Baylor, there we were at the end and sweating it out. As good as they were and as well as they played, there is not a lot of value on the Kentucky side. Louisville is a great dog, 8-3 catching points this year. Look at the first game these two played: The fact that Louisville held Kentucky under 30 percent shooting in that game tells us that team has the potential to keep the game in check. I haven't bet it yet because I think we might see 9.5 in Vegas before we tip off."
Covers says: "In February, before the brackets, I wrote that I thought these two teams would play for the
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Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Ohio State Buckeyes
Kansas Jayhawks
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 3-30-2012 with Brent Crow and Erin Rynning
03.30.2012 10:05 AM
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Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning. Brent broke down Saturday's two Final Four matchups while Erin took care of the NBA card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Brent Crow - College Basketball Final Four
Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
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ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Final Four Betting Stats: Kentucky struggles ATS vs. better defenses
03.30.2012 08:49 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Taking a look at Kentucky's results against the top five defenses on its schedule. I used Ken Pom's defensive efficiency ratings. Louisville is currently the no. 1 team in the country at 0.84 points per possession allowed. Of the six games, the Wildcats went 6-0 SU but 2-4 ATS. Four of the six games went UNDER the total.
No. 1 Louisville (0.84 ppp allowed)
Result: Kentucky 69, Louisville (+10) 62; Under 136
No. 4 Kansas (0.86)
Result: Kentucky (-6.5) 75, Kansas 65; Under 147.5
No. 8 Alabama (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 77, Alabama (+10) 71; Over 130
No. 10 North Carolina (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 73, North Carolina (+6.5) 72; Under 156.5
No. 30 Vanderbilt (0.93)
Result: Kentucky (-4.5) 69, Vanderbilt 63; Under 135.5
Result: Kentucky 83, Vanderbilt (+11.5) 74; Over 138.5
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College Basketball
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Andrew Lange
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Final Four Gambling: John Calipari tells everyone to bet the OVER Saturday
03.29.2012 12:25 PM
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Louisville
vs.
Kentucky
-8.5 O/U 137.5
This is either the greatest bit of sports betting information EVER or just another basketball coach telling the media what it wants to hear.
John Calipari: “I think our game Saturday is going to be in the 90s. We don't want to be in a hurry to score, but we want to play fast. I think the games are going to be a little more jumbled up (in the Final Four) and the teams are going to go up and down. It should be exciting.”
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College Basketball
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
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Sportsbooks offer lines on women's college and pro basketball
03.29.2012 08:08 AM
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Article in
ESPN the Magazine
about betting on women's basketball – the best example of bet-it-and-forget-it we can think of.
"But in women's college hoops, the disparity between the three or four great teams and everyone else is too big," Kornegay says. "No one wants to bet those games unless it is a marquee matchup. There is no edge."
"Pros assume they are betting something off the beaten path, but we pay attention to it," Kornegay says. "It is just another gambling event we can offer. One in which we all think there is an opportunity."
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Betting handle on March Madness surpasses Super Bowl
03.28.2012 07:55 AM
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Reports say that the
betting handle
generated from March Madness has surpassed that of the Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Not entirely shocking considering how many postseason college basketball games there are for bettors to wager on.
“You take all those games and combine them all, it surpasses what we take in on the Super Bowl,” Kornegay says. “It’s 67 games, as opposed to one game.”
But the state's legalized sports books typically see a $100 million jump in total basketball betting every March, Streshley says.
In 2011, gamblers wagered $256.6 million on college/pro basketball in March vs. $114.3 million in February. With the Big Dance wrapped over by early April, the basketball handle for that month then dropped back to $78.2 million.
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College Basketball
NFL
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NIT Betting Notes: Madison Square Garden has a way of holding offenses in check
03.27.2012 12:21 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Some notes regarding tonight’s two semifinal matchups in the NIT. Bettors who have been following these secondary tournaments have either been making money playing OVERS or living under a rock. But based on some of the historical results, I refrained from pulling the trigger on tonight’s two games. In fact, I made half-unit plays on the UNDER after some research. You’ll notice that like clockwork, both games were bet OVER the total just like every other NIT, CBI and CIT game. Here are some of the numbers I found…
The last 14 semifinal matchups at Madison Square Garden produced the following game scores: 123, 119, 131, 135 (OT), 138, 126, 150, 144, 125, 135, 141, 109, 142, and 128. That comes out to about 132 points per game. Only two of those contests went over 143 (Minnesota-Washington total) and one over 149 (UMass-Stanford total).
In terms of O/U numbers, I went back the last 10 semifinal matchups and got 3-7 O/U. But perhaps even more impressive than 70% UNDERS is the manner in which they cashed. The seven UNDERS were by margins of 22, 10.5, 15, 12, 18, 20.5 and 27! That is crazy and certainly not random. And the situations were
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College Basketball
Washington Huskies
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Stanford Cardinal
UMass Minutemen
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Tournmanet Betting: Final Four Against the Spread Notes
03.27.2012 06:37 AM
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Submitted by
The Final Four in New Orleans is set as no. 1 seed Kentucky, no. 2 Ohio State, no. 2 Kansas and no. 4 Louisville light up the Superdome. The Elite Eight had some super finishes and tight contests with three of the four games landing within five points of the poinspread. The Kansas–North Carolina game had a one-point margin with 3+ minutes to go before the Jayhawks finished the game on a 12-0 run to pull away for the win.
The Sweet Sixteen also had many close contests with all four games last Friday landing within five points of the pointspread. Of the 12 games last week, eight landed within five points of the line. During the course of the college basketball season, 40% of all games landed within five points of the betting line, so you can see how tight the numbers are as the tournament progresses.
With that said, here are some Final Four Against-the-Spread (ATS) notes. Since 1998, the better seeded team is 21-8 SU and 22-7 ATS. Teams seeded no. 4 or worse are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS if they are playing a better seeded team. Top-seeded no. 1 teams taking on a worse seed are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS the past 14 years including 11-3 ATS if favored by -8 or
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College Basketball
Kentucky Wildcats
Kansas Jayhawks
Ohio State Buckeyes
Louisville Cardinals
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' NCAA Tournament Final Four Betting Preview
03.26.2012 10:26 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Over the last two weeks we’ve seen 64 NCAA Tournament teams get eliminated from the field, leaving only the Final Four remaining with a chance to cut down the nets in New Orleans next Monday.
College hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy breaks down the four teams chances to win the title as follows: Kentucky 42%, Ohio State 34%, Kansas 17% and Louisville 7%. From my perspective, if John Calipari’s Wildcats play as well next weekend as they did this past weekend, that 42% chance of a title looks pretty darn low.
That being said, it’s going to be very hard for Kentucky to match their near flawless offensive performances in wins over Baylor and Indiana. The Wildcats have scored a ridiculous 220 points in their last 163 possessions; a 1.35 points per possession ratio. Those are not sustainable numbers, even for a team that closed out the weekend ranked #2 in the country (behind only Missouri) with 1.17 points per possession average.
Both Final Four games are rematches of non-conference affairs from earlier in the season. The talking heads on TV are sure to bring up this angle ad nauseum, but the bottom line is that neither affair had a
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College Basketball
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Kansas Jayhawks
Ohio State Buckeyes
Teddy Covers
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