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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Boston College Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers

12.04.2013     12:25 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Boston College +4 at Purdue O/U 151.5
Recommendation: Boston College

Purdue hasn't done much of anything this year to be deserving of this price range for tonight's game against Boston College. The Boilermakers struggled against the likes of Northern Kentucky, Rider, Siena (twice), and also lost outright by 15 points to a bottom-tier Washington State squad. Head coach Matt Painter on his team's struggles: “I’ve never, as an assistant or a head coach, been with a team that can show such promise in one half and the other half lose their focus or not make winning basketball plays, not tough it out on a certain possession,” to this extent, Painter said. “It’s a hard thing, and it’s a positive that you show that you can be successful, but it’s also a negative in terms of when things don’t go your way, you’re not able to right the ship. You have to show more consistency.”

The reason for the inconsistency as well as last year's sub .500 finish is easy to pinpoint – Painter just doesn't have the talent he's accustoming to working with in West Lafayette.

Boston Read more

Tags: College Basketball Boston College Eagles Purdue Boilermakers Andrew Lange

NFL Betting Recap: Numbers and Notes From Thanksgiving Football

11.29.2013     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Hope everyone had a great holiday. Let’s run the numbers from the three NFL games plus Texas Tech/Texas…

Detroit (-6.5) 40, Green Bay 10

G. Bay: 126 yards, 3.0 per-play, 3 turnovers, 20% third downs

Detroit: 561 yards, 7.1 per-play, 4 turnovers, 75% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: Green Bay 24, Detroit 241

Passing Stats: Green Bay 10-20-1-102, Detroit 22-35-2-320

Drive Points: Green Bay 0, Detroit 24

Stat Score: Green Bay 7, Detroit 36

Sloppiness: Green Bay 25, Detroit 33

(Apparently it’s impossible to play well on a Thursday morning when you had to go overtime against a divisional rival the prior Sunday afternoon. Green Bay’s stats here are so bad that it boggles the mind. Their only TD came on a fumble return by the defense---Detroit is still a sloppiness machine even in blowout victories! You don’t see numbers like this in the NFL Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 13

11.28.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had time to put together a larger preview report than normal. What you see below are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get as clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.

Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by turnover differential in the second parenthesis…

Thanksgiving Games

Green Bay: 16.3 on offense, 14.7 on defense (30-24) (-5 turnovers)

Detroit: 17.5 on offense, 15.6 on defense (26-17) (-7 Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines

11.27.2013     01:48 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Ohio State at Michigan
Saturday, 9 am PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Ohio State -14 O/U 58
CRIS Current: Ohio State -14.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio State -14
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Ohio State

To say that the Buckeyes have a special chip on their shoulder this week is something of an understatement.  That’s very bad news for the Wolverines, especially when we consider Michigan’s significant offensive decline as the season has progressed.

The last time Ohio State visited the Big House, Michigan hung 40 on the Buckeyes in a win that snapped a seven game skid for the Wolverines.  Ohio State got right back on track last year, with a win and cover against Michigan in Columbus.  This series is still called a rivalry but it really hasn’t been much of a rivalry since Lloyd Carr left town.

Ohio State won’t take prisoners in this Read more

Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat

11.25.2013     12:30 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Phoenix +12 at Miami O/U 201
Recommendation: Phoenix

Phoenix has been the single best pointspread team in the NBA this year; suffering only two ATS losses in their first 13 games. The Suns were widely expected to tank this season; priced as a true bottom feeder. But that simply hasn’t been the case – they’re tied for the #8 seed in the West with Memphis right now.

Suns forward Channing Frye summed it up: “We're just having fun out there….When you start losing everything you start to get real tight, so we can't be like that. We just have to get out there and have fun."

The Suns opened this road trip with a pair of SU wins on the highway.  They’ve also won SU at New Orleans, and lost at Portland by a single point; a team I have no hesitation supporting in this ‘road dog’ role.  Phoenix is happy, confident and still undervalued going into Miami tonight.

When the Heat bring their a-game, they can beat a team like Phoenix by margin.  But Miami isn’t playing to win games against second tier foes in November – they’re playing for a fourth Read more

Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Miami Heat Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Seton Hall Pirates

11.22.2013     08:41 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Oklahoma vs. Seton Hall
Recommendation: Seton Hall

Let's take a look at the Seton Hall Pirates as they take the short trip over to Brooklyn to face a very young Oklahoma squad. Last year was a tough one for Kevin Willard and the Hall as a rash of injuries left the team with little chance in Big East play (3-15). This year they're off to a 3-1 start with a loss in double overtime at Mercer. The Bears are certainly no slouch after winning 24 games a year ago including victories over Florida State, Alabama, and Tennessee on the road. They returned four starters from that group so I actually give credit to Seton Hall for their performance. Also have to like that Seton Hall is averaging over 38 free throws per game – a lot of these early season games have been decided by who wins the trips the charity stripe battle. As mentioned, OU is a very young team and showed well to open the season with a win over Alabama. But I'm not very high on the Crimson Tide and the Sooners were catching +4 in that contest and now laying over a bucket. I also read a somewhat interesting article about Oklahoma's feelings on the tournament and the focus seemed to be on the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Oklahoma Sooners Seton Hall Pirates Andrew Lange

College Football Handicapping: Week 13 Injury Report

11.21.2013     04:26 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Utah quarterback Travis Wilson is out for the rest of the season and his career could be in jeopardy after he sustained a concussion two weeks ago in a 20-19 home loss to Arizona St. Wilson finished 2013 with a 16-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Utes’ sophomore Adam Schulz started in last week’s 44-21 loss at Oregon, completing 13-of-30 passes for 181 yards with one TD and one interception. In four games this year, Schulz has connected on just 35-of-75 throws (46.7%) for 428 yards with a 2-2 TD-INT ratio.

Florida QB Tyler Murphy is ‘questionable’ vs. Georgia Southern due to a shoulder injury. Making his first career start and taking his first snap at the collegiate level last week, Sklyer Mornhinweg completed 10-of-13 passes for 107 yards in a 19-14 loss at South Carolina. UF didn’t put too much on his plate with most of his throws consisting of screen passes and short patterns. However, the redshirt freshman should be credited for being accurate and only making one mistake, an interception on the final drive with just over one minute remaining. The Gators are favored by 28 against the Eagles.

Missouri QB James Franklin is Read more

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards

NFL Gambling: Pass interference continues to have big impact on outcomes

11.21.2013     11:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article from the Wall Street Journal on the NFL and pass interference. Defensive PI calls are obviously on the rise due to more passing but the rate of offensive PI calls remains similar to that of past seasons.

"It's a big grey area," said McCaffrey. He said the reason a penalty is not called more often is that the move is nearly impossible to decipher. He said it's hard for referees to distinguish receiver-created "picks" from contact initiated by defenders, who are allowed to get physical at the line of scrimmage. He said two things are key for the offense to avoid a penalty: Don't throw a forearm or otherwise make upper-body contact, and after setting a pick, at least pretend to run a route.

Tags: NFL

College Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers

11.20.2013     01:05 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Texas A&M at LSU
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
LSU -4 O/U 70
CRIS Current: LSU -4.5 O/U 70.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: LSU -3
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Over

Although it has no bearing on the SEC West race, Saturday’s showdown between Texas A&M and LSU in Baton Rouge has implications galore for these two proud programs.

For starters, this is a recruiting game. Kevin Sumlin is starting to make inroads in Louisiana and Les Miles has always loved to work the I-10 corridor into East Texas. Also, the Aggies would love to avenge a 24-19 home loss to the Tigers last season.

On that afternoon in College Station, Texas A&M (8-2 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) raced out to a 12-0 lead but it could’ve been more. The Aggies had to settle for two field goals, missed an extra point and had a touchdown called back on one of the drives that ended in Read more

Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies LSU Tigers SEC Brian Edwards


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