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October

25

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MLB Handicapping: Breaking From the Gate...After the Break...

07.22.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It can be tempting to overreact to stuff that happens when Major League Baseball resumes after the All-Star Break. Fans and analysts are playing extra close attention since they spent a few days thinking about the pennant races and how various teams may care…or not care about the rest of the season. But, the tone is often set for what follows by that first weekend. We won’t overreact today…but we’ll take a quick look at how all 30 offenses performed this past weekend using our “four-max” approach.

If you’re new to the blog, that’s a methodology that:

*Only counts scoring in the first five innings

*Stops counting once a team has reached FOUR runs

We do that to reward consistent scoring rather than the occasional explosion that can come if the opposing starting pitcher just doesn’t have anything that day…nor the lousy long relievers that replaced him. This started as an effort to gain context for Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: NFL Summer Review

07.20.2013     06:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Yesterday we reviewed Drive Point numbers and schedule strengths for the AFC (you can read that here if you missed it). Today, as promised, we’re back to do the NFC.

It was a really strange year in the NFC…and we have to talk about that strangeness before running the numbers. Those of you who have seen our estimated Power Rating scale in all sports know that I generally make 85 championship caliber…and rank everybody with that in mind. Last year, through most of the season, the NFC consisted of:

*About 6 teams who were 82-ish, and not consistent enough to make a run at 85

*About 9 teams who were 78-79-ish much of the time

*Arizona, who was well off the pace

San Francisco peaked at the right time…and rode that all the way to the Super Bowl. Seattle peaked late, and could make a legitimate case for being within arm’s length of 85 at the very Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: AFC Summer Review

07.20.2013     06:28 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stats Intelligence

Our main stat of focus last year in the NFL is something we call “Drive Points.” Those are points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. It’s a stat I’ve been keeping by hand ever since USA Today first started running boxscores that itemized scoring drives many years ago. They do a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to defining “true” offense and defense because:

*You don’t get credit for non-offensive points

*You don’t get credit for cheap field position points off of turnovers

*You have to drive the field REPEATEDLY to grade out well

Good offenses move the ball and turn their drives into points. Good defenses prevent opponents from doing that.

I don’t want to suggest this is “everything.” The risk/reward ratio as expressed in turnover differential is also very important. The Detroit Lions put up a lot of Drive Points last year, but turned the ball over a million times in the process. Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




CFL Week Three Betting Recap

07.16.2013     10:33 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 3 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter team-by-team analysis of this week’s action…

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU and ATS):
It was a case of déjà vu for Montreal in Week 3 with the offense being dormant yet again. The offensive line remained unable to execute their protection packages and blocking schemes and it resulted in another long night for 40 year old QB Anthony Calvillo who didn’t receive enough time to step up and make plays in the pocket. Montreal scored just 7 points offensively. The other TD came on a return of a blocked punt. The defense was solid again but when the offense is as brutally inept as they are right now, there is only so much they can do. The body language is getting worse from the players and from head coach Dan Hawkins who continues to look like he may be in over his head. Montreal received even more bad news after this game with the season ending injury to veteran right guard Scott Flory. An injury to one of the few experienced players on that beleaguered O-Line is the last thing Montreal needed as they prepare to head to Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Betting Free Play: All Star Game

07.16.2013     10:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
2013 MLB All Star Game:
NL -115, O/U 8
Recommendation: Take the Under


The American League has been the better league, top-to-bottom, for more than a decade. This shows in a variety of ways. The AL is more than 200 games over .500 in interleague play since 1997. They’ve been at least ten games over .500 in interleague play in every year since 2005. The AL went 142-110 against the NL last year, and here in 2013, the AL has gone 107-94 thusfar, well on their way to another winning record.

Yes, the NL has won each of the last three World Series. But a longer term look shows the AL emerging victorious 12 times in the last 21 Fall Classics – no edge for the NL in that department either.

Of course, this column is about the 2013 All Star Game, not which league is better overall. The last three All Star games have all been won by the NL, and none of them have been particularly close, with the senior circuit outscoring their counterparts by a combined score of 16-2 in those games. That being said, a longer sample size here offers very different results. Prior to the All Star Game wins over the Read more


Tags: MLB Teddy Covers All Star Game Free Play




Teddy Covers Las Vegas Wise Guys Report: NFL Season O/U Wins

07.15.2013     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve written a couple of columns about the first NFL win totals posted here in Las Vegas. Now that the betting markets are starting to mature, it’s time to take another look at the Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams for the coming year. This week’s focus is on strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign.

I closed out my last column on NFL win totals by looking back at last year’s final strength of schedule, based on my power rating numbers for each opponent on the week that the game was played. Here was my final assessment:

“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for 2013.”

That Read more


Tags: NFL Season Wins Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling Free Pick: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

07.14.2013     09:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco (Zito) +130 at San Diego (Stults) O/U 8
Recommendation: San Francisco


My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket winner with the Giants on Friday in their 10-1 blowout over the Padres. And we cashed another winner supporting San Francisco last night with Tim Lincecum’s no hitter in a 9-0 laugher. There’s absolutely no reason to think the slumping Padres are going to break out of their extended funk this afternoon either.

Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:

“For all the struggles that the Giants have endured over the past few weeks, this team is still very much in contention in the NL West, trailing vulnerable division leader Arizona by only 6.5 games. The defending World Series champs have been here before – at the end of an extended slump AND on the outside looking in at the playoff picture past the halfway point of the season. There’s money Read more


Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants San Diego Padres Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Take a closer look at home field advantage

07.13.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

When I ran an early estimate of market ratings for college football a few weeks ago, I noted that I generally use a standard 3 points for home field advantage, just like I do in the NFL. A few people have asked me about that, the most recent being by way of twitter early today when @BigDings asked “Shouldn’t HFA be different for a lot of teams, and not always just a standard three points?”

There are different schools of thought about this. And those schools have some contempt for each other. In a nutshell:

*One school says that OBVIOUSLY some teams enjoy much bigger home field advantages than others, so you should account for that in your process. Teams with bigger home field edges should get 4 or even 5 points. Teams who gain little advantage could get as little as 0 or even 1 if they don’t have much talent and don’t draw home Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Belize players were asked to fix match vs. U.S.

07.11.2013     11:23 AM     Printer Friendly
Reports have surfaced of a failed match fixing attempt involving Belize's National Team. A couple of players were allegedly approached by someone offering them money to help fix a game they would eventually lose 6-1 to the US National Team.


"He started talking that we don't really stand a chance to beat the U.S so he wanted us to promise him that we would lose the game and that he would give us a large amount of money to change our lives in Belize and to help our families. Then as he said that my entire features changed and I just felt a different way, I felt really uncomfortable just to be around the guy because I was already aware about the 'match fixing' and I know that I could get banned for life. He saw that my features changed and he saw that we weren't into it so he got frightened and took out a large amount of money to bribe us, a lot of hundred and fifty dollar bills and threw it at us on the table and told us to keep it and to not say anything and to keep the money. Like I told him, 'we can't take that money' because at the end of Read more



Tags: Soccer




MLB Gambling Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

07.11.2013     11:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Westbrook) at Chicago Cubs (Jackson) +115 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Chicago


The Cubs were 18-30 on May 26th.  Since that time, they’ve gone 22-19, despite being favored only eight times in their last 41 games, a major source of profits for their supporters.  Clearly, the betting markets have been slow to adjust to Chicago’s dramatically improved play!

Yes, the Cubs got absolutely annihilated by the Angels last night, but a matchup against their biggest rival should help wipe away the loss rather quickly.  Let’s not forget that Chicago has gone 6-1 in their last seven tries following a defeat; bouncing back strong on a consistent basis.

St. Louis comes into the game on a five game winning streak courtesy of the two weakest teams in baseball – they’ve feasted at home on the Marlins and Astros.  But the Cardinals were 3-8 in their previous eleven games, and they’ve lost each of their last three series Read more


Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 25, 2014 06:03 PM.