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MLB Handicapping: 5-Inning Tie Percentage by Stadium

06.20.2013     08:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence (a must follow on Twitter)

One of the fun challenges of trying to make smart selections on 5-inning Major League baseball props involves deciding whether or not to lay a half a run with less vigorish on favorites…or to take a half run for a less favorable payoff on underdogs.

Quick examples:

*A favorite in the -170 range might strike you as kind of pricey, even if there are clear edges that would suggest superiority within a five-inning sprint (and those would obviously have to exist for a team to be favored by that much!). You have the option of instead taking that favorite -0.5 runs and laying only around -120. Feels a lot cheaper because -120’s much better than -170. But, is it? How much is that half a run worth?

*An underdog in the +120 to +130 range will often make sense to be competitive within the first five. Does “competitive mean a lot of 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 ties? If so, Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Colorado's Roy Oswalt back on the bump

06.20.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado (Oswalt) at Washington (Zimmermann) -170 O/U 7

Roy Oswalt makes his return tonight in Washington after making five starts at Double-A (33.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, 25 Ks, 7 BBs, 5 HRs). According to one report, Oswalt's fastball was "consistently at 92 mph" and got as high as 95. In another, Oswalt himself admitted he more of a "91-92" guy and no longer "94." Not sure he's got the stuff to succeed in Coors Field at this stage in his career but tonight's matchup is one he should be able to handle.


"He's always a competitive guy, a tough at-bat," Weiss said. "He's a nice piece to have. He's ready to go. His velocity is real good and throwing all his pitches. "He's done just about everything in this game, pitched in big Read more



Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Washington Nationals




MLB Gambling Free Play: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

06.19.2013     11:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (Marcum) at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Atlanta -1.5 +120


After getting swept by the Mets yesterday, Atlanta was in no laughing mood.  They are in danger of losing their first series at home all year if they can’t notch the win today; an MLB best 24-10 on this field this year.  17 of those 24 wins have come by multi-run margins; consistent moneymakers at home when laying -1.5 on the run line.

Even after yesterday’s sweep, the Mets are 17-31 in their last 48 ballgames.  Starter Shaun Marcum is coming off a beating at the hands of the Cubs, the seventh time in his last ten starts that he’s notched only four or fewer strikeouts.  He’s winless in three previous tries on this field, and the suspect Mets bullpen behind him was used extensively in yesterday’s doubleheader. 

Braves starter Kris Medlen has owned the Mets lineup.  In 16 outings against New York he’s never lost a game, Read more


Tags: MLB New York Mets Atlanta Braves Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An in-depth look at the Kansas City Chiefs

06.17.2013     10:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s never too early to start talking NFL. While the casual bettor may not pay attention until the start of the preseason in August, the wiseguys here in Vegas have already done their homework, ready to take advantage of early NFL betting opportunities as they present themselves over the next few months.

I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that isn’t happening quickly – most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. So, instead of writing about season wins over the next two weeks, I’ll be writing about two teams that set the tone for the entire market – the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

I’ve chosen the Chiefs and the Ravens very specifically, because those two teams are the best examples of what the market looks for when adjusting power ratings way up or way down from one season to the next. Why are the markets so high on Kansas City and so low on Baltimore to enter the 2013 preseason? Read on to find out. This week, I’ll take an in depth look at the Chiefs.

Kansas City Read more


Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

06.14.2013     11:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Jackson) +115 at  NY Mets (Marcum) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Chicago


Pardon my language, but what the hell are the Mets doing as favorites against anybody right now?  Since opening up the season with a 10-9 record (7-4 at Citi Field), New York has played like the team everyone expected them to be coming in to the season – a bottom feeder. 

The Mets are 14-28 in their last 42 ballgames, including a woeful 6-17 mark at Citi Field – no home field edge here.  They’ve been favored five times over the past two weeks, and they’ve lost all five of those games. In fact, New York is just 2-8 in their last ten tries as a favorite; 5-12 in 17 instances as a favorite dating back to mid-April.  This is clearly not a team to lay chalk with!

Shaun Marcum is 0-4 in four previous home starts this year, and he’s notched only two quality starts in seven previous tries; a shell of the pitcher he was as a promising Read more


Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs New York Mets Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Do Some MLB Starting Pitchers Lack a Sense of Urgency?

06.13.2013     08:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I started thinking more about that question yesterday after reading an article called “Lessons from the Linescore” by former pitcher Pat Jordan. Rob Neyer on twitter provided a link to the article. It’s a long read…so pick a time when you have several minutes to read through it. The quote that jumped out at me…from the perspective of trying to handicap 5-inning baseball props…was this reference to Justin Verlander:

“Two years ago, I interviewed Verlander for a story and he told me he always paced himself in the first few innings so he could summon his 98 miles per hour fastball in the seventh and eighth innings. We argued about that. I told him that sooner or later opposing batters would get wise and attack his 91-92-mph fastball in the first few innings to try to knock him out of the box early before he could call on the Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Can West Virginia's Travel Woes Be Exploited in Golden Nugget GOY's?

06.12.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I haven’t even begun to prepare for college football yet, beyond that effort to reverse-engineer Power Ratings from the early “Game of the Year” lines that were posted at the Golden Nugget a few days ago. I was trying to remember if there were any notable tendencies from last year that might be vulnerable to early betting against those numbers…and the midseason collapse of West Virginia in Big 12 play came to mind.

West Virginia 2012:

*Had no idea what to do in the wind at Texas Tech

*Wore down physically from their new league’s aggressive up-tempo play

*Was exposed as weak defensively and on special teams tackling

*Only beat the league’s two worst teams (Kansas and Iowa State) in their last 8 games (counting bowl)

West Virginia 2013:

*Has to rebuild its offense almost entirely

*Can’t be optimistic about defense because offensive-minded coaches Read more


Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

06.11.2013     11:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee (Peralta) -110 at Miami (Turner) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Milwaukee


This game comes down to one single question – how much do you value starting pitching?  There’s no doubt that Miami has a real starting pitching edge in this game, sending impressive rookie phenom Jacob Turner to the mound to face off against the very hittable Wily Peralta for the Brewers.  But that’s the only edge the Marlins have.  In a pick ‘em priced game, I don’t think that’s enough.  Here’s why:

Prior to the season, Miami was lined as a 63 or 64 win team, expected to approach the 100 loss mark.  They’ve lived up to those expectations.  At 18-45, the Marlins have the worst record in the major leagues.  Only the Astros have a weaker home record than Miami’s 10-21 mark.

Milwaukee was lined as a .500 level ball club coming into the campaign (80 or 81 wins).  Thanks to a disastrous month of May Read more


Tags: MLB Miwaukee Brewers Miami Marlins Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling: Estimated Major Conference Power Ratings

06.11.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Golden Nugget posted its “Game of the Year” early pointspreads a few days ago. I thought it would be fun to take those numbers and try to “reverse engineer” what their Power Ratings must have been for all the teams from major conferences.

It wasn’t quite as easy as I had hoped:

*They don’t seem to be using a universal “3” for home field advantage

*They probably shaded some lines in anticipation of betting action

Also, I couldn’t find any games involving Duke of the ACC, or SMU…a new team in the Big East (or American Athletic Conference as it will be known). So, I can’t get every “big six” team in here.

For the most part, these hold up. If you just use three points for home field, you’ll typically be within a point of where the Golden Nugget lined their games. And, we’re so far in advance of the season anyway that any realistic Power Ratings are just a broad Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling: A bettor's guide to the American Athletic Conference

06.10.2013     01:52 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Raise your hand if you are up to speed on the details of the newly formed American Athletic Conference. No? Either were we until about five minutes ago, a couple of Google searches, and of course our good pal Wikipedia. For the upcoming 2013 college football season, the AAC will include 10 teams: Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, USF, Temple, and UFC. To add to the confusion, in 2014, Louisville will head to the ACC, Rutgers is bailing to the Big Ten, and East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa will join the AAC.

This year, each team will play eight conference games. Below are the games that will not be played due to the eight-game slate.

Cincinnati/UCF
UConn/Houston
Louisville/SMU
Memphis/Rutgers
Temple/USF

Like the Big East, all ten teams will have three bye weeks (Temple and Houston technically have two with Dec. 7 and "open date”). It will be interesting to see how the former C-USA schools handle the time off. Houston, SMU, and UCF had only one bye week last year. Also note that for this season, the AAC Read more


Tags: College Football



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