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NFL Preseason Handicapping: It's all about the information

08.06.2013     02:23 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Yesterday, Teddy Covers posted a great blog on tips for betting and beating the NFL Preseason. If you missed it, go read it now. A lot of what Teddy was talking about, particularly coach and coordinator speak and blitzing, isn't something we as bettors can handicap blind. And I strongly urge you not to bet the preseason based on past results. The real key of course is information. Some coaches spill their guts, some like to play coy, and some pretty much don't say shit. If you can find out how long the starters will play, the quarterback rotation, and/or the team's motivation if any, you'll likely win more games than you lose. Obviously there are other factors but when it comes to the preseason, you can never have enough information. A perfect example of this concept is this week's line moves. CRIS posted its openers a week ago and a vast majority hasn’t budged. The reason? No one knows much of anything yet. Two of only a handful of games that saw movement involve the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Read more



Tags: NFL Andrew Lange Teddy Covers




Las Vegas bettors have plenty of football contests to choose from

08.06.2013     12:00 PM     Printer Friendly
The Las Vegas Sun gives us the lowdown on all of the football contests for this season. Click here for the details.

LVH Supercontest
Station Casinos’ Great Giveaway
Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing
The Palms’ Pigskin Payoff
Boyd Gaming’s Pick The Pros
William Hill’s College Football Pick’em
William Hill’s Three ’N Out
William Hill’s Pro Pick’em Contest




Tags: NFL College Football Las Vegas




The sports betting world reacts to potential suspension for Manziel

08.05.2013     12:50 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Egads! Johnny Football suspended? You know what that means – hours of discussion about how much he's worth to the pointspread. The general consensus among a few Las Vegas oddsmakers is a full touchdown. A lot of sportsbooks aren't taking any chances as Texas A&M's Week 1 game against Rice has been taken off the board. 




Tags: College Football Texas A&M SEC




College Football Betting: CRIS posts Week 1 lines, rest of market reacts

08.05.2013     11:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Over the weekend, CRIS posted its Week 1 college football lines. For most bettors, CRIS's numbers are considered "ground zero" for the betting markets. Sportsbooks like BetOnline and 5Dimes will often times post early numbers with lower limits to drum up business, but once CRIS posts its lines, everyone else rushes to copy them. Below you can check out some of the discrepancies between 5Dimes (a fairly respected sportsbook) and CRIS (a very respected sportsbook). That doesn't mean that the numbers 5Dimes had prior to CRIS’s were "bad" nor does it mean CRIS's numbers are "good" – more than a few got hammered pretty hard. In fact, there were a couple instances where CRIS's opener moved towards 5Dimes' original number – before of course they copied CRIS. We're just illustrating the point that when it comes to football numbers offshore, offscreen, and Las Vegas, CRIS drives the market.

CRIS Opener: Bowling Green -3 vs. Tulsa
5Dimes Opener: Tulsa -1 at Bowling Green

CRIS Opener: Texas Tech -7 at SMU
5Dimes Opener: Texas Tech -4 at SMU

CRIS Opener: Michigan -34.5 vs. Central Michigan
5Dimes Read more



Tags: College Football




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason

08.05.2013     07:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a How to Beat the NFL Preseason article just about every year.  But this is no cut-and-paste from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically. 

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year.  Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.  

Part of the change is the pointspread itself.  What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5.  As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.

At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade.  Coach’s gameplans change over time, as Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers on today's The Las Vegas Sportsline

08.02.2013     10:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers will be co-hosting this afternoon's The Las Vegas Sportsline show on ESPN Radio from 2-3 pm PT. Here's a link to the live stream. Enjoy.




Tags: Las Vegas Teddy Covers




Longtime Vegas oddsmaker passes away

07.30.2013     11:22 AM     Printer Friendly
Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Rick Herron recently passed away. You can read about him here.




Tags: Las Vegas




No-name handicapper gets reality TV show

07.30.2013     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly
So CNBC has decided to put out a reality TV show on a supposed Las Vegas handicapper. The only problem, no one we spoke to has heard of this dude. Industry observer Todd Fuhrman offers his opinions on what has little to no chance of accurately portraying the life of a real sports bettor/handicapper.




Tags: Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Report Will Be Released Today!

07.30.2013     06:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Click here to purchase

copy_tc_nfl_o_u_2.jpg

Below is the written analysis Teddy provided to his clients with last year's O/U Win Report. He went 4-0-1 with his recommendations.


2012 NFL Season Win Total Report: Part 1

All lines in this report are current as of 10 AM Pacific on Tuesday, July 31st.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.  I used seven offshore sports books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker, Greek, Bovada, Grande, ABC Islands and WSEX ) as fodder for my ‘best available current line’, but there’s no reason to think that you won’t be able to find a better number elsewhere – line shoppers are routinely rewarded in the Over-Under win total marketplace. 

Each and every one of these numbers is also available at the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, but I used the offshore numbers in this report knowing that many clients don’t have access to the Vegas numbers.  It is VERY important to get the win totals posted on this report – a half game can make an enormous difference,

Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Handicapping the best and worst NFL secondaries

07.29.2013     11:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of those squads are lined at 8.5 wins or higher again this year.

The next grouping of quarterbacks isn’t as easy to establish.  I’d probably put the likes of Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Colin Kaepernick in this grouping; and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to include Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  Just about every one of those quarterbacks also plays for a playoff contending team.

The very bottom of the pecking order is also very easy to establish.  On my list, I’d include Christian Ponder in Minnesota, Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Mark Sanchez in New York, Jake Locker in Tennessee, Blaine Gabbert or Chad Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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