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May

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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
 
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: The impact returning starters has on the betting markets

08.22.2013     06:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Yesterday I talked about Phil Steele's impact on the betting markets. Today I'll discuss another factor that influences early season games and that's returning starters. Who is coming back is probably to first thing bettors look at when evaluating a team during the summer. And based on my experience, teams with "a lot" of returning starters get a lot more love in the betting markets than those with only "a few” returning starters. Before I begin note that there are many different definitions of “returning starters” but for the sake of argument, we'll use Phil Steele as our reference point since his publication is such a common fixture among the betting community. Keep in a mind, A LOT can happen over the course of three months and I've seen multiple examples where returning starter numbers in June were a lot different than in September.

I used the very arbitrary numbers of 17 or more and 10 or less when breaking down our returning starter "extremes." That gives us 31 Read more



Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Preseason News and Notes

08.19.2013     08:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. During August, Teddy records every game, then watches every first half on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week: AFC tidbits from the first two weeks of the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals – Boy this team looks impressive; a potential Super Bowl sleeper in a conference that has no clear no. 3 behind Denver and New England to start the season. This was a top 10 defense last year, and looks even better this year, positively loaded with the addition of Super Bowl winner James Harrison from Pittsburgh. Harrison was run blitzing and making plays in the backfield, now the inside linebacker in a 4-3, a new position. Lots of blitzing, worth noting in preseason! The position battles here aren’t huge ones – a battle for the starting center job (Kyle Cook is the favorite to win it) and battles for the second and third receiver after AJ Green. No three-and-outs while Andy Dalton was on the field; he did a great job audibling out of bad situational play calls

Buffalo Bills Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Vaccaro leaves William Hill for South Point

08.19.2013     06:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro recently left William Hill for a position at South Point. Vaccaro will be in charge of promoting SP's new mobile phone app.


“It’s obviously old school. It’s a very short conversation & a handshake,” asserted Vaccaro, who immediately left his position as director of public relations for William Hill sports books.






Tags: Las Vegas




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Betting markets react to OVER the total trend

08.12.2013     12:02 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
My numbers have the Overs 11-5-1 through the first 17 preseason games (counting Raiders-Cowboys as a push, although you could make the case that was an Over as well).

No 35.5's out there for Week 2 (the prevailing Week 1 number), not a single total at the opener below 38, with 13 of the 16 games totaled at 40 or higher.

And we're already seeing HEAVY early steam on one total: the Bills- Vikings Over, bet up from 40 to 43 this morning; the only line move of any consequence off the CRIS/Jazz/5Dimes openers. Vegas hasn't posted Week 2 preseason numbers...yet.

Went back and looked at NFLX Week 2 last year. 16 games, 12 were totaled at 38 or lower and only two were totaled higher than 40. Overs went 12-3-1 for the week (I graded Detroit-Baltimore as a push).

Clearly, the markets are noticing the trend.




Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: The evolution of football's opening line

08.12.2013     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In the modern era of sports betting, what is exactly is The Opening Line?  It’s most assuredly not a meaningless question.  There are many bettors who consider the opening number as an important part of their handicap. 

Long term winning bettors don’t bet bad numbers – if they miss their targeted strike price, they’ll leave the game alone.  So the opening number – or what they consider to be the opening number – holds significant weight in future wagering decisions.

When I first moved to Vegas in the late 90’s, there was no debate.  Joe Lupo, Bob Scucci, Doug Castanada and the rest of the bookmakers at the Stardust hung the very first numbers, worldwide.  When those opening numbers were first posted, the ‘Dust held a lottery to determine the order of who could bet first, second, third and on down the line.  Bettors coveted a place at or near the front of that line – it legitimately made a difference.

The Sunday Night lottery at the Stardust during football season was a spectacle to behold.  The book was packed; the energy electric in anticipation of those Read more



Tags: College Football NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers gives us the scoop on the 'official' College Football Week 1 opening numbers

08.07.2013     01:37 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Yesterday was the first meeting of the season for the legendary 'Tuesday Group' of professional bettors here in Las Vegas. We had a very spirited debate about what the 'official' college football Week 1 opening numbers actually are/were.

With different books posting very different numbers at different times, we decided a 'consensus' opening line was a better choice than using any one book. The initial variance is gone, and the spreads as of RIGHT NOW on 8/7 should be considered the 'market openers'. Track moves from today, not before!

Thursday, 8/29:

SOUTH CAROLINA -10.5 North Carolina
MINNESOTA -14 Unlv
BOWLING GREEN -4 Tulsa
UCF -21.5 Akron
UTAH -3 Utah St
Ole Miss -3 VANDERBILT
Fresno -10 Rutgers
Usc -21.5 HAWAII

Friday, 8/30:

MICHIGAN ST -26.5 Western Michigan
MIAMI-FL -32.5 Florida Atlantic
Texas Tech -6 SMU

Saturday, 8/31:

WISCONSIN -45 Umass
MICHIGAN -31.5 Central Michigan
OHIO ST -36 Buffalo
NC ST -13.5 Louisiana Tech
MARYLAND -19.5 Florida International
IOWA -3 Northern Illinois
NOTRE DAME -29.5 Temple
Byu -3 Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Preseason Handicapping: It's all about the information

08.06.2013     02:23 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Yesterday, Teddy Covers posted a great blog on tips for betting and beating the NFL Preseason. If you missed it, go read it now. A lot of what Teddy was talking about, particularly coach and coordinator speak and blitzing, isn't something we as bettors can handicap blind. And I strongly urge you not to bet the preseason based on past results. The real key of course is information. Some coaches spill their guts, some like to play coy, and some pretty much don't say shit. If you can find out how long the starters will play, the quarterback rotation, and/or the team's motivation if any, you'll likely win more games than you lose. Obviously there are other factors but when it comes to the preseason, you can never have enough information. A perfect example of this concept is this week's line moves. CRIS posted its openers a week ago and a vast majority hasn’t budged. The reason? No one knows much of anything yet. Two of only a handful of games that saw movement involve the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Read more



Tags: NFL Andrew Lange Teddy Covers




Las Vegas bettors have plenty of football contests to choose from

08.06.2013     12:00 PM     Printer Friendly
The Las Vegas Sun gives us the lowdown on all of the football contests for this season. Click here for the details.

LVH Supercontest
Station Casinos’ Great Giveaway
Station Casinos’ Last Man Standing
The Palms’ Pigskin Payoff
Boyd Gaming’s Pick The Pros
William Hill’s College Football Pick’em
William Hill’s Three ’N Out
William Hill’s Pro Pick’em Contest




Tags: NFL College Football Las Vegas



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