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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

06.04.2012     07:47 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Lohse) at NY Mets (Gee) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: New York

This is a clear case of two pitchers moving in opposite directions. After being practically unhittable to start the year, Kyle Lohse has returned to earth with a 5.70 ERA over his last four starts. During that span he allowed 35 hits in 23.2 innings with only 12 strikeouts. He was a tad unlucky with a .347 BABIP but Lohse's inability to miss bats makes it nearly impossible for him to perform at a high level for sustained periods of time. Meanwhile, Dillon Gee suffered from some bad luck in the early going with a .351 BABIP through his first seven starts. The difference was that Gee was missing bats with 37 strikeouts and only nine walks in 43 innings. Things have started to go his way of late however with three straight quality starts. I don't expect the Cardinals' struggles to last forever but this team doesn't have a lot of confidence right now. The Mets meanwhile continue to defy logic and are worth a play at Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Peavy's fly ball ways not a good fit for Cellular Field

06.01.2012     12:05 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Adding to Teddy's free play on the Mariners/White Sox Over, here are a few things that stood out to me. Of qualified starting pitchers, Jake Peavy has been the strongest fly baller in the entire league at just a shade under 70%. Yet despite that he allowed a respectable six home runs in 70.1 innings. If you look at a majority of the other extreme fly ball pitchers, their home run/fly ball rate is above 10%. Phil Hughes, Mike Minor and Colby Lewis are around 15%. Peavy's rate is 6.5% -- a mark commonly tied to ground ballers or pitchers like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver who spend most of their time in pitcher friendly parks. Obviously Peavy is going to struggle moving forward with these rates -- especially at Cellular Field. And we've seen some regression with two home runs each of his last two home starts. Note that tonight's opponent, Seattle, is averaging 4.7 runs per game on the highway. They've played the most road games of any team in Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

05.30.2012     08:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona (Kennedy) at San Francisco (Lincecum) -110 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Over

Playing OVERS at AT&T Park is a tough sell. This year alone, only eight of 16 games have gone OVER the total. But with two scuffling pitchers on the hill tonight and the key number of 6.5 available at multiple shops, I think the opportunity is ripe to step in and look that way. While everything went right for Ian Kennedy in 2011, the complete opposite has been true this season. No question he's been a bit unlucky (.317 BABIP) but what we are getting now is much more realistic than the 2.88 ERA and 3.50 xFIP of 2012. I don't see how we can all of a sudden trust Tim Lincecum. Reports have come out that he is close to turning things around but he hasn't thrown a quality start since April 28. In fact, he's thrown only one quality start all season. His strikeout numbers have been fine (58 in 53.1 IP) but walks have been a major issue (4 or more in 4 of his last 7 starts). If this were last season when Read more

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamonbacks San Francisco Giants Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Alert: Tampa Bay goes left-handed heavy vs. Chicago's Humber

05.29.2012     01:55 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

Note that Tampa Bay is slated to start eight left-handed bats vs. Chicago's Phil Humber tonight. Humber shows some pretty strong splits R vs. L this season (and for his career) as seen in the chart below. The price tag on James Shields is up to a -160 so bettors may want to look the way of Tampa's team total (4ov-111 at Pinnacle, 4ov-115 at 5Dimes).


Tampa Bay's projected lineup vs. Humber
1. Carlos Pena (L) .760 OPS vs. righties
2. BJ Upton (R)
3. Matt Joyce (L) 1.021 OPS vs. righties
4. Ben Zobrist (S) .797 OPS vs. righties
5. Luke Scott (L) .890 OPS vs. righties
6. Hideki Matsui (L) .840 OPS vs. righties lifetime
7. Jose Lobaton (S) No split, only 62 career at-bats
8. Drew Sutton (S) Stronger vs. lefties
9. Elliot Johnson (S) Slightly stronger vs. lefties

Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

Saturday MLB Free Betting Pick: San Diego Padres at New York Mets

05.26.2012     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Richard) at NY Mets -145 (Santana) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under

Let's get our day started with a free play winner in the totals market. Yesterday we talked about New York's Dillon Gee as someone who had pitched better than his ERA suggested. He delivered the goods with a 7 IP, 1 ER performance. I think the same can be said for San Diego's Clayton Richard who had a few hiccups early in the season at hitter-friendly Coors Field (8 ERs) and Citizens Bank (5 ERs). His command has improved dramatically with just six walks over his last five starts (11 his first four starts). He's always been a guy who in a neutral/spacious park can give you a quality start. Johan Santana has been a pleasant surprise this season with 53 Ks and 45 hits allowed in 50 innings. At home against a soft-hitting Padres lineup, he's in a good spot to succeed. Kind of odd that in this day in age we have two solid pitchers in a pitcher friendly stadium facing two mediocre offenses yet the total is Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres New York Mets Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: San Diego Padres at New York Mets

05.25.2012     07:23 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Bass) at NY Mets (Gee) -120 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under

Dillon Gee is an interesting case study. His ERA is currently a full run higher than last season's yet some of the numbers indicate that he is actually pitching better. His strikeout rate is up from 6.39 per 9 innings to 7.79 and his walk rate is down from 3.98 to 2.36. His BABIP of .331 and left on base pct. of 65.4% suggests he's been a bit unlucky. I'm not trying to convince the world this guy is a sleeping giant but when looking at tonight's matchup at home against San Diego, I feel confident Gee is in a position to succeed. San Diego's Anthony Bass doesn't garner a lot of attention but according to some of the numbers I use in my handicap of pitchers, he's currently one of the better starters in baseball. Don't think we'll see a 7.5 on this game, but under 7 at even money is worth a bet.

Lange 20* AL Central Game of the Year [Top Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres New York Mets Andrew Lange

Las Vegas' biggest jackpot winners

05.23.2012     10:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Las Vegas Sun lists some of the biggest casino wins of all-time.

2003: Dude wins $39.7 million on a slot machine at Excalibur. His odds were reportedly one in 16.7 million.

2003: Cocktail waitress wins $34.9 million on a slot machine at Desert Inn.

1998: Retire flight attendant hits $27.5 million jackpot on a slot at Palace Station. She had previously won $680K on a different machine.

2002: Woman wins $22.6 million on a slot machine at Bally's.

1999: Illinois man won $21.3 million on a slot machine at Caesars.

2005: A man hit the Megabucks jackpot TWICE at Cannery Casino. The first for $4.6 million and the second for $21.1 million. We'd be interested to know his system.

2011: Women cashes in on $12.7 million at Aria slot machine.

2011: Another big winner at Aria. This time a $10.6 million winner.

2012: Marine nailed a slot machine winner at the Bellagio good for a $2.9 million pay day.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Lange cashes in on his 20* Big Sky Total of the Year for an undisclosed amount.

Tags: Las Vegas

Free MLB Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

05.22.2012     07:51 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
LA Dodgers (Harang) at Arizona (Cahill) -140 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Everyone is pretty much aware that LA's Aaron Harang is a fly ball pitcher. And that isn't a bad thing to be when pitching at Dodgers Stadium, AT&T Park and Petco. But in hitter-friendly environments, Harang has and will continue to struggle. His career numbers at Chase Field look strong: 4 starts, 1.38 ERA, 1 HR allowed. But all four outings had the roof closed. Tonight it is expected to be open and that puts Harang in a difficult spot. When on, Trevor Cahill is a really strong groundball pitcher but he's been very inconsistent this season and hasn't missed a lot of bats with 31 strikeouts (and 21 walks) in 49.1 innings. Keep in mind two of his three starts at Chase Field were with the rooof closed. The one that wasn't he gave up four earned runs and a season-high 10 fly balls. Don't tell the Dodgers Matt Kemp's injury is supposed to bog the offense down. LA has scored 8, 6, 6, 6, and 6 runs its last five Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Arizona Diamondbacks Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Colorado Rockies have bottomed out

05.22.2012     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
In the month of May alone, the Colorado Rockies are 4-15. It only adds to what has taken place with this organization since 2010's late season collapse that saw them lose 13 of 14 to close out the regular season. Since that time, Colorado has quietly been one of the worst teams in baseball with a record of 89-129, -59 units. Pitching has played a big role in the organization's decline. In early 2011, we posted a blog about how the Rockies had it right by trying to develop young arms with good fastballs that produce groundballs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa. Juan Nicasio, Jason Hammel, and Jhoulys Chacin all showed promise. But only Nicasio is currently contributing to the team. They traded Jimenez to Cleveland – a move that for now looks smart. The Hammel for Guthrie trade hasn't worked out with Hammel throwing well for Baltimore and Guthrie (5.55 ERA) spending much of his time being injured or ineffective. Then you have De La Rosa and Chacin on the shelf due to injuries. Rookie Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Notes: Holy cow! The Houston Astros are playing decent baseball

05.18.2012     02:00 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
I've stated a few times on the Sportsmemo Podcast that the Houston Astros (17-21) have from a statistical standpoint underachieved this season. Hard to believe consider few if any would have predicted that in mid-May they'd be only four games under .500 and in fourth place in the National League Central. The Astros rank fifth in the NL in run differential (+0.3). That equates to a Pythagorean W-L record of 20-18. And it isn't like they caught a three-week wave of easy scheduling. Twenty-seven of their 38 games have come against teams above .500. And nearly 50% of their games (18) were against the National East – a division in which everyone currently has a winning record and all but the Mets have a positive run differential. On the flip side, the Astros have played just six games vs. the NL West – a division with only one winning record (Los Angeles) and four of five teams with negative run differentials. What does this all mean? I'm not sure, especially with such a small sample size. And despite overachieving (which for Houston is mediocrity) they are barely profitable on the season (+1.25 units) so I’d refrain from a “bet on blindly” philosophy. It Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Andrew Lange


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