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MLB Gambling Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

07.12.2013     09:54 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cincinnati (Arroyo) +125 at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Cincinnati

I've been anti-Kris Medlen from the get-go this season in part because there was no way he was going to be able to match last year's production. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his GB rate is down 10%. His current ERA sits at 3.45 but his xFIP is slightly below league average at 4.10. The key for Bronson Arroyo is the left-handed bat and while at full strength the Braves can cart a lot of lefties to the plate, they are without the services of Jordan Schafer (DL) and potentially Jason Heyward (questionable, hamstring). And I don't put much stock into Arroyo's home/road splits. Last season he was better on the highway whereas this year he sports a 5.70 ERA. To me, it's nothing more than randomness. This isn’t a perfect situation for Arroyo but the Braves are a free swinging bunch that at times has had difficulties with soft-tossing, breaking ball pitchers. Atlanta should be no more than a Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Atlanta Braves Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Podcast: Big XII Conference Preview

07.10.2013     10:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange previewed the Big XII and talked Season Over/Under Wins.

Today's segments
Rob Veno - Big XII Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Rob Veno Big XII

MLB Betting Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians

07.06.2013     08:39 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Detroit (Sanchez) at Cleveland (Carrasco) +135 O/U 9
Recommendation: Cleveland

Detroit's Anibal Sanchez was having an incredible season before a shoulder issues forced him onto the DL a few weeks back. Since joining the Tigers, he's managed to stay healthy but it is important to note that he does have a history of arm ailments including shoulder surgery. And he's been worked pretty hard this season with six starts of 113 pitches or more including 130 back in late May. In his last start before being placed on the DL, Sanchez's velocity was way down – how many times have we seen a pitcher placed on the DL and then return only to suffer another setback? To me, Sanchez is being priced today as if he was dialed in and 100% healthy which I don't think is the case. At home against Houston or Kansas City would be a more ideal situation compared to on the road vs. Cleveland's left-handed heavy lineup. I'm of the thinking that Carlos Carrasco will at some point figure things out. He's got Read more

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox

07.03.2013     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Volquez) at Boston (Lester) -185 O/U 10
Recommendation: Boston

Edinson Volquez continues to do just enough to make bettors feel like he turning the corner but his overall body of work is still flawed. Some of his peripherals indicate he's pitched better than his 5.50 ERA but walks and command are still and issue and tonight he faces a very patient Boston lineup (AL-leading .350 OBP) in hitter friendly Fenway. Volquez is certainly improved from earlier this season but don't underestimate the significant step up in class from facing the Giants, Dodgers, and Marlins to the Red Sox.

Jon Lester has had his struggles this season but has also faced one of the toughest schedules in all of baseball. The lefty just finished a five-game swing against Toronto, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa, and Texas. The numbers don't necessarily show it but he has pitched better of late and seems to be more confident in his approach. This isn't the San Diego lineup of old – they do have some Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Boston Red Sox Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Play: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

06.29.2013     07:30 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
LA Angels (Blanton) -145 at Houston (Lyles) O/U 9
Recommendation: Under

Earlier this season most bettors would have considered Joe Blanton and Jordan Lyles to be among the worst in the American League. But over the course of the last month or so they've performed very well and as a bonus still aren't highly regarded in the betting markets. For Blanton, over his last four starts we see a sparkling 34-to-3 K-to-BB ratio and 3.67 ERA. And he has a strong record against Houston this season (2 starts, 14.2 IP, 11 hits, 5 ERs, 17 Ks, 0 BBs). Note that it makes perfect sense that a crafty veteran who throws strikes would have success against Houston’s young and sometimes very impatient lineup. Lyles had a hiccup last time out (5 IP, 5 ERs) but it was at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out and that game eventually produced 20 runs and 29 hits. Outside of that, Lyles has really come into his own as he just reached the 300 career innings plateau. Two not-so-great Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros Andrew Lange

Sports Betting Podcast 6-27-2013 with Handicapper Rob Veno

06.27.2013     09:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob went through every game on the MLB card with host Andrew Lange. 

Today's segments
Rob Veno - MLB Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB Rob Veno

MLB Betting Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

06.25.2013     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Toronto (Buehrle) at Tampa Bay (Moore) -135 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

Quietly, the Tampa Bay Rays have MLB's best numbers against left-handed pitching this season. They lead all of baseball in batting average (.287), slugging (.453), OPS (.798) and rank second in OBP (.345). The reason for their success is in part because they have the ability to stack the lineup with right-handed hitters. Last week against Andy Pettitte, eight of Tampa's nine batters came from the right side – the lone exception was James Loney who for whatever reason is hitting .358/.940 vs. southpaws. The Rays ended up pounding Pettitte for nine hits and five earned runs in an 8-3 win. Toronto's Mark Buehrle has some fairly weak splits (.285/.339/.452) vs. righties compared to lefties (.229/.283/.410). He’s been in good form of late but I really respect Tampa’s team plate approach. They aren’t the most potent offense in the league but force opposing starters to really work and typically take Read more

Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks

06.22.2013     07:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cincinnati (Leake) at Arizona (Corbin) -120 O/U 8
Recommendation: Arizona

Mike Leake has been solid this season but I notice a few that suggest there is likely to be some upcoming regression. His left of base percentage is a tad high (82.4%) but more importantly he’s managed to cut his home run/fly ball rate in half from last season. He's getting a few more groundballs this year but to allow only 7 dingers in 88.2 IP is pretty remarkable considering Leake doesn't possess plus stuff. Also note Leake's competition. Of his 13 starts against the National League, 11 came against teams that rank 9th or worse (out of 15) in OPS – that very well could be tied to the HR/FB improvement. In his two starts against quality NL offenses (St. Louis and Atlanta) Leake allowed 14 hits and 7 runs in 12 innings. Arizona, while not as potent as the Cardinals and Braves, is a step up on class compared a majority of Leake's foes.

I thought the ship had sailed on Patrick Corbin but here Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

06.18.2013     07:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago WS (Axlerod) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) -120 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Now that teams are starting to get a second crack at Chicago's Dylan Axelrod, I expect his days as a full-time starter to be numbered. In his last two starts, he saw Seattle and Toronto for a second time and the results weren't pretty. Axelrod threw 5.2 scoreless innings against the Mariners back in early April and somehow did the same two weeks ago, however, he allowed a whopping 11 base runners in 5.1 innings. Against the Blue Jays last time out, he was pounded for 8 hits and 6 runs in 4 innings. Even more alarming were the nine walks in those two outings – a clear indication teams are being patient and forcing the soft-tossing righty to come in the zone. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has nowhere to go but up and even though I've read some positives and he's coming off one of his best starts of the season (7 IP, 3 ERs, 7 Ks) were still talking about a very fringe American League arm. After throwing 5.1 Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Notes: St. Louis Cardinals steamed for second straight game

06.13.2013     09:10 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -135 at NY Mets (Harvey) O/U 6.5

If you are into fading big line moves in MLB, you've got a great opportunity this afternoon with the New York Mets. Yesterday, the St. Louis Cardinals opened -147 at Pinnacle and were bet up as high as -190 before closing -183. In percentage terms, the Cardinals went from just under a 60% bet to about 65%. The books scored big as the Mets won 5-1. Today we are seeing a similar pattern as the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright opened -113 and shot up to -140 before settling in at its current number of -132. I was initially interested in supporting St. Louis – the Mets obviously aren't very good and Matt Harvey is dealing with some back issues. But as we approach mid-June, value becomes key. Games are no longer 20 cents off of where they should be, and if you aren't able to get down on a favorable overnight line, a majority of the "good" opportunities are quickly taken out. I've talked about it on the Sportsmemo Podcast that Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets Andrew Lange


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