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College Basketball Free Play: Duquesne Dukes at George Mason Patriots

12.21.2011     06:29 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Duquesne at George Mason -6 O/U 139
Recommendation: Over

Despite being the epitome of all "offense, no defense" Duquesne games continue to totaled in a respectable range. The Dukes obviously want to run, so much so that when they play games with 73 or more possessions, they've only lost once the last two years whereas when games register 72 or fewer possessions, they are nine games under .500. But the most telling stat is when Duquesne averages a point per possession or more, nearly all over their games the last two years saw 140+ points. On the flip side, when they fail to top 1.0 ppp, nearly all over their games end up in the 120's. So the question is can they top the 1.0 ppp tonight against George Mason? A close look at GM’s schedules suggests yes. For the last month, Mason has been playing a combination of slow paced, unathletic, offensively challenged teams. As a result, their defensive numbers look good. But go back to earlier this year Read more


Tags: College Basketball Duquesne Dukes George Mason Patriots Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Eastern Washington Eagles at St. Mary's Gaels

12.20.2011     02:15 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Eastern Washington +16.5 at St. Mary’s O/U 136
Recommendation: Eastern Washington

A closer look at St. Mary's schedule shows that winning by this type of margin may prove a bit more difficult with Eastern Washington the first halfway competent team the Gaels have faced since early December. St. Mary’s has won its last four games by an average margin of 27.8 ppg but as mentioned, they were against some of the worst teams in the country. Jackson State, NC A&T, Bethune Cookman and Kennesaw State have a combined seven DI wins – all of which against fellow bottom feeders. When the opposition was a notch better, St. Mary's beat Cal Poly by five and played even with Weber State for much of the game before pulling away late. And to open the year, the Gaels beat Northern Iowa by 16 but the spot was horrendous for the Panthers who had just won by 17 at Old Dominion two days earlier. Note EWU's interesting tactic last time against UCLA – a move that could potentially be in play tonight. The Eagles essentially went four corners with the hopes of shortening the game. The plan worked to a certain extent, but Eastern shot a dismal 26% Read more


Tags: College Basketball St. Mary's Gaels Eastern Washington Eagles Andrew Lange




Las Vegas Bowl Betting Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Boise State Broncos

12.20.2011     01:16 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

copy_bowl_preview_2011.jpg

Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs. Boise State Thursday, 5 pm PT – ESPN
CRIS Opener: Boise State -11.5 O/U 65
CRIS Current: Boise State -14 O/U 66.5
Rob Veno Power Rating: Boise State -15.5

Andrew Lange’s Betting Take: I was talking with Teddy Covers on Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast and asked him that if we eliminate all of the distractions and potential motivational issues for this matchup, is Boise State truly two touchdowns better than Arizona State on a neutral field? The clear answer was no, but unfortunately, as with most pre-Christmas bowl games, all of the "extra" stuff can have an enormous impact. The fact that ASU didn't represent the PAC-12 South in the conference title game speaks volumes to how much this team underachieved this year. Heading into November, the Sun Devils were 6-2 with road loses to Oregon and Read more


Tags: College Football Boise State Broncos Arizona State Sun Devils Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Pick: Georgia Southern at South Alabama

12.19.2011     08:07 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Georgia Southern at South Alabama -7 O/U 134
Recommendation: Over

South Alabama's offense has improved this season but the stats don't really show it. The reason is the Jaguars have really run the gauntlet in terms of tough opposing defenses. So far they've faced LSU, Mississippi State, Florida State, LSU, Southern Miss and UAB. In two other games, USA played three awful offenses in Alabama State, Alcorn State and Texas A&M Corpus Christ. As a result, their body work doesn't suggest that we should be looking to play over a moderate total of 134. But tonight is really the first time all season they'll play an opponent that can score at a decent clip and that struggles to defend. Georgia Southern is another team whose numbers are skewed because of the opposition. In three games against slow paced South Florida, SMU and EKU, the game scores and possessions were very low. But against teams that don't mind getting up and down the floor (Valpo, Wake Read more


Tags: College Basketball South Alabama Jaguars Georgia Southern Eagles Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Gambling: California's defense remains stout at home

12.19.2011     06:28 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
California continues to dominate opponents on its home court with current marks of 8-0 SU, 5-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U. What the Golden Bears have done defensively is pretty remarkable considering last year’s team ranked dead last in defensive efficiency (1.09 points per possession allowed) during PAC-10 play. The competition thus far as been somewhat suspect but the fact that no team has topped 60 points or shot over 45% at Haas Pavilion speaks to the extra emphasis head coach Mike Montgomery has placed on defending with a purpose this year. Tonight, Cal gets perhaps its toughest test against a seasoned UC Santa Barbara squad. The Gauchos lost in overtime to San Diego State and UNLV and were up by three at half at Washington only to lose by seven. Note that Cal’s defense seems to be at its best in the first half. In its eight home games, the first half produced over 60 points just once with an average of 56.8. Amazingly, those eight teams scored the following: 23, 19, 13, 22, 26, 15, 19, and 18. In the second – when Cal often has a large lead – is where we see things start to open up with five of the eight hitting 74 points or more and an average of Read more


Tags: College Basketball California Golden Bears Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Pick: Duquesne Dukes at Western Michigan Broncos

12.17.2011     07:06 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Duquesne -3.5 at Western Michigan O/U 145.5
Recommendation: Over

It appears we are getting some extra value with this total with Duquesne and Western Michigan off two low scoring, grind-it-out affairs against slow paced teams. The Dukes beat Penn State 66-59 in what was a shooting fiasco for both sides. The Broncos were involved in a similar affair, a 54-43 win over offensively challenged Southern Illinois. But I expect both squads to return to their normal roots of pushing the tempo and playing games over 70 possessions. Just in terms of comparable foes, WMU played to the following game scores: 158 vs. South Dakota State, 182 vs. Iona, 157 vs. Colorado and 173 vs. Detroit. For Duquesne, more of the same: 150 vs. UW-Green Bay, 157 vs. Akron, 152 vs. Valpo, 149 vs. UL-Lafayette, and 144 vs. Tennessee Tech. Combined, those nine games averaged nearly 74 possessions. Basically when these teams aren't asked to step down or up in class or play a team that Read more


Tags: College Basketball Western Michigan Broncos Duquesne Dukes Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting News: Breaking down the PAC-12 Conference

12.13.2011     02:28 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With finals exams upon us, the college basketball card is light so I'll be providing conference breakdowns throughout the week.

PAC-12 - I normally discuss the top teams in the conference and work my way down but there are no "top teams" in the PAC-12 this year. I think some have the potential to be good, but based on what I've seen, not much separates No. 1-No. 8. Record-wise, Stanford is on top at 8-1. The Cardinal have two solid wins over Oklahoma State and NC State and lost to Syracuse by only six. Their non-sexy style paved the way for six straight pointspread covers to open the season. That though led to a bloated -9 against NC State – a game Stanford won by four but trailed for about 33 minutes. Not a team I am particularly eager to back unless I can get a fair price. In California's eight wins, it didn't allowed over 60 points. But when the Golden Bears ventured outside of the state and faced Missouri, they were absolutely manhandled, 92-53. In terms of personnel, I really like this team – good guard play, size in the paint, decent depth. And even though they did it against weaker foes, if the defense can carry over to Read more


Tags: College Basketball PAC-12 Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Pick: Central Michigan at Minnesota

12.13.2011     08:37 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Central Michigan +17.5 at Minnesota O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Central Michigan
 
This price is getting a little too rich for the type of game I expect in Minneapolis tonight. Since the injury to Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota has slowed down its pace and produced four straight ugly wins in which the Gophers did a number on the opposition defensively. Last time out, they held bottom feeder St. Peter's to 47 points in a 22-point win. Impressive, but it is tough to consistently cover big pointspreads in such low scoring games. Central Michigan has showed more than I thought they would thus far. The Chippewas have scored a few so-so wins and have been blown out just once (78-49 vs. high powered New Mexico State). Last time out they blew a double-digit lead at Tennessee State so I expect a bounce-back effort tonight. They unquestionably will have a difficult time topping 60 points but with a total of 127.5, possessions are going to be limited and that Read more


Tags: College Basketball Central Michigan Chippewas Minnesota Golden Gophers Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting News: Breaking down the SEC

12.13.2011     07:48 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With finals exams upon us, the college basketball card is light so I'll be providing conference breakdowns throughout the week.

SEC - I wrote yesterday about Kentucky's strong under trend. You can read it here. Last year, playing Florida over the total was one of the more frustrating bets on the board. Billy Donovan had his hand in every play and the Gators averaged about 65 possessions per game. This year has been completely different. Florida has already played seven games with 70 or more possessions whereas last season only four games topped that mark. And there is no reason for Donovan to ask for a more controlled environment as the Gators average 1.19 points per possession – the top mark in the nation. Alabama opened the year competitively lined against Maryland, Purdue and Wichita and won and covered all three contests. Then for whatever reason, the Crimson Tide was priced as an elite level Read more


Tags: College Basketball SEC Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: Kentucky continues its run of UNDERS

12.12.2011     03:12 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dating back to last season, Kentucky has been one of the strongest "under" teams in the country and yet for whatever reason, oddsmakers continue to post their totals 4-6 points higher than where they should be and the betting markets add to it with heavy action on the over in a majority of their games.

During last year’s postseason, including the SEC Tournament, Kentucky went 1-6-1 O/U -- the lone over was by a mere point. This year, we are seeing more of the same with the Wildcats 2-6 O/U. The two games that went over were because the competition was so weak that Kentucky couldn’t help but score 87 and 108. But even in games where UK scored 81 (vs. St. John's) and 85 (vs. Penn State) they still failed to go over the total. Against Kansas? Not even close as the game closed 147.5 and Kentucky won 75-65. Last week against North Carolina, it looked as if we might see a high profile game involving Kentucky cash an over ticket with 81 points in the first half. Instead, the game bogged down and landed 145 with a closing total of 156.5 (it opened 150.5!).

The theme in all of this is not pace -- Kentucky is actually playing much faster this season Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange



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