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MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at Houston Astros

06.28.2012     07:38 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Cashner) at Houston (Keuchel) -110 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under

Two promising young pitchers who go about it in different ways face off tonight in Houston. For the Astros, Dallas Keuchel doesn't have a big fastball or premium stuff but instead is a soft-tossing lefty who has a good understanding of how to pitch. His first two starts on paper were not easy (at Texas, vs. Cleveland) and he allowed just two earned runs in 14 innings. Will his success last? I'm not sure, but I think he can be effective the first time through the league. And let's not forget, the offense he's facing tonight is hardly the Rangers or Indians. San Diego has an on-base percentage of .297 vs. lefties with only 10 home runs in 744 at-bats. His counterpart Andrew Cashner does have a big fastball and premium stuff but has at times struggles with command. He however walked only three batters in 14.1 innings during his recent stay at Triple-A. Houston too doesn't have much of an offense, especially Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Houston Astros Andrew Lange

Legalized sports betting in the United States: What does it mean for bettors?

06.26.2012     01:21 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Brandywine president Joe Asher wrote and pro-gambling article supporting New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's push for legalized sports betting. Asher obviously has an agenda – legalized sports betting could mean big bucks for Brandywine. And the article’s vanilla approach was probably premeditated considering it was published on – I highly doubt many readers made a 5-inning line bet today. But with sports betting being such a hot topic in the mainstream media, opinions like these – no matter what the motive – deserve to be dissected from someone who actually bets on a daily basis. 

Asher starts out by harping about the lack of protection for bettors using offshore sportsbooks.

These illegal wagers—placed through "street bookies" and offshore web sites—are unregulated, untaxed, and leave bettors—who simply want a little action on the game—totally unprotected. Legalizing and taxing sports betting is an easy way for cash-strapped states to raise Read more

Tags: Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

06.19.2012     08:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Wood) at Chicago WS (Peavy) -200 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

With yesterday's wind pattern (right-to-left and gusty) we saw seven home runs and 15 runs at Chicago's Cellular Field. With a similar forecast projected for tonight, I think we can expect more than a few balls to leave the yard. Jake Peavy has allowed a modest eight home runs in nearly 90 innings – a very fortunate stat considering his fly ball rate is around 67%. For a pitcher to be that heavy towards the fly ball, his HR/FB rate should be well north of 10% instead of 6.8%. His rate is slightly higher at home (9.4%) but I still feel that he's going to have issues pitching in this park with temperatures on the rise and his innings starting to mount. Chicago's Travis Wood hasn't been very impressive this year (4.58 ERA) despite a handful of favorable matchups (at Minnesota, at San Francisco, vs. San Diego, at Houston). This may be his most difficult start of the season as the White Sox like to hit the Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

Saturday MLB Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Indians

06.16.2012     07:43 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Burnett) at Cleveland (Jimenez) -130 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under

Cleveland has had ample opportunity of late with its left-hand heavy lineup to smack around a few average righty starters. In practically each instance, they produced next to nothing. In their last seven games, seven straight righty starters have combined for 44.2 innings and a measly 10 earned runs. Simply put, the Tribe can't hit these days. I've been saying it a lot of late, if you have a pitcher who is struggling, get him a start against the Pirates and for six or seven innings all will be cured. Baltimore's Jake Arrieta was so bad they put him in the bullpen. At the last second, he fills in for an injured Brian Matusz and has his best outing of the year (7 IP, 1 ER) earlier this week against the Pirates. Is Ubaldo Jimenez completely trustworthy after looking like his old self the last two outings (13.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 Ks, 1 BB)? Probably not, but the fact that he is moving in the right direction AND Read more

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds

06.13.2012     08:11 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cleveland (Lowe) at Cincinnati (Latos) -140 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

It is very hard to trust Cincinnati's Mat Latos at home against an American League lineup. Latos' transition from the weak-hitting, pitcher-friendly National League West has not been a smooth one. His fly ball ways (126-86 ratio) and tendency to challenge hitters up in the zone have resulted in a 4.85 ERA including 11 home runs allowed in 43.2 innings at Great American Ball Park. He's also had a tough time with lefties – something Cleveland has a lot of – with a .962 OPS. Derek Lowe has returned to earth with two of his last three starts being of disastrous variety. His groundball ways are a good thing to have in this ball park but with only 24 strikeouts in 72.2 innings, a lot of balls will be put in play tonight and any mistakes will be magnified due to the short porch in right field. Note that in four career starts at the GAP, Lowe's ERA is 5.09. Total certainly reflective of the mediocrity on Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Cincinnati Reds Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles

06.12.2012     06:17 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Lincoln) at Baltimore (Chen) -145 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Baltimore

I don't think Pittsburgh's Brad Lincoln has what it takes to be an effective starter at the MLB level. As a reliever he can get by and has actually been one of Pittsburgh's more effective bullpen arms prior to being placed in the rotation. But in his first start of the season he wore down and ended up surrendering five earned runs in a loss to Cincinnati. He even mentioned after the start that he was "gassed." A gassed Lincoln facing American League East hitters for a second and third time to me seems scary. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen has been solid this year and though some of his numbers hint that struggles may be down the road, he gets a reprieve tonight against a soft hitting Pittsburgh lineup whose on-base percentage (.279) is lower than Texas' batting average (.282) on the road. The price is decent enough to support the home side in this matchup.

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Baltimore Orioles Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Minnesota's trio of young pitchers are producing profits

06.06.2012     07:06 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
I spoke on yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast about some of Minnesota's young starting pitchers. Of the current three – Scott Diamond, PJ Walters and Cole De Vries – none are considered “highly touted” nor are they all that “young” being 25, 27 and 27 respectively. But while Diamond and Walters had thrown a few innings at the MLB level prior to this year, it appears that the trio has had somewhat of an advantage this season in facing various teams for the first time. Despite being 13 games under .500 for the year, the Twins are 10-4 +9.2 units when the trio starts. That is obviously better than the 10-21 record the team has when Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn toss. The problem though is how is the trio going to handle facing teams for a second and third time? Like a lot of Minnesota pitchers, Diamond, Walters and De Vries don't miss a lot of bats and have displayed average velocity. Combined, they've posted 53 strikeouts in 85 innings. That worries me when innings and fatigue start to become factors later in the season – assuming that they make it that far.

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Free Play: Texas Rangers at Oakland A's

06.05.2012     07:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Texas (Holland) at Oakland (Blackley)
Recommendation: Texas R/L +105

I'm not a big run/line bettor but I see value in supporting the Texas Rangers in that manner tonight in Oakland. Last night marked another mysterious loss for the Rangers as the A's hung eight runs in the second en route to a 12-1 win. If you remember a few weeks back, they were pounded by Seattle 21-8. Derek Holland started that game and allowed eight of the 21 runs. He'll look to bounce back tonight in what historically has been a much more successful situation. Last season Holland made three starts against the A's and allowed a total of three earned runs. The year before that, two starts and two earned runs. And like a lot of Texas pitchers, Holland's road numbers are far better. This year's home/road split reads 2.84 ERA/6.89 ERA. For his career, his road ERA is nearly a run and a half better. According to Holland, his last start was nothing more than a mental breakdown rather than something mechanical. For Oakland, Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Oakland A's Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

06.04.2012     07:47 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Lohse) at NY Mets (Gee) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: New York

This is a clear case of two pitchers moving in opposite directions. After being practically unhittable to start the year, Kyle Lohse has returned to earth with a 5.70 ERA over his last four starts. During that span he allowed 35 hits in 23.2 innings with only 12 strikeouts. He was a tad unlucky with a .347 BABIP but Lohse's inability to miss bats makes it nearly impossible for him to perform at a high level for sustained periods of time. Meanwhile, Dillon Gee suffered from some bad luck in the early going with a .351 BABIP through his first seven starts. The difference was that Gee was missing bats with 37 strikeouts and only nine walks in 43 innings. Things have started to go his way of late however with three straight quality starts. I don't expect the Cardinals' struggles to last forever but this team doesn't have a lot of confidence right now. The Mets meanwhile continue to defy logic and are worth a play at Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Peavy's fly ball ways not a good fit for Cellular Field

06.01.2012     12:05 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Adding to Teddy's free play on the Mariners/White Sox Over, here are a few things that stood out to me. Of qualified starting pitchers, Jake Peavy has been the strongest fly baller in the entire league at just a shade under 70%. Yet despite that he allowed a respectable six home runs in 70.1 innings. If you look at a majority of the other extreme fly ball pitchers, their home run/fly ball rate is above 10%. Phil Hughes, Mike Minor and Colby Lewis are around 15%. Peavy's rate is 6.5% -- a mark commonly tied to ground ballers or pitchers like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver who spend most of their time in pitcher friendly parks. Obviously Peavy is going to struggle moving forward with these rates -- especially at Cellular Field. And we've seen some regression with two home runs each of his last two home starts. Note that tonight's opponent, Seattle, is averaging 4.7 runs per game on the highway. They've played the most road games of any team in Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange


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