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December

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason

08.05.2013     07:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a How to Beat the NFL Preseason article just about every year.  But this is no cut-and-paste from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically. 

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year.  Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.  

Part of the change is the pointspread itself.  What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5.  As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.

At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade.  Coach’s gameplans change over time, as Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Indiana sees up-tempo as key vs. Big Ten

08.02.2013     01:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Not every team in the Big Ten likes to play at a pedestrian pace and grind out games. Indiana and Penn State ranked in the top 25 nationally in terms of plays per game last season. In Kevin Wilson's second season, the Hoosiers ranked second in the Big Ten in yards per game (442.0). According to Wilson, playing up-tempo is the best way to level the playing field against the rest of the conference.


"We understand that when we substitute, the referee gives the other team a chance to match that substitution," he said. "We also understand that when we don't substitute, we can go fast. I believe in playing fast. I believe in different tempos."

"Fans want to see points," Wilson said. "With HD TV, every league and the professionals, everyone’s worried about fan experience. Great defense, you want it, I don’t think every game’s gotta be a 42-40 shootout, but I don't think anybody wants a 1-0 shutout. I don’t think we're playing 7-3 football." 





Tags: College Football Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Texas Rangers at Oakland A's

08.02.2013     11:31 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Ogando) at Oakland (Milone) -131 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Oakland


The Rangers rotation has been a mess for a good portion of the season, with Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Nicholas Tepesch and tonight’s starter, Alexi Ogando, all spending extended stints on the DL.  In the midst of a pennant race, the Rangers are desperate to guy these guys back in the rotation. 

Ogando has made two starts since his seven week stint on the DL ended.  Neither start was good – high pitch counts, mediocre velocity, and an inability to notch strikeouts – as Texas went 0-2 in those outings. I’m not convinced he’s fully healthy.

The A’s have hit Ogando fairly well even when he was at his best, scoring 14 runs in 25 career innings against him.  And Oakland’s bats are in good form right now, pounding out six runs or more three times while winning four of their last six on this homestand.  With a 34-18 record at Read more


Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Oakland A's Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling News: Unspoken About Interleague Action

08.02.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You’re not hearing much this year about the big advantage the American League is once again enjoying against the National League. A few handicapping places have mentioned it. The networks tend to shy away from that stuff on purpose because it doesn’t promote the sport. You think the MLB Network wants you considering the NL as Quadruple A? ESPN shows a lot of games in prime time from that league, and “Boy, the NL is getting crushed again” isn’t much of a commercial.

With the Texas rout of Arizona tonight in a make-up game, the season series is now:

American League 117 wins

National League 100 wins

That’s 54% for the American League…which, at least for now…extends a multi-year advantage that has generally hopped around that mark. What hasn’t been reported at all to my knowledge is the following...

Interleague Games Played So Far

AL East 61

AL Central Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: American Athletic Conference Stat Day

08.01.2013     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Our final look at a mid-major conference features the new American Athletic Conference. It’s a 10-team league that currently features six teams from last year’s Big East, and four teams from last year’s Conference USA. You can see an emphasis on markets in the CUSA invitees. SMU and Houston bring Dallas and Houston into the fold. Central Florida is based in Orlando...in the heart of a sports-loving state and near the massive amusement park complex run by the company that owns ESPN. Memphis isn’t a megaplex, but it’s in a great football state while also being in an NBA city. The conference is hoping to grow into a big deal given that strategy.

It’s not really a big deal yet. Though, Louisville sure did the conference proud last year in the Sugar Bowl when they stunned Florida. The most surprising thing to me about the numbers you’ll be reading today is that Louisville didn’t look all that dominant by Big East standards. They played a lot of close games in a mediocre (or worse) conference before catching arrogant Florida napping and Read more


Tags: College Football AAC Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Minnesota's Nelson projected to start at quarterback

07.31.2013     08:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It looks like sophomore Philip Nelson will be the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Golden Gophers this season. Last year, they pulled Nelson's redshirt midseason and he played the final seven games of the season (873 yards, 48.7%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs). With Max Shortell transferring to Jacksonville State, Nelson is the only QB on the roster who has any game experience. The Golden Gophers return 10 starters on offense and are 14.5-point home favorites against UNLV in Week 1. UM's early season schedule sets up well with home games against the Rebels, Western Illinois, San Jose State and Iowa and a road trip to New Mexico State.


"I want to be healthy, and do whatever we can to win," Nelson said, adding: "I think we're going to stop making the quarterback run 15-plus times a game. But at the same time, if that's what it may be to win, that's what you've got to do."

"You've got to be able to be accurate and make the right decisions and just be able to utilize the players around me and let Read more



Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Big Ten




College Football Handicapping: ACC Stat Day

07.31.2013     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The ACC has expanded this year, with Syracuse and Pittsburgh moving over from the Big East. So, as we run through each category, I’ve included with those two teams did in the Big East last season. It’s tempting to say that you have to make mental adjustments because the Big East was worse than the ACC. But, there was so much mediocre (or worse) play in the ACC last year…that there may not have been much of a difference.

Louisville and Syracuse obviously did the Big East proud in bowls last year. There were two heads-up meetings between the Big East and ACC. Rutgers and Virginia Tech went overtime in one of the worst bowl games ever played. Cincinnati needed a few miracles to beat Duke by 14 points (they were about to lose straight up as 9-point favorites in the final minutes)…which is a strike against the Big East. Maybe dock the stats of Syracuse and Pittsburgh a smidge.

ACC Offenses (Conference Games Only)

Florida State: 7.0 yards-per-play, 19 Read more


Tags: College Football ACC Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Report Will Be Released Today!

07.30.2013     06:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Click here to purchase

copy_tc_nfl_o_u_2.jpg

Below is the written analysis Teddy provided to his clients with last year's O/U Win Report. He went 4-0-1 with his recommendations.


2012 NFL Season Win Total Report: Part 1

All lines in this report are current as of 10 AM Pacific on Tuesday, July 31st.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.  I used seven offshore sports books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker, Greek, Bovada, Grande, ABC Islands and WSEX ) as fodder for my ‘best available current line’, but there’s no reason to think that you won’t be able to find a better number elsewhere – line shoppers are routinely rewarded in the Over-Under win total marketplace. 

Each and every one of these numbers is also available at the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, but I used the offshore numbers in this report knowing that many clients don’t have access to the Vegas numbers.  It is VERY important to get the win totals posted on this report – a half game can make an enormous difference, Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Handicapping the best and worst NFL secondaries

07.29.2013     11:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of those squads are lined at 8.5 wins or higher again this year.

The next grouping of quarterbacks isn’t as easy to establish.  I’d probably put the likes of Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Colin Kaepernick in this grouping; and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to include Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  Just about every one of those quarterbacks also plays for a playoff contending team.

The very bottom of the pecking order is also very easy to establish.  On my list, I’d include Christian Ponder in Minnesota, Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Mark Sanchez in New York, Jake Locker in Tennessee, Blaine Gabbert or Chad Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Big XII Stat Day

07.29.2013     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Continuing our series of “stat day” summaries to mirror “media day” college football coverage. If this is the first one of these you’ve read. We’re looking at:

2012 Yards-Per-Play (Offense and Defense)

2012 Turnovers (Offense and Defense)

2012 Third Down Conversions (Offense and Defense)

2013 Returning Starters

The stats are for CONFERENCE action ONLY, so we don’t get pollution from widely varied non-conference schedules. I gathered them at cfbstats.com. The returning starter data was pulled from the Athlon publication, and may be a little outdated given recent arrests, injuries, suspensions, etc…

I’ve tried to link stats together in a way that helps paint a picture for each team. We start by looking at offenses…with an eye on per-play production within a successful risk/reward approach. Who can move the ball while protecting it? Who couldn’t move the ball? Who couldn’t protect Read more


Tags: College Football Big XII Stat Intelligence



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Dec 21, 2014 07:08 AM.