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October

23

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MLB Handicapping: Recapping Tuesday's games

07.10.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run through the results to update some recent Major League Baseball storylines we’ve been monitoring. Well take the games in market rotation order. If you're new to the site, we generally focus on what happens in the first five innings because there's a shortage of coverage in that particular betting proposition that's growing in popularity.

*Washington’s bats cooled off as soon as they stopped facing Milwaukee and San Diego pitching. So, there’s less reason to be enthusiastic about a surge into the playoff picture. The Nats are just two games over .500 with tonight’s full game loss. It’s probably going to take about +18 over .500 to grab a Wildcard (90-72). I usually use the four-max approach when talking about five-inning offense (capping scoring off at a maximum of four runs to diminish the impact of outliers). Look at Washington’s recent 5-inning statline if I leave in the real numbers: 1-1-5-8-0-0-3-8-3-11-0-1. Two 8’s and an 11! But, Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




Canadian Football League Week 2 Betting Recap

07.09.2013     11:00 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Teams that have won straight up have covered every single game after the first two weeks of the CFL season. The SU winner is a perfect 8-0 ATS so far this season based on the closing number. Here is my recap of Week 2 and quick hitter team-by-team analysis of this week’s action…

Montreal Alouettes (1-1 SU/ATS)
Who would ever think that Montreal’s offense would be the source of their problems? But it was just that in their awful 19-11 home loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo played possibly the worst game I’ve seen him play in his CFL career and certainly since he’s been in Montreal. It raises questions about whether the game has finally caught up to the 40-year-old veteran despite his sure fire future CFL Hall Of Fame status. The offensive line was just as inept though as the Alouettes failed to protect Calvillo throughout the game as Winnipeg registered seven sacks. The Montreal defense forced five Winnipeg turnovers and played a very strong game which goes to show just how pathetic things were for Montreal on the offensive side of the football. There have been rumors that Calvillo and new Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




The one where a nun walks into a casino to gamble with a bunch of stolen money

07.09.2013     06:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stories about God's “workers” stealing from the church till to fuel their gambling addiction never get old. This one involves a 68-year-old nun who pocketed over $100K. Sister Mary Anne Rapp will need to do more than a quick trip to confession to atone for her sins. She was sentenced to 90 days in jail and 100 hours of community service.








Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins

07.08.2013     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.  We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.  The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.   The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month. 

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.  Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.  You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: 5 Things I Just Noticed About The Big Ten

07.07.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve started preparing for college football. Which means…making humongous plans for what I’m going to try to keep track of only to find out in September that my eyes were bigger than my stomach. I’m at least planning to keep track of drive points (those scored on drives of 60 yards or more) out of the gate this season. If I get a bunch of charts made up for that in July and August, it won’t be too onerous a time commitment on the fly once games start.

Today I was playing around in the Big 10. Here are 5 things I noticed.
 
*Michigan only ranked #78 in total offense last year. There’s a lot to like about Brady Hoke. But, they were a consensus top 10 pick a year ago in the preseason, and only managed 8-5 against a schedule that included some auto-wins. Honeymoons go quickly in the Big 10. They did put up some points late in the year against Ohio State and South Carolina, after struggling for 6 at Notre Dame, 12 vs. Michigan State, and 9 at Read more


Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling News: Phillies close but not ready to quit on season

07.06.2013     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
At 7.5 games out in the National League East, the Philadelphia Phillies are at a crossroads in their season. It is an aging team that has had a difficult time staying healthy and some folks would argue that now is the time to start looking towards next year and beyond. General Manager Ruben Amaro came out yesterday and essentially said that if the team doesn't get after it during its upcoming 10-game home stand then break out of the white flags. So far so good as they beat the Braves 5-4 last night.


“This homestand is very important,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said before Friday night’s game. “We’ve got to play well to stay in contention, clearly. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team after this homestand.”

“It could,” Amaro admitted. “It could. I hope we’re adding to this club rather than subtracting. That’s the goal, but as I always say and I’ve been saying, the players will dictate it.

“These next 10 days are Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies




MLB Betting Recap: Cincinnati's Homer Bailey tosses second no-hitter

07.03.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds threw a no-hitter Tuesday night against the slumping San Francisco Giants. It’s amazing how all the arguing on twitter can come to a halt for something like that…everybody loves a no-hitter!

Bailey has now thrown the last two in the majors, having tossed one in Pittsburgh last season.

It was also a night for “no” from the five-inning perspective, meaning NO SCORING for a lot of teams. If you’re new to the blog, we tend to focus on five-inning action here because that’s a popular betting proposition in the markets (because it eliminates concern about closers)…and because nobody else is writing about it anywhere.

Tuesday:

*Philadelphia at Pittsburgh was 0-0 through five innings (Pettibone and Cumpton)

*Milwaukee at Washington was 0-0 through five innings (Peralta and Strasburg)

*Arizona posted a 0 in New York vs. Hefner

*Colorado posted a 0 at home vs. Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence




Canadian Football League Week 1 Betting Recap

07.02.2013     02:38 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 2013 Canadian Football League season got off to an exciting start which provided what would be the NFL equivalent of a bookmaker’s nightmare. All four Week 1 games went over the total and all four favorites (Montreal, Toronto, Calgary and Saskatchewan) got the win and pointspread cover. The 4-0 O/U mark and the 4-0 SU and ATS mark for favorites obviously won’t last but it will be interesting to see how quickly things change entering in Week 2. In watching all four games last week, the major thing that I noticed was a major bias towards offenses from the officials who had a tendency to award the majority of “50/50” calls for infractions taking place on passing plays down the field to the offense. I definitely noticed a major spike in pass interference and illegal contact penalties on the defense last week and those penalties combined to not only keep drives alive for the offensive units but also moved the football significantly toward the opposing end zone. Aside from the Saskatchewan Roughriders, defenses were owned by opposing offenses but neither that nor the officiating are identifiable traits that we should automatically assume will continue and Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




College Football Betting: Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.02.2013     01:25 PM     Printer Friendly
Below are the Big Ten's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. It's the last season of the Leaders and Legends divisions with Rutgers and Maryland joining next season to form the more logically named East and West. As for 2013, it’s Ohio State and everyone else according to oddsmakers and the betting markets. The Buckeyes are the second choice behind Alabama for the BCS crown at 8-1, -110 to win the Big Ten Championship, and a huge -465 favorite to win the Leaders Division. The schedule sets up well with six of OSU's first eight in Columbus and winnable road games at Cal, Northwestern, Purdue and Indiana. They do however travel to Ann Arbor to close out the regular season. As for the rest of the Big Ten, Michigan State and Wisconsin are slated to improve after 6- and 7-win seasons, respectively. The Legends Division looks fairly balanced with the Spartans, Nebraska, Michigan, and Northwestern all lined at 8.5-9.5 wins. The Wolverines are the slight betting favorite at +230.

2013 Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Big Ten Leaders
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Ohio State
12
11.5un-195
Penn State
8
8.5un-195
Wisconsin
7
8.5ov-210
Purdue
6
5.5un-245
Indiana
4
5.5ov-210
Illinois
2
3.5ov-160
Big Ten Legends
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Nebraska
10
9.5ov-130
Michigan
8
9.5un-135
Northwestern
9
8.5un-140
Michigan State
6
8.5
Minnesota
6
5.5
Iowa
4
5.5un-140





Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten



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