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October

21

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MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: 5 Things I Just Noticed About The Big Ten

07.07.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve started preparing for college football. Which means…making humongous plans for what I’m going to try to keep track of only to find out in September that my eyes were bigger than my stomach. I’m at least planning to keep track of drive points (those scored on drives of 60 yards or more) out of the gate this season. If I get a bunch of charts made up for that in July and August, it won’t be too onerous a time commitment on the fly once games start.

Today I was playing around in the Big 10. Here are 5 things I noticed.
 
*Michigan only ranked #78 in total offense last year. There’s a lot to like about Brady Hoke. But, they were a consensus top 10 pick a year ago in the preseason, and only managed 8-5 against a schedule that included some auto-wins. Honeymoons go quickly in the Big 10. They did put up some points late in the year against Ohio State and South Carolina, after struggling for 6 at Notre Dame, 12 vs. Michigan State, and 9 at Read more


Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling News: Phillies close but not ready to quit on season

07.06.2013     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
At 7.5 games out in the National League East, the Philadelphia Phillies are at a crossroads in their season. It is an aging team that has had a difficult time staying healthy and some folks would argue that now is the time to start looking towards next year and beyond. General Manager Ruben Amaro came out yesterday and essentially said that if the team doesn't get after it during its upcoming 10-game home stand then break out of the white flags. So far so good as they beat the Braves 5-4 last night.


“This homestand is very important,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said before Friday night’s game. “We’ve got to play well to stay in contention, clearly. I think we’ll know a lot more about this team after this homestand.”

“It could,” Amaro admitted. “It could. I hope we’re adding to this club rather than subtracting. That’s the goal, but as I always say and I’ve been saying, the players will dictate it.

“These next 10 days are Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies




MLB Betting Recap: Cincinnati's Homer Bailey tosses second no-hitter

07.03.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds threw a no-hitter Tuesday night against the slumping San Francisco Giants. It’s amazing how all the arguing on twitter can come to a halt for something like that…everybody loves a no-hitter!

Bailey has now thrown the last two in the majors, having tossed one in Pittsburgh last season.

It was also a night for “no” from the five-inning perspective, meaning NO SCORING for a lot of teams. If you’re new to the blog, we tend to focus on five-inning action here because that’s a popular betting proposition in the markets (because it eliminates concern about closers)…and because nobody else is writing about it anywhere.

Tuesday:

*Philadelphia at Pittsburgh was 0-0 through five innings (Pettibone and Cumpton)

*Milwaukee at Washington was 0-0 through five innings (Peralta and Strasburg)

*Arizona posted a 0 in New York vs. Hefner

*Colorado posted a 0 at home vs. Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence




Canadian Football League Week 1 Betting Recap

07.02.2013     02:38 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 2013 Canadian Football League season got off to an exciting start which provided what would be the NFL equivalent of a bookmaker’s nightmare. All four Week 1 games went over the total and all four favorites (Montreal, Toronto, Calgary and Saskatchewan) got the win and pointspread cover. The 4-0 O/U mark and the 4-0 SU and ATS mark for favorites obviously won’t last but it will be interesting to see how quickly things change entering in Week 2. In watching all four games last week, the major thing that I noticed was a major bias towards offenses from the officials who had a tendency to award the majority of “50/50” calls for infractions taking place on passing plays down the field to the offense. I definitely noticed a major spike in pass interference and illegal contact penalties on the defense last week and those penalties combined to not only keep drives alive for the offensive units but also moved the football significantly toward the opposing end zone. Aside from the Saskatchewan Roughriders, defenses were owned by opposing offenses but neither that nor the officiating are identifiable traits that we should automatically assume will continue and Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




College Football Betting: Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.02.2013     01:25 PM     Printer Friendly
Below are the Big Ten's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. It's the last season of the Leaders and Legends divisions with Rutgers and Maryland joining next season to form the more logically named East and West. As for 2013, it’s Ohio State and everyone else according to oddsmakers and the betting markets. The Buckeyes are the second choice behind Alabama for the BCS crown at 8-1, -110 to win the Big Ten Championship, and a huge -465 favorite to win the Leaders Division. The schedule sets up well with six of OSU's first eight in Columbus and winnable road games at Cal, Northwestern, Purdue and Indiana. They do however travel to Ann Arbor to close out the regular season. As for the rest of the Big Ten, Michigan State and Wisconsin are slated to improve after 6- and 7-win seasons, respectively. The Legends Division looks fairly balanced with the Spartans, Nebraska, Michigan, and Northwestern all lined at 8.5-9.5 wins. The Wolverines are the slight betting favorite at +230.

2013 Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Big Ten Leaders
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Ohio State
12
11.5un-195
Penn State
8
8.5un-195
Wisconsin
7
8.5ov-210
Purdue
6
5.5un-245
Indiana
4
5.5ov-210
Illinois
2
3.5ov-160
Big Ten Legends
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Nebraska
10
9.5ov-130
Michigan
8
9.5un-135
Northwestern
9
8.5un-140
Michigan State
6
8.5
Minnesota
6
5.5
Iowa
4
5.5un-140





Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten




MLB Gambling News: Which is the Best Division in Baseball?

07.02.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Another topic fitting for our lawyer/judge conversation of late. Today SB Nation posted an article called “The NL Central, Baseball’s Best Division.”

That seemed odd, considering that:

*Cincinnati fans are up in arms about how the Reds were squashed in their recent matchups with Oakland and Texas from the superior American League. The Redlegs went 1-4, getting outclassed on the scoreboard 23-11

*St. Louis fans were licking their own wounds after going 1-5 vs. the same two American League teams. Remember that the Cards were swept at home by the Rangers last weekend, before dropping two of three to the A’s this weekend.

I mean…NOW’s the time you want to make the case that the NL Central is the best in baseball?! The American League has established superiority for several years now. Both the Reds Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Notes for All 30 Teams Amidst "Four-Max" Updates

07.01.2013     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, back with updates for the four-max MLB averages we’ve been studying the past few weeks here on these pages. If you’re new to the site, we’re trying to rate offenses for a combination of volume and consistency in terms of their ability to score in the first five innings. This was designed with market propositions for “first half” baseball action in mind…but the approach also works as a strong general way to rank offenses because you’re seeing how the manager’s preferred lineups are doing against opposing rotations.

Keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings.

*Use a cut-off four runs (hence the term, “four-max”) to help take out the influence that big outliers may have…and to create a median of 2 (0-1-2-3-4) that best approximates the reality of early scoring.

For some teams I’ll use “road only” numbers because they play in extreme home parks that Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more


Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Recap: Friday Night News and Notes

06.29.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw together some notes after all. Let’s take the games in rotation order…

*Cole of Pittsburgh got another win. He’s proving to be an interesting pitcher to handicap. He throws 100 mph but doesn’t get strikeouts at a rate you’d expect. At least not so far. Only 3 K’s tonight in 6 innings. He got rocked in the first inning…but then the Pirates scored a zillion runs off the latest Brewers desperation pitcher. The Pirates “four-max” offense (scoring totals in the first five innings with a peak cut-off right at four) the last six games is 4-4-3-4-2-4. They continue a relative explosion from an extended slump several weeks ago.

*Nolasco of Florida has been featured in a lot of trade talk of late. He’s so inconsistent…you can’t be sure that whoever gets him is going to be happy. I’ve arranged his first half runs allowed totals from best to worst. Note how few games are right at a Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence



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