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NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor heading into Week 15

12.19.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages in the sum of total plays + penalties + field goal attempts + punts for games involving each team. Buffalo’s games have had the most plays at 167.4 by my count, even faster paced than the “Oregon-style” Philadelphia Eagles at 166.8. Of course, Buffalo also has a first-year coach that just came up from the college level. The slowest paced team by this measure is Carolina, with 146.0 in their games on average. Hasn’t that pace helped the defense drive while encouraging Cam Newton to play relatively mistake-free?

The scale…

Helter Skelter (159 and up)

Buffalo 167.4

Philadelphia 166.8

Cleveland 165.6

Denver 163.6

New England 163.0

Baltimore 161.7

Kansas City 159.4
Faster Than Average (156-158)

Jacksonville 157.3 (influenced by playing from behind so Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Betting Preview: Buffalo Bulls vs. San Diego State Aztecs

12.18.2013     11:40 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Boise, Idaho
Saturday, December 21, 2:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Buffalo -1.5 O/U 54
CRIS Current: San Diego State pk O/U 53
Rob Veno's Power Rating: San Diego State -0.5

An interesting MAC vs. Mountain West matchup will take place on the blue turf in Boise when the Buffalo Bulls (8-4) face the San Diego State Aztecs (7-5). Buffalo was a surprise this season jumping from a dismal 4-8 in 2012 to 8-4. This will mark the program’s second-ever bowl appearance – they lost to UConn by 18 in 2009. Buffalo head coach Jeff Quinn’s quote indicates that his team is very excited for this opportunity:

“It's been four years in the making. We talked about setting our goals towards being a football program that has a November and December tradition. And to be invited to a bowl game when we knew there were more bowl eligible Read more

Tags: College Football Buffalo Bulls MAC San Diego State Aztecs Mountain West Ian Cameron

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors

12.18.2013     11:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Charlotte +6.5 at Toronto O/U 190.5
Recommendation: Charlotte

After two years of absolute ineptitude (28-120 SU in ’12 and ’13), the Bobcats have a competitive team this year thanks to the emergence of point guard Kemba Walker and the offseason addition of low post force Al Jefferson.  Charlotte’s defensive minded first year head coach Steve Clifford has made an enormous difference as well.  Last year, the Bobcats ranked dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions.  This year, they’ve improved enough to rank #4 in the entire league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 97.1 points per 100 possessions.

That’s a dramatic defensive turnaround, by far the biggest in the NBA this year.  As a result of that improved defense, the Bobcats have morphed from bottom feeders into money winners.  And Charlotte’s single best role has been as a road underdog.  The opened the season Read more

Tags: NBA Charlotte Bobcats Toronto Raptors Teddy Covers

College Football Gambling: Missouri still feels disrespected

12.18.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri -1 O/U 60.5

Missouri is using the disrespect card heading into its Cotton Bowl matchup against Oklahoma State.

“We still have one of the best offenses in the nation, and I’ll believe that until someone tells me otherwise,” left tackle Justin Britt said minutes after a 59-42 loss that cost Mizzou an SEC title and a spot in the BCS national championship game. “You know, the story ain’t over. There’s still stuff to be written.”

“We’re still not getting respected, man,” center Evan Boehm said in that otherwise quiet locker room. “We moved the ball on an Auburn team that Alabama had trouble moving the ball (against). If we’re not getting respected after this game, even though

Read more

Tags: College Football Missouri Tigers SEC Oklahoma State Cowboys Big XII

Little Caesars Bowl Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Bowling Green Falcons

12.17.2013     11:32 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green
Little Caesars - Detroit, Mich.
Thursday, December 26, 3 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Bowling Green -5.5 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: Bowling Green -5 O/U 50
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Bowling Green -2

The Little Caesars Bowl represents a return to college football action after a brief day of rest for Christmas. It will showcase Pitt (6-6, ACC) and Bowling Green (10-3, MAC) doing battle at Ford Field in Detroit and we’ll examine how these teams got to be where they are and how they stack up.

Pitt was no guarantee to even make a bowl after their Jekyll and Hyde season. Inconsistent is probably the best way to describe this team and it’s easy to understand when you step back and look at them. They had to replace their starting quarterback, their leading rusher, and their best receiver to start the year couple with their transition to the ACC. They opened the year with a Read more

Tags: College Football Pittsburgh Panthers ACC Bowling Green Falcons MAC Otto Sports

College Football Handicapping: Michigan's Gardner has yet to practice for bowl

12.17.2013     10:06 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Michigan vs. Kansas State -3.5 O/U 55.5

Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner (turf toe) has yet to practice as the team prepares for their Buffalo Wild Wings matchup against Kansas State. It sounds as if he will play, especially considering Gardner's backup, Shane Morris, has attempted only nine passes. Gardner caught a lot of flak this season but closed the season strong with a 451 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT performance against Ohio State.

“He’s thrown the ball a little bit, but we haven’t done a whole lot,” Michigan coach Brady Hoke said Monday. “(We) don’t want to get him out there too soon. It’s more than anything making sure Read more

Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Kansas State Big XII

College Football Betting: Georgia and Nebraska face off for second straight year

12.17.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Nebraska vs. Georgia -9 O/U 60.5

Sounds as if Georgia was a little disappointed to draw Nebraska for a second straight year after beating the Cornhuskers 45-31 in the Capital One Bowl. In that game, UGA closed as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 62. Heading into the fourth quarter, the game was tied 31-31.

"I was kind of hoping we were going to play the U or I heard there was a chance we could play the alma mater,” Georgia coach Mark Richt said of Miami, where he was a backup quarterback. “This will be great because Nebraska is the team I grew up admiring. That was my team as a kid (in Omaha, Neb.) so it worked out good.”

“I was kind of like the other guys,” the Georgia senior offensive lineman said. “I did want to play Michigan or Iowa or Minnesota, just a

Read more

Tags: College Football Georgia Bulldogs SEC Nebraska Cornhuskers Big Ten

College Football Handicapping: Bowl Game Win Totals by Conference

12.16.2013     01:23 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Spotted on Twitter that Cantor Gaming has prop bets for conference bowl game win totals. They are as followed...

(F) = Favorite, (D) = Underdog

ACC O/U 4.5
Florida State (F), Clemson (D), Boston College (D), Maryland (D), Syracuse (D), Duke (D), Miami (D), Virginia Tech (D), Georgia Tech (D), North Carolina (F), Pittsburgh (D).

Big Ten O/U 3
Ohio State (F), Wisconsin (pk), Michigan State (D), Iowa (D), Minnesota (F), Nebraska (D), Michigan (D).

Big XII O/U 2.5un-130
Baylor (F), Oklahoma (D), Oklahoma State (D), Texas (D), Kansas State (F), Texas Tech (D).

PAC-12 O/U 6ov-130
Stanford (F), Oregon (F), Washington (F), Oregon State (F), Washington State (F), Arizona State (F), Arizona State (F), USC (F), Arizona (F).

SEC O/U 6.5un-130
Missouri (F), South Carolina (pk), Vanderbilt (F), Georgia (F), Auburn (D), Alabama (F), LSU (F), Texas A&M (F), Ole Miss (F), Mississippi State (F).

Tags: College Football

NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

12.13.2013     01:56 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Houston at Indianapolis
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Indianapolis -6.5 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -5 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Indianapolis -8
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Indianapolis

The wiseguys here in Vegas absolutely despise the Colts; rare vitriol from professional bettors.  Why the abject hatred for Indy?  Simple – Indy’s stats are lousy, just like they were last year; yet the Colts are on a 16-8 ATS run in their last 24 ballgames.  In other words, the sharp $$ has been fading Indy for two years and consistently losing those bets; a mounting source of frustration.

Those same wiseguys have cashed betting against the Colts three times in their last five games; blowout losses against the Rams, Cardinals and Bengals.  And we’re seeing heavy money pour in on Houston, against Indy again this week; giving us a very favorable line to support Read more

Tags: NFL Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 15

12.12.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. That's a stat I've been keeping myself by hand from itemized scoring drives in boxscores ever since the USA Today started publishing them many years ago. In the first parenthesis are strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order, and, largely converging now). In the second parenthesis is turnover differential. Games are presented in market rotation order. I tried to line up the numbers as best as possible by abbreviating some of the team cities…


San Diego: 14.6 on offense, 16.1 on defense (19-31) (-3 turnovers)

Denver : 23.3 on offense, 15.0 on defense (20-29) (-2 turnovers)

Football Outsiders has mentioned somewhere that San Diego supposedly has one of the five worst defenses in the history of their stat methodology. I mean…it’s pretty Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence


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