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NFL Handicapping Trends: Non-Conference Totals

09.25.2013     01:17 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The natural order of game importance in the NFL is one of the first things any handicapper/bettor has to learn and subsequently apply. Divisional games are by far the most important to all teams followed by conference and then non-conference. That being known, the general theories are as follows: 1) division games will be hotly contested and potentially lower scoring because of team familiarity, 2) conference action will be intense but maybe not quite as intense as division rivalries and 3) non-conference tilts are the games where letdowns and lesser focus can enable abnormal scores to occur. Of course this knowledge is simply a starting point and nothing more than one of many ingredients to be considered in each individual game handicap. Because there are eight of them this week, I’m going to use this article to look at handicapping non-conference totals.

So far this season, there have been 13 non-conference games played and the record sits at 8-5 61.5% to the over. All 13 games have had final score differentials of at least 3.5 points from the closing total and 10 of the 13 (76.9%) have ended 11.5 points or more off of the closer. Those are 10 very easy wins Read more



Tags: NFL Rob Veno




College Football Betting Trends: BYU has history of bouncing back after Holy War

09.25.2013     11:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Middle Tennessee State at BYU -23 O/U 59.5

The Holy War between Utah and BYU is a pretty heated rivalry and last week's meeting was a hard fought slugfest with the Utes prevailing 20-13. The Cougars have a short turnaround this week with MTSU coming to town on Thursday. Historically, BYU hasn't had a problem coming out with a strong effort following the Holy War with a 9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS record. Last season after losing to Utah 24-21, BYU lost at home to Boise State 7-6 but covered the number (+5). Two years ago the Cougs beat Central Florida 24-17 as 2.5-point home chalk.




Tags: College Football BYU Cougars Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Sun Belt




NFL Gambling News: Buccaneers bench Freeman, give Glennon a shot

09.25.2013     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Tampa Bay -3 O/U 40.5

After a 0-3 start, the Buccaneers are making a move at quarterback with Josh Freeman on the pine and Mike Glennon slated to start Sunday's game vs. Arizona. Similar to last week with Cleveland's switch from Brandon Weeden to Brian Hoyer, there doesn't seem to be a reason to downgrade the position despite Glennon making his first-ever start. The betting markets agree as the line for Sunday's game hasn't budged since the announcement.


"This league is about finding a franchise quarterback and with Josh's roller-coaster career, we don't feel he's that guy," a team source said.







Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arizone Cardinals




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/24/2013

09.24.2013     12:02 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think most of you reading this know the drill by now. What you see below is my estimate of how “the market” has college football teams rated at this point in the season. And, by “the market,” I mean the combination of oddsmakers and sharps (leaving out the often-misguided public as best as possible). These are based on the current pointspreads at writing time, allotting 3 points for home field advantage.

This isn’t how I personally rate the teams. It’s my estimate of “market Power Ratings” if they existed in a tangible form.

An early number came up in Las Vegas last week for a hypothetical matchup between Alabama and Oregon. That line was Alabama -3, which represents how oddsmakers would rate the game. What would sharps do once big limits were available on a game like that? My scale estimates that sharps would take Oregon. They seem to be betting Oregon hand over fist this year…and Alabama is struggling to play Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting Podcast 9-24-2013 with Handicappers Brian Edwards and Rob Veno

09.24.2013     10:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brian Edwards and Rob Veno. Brian recapped Week 4 College Football (SEC, ACC, AAC) and RobIan did the same (Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC, MWC).

Today's segments
Full Show

Brian Edwards - CFB Week 4 Recap: SEC, ACC, AAC

Rob Veno - CFB Week 4 Recap: Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC, MWC

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: College Football Brian Edwards Rob Veno




NFL Gambling Trends: Betting favorites have covered four straight in London series

09.23.2013     12:38 PM     Printer Friendly
The first of two London games goes on Sunday with Pittsburgh taking on Minnesota. San Francisco and Jacksonville (huh?) are slated to play in late October. Below is the betting history of the London series. Slight lean towards favorites (4-2 ATS) and unders (2-4 O/U).

NFL Betting Results in London 2007-present
Year
Team
Team
Final
Side ATS
Total
2013
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
???
???
???
2012
New England (-7.5)
St. Louis
NE 45, STL 7
Favorite
Over 46
2011
Chicago (-1.5)
Tampa Bay
CHI 24, TB 18
Favorite
Under 44.5
2010
Denver
San Francisco (-2)
SF 24, DEN 17
Favorite
Under 41
2009
New England (-15.5)
Tampa Bay
NE 35, TB 7
Favorite
Under 44.5
2008
San Diego
New Orleans (+3)
NO 37, SD 32
Underdog
Over 45.5
2007
NY Giants
Miami (+10)
NYG 13, MIA 10
Underdog
Under 47.5





Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Minnesota Vikings




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 3

09.23.2013     07:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week, Teddy took a long, hard look at five NFC teams that have been major disappointments to start the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Doug Martin had 144 yards on the ground last week and the Bucs still only scored a single offensive touchdown and lost the game. Today, with Martin largely contained (longest carry 11 yards), the offense only managed a single field goal and lost the game. After leading the league in penalties through the first two games, the Bucs were only flagged four times here, but that’s about the only bright spot from this performance.

Injuries are becoming a huge story with this team. They came into this game missing three starters from opening day in their secondary, forced to start a safety who was on their practice squad last week. Their lone playmaker, WR Vincent Jackson left the game with bruised ribs. His counterpart on the other side, Mike Williams had a clear limp all afternoon. Pro bowl Read more



Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Giants San Francisco 49ers New York Giants St. Louis Rams Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor through Week 3

09.23.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Following up on our discussion from earlier this week, here are the play totals (runs, passes, accepted penalties, punts, field goal attempts) from Sunday afternoon NFL games (plus KC/Philly from Thursday). I’ll rank them from fastest paced to slowest paced. First, the boundaries we’ve seen so far in the first two weeks...

Fastest: 187 (Baltimore at Denver, with two fast teams in season opener)

Midpoint: 158

Slowest: 134 (Oakland at Indianapolis)

This Week

192: Buffalo at NY Jets (new high, Bills floundered fast, Jets a million penalties)

178: Cleveland at Minnesota (fourth fastest in NFL this season)

171: Kansas City at Philadelphia

169: Detroit at Washington

159: Tampa Bay at New England

157: Houston at Baltimore

154: Jacksonville at Seattle

152: Green Bay at Cincinnati

149: San Diego at Tennessee

149: Arizona at New Orleans (Saints continue to Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




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09.22.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly







NFL Gambling Preview: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings

09.22.2013     07:34 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland at Minnesota
Sunday, 10 am PT – CBS
CRIS Opener:
Minnesota -3 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current: Minnesota -6.5 O/U 41
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Minnesota -5
Erin Rynning’s Recommendation: Cleveland

The Vikings enter Sunday’s game against the Browns as a steep touchdown favorite.  They also enter with a 0-2 record and their two opponents were hardly world beaters in the Bears and Lions.  As expected, the Vikings quarterback play has been bad under the direction of Christian Ponder.  Ponder has turned the ball over frequently and he lacks the arm strength to exploit teams with the deep ball.  Teams have stacked the line of scrimmage in a big way, daring Ponder to beat them.  This hasn’t worked out well for Adrian Peterson and the run game as well.  After Peterson’s initial 78-yard run to open the season, he’s averaged 2.7 yards per carry on 43 Read more



Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Minnesota Vikings Erin Rynning



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 04, 2015 04:44 AM.