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NCAA Tournament Free Pick: Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan State Spartans
03.18.2012 10:51 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Saint Louis +7.5 vs. Michigan State O/U 124
Recommendation: Saint Louis
Michigan State is top-tier team, but I believe they are in for a tough one today. Their superior defense can be matched by a Saint Louis stop unit that requires patience, precision passing and careful ball handling. Lower-scoring game expected with Michigan State allowing just 59 ppg on 38% shooting and 29% from the three-point line. The Billikens allowed just 59 ppg in A-10 play and after watching our outright underdog winner on SLU over red-hot Memphis you have to be impressed with their ability to dictate tempo and play defense. Saint Louis holds opponents to a low offensive rebounding rate (28%) which is a great match-up against the Spartans’ strength on the boards. Point guard Kwamain Mitchell gives them a premier floor leader, ball handler and passer who can score. Add in some solid outside shooters to a tough team and the Billikens are capable of taking this one to the wire.
Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. His top-rated Big Drive CBB selections hit over 55% this season on
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Michigan State Spartans
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CIT Free Betting Pick: Weber State Wildcats at Loyola Marymount Lions
03.18.2012 06:43 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Weber State
at
Loyola Marymount
-3.5 O/U 144.5
Recommendation: Over
Outside Big Sky play, Weber State was repeatedly exposed on the defensive end of the floor. Against St. Mary's, BYU and Cal, the Wildcats surrendered 87, 94 and 77 points. They also struggled on the road, allowed nearly 73 ppg. The end result was a season long average of 105.7 points per possessions allowed which is very similar to that of Cal State Fullerton (108.2) – a team Loyola Marymount hung 88 on in the first round of the CIT. LMU played its fair share of moderately tempo games but showed a willingness to run against San Francisco and BYU – two teams very similar to Weber State. Certainly a game both side would like to win, but I once against don't expect much intensity on the defensive end which will get us over the 145 mark.
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Weber State Wildcats
Loyola Marymount Lions
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NCAA Tournament Betting Notes: Round of 32 action gets underway
03.17.2012 10:09 AM
Printer Friendly
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Round of 32 action tips off Saturday and we saw some huge upsets in opening round action. With a pair of #15 seeds winning with Norfolk State over Missouri and Lehigh over Duke, there have now been six #15 seeds pull the opening round upset since the NCAA field expanded in 1985. And Friday’s #15 seed shockers had not happened since 2001. Who could forget when some freshman named Steve Nash led #15 seed Santa Clara to the upset over Arizona in 1993? And how about #13 Ohio completing the big upset trifecta over Michigan yesterday?
Well, history is not profitable for the #15 seeds in the round of 32, as Cinderella #15 is just 1-3 ATS in their next NCAA Tournament game. Note however that Lehigh will play another upset winner with #10 seed Xavier bet up from the -2.5 opening line.
Kentucky and Florida are double-digit favorites in the round of 32, and over the past 10 years, double-digit favorites in this round are a solid 18-8 ATS.
From a totals perspective, the last three years have seen an ‘over’ bias, as the round of 32 over/unders are 31-16-1. Note that Friday’s totals went 4-12 over/under.
I have two
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NIT Betting Free Play: UMass Minutemen at Seton Hall Pirates
03.17.2012 06:48 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
UMass +7 at Seton Hall O/U 151
Recommendation: UMass
Early start here in the NIT and a matchup that will be won by who brings the most intensity. Seton Hall didn't look very sharp in its first round win over Stony Brook, escaping with a 63-61 win. Now they face a squad in UMass that requires 40 minutes of concentration. If not, the Minutemen will run the Pirates out of the gym – similar to what they did for much of the time in their win at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs finally woke up but it was too late as UMass (+6.5) won outright in overtime. Look for UMass's relentless press and tempo to cause problems for a potentially lethargic home side in this 11 am local start.
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Norfolk State and Lehigh cash big tickets for moneyline bettors
03.17.2012 06:40 AM
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Because these are nice to look at and a healthy reminder that no matter how "chalky" things may get for a stretch, outcomes like these WILL inevitably happen every NCAA Tournament.
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NCAA Tournament Gambling Notes: Indiana preps for tough VCU defense
03.17.2012 06:32 AM
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VCU
vs.
Indiana
-6 O/U 140
Indiana showing concern for facing
VCU's vaunted press
on such short notice. Note that the total in this game has climbed to as high as 140 yet VCU has been played just one game over 132 its last two trips to the NCAA Tournament (7 games).
"There are some definitive places that VCU wants you to catch the ball, which is like most pressing teams, which is deep in the corner, and then try to get you to throw it back underneath the basket,'' Crean said. "And this is not a game where I think we're going to be able to bring fatigue to the game. I thought we were able to bring fatigue to the game (against New Mexico State). I think this team is deep. I think they're used to the way they play . . . So it's really a lot more about how strong we are with the ball, what our vision is like and what
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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Baylor Bears
03.17.2012 06:24 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Colorado
vs.
Baylor
-8 O/U 133.5
Recommendation: Baylor
My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with Colorado over UNLV on Thursday Night, as the Buffaloes jumped out to a 20 point lead and hung on late for the victory. But Colorado’s weakness down the stretch of that ballgame speaks volumes about their inability to compete in this ‘step-up-in-class’ contest on Saturday.
The Buffs are on quite an impressive run: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since the start of the PAC-12 tournament, winning outright four different times as an underdog. But there was one common denominator in all five of those wins. Colorado didn’t face a team with a strong low post presence at any point during that run. Now, this tired team (this is their sixth game since last Wednesday) must find a way to battle against Baylor’s dominant low post trio of Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller. The PAC-12 didn’t have a trio like that anywhere in the
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Teddy Covers
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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Ohio Bobcats vs. Michigan Wolverines
03.16.2012 11:37 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Ohio
vs.
Michigan
-5.5 O/U 125.5
Recommendation: Michigan
The Wolverines program has progressively improved under head coach John Beilein culminating in this season’s 24-9 record, national ranking, and more importantly a share of the Big Ten title. Entering the conference tournament, you got the feeling that the Wolverines were fat, happy and satisfied with their regular season and would be looking forward to the Big Dance. That scenario played out as the Wolverines were fully embarrassed in a 77-55 loss to Ohio State. However, the loss likely serves as a wake-up call for Big Blue, and they just might be sitting on their best performance of the season tonight in Nashville. Beilein has proved himself over the years as a heady tournament coach. The NCAA Tournament provides a sound platform for the Wolverines’ system of play. Their half-court offense is difficult to prepare for and Beilein’s ability to mix up his defense’s anchored by their
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NCAA Tournament Betting Stats: Teams struggle to shoot on Thursday
03.16.2012 08:42 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Pretty tough shooting day for most teams overall yesterday...here are the venue "totals" breakdowns:
Pittsburgh (Consol Energy Center) - 1 over / 3 under - Avg 134.8
All 4 games fell between 131-137
Louisville (KFC Center) - 3 over / 1 under - Avg 135.8
Three games between 141-156...Murray State game 99
Albuquerque (The Pit) - 2 over / 2 under - Avg 132.8
Three games between 122-132...Harvard-Vandy game 149
Portland (Rose Garden) - 1 over / 3 under - Avg 135.0
Two games 143 & 145...Other Two 121 & 131
Of the 10 games that stayed under the total yesterday...6 were below the closing number by 10.5+, one was 8 points under and the other three were 1.5, 2 & 4.5.
Of the 6 games that went over the total...One made it over by double digits (26) and the other five got over by between 2.5 & 5.5 points.
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Rob Veno
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NCAA Tournament Betting News: Florida wants to control tempo vs. Virginia
03.16.2012 07:52 AM
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Virginia
vs.
Florida
-3 O/U 122.5
Article on Florida's
game plan
for Virginia. Looks as if the Gators are going to try and push the pace with the hopes of avoiding the Cavs' strong half court defense. Easier said than done. In three games against up-tempo Duke and North Carolina, there were 59, 66 and 61 possessions with games scores of 119, 122 and 105.
“They do a great job holding teams down, and they have done that all year long,” UF coach Billy Donovan said. “It will be a little different for us, so to speak. We have played teams that don’t necessarily do exactly the same thing, but there are teams that have similar philosophies, similar mindsets in terms of how they play defensively.”
“Sometimes it can be difficult when a team is really disciplined with the ball and doesn’t turn
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