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Saturday MLB Betting Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
06.02.2012 08:46 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
LA Dodgers
(Harang) at
Colorado
(Nicasio) -145 O/U 10.5
Recommendation: Over
We cashed a pair of underdog winners to start June baseball and chipped-in a free play winner on the Pirates +135 in their 8-2 win at Milwaukee last night. Today it’s back to the totals market and no reason not to ride the Rockies OVER meal ticket as they host division leading LA. The Dodgers have lost five straight games while the Rockies enter on a roll with five straight wins.
Colorado games have gone over the total 11 consecutive games and have scored 13, 11, 13, 7 and 9 runs during their surge at home. Note that shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has been out the past two games and is now on the 15-day disabled list. Still, the hot bats should continue against LA starter Aaron Harang, who has allowed 41 hits in 33 innings on the road with a .306 BAA.
Rockies starter Juan Nicasio has been hit hard his last two starts and has a .325 BAA at Coors Field along with a 7.04 ERA and 1.83 WHIP.
Read more
Tags:
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
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MLB Gambling: Bullpens succeeding and failing at same rate as last year
06.02.2012 07:44 AM
Printer Friendly
As bettors, we like to complain each and every season that bullpen meltdowns are occurring at a historical rate. The reality is however that this year's numbers are
very similar to 2011
. Remember, if (insert name of random relief pitcher who cost you 2 units last week) were that good, they’d be in the starting rotation.
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MLB Handicapping: Chicago White Sox go for 10th straight victory
06.02.2012 07:38 AM
Printer Friendly
Seattle
(Noesi) at
Chicago WS
(Floyd) -145 O/U 9
The red hot Chicago White Sox go for
10 straight wins
today against Seattle. Chicago scored 156 runs in the month of May; second-most in the Majors. Since mid-May, they've averaged over 8.5 runs per game at home and during their nine-game winning streak the bats have produced 72 runs (8.0 rpg). At home they have a strong .779 OPS. They are currently the second most profitable team in the American League (+8.6 units) behind Baltimore (+11.1).
"Right now we're on a good roll," said Beckham, who is batting .324 during an eight-game hitting streak, raising his average 25 points to .229. "It's first of June. We're doing the right things coming to work every day and hoping it's enough. The last week and a half it's been enough. You just can't get complacent because this game will humble you really quickly."
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MLB Handicapping: Peavy's fly ball ways not a good fit for Cellular Field
06.01.2012 12:05 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Adding to Teddy's free play on the
Mariners/White Sox Over
, here are a few things that stood out to me. Of qualified starting pitchers, Jake Peavy has been the strongest fly baller in the entire league at just a shade under 70%. Yet despite that he allowed a respectable six home runs in 70.1 innings. If you look at a majority of the other extreme fly ball pitchers, their home run/fly ball rate is above 10%. Phil Hughes, Mike Minor and Colby Lewis are around 15%. Peavy's rate is 6.5% -- a mark commonly tied to ground ballers or pitchers like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver who spend most of their time in pitcher friendly parks. Obviously Peavy is going to struggle moving forward with these rates -- especially at Cellular Field. And we've seen some regression with two home runs each of his last two home starts. Note that tonight's opponent, Seattle, is averaging 4.7 runs per game on the highway. They've played the most road games of any team in
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MLB Gambling Alert: Bettors react to Strasburg's potential arm problems
06.01.2012 10:52 AM
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Atlanta
(Minor) at
Washington
(Strasburg) -145 O/U 7.5
The betting markets have come in strong against the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg tonight. Strasburg
left his last start
with what was called "arm fatigue." He allowed a season high four earned runs and four walks. Unfortunately, supporting Atlanta's Mike Minor is pretty risky considering he's allowed 28 earned runs over his last five outings. Not surprising to see the total bet up from 7 to 7.5.
Line history courtesy of 5Dimes.
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
06.01.2012 10:03 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Seattle (Hernandez) at Chicago (Peavy) -125 O/U 7
Recommendation: Over
The White Sox have been Over machines at the Cell in recent weeks; 8-1 to the Over in their last nine tries at home. Robin Ventura’s lineup has been crushing opposing pitching, pounding out 64 runs in those last nine at home. Don’t expect King Felix to change the ChiSox offensive fortunes this evening. Hernandez has been getting roughed up consistently in recent weeks, 1-3 with a 5.94 ERA in his last four trips to the hill. He’s been bombed three times in his last five road starts and is winless with an ERA well over 4.00 in his last four starts on the south side of Chicago.
Seattle’s lineup came alive during their just concluded series at Texas, as the light hitting Mariners exploded for 31 runs in the final two games of the series, going Over the total by themselves in both contests. They also scored 28 runs in the final five games of their previous road trip, finding offensive production much easier away from pitcher friendly Safeco Field. Chicago starter Jake Peavy has been hammered for 13 earned runs in his
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Sports Betting Podcast 6-1-2012 with Handicapper Erin Rynning
06.01.2012 09:59 AM
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Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Erin Rynning. ER broke down the MLB card and the NBA Playoffs from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Erin Rynning - MLB and NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Erin Rynning
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MLB Gambling Notes: Detroit's infield defense has been brutal
06.01.2012 08:26 AM
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Article on how Detroit's
sub-par infield defense
of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Johnny Peralta, Ryan Rayburn and Ramon Santiago has cost the team plenty of runs. The Tigers rank near the bottom in nearly every defensive category.
As Rosenthal points out, the Tigers had converted 71 percent of their ground balls into outs (heading into last weekend), the worst rate in the majors, according to Bloomberg Sports. Toronto is first at 83.1 percent.
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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
06.01.2012 08:15 AM
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Submitted by
Pittsburgh
(Correia) +135 at
Milwaukee
(Wolf) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
The Brewers (23-28) return home following a seven-game road trip and which concluded with a four-game sweep of the LA Dodgers. Milwaukee is just 11-13 at Miller Park this season and Randy Wolf (2-4, 5.73 ERA) is hardly a pitcher you can play with confidence, especially laying a pretty big price. Well aware the Brewers won eight of nine home games over the Pirates last season, but Milwaukee was a playoff team with a strong offense and better pitching (0.80 better ERA). Wolf is very hittable with 70 hits allowed in 55 innings with 22 walks (1.67 WHIP) and 30 strikeouts. His .313 BAA speaks loudly to his struggles this season. He’s been out-pitching his skills in recent years but it’s catching up to him as he turns 36 this season. Milwaukee’s lack of offense (.241) can no longer bail him out.
The Pirates offense is a big concern as they are hitting a NL-worst
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MLB Betting Alert: Detroit sends rookie lefty Casey Crosby to the hill
06.01.2012 08:05 AM
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NY Yankees
(Sabathia) -160 at
Detroit
(Crosby) O/U 8.5
Detroit lefty Casey Crosby will make his
MLB debut
tonight against the New York Yankees. He's a big kid at 6-5 and has shown a strong ability to miss bats with 10.13 strikeouts per 9 innings at Triple-A Toledo. Command has been an issue at times though over his last two starts, he fanned 16 while walking only one. He was beat out by Drew Smyly for a spot in the rotation to start the season.
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