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NFL Betting: Recapping recent Week 1 line moves

09.02.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Quick look at the some of the recent line moves in the NFL betting markets...

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Falcons opened -1.5 during the summer but by mid-August the Saints were -1.5/-2 favorites. Last week, New Orleans was popped again and is now -3 (ev/-105) across the board.

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Rams were -6/-6.5 for much of the summer. Now that Sam Bradford is out, the market has settled in at -4/-3.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens never really threatened to go to -3, but all of the +2.5's were taken out as they are now -1 vs. the Bengals.

Buffalo at Chicago: Bears have bounced back and forth -6.5/-7. There is some opinion on this one with Chicago -7 (-110) at CRIS and -6.5 (-110) at Greek and Cantor.

Tennessee at Kansas City: A slow trickle of Titans' money pushed them from +6 to +3.5. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs -3 (w/ juice) come game day.

San Francisco at Dallas: Another one with varying opinion. San Fran opened -3.5 and was bet up to -6. But recent Cowboys' support has the 49ers settled in at Read more

Tags: NFL

NFL Preseason Betting Consensus: Broncos and Ravens top choices for Saturday

08.23.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight's eight NFL Preseason games. Yesterday bettors went all in with the favorites and overs. Favorites finished 3-2 ATS based on the closing lines. Three of the five games went under the total. For Saturday there appears to be some decent opinion on a few underdogs with Dallas and St. Louis both taking over 70% of bets. Bettors remain sold that these penalty-filled games will find a way to go over the total Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Houston at Denver -7 (76.9%)
Washington at Baltimore -2.5 (73.1%)
Dallas +3.5 (71.7%) at Miami
St. Louis +2 (70.8%) at Cleveland
Tennessee at Atlanta -3.5 (68.4%)
Tampa Bay at Buffalo (64.8%)
New Orleans +2 (54.0%) at Indianapolis
Minnesota +3 (51.3%) at Kansas City

New Orleans-Indianapolis OVER 47.5 (85.7%)
Houston-Denver OVER 46 (82.6%)
Washington-Baltimore OVER 44 (80.0%)
Tennessee-Atlanta OVER 44 (76.5%)
St. Louis-Cleveland UNDER 43 (67.7%)
Dallas-Miami OVER 46.5 (55.9%)
Tampa Bay-Buffalo OVER 41.5 Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens

NFL Preseason Gambling: Baltimore short-handed in secondary

08.22.2014     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Washington at Baltimore -3 O/U 43

According to reports, Baltimore will be without its top three cornerbacks (Jimmy Smith, Asa Jackson, and Lardarius Webb) for Saturday's preseason games vs. Washington.

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Washington Redskins

NFL Gambling Update: So far so good for Ravens' run-game

08.20.2014     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly

A few weeks back we linked to an article on Baltimore's need of a better rushing attach. Last season the Ravens ranked 30th in the league at 83 ypg. First-year offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak had said that he wants this to be a run-first offense. Through two preseason games, the run-game appears to be on the upswing. The Ravens rolled up 151 yards (4.87 ypc) vs. Dallas and 237 yards (4.9 ypc) vs. San Francisco. All told they've run the ball 79 times. But before bettors get too excited, note that the defenses for the Cowboys and 49ers were extremely banged up (111 combined points allowed in four games).

"I feel good about the run game so far, and we temper it with the fact that it’s two games in the preseason, and what matters is what you do when it counts," Harbaugh said. "[There is] a long way to go to be where we need to be to have the kind of success that we’re hoping

Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Baltimore starters to play a quarter vs. Dallas

08.15.2014     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Baltimore at Dallas pk O/U 41.5

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said his starters will play about a quarter during Saturday's preseason tilt at Dallas.

“We’ll have some play counts for a few guys, including [quarterback] Joe [Flacco] and some of the defensive players, but we’ll see how it goes,” Harbaugh said “Basically, [the starters will play] about a quarter.”

"That’s going to be [dictated by] the way the game goes, how many plays we get on offense,” Harbaugh said. “Tyrod needs work—not that Keith doesn’t also, but Tyrod has had lots of practice time here. He hasn’t had as much game time.. Tyrod’s a very good quarterback, but the chance to play it out in games is

Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys

NFL Gambling News: Ravens, Kubiak hope for better run game

08.06.2014     06:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article on Baltimore Ravens first-year offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. A lot of talk about running the football, something the Ravens struggled to do last season. They ranked 30th in the league at 83.0 ypg.

“We’re done if we don’t have a running game,” said Harry Swayne, the Ravens’ director of player development and a starting tackle on Denver’s Super Bowl teams. “If we don’t, it’s going to be a tough year. We have to be patient, because there is a learning curve. It’s not just that it’s a new offense. A large part of the change is a new philosophy.”

“He has Texas all over him and he’ll talk to anybody,” Swayne said. “He’s a players’ coach, a back-of-the-bus kind of guy with a good sense of humor. But he works hard and he has his work to do here. But he made it work in Houston, and he’ll make it work here. Again, patience is a key.”

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens

NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part I

07.28.2014     06:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve been writing about NFL Season Win Totals for the last few weeks, using what I call “advanced metric schedule analysis.”  This week, the time has come to write about another stage of the 2014 pre-preseason team analysis that affects every win total on the board – quarterbacks.

Why quarterbacks?  Because more than ever, in the modern ‘pass happy’ era of NFL Football, the quarterback is the most important position on any team.  Of course a great quarterback can’t be great without a decent receiving corps or a decent offensive line, so those must be included in the equation when discussing quarterbacks. 

Here’s what I wrote last year in this space:

“The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Ravens determined to improve offense

06.30.2014     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Baltimore Ravens are hoping for an offensive turnaround this season after finishing 29th in total yardage in 2013. This offseason, they inked deals with wide receiver Steve Smith and tight end Owen Daniels. Former Houston head coach Gary Kubiak takes over at offensive coordinator.

Total Offense
2013 - 307.4 ypg (29th)
2012 - 352.5 ypg (16th)
2011 - 338.7 ypg (15th)

"It was tough for the offense, much more than we anticipated," Newsome told the Ravens' team site. "The lack of weapons really hurt at times."

"We'll be better on offense. I really like (offensive coordinator) Gary's (Kubiak) schemes," he added. "It's very precise. It's physical. I think we'll run the ball better, we'll keep the ball more and we'll have big plays. You can tell the players, especially guys like Joe (Flacco), like it -- and they can see that we have a good chance to be a lot better."

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC

Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards

01.30.2014     11:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over 39.5

Baldwin’s season averages won’t support this wager – hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books.   But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin.  And Baldwin has become Wilson’s go-to guy down the stretch.  He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he  sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.  And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!

Last season Teddy Covers and his clients CRUSHED the prop bets with a 10-1 record. For Sunday's Super Bowl XLVIII, he has nine props with analysis and a recommendation on the game's side. Get them all for only $49.

Below is what clients received with Teddy's prop bet package last year...

WIN - Will There Be Three Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers


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