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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins

06.03.2013     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.”  I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.

I closed out the article with these two paragraphs: “The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played.  The Saints weren’t far behind.  Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.

“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league.  Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates.  In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL-run website covers Las Vegas sportsbook odds

05.21.2013     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This has happened before, but we still find it humorous. On the Baltimore Ravens' official website, which is obviously a part of NFL.com, a beat writer runs through some of the 2013 season over/under wins provided by Las Vegas sportsbooks. The over/under on the article getting pulled down is 10.5un-120 hours.



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens




NFL Handicapping: 2013-14 Schedule with Week 1 Power Ratings

04.19.2013     06:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here's a link to 2013-14 NFL schedule. The season opens up September 5 with the defending champion Baltimore Ravens traveling to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos. Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno already has his Week 1 Power Ratings posted. Later today, LVH is expected to post Week 1 lines of which we'll try to link to or post in the forum.



Tags: NFL Rob Veno




NFL Handicapping: 2013-14 Strength of Schedule

02.15.2013     11:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Link to the NFL's generic strength of schedule for 2013-14 (by generic we mean opponents' records from this past season). Carolina tops the list at .534 (138-116-2). Super Bowl XLVII champs Baltimore check in at fifth (.535). Four of the five easiest slates come from the AFC West.



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens




Nevada sportsbooks turn small profit from Super Bowl XLVII

02.04.2013     06:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Now that the smoke has cleared, it looks as if Baltimore's outright win and the game going over the total helped Nevada sportsbooks turn a small profit. Had San Francisco punched in six late and won by two or three, the books reportedly would have crushed.


“We’re a small winner,” reported Jimmy Vaccaro, the spokesman for William Hill sports books. “We ended up with some Ravens moneyline late, so that took some of our steam out. But we did OK.”

“If everyone did what we did, then I would expect we’d break the record,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. “We fared pretty well, but it’s difficult to say how everyone else did. There’s a strong possibility that some of the local places could have seen more Ravens money.”

“The props were a very small winner,” Vaccaro said. “The Kaepernick kid didn’t help. The safety and touchdown were two of the bigger ones of the day and we lost both of them, but we beat most of the other Read more



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII




NFL Handicapping: Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31...Ravens Win Super Bowl XLVII

02.04.2013     06:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Congratulations to all who won last night. Sincere condolences to all who lost (unless you did so with arrogant posturing through the week, then you got what you deserved!). Let’s crunch the numbers…

Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31

Total Yardage: Baltimore 367, San Francisco 468

Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.2, San Francisco 7.8

Rushing Yards: Baltimore 93, San Francisco 182

Passing Line: Baltimore 22-33-0-274, San Francisco 16-28-1-286

Turnovers: Baltimore 1, San Francisco 2

Third Downs: Baltimore 56%, San Francisco 22%

Sloppiness: Baltimore 16, San Francisco 22

Drive Points: Baltimore 10, San Francisco 13

Cheap Points: Baltimore 24, San Francisco 18

(If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more….sloppiness is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes).

Some Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




Post-Super Bowl XLVII Betting Trends

02.04.2013     06:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are a few betting trend updates following last night's Super XLVII win for the underdog Baltimore Ravens.

Joe Flacco's MVP marked the fourth straight for a quarterback and sixth in the last seven years.

The prop bet "Will There Be Three Unanswered Scores?" cashed for a 33rd time and now has an over 70% success rate historically.

Baltimore's win marked yet another spread victory for the lower seeded team (Ravens AFC No. 4, 49ers NFC No. 2). Dating back to 1996, lower seeded teams are 13-2-2 ATS.

Underdogs have now covered nine of the last 12 Super Bowls. Six of those teams won outright.



Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVII Baltimore Ravens




Sportsmemo's last minute guide to betting Super Bowl XLVII

02.03.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick rundown of our Super Bowl XLVII blog coverage including free prop bet recommendations from the Sportsmemo Handicappers. Enjoy.

Let's Talk About the 49ers' Defense

Baltimore's Disruptive Defense

Oddsmakers hope to avoid San Francisco/Over combo

A really long list of places to go see the game in Las Vegas

Super Bowl MVP History

Read more


Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII




Super Bowl XLVII Gambling: Let's Talk About the 49ers' Defense

02.02.2013     09:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m starting to hear a lot of chatter about how San Francisco’s defense is going to be the deciding factor in Sunday’s Super Bowl meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. While the team certainly has a top-notch defense, it may not be quite as dominating as you were thinking.

It’s easy to remember the highlights from the past season…where the Niners embarrassed teams like the Jets, Bills, and even the Bears in a big TV game. But, when facing elite offenses, it’s been a slightly different story.

Here’s what opposing offenses from PLAYOFF teams did against San Francisco’s defense this season starting with their season opener at Green Bay, and ending with their NFC Championship win over Atlanta. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored or allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. The average this year was around 13 per offense per game. Note that the chart below deletes non-offensive scoring (for example...Green Bay had a Read more


Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bet Recommendation: Total Sacks by Both Teams

02.01.2013     08:00 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Total Sacks by Both Teams
Recommendation: Under 4.5 (-150 @ CRIS)


Neither one of these quarterbacks has been sacked much lately, and the pass rush for both teams has not been great as well. Colin Kaepernick has obviously shown that he is not afraid to tuck the ball and run, and he is also not given the opportunity to stand in the pocket and go through a long progression of receivers. Most of San Francisco’s pass plays are read and throw, or read and run, and as a result, Kaepernick has been sacked exactly one time in each of his last five games. Joe Flacco is also making quick decisions in the pocket and getting good protection from his offensive line. He has been sacked just four times in his last four games, not counting the throw away game against Cincinnati in the season finale when he barely played. With both teams placing an emphasis on running the ball, there should be fewer opportunities for the quarterbacks to be sacked. I see lots of value with under 4.5. 




Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Brent Crow



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 28, 2014 03:28 PM.