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Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Report Will Be Released Today!

07.30.2013     06:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Click here to purchase

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Below is the written analysis Teddy provided to his clients with last year's O/U Win Report. He went 4-0-1 with his recommendations.


2012 NFL Season Win Total Report: Part 1

All lines in this report are current as of 10 AM Pacific on Tuesday, July 31st.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.  I used seven offshore sports books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker, Greek, Bovada, Grande, ABC Islands and WSEX ) as fodder for my ‘best available current line’, but there’s no reason to think that you won’t be able to find a better number elsewhere – line shoppers are routinely rewarded in the Over-Under win total marketplace. 

Each and every one of these numbers is also available at the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, but I used the offshore numbers in this report knowing that many clients don’t have access to the Vegas numbers.  It is VERY important to get the win totals posted on this report – a half game can make an enormous difference, Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers Las Vegas Wise Guys Report: NFL Season O/U Wins

07.15.2013     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve written a couple of columns about the first NFL win totals posted here in Las Vegas. Now that the betting markets are starting to mature, it’s time to take another look at the Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams for the coming year. This week’s focus is on strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign.

I closed out my last column on NFL win totals by looking back at last year’s final strength of schedule, based on my power rating numbers for each opponent on the week that the game was played. Here was my final assessment:

“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for 2013.”

That Read more


Tags: NFL Season Wins Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins

07.08.2013     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.  We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.  The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.   The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month. 

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.  Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.  You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An in-depth look at the Kansas City Chiefs

06.17.2013     10:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s never too early to start talking NFL. While the casual bettor may not pay attention until the start of the preseason in August, the wiseguys here in Vegas have already done their homework, ready to take advantage of early NFL betting opportunities as they present themselves over the next few months.

I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that isn’t happening quickly – most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. So, instead of writing about season wins over the next two weeks, I’ll be writing about two teams that set the tone for the entire market – the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

I’ve chosen the Chiefs and the Ravens very specifically, because those two teams are the best examples of what the market looks for when adjusting power ratings way up or way down from one season to the next. Why are the markets so high on Kansas City and so low on Baltimore to enter the 2013 preseason? Read on to find out. This week, I’ll take an in depth look at the Chiefs.

Kansas City Read more


Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins

06.03.2013     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.”  I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.

I closed out the article with these two paragraphs: “The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played.  The Saints weren’t far behind.  Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.

“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league.  Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates.  In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL-run website covers Las Vegas sportsbook odds

05.21.2013     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This has happened before, but we still find it humorous. On the Baltimore Ravens' official website, which is obviously a part of NFL.com, a beat writer runs through some of the 2013 season over/under wins provided by Las Vegas sportsbooks. The over/under on the article getting pulled down is 10.5un-120 hours.



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens




NFL Handicapping: 2013-14 Schedule with Week 1 Power Ratings

04.19.2013     06:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here's a link to 2013-14 NFL schedule. The season opens up September 5 with the defending champion Baltimore Ravens traveling to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos. Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno already has his Week 1 Power Ratings posted. Later today, LVH is expected to post Week 1 lines of which we'll try to link to or post in the forum.



Tags: NFL Rob Veno




NFL Handicapping: 2013-14 Strength of Schedule

02.15.2013     11:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Link to the NFL's generic strength of schedule for 2013-14 (by generic we mean opponents' records from this past season). Carolina tops the list at .534 (138-116-2). Super Bowl XLVII champs Baltimore check in at fifth (.535). Four of the five easiest slates come from the AFC West.



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens




Nevada sportsbooks turn small profit from Super Bowl XLVII

02.04.2013     06:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Now that the smoke has cleared, it looks as if Baltimore's outright win and the game going over the total helped Nevada sportsbooks turn a small profit. Had San Francisco punched in six late and won by two or three, the books reportedly would have crushed.


“We’re a small winner,” reported Jimmy Vaccaro, the spokesman for William Hill sports books. “We ended up with some Ravens moneyline late, so that took some of our steam out. But we did OK.”

“If everyone did what we did, then I would expect we’d break the record,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. “We fared pretty well, but it’s difficult to say how everyone else did. There’s a strong possibility that some of the local places could have seen more Ravens money.”

“The props were a very small winner,” Vaccaro said. “The Kaepernick kid didn’t help. The safety and touchdown were two of the bigger ones of the day and we lost both of them, but we beat most of the other Read more



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 28, 2014 04:04 AM.