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NFL Handicpaping: Week 2 Betting and Statistical Recap

09.16.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

San Diego 33 (+7.5), Philadelphia 30

S-Diego: 539 yards, 6.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 67% third downs

Philadel: 511 yards, 8.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 45% third downs

(Whoever had the ball last was going to win, because both offenses were getting enough YPP at will to move the ball into scoring position. First glaring sign of Philly’s defensive weaknesses this Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at New York Giants

09.11.2013     12:13 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver at New York Giants
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -6 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: Denver -4 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -3
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

The betting markets aren’t used to NFL totals in the mid-50’s.  And there’s a significant sentiment among sharp bettors that NFL totals this high are one-way-only bets – they’re either taking the Under, or passing on the total.  A decade ago, I was one of those bettors who wouldn’t touch anything Over 52 in this league.  But in the modern NFL, that’s a flawed strategy, in my opinion.
Look no further than the TV games from last week.  We had five national TV games on opening weekend: Broncos – Ravens, 49ers – Packers, Giants – Cowboys, Redskins – Eagles and Chargers – Texans.  All five FLEW over the total, by 27, 15, 17, 8 and 15 Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New York Giants Teddy Covers




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 1

09.10.2013     03:11 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cause for concern for the defending champs
Most people knew there would be an adjustment period for the Baltimore Ravens after many changes during the offseason but the holes were very much evident following their humbling 49-27 season opening loss in Denver. The Ravens offense had a solid first half but simply died from the moment that both starting right tackle Michael Oher and receiver Jacoby Jones left the game with injuries. Oher’s injury isn’t serious but Jones will be sidelined for approximately 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. From that point of the game, the Ravens offense stalled repeatedly. Denver keyed in on the ground game and shut down running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Meanwhile, players like Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson proved they were not ready to step up and fill the production void left by the injuries to Jones and Dennis Pitta as well as the departed Anquan Boldin. That allowed Denver to focus their attention defensively on Torrey Smith and nobody else was able to step up for the Ravens in the receiving corps. Clark and Dickson both dropped multiple passes thrown to them by Joe Flacco. Baltimore’s secondary also Read more


Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




NFL Betting Recap: Manning Up...Broncos Avenge Playoff Loss in 49-27 Win over Ravens

09.06.2013     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A hard-hitting and exciting first half turned out to be the highlight of the first NFL game of the 2013 season. Denver would take advantage of Baltimore miscues to blow the game open (leading to a huge statistical performance for Peyton Manning). It turned Denver's way with this sequence:

*Baltimore’s Dallas Clark drops a sure TD pass with a few seconds left in the first half. Baltimore has to settle for a field goal and a 17-14 halftime lead.

*Baltimore forces a punt on Denver’s first series of the second half. But, the refs don’t see it that way and give the Broncos a first down on a pass Wes Welker didn’t actually catch before the ball hit the ground. Ravens coach John Harbaugh didn’t challenge in time (Manning got to the line quickly and ran a play). It was going to be Baltimore leading 17-14 with the ball (and it could have been 21-14). Instead, Denver scored a TD three plays later for a 21-17 advantage.

*Baltimore goes 3-and-out Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting Consensus: OVER the popular play for tonight's Ravens vs. Broncos matchup

09.05.2013     12:38 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Denver -7 O/U 48

Here are the current consensus numbers for tonight's NFL regular season opener between Baltimore and Denver courtesy of Bookmaker and Sports Options. Note that Bookmaker's percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Side
Bookmaker: Denver -7 (-120) 51.2%
Sports Options: Denver -7/-7.5 53%

Moneyline
Bookmaker: Baltimore +270 57.7%
Sports Options: Baltimore +270 56%

Total
Bookmaker: OVER 47.5 83.5%
Sports Options: OVER 48//48.5/49 75%

Line History: Back in late May, Bookmaker (CRIS's little brother) opened Denver -8.5 and it was bet up to -9 where it sat for virtually the entire summer. But over the last week or so, money has steadily come in on Baltimore in part because of injuries to Champ Bailey (foot, out) and Von Miller (suspension, out). Currently, most offshore shops are showing Denver -7 with -115/-120 Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens




NFL Betting Trends: Week 1 Thursday stand-alone home teams

09.03.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
Solid trend here with NFL home teams playing Week 1 Thursday stand-alone games currently 9-1 SU, 6-2-2 ATS. The Denver Broncos obviously fit the profile for Thursday's game against the Baltimore Ravens.

NFL Week 1 Thursday Home Teams
Date
Team
Opponent
Score
Line
SU
ATS
9/5/02
Giants
49ers
13-16
3.5
Loss
Win
9/4/03
Redskins
Jets
16-13
-3
Win
Push
9/9/04
Patriots
Colts
27-24
-3.5
Win
Loss
9/8/05
Patriots
Raiders
30-20
-7.5
Win
Win
9/7/06
Steelers
Dolphins
28-17
-1.5
Win
Win
9/6/07
Colts
Saints
41-10
-6
Win
Win
9/4/08
Giants
Redskins
16-7
-4
Win
Win
9/10/09
Steelers
Titans
13-10
-6
Win
Loss
9/9/10
Saints
Vikings
14-9
-5
Win
Push
9/8/11
Packers
Saints
42-34
-4.5
Win
Win
9/5/13
Broncos
Ravens
???
-8.5
???
???
Results
 
 
 
 
9-1
6-2-2




Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Patriots, Ravens Stunned to Learn Dress Rehearsals Were Thursday!

08.23.2013     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It would have been bad enough if crappy teams from last year were playing like this. But, the first team offenses for the two teams who played in the AFC Championship Game last year had absolute debacles playing what was supposed to be “real” football Thursday night.

*The New England Patriots committed FOUR turnovers in the first half, and went 1 of 7 on third downs on their way to a 16-3 halftime deficit in Detroit. The score would have been worse, but the Lions were having their own issues…going 2 of 9 on third downs and missing a field goal try.

*The defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens turned the ball over THREE times in the first half. Two of those were returned for touchdowns. Baltimore’s special teams also allowed a punt return TD to the Carolina Panthers. The halftime score was 24-7, with 21 of Carolina’s points coming on those non-offensive scores.
 
Not a great way for these AFC powers to set the tone for Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New England Patriots Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Recap: Browns and Eagles win and cover, Falcons and Chargers cash as dogs

08.16.2013     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run some numbers from Thursday's four-game slate. We’ll take the matchups in rotation order…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Cleveland 24 (-1.5), Detroit 6

Total Yardage: Detroit 226, Cleveland 321

Passing Stats: Detroit 26-38-0-175, Cleveland 21-29-0-242

Turnovers: Detroit 0, Cleveland 0

Drive Points: Detroit 3, Cleveland 14

Stat Score: Detroit 12, Cleveland 18

Cleveland has a quarterback war, and a new coach who wants immediate results…which is often a great recipe for preseason success. Well, maybe not for the first half of the dress rehearsal game (next week at Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Gambling: Tampa Bay looks to get reserves plenty of work

08.07.2013     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay -3 O/U 35.5

According to Tampa Bay head coach Greg Schiano the starters will "play some" in Thursday's game against Baltimore. It sounds as if Schiano is more interested in seeing his backups, most notably quarterbacks Mike Glennon and Dan Orlovsky.


“Everyone is going to be different,’’ Schiano said. “With every player, we’ve created an individual plan for them, especially the starters, regarding how many (plays) we feel they need and in what roles. Because some guys are trying new roles. For example, (safety) Mark Barron is playing in the dime package now so we want to make sure he gets a couple of shots at playing the dime.’’



 



Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baltimore Ravens




NFL Preseason Betting: Baltimore not ready to divulge game plan

08.07.2013     06:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay -3 O/U 35.5

For NFL preseason bettors, there is nothing worse than a coach who decided to play coy with his game plan. Here we have Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh acting like a reporter just asked him for the team's entire playbook (and binder).


"Yeah, we're not going to play the starters for the whole game," Harbaugh said. "How much we play them remains to be seen. We've got a plan. It's a little different because we play on Thursday, so we play a little bit sooner than we play most years."

"Right now, we're planning on playing guys," Harbaugh said.





Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Tampa Bay Buccaneers



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