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December

21

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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds

07.26.2014     09:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Washington (Gonzalez) +105 at Cincinnati (Cueto) O/U 7
Recommendation: Washington


My clients and I have cashed several winning bets against the Reds during their current 0-7 post-All Star Break slide. Cincinnati remains an overvalued, ice cold ‘bet-against’ squad today, even with ace Johnny Cueto on the hill.  The Reds lineup defines the word ‘anemic’ these days, held to three runs or less in every loss; scoring just 13 runs overall during this seven game skid. With Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto on the DL, I’m not expecting any sort of immediate turnaround either.

The advanced metric stats clearly show that Cueto is due for some regression.  His .228 BABIP (batting average allowed on balls Read more







MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

07.25.2014     10:18 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Hammel) -170 at Texas (Williams) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over


Not so sure A’s RH starter Jason Hammel’s return to the American League will be as good of a thing as the club may have thought it would be. Hammel’s initial start as an AL pitcher versus an AL club (albeit one that knew him) was a disaster as Baltimore lit him up for five runs and six hits in two innings. Hammel needed 58 pitches to get through that pair of innings and despite facing the drastically different Texas lineup tonight, the feeling here is he’ll have difficulties again. Even deeper than the switch back to facing nine hitter AL offenses, the last couple of starts by Hammel hint that a regression is taking place. Combined over his last two outings, he’s posted these numbers: 7 IP / 12 H / 7 ER / 5 BB-5K / 3HR / 22.43 PPI / 2.43 WHIP / 9.00 ERA. Figure Texas to notch 4+ runs tonight even with their novice laden lineup. Oakland on the other hand should have no problem with the Rangers journeyman fill-in starter Jerome Williams. Williams has struggled this year out of the Read more


Tags: MLB Oakland Athletics Texas Rangers Rob Veno




MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Seattle Mariners

07.22.2014     09:02 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (DeGrom) at Seattle (Ramirez) -110 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Seattle


The Seattle Mariners got the job last night against the NY Mets in a 5-2 win. The score wasn't indicative of the game as the Mariners hit the ball all over the park on Mets starter Jon Niese and deserved to put up more runs.  Seattle has been able to hang around the wildcard playoff race with a 53-46 record.  Playing in the difficult AL West has been a challenge, but the starting pitching has been Seattle's saving grace.  The Mariners have Erasmo Ramirez on the mound tonight as they look to rest over worked starters Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma another day.  Ramirez hasn't had the prettiest of starts this season, but he has turned the corner as of late giving up just two earned runs in his last four starts.  Jacob deGrom takes the hill for the Mets tonight and this young starter has been impressive at times.  The Mets just don't have the bats to take advantage of a weaker Read more


Tags: MLB New York Mets Seattle Mariners Sammy P




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

07.22.2014     08:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) +140 at St. Louis (Wainwright) O/U 7
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All-Star Break.  These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so.
 
For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite.  Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one.  There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox Read more


Tags: MLB Tampa Rays St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

07.19.2014     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle (Hernandez) at LA Angels (Richards) -105 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Under


Expecting a playoff atmosphere is Anaheim tonight with the Mariners and Angels sending their two respective aces to the hill. Back in early May, Felix Hernandez had one of their weirdest outings of his career where he failed to record a strikeout in a 6.1 inning outing against Oakland. Since then, he's been arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.77 ERA and incredible 101-13 K-to-BB ratio over 12 starts. In two games vs. the Angels this season, the King has been dominant with only three earned runs and 20 strikeouts in 14.2 IP. Garrett Richards may be new to the "elite scene" but his stuff is as good as anyone in baseball. He too has been dialed in with a stellar 1.27 ERA over his last eight outings. Richards is on pace for a 200-inning season so there's slight concern for some sort of swoon or dead arm period but he's been able to maintain his velocity and comes into tonight's game off Read more


Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Schedule becomes Baltimore's biggest obstacle

07.17.2014     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Baltimore Orioles own a four-game lead in the American League East and are a -120 favorite to win the division (5Dimes) but due to their second half strength of schedule, bettors may want to take a look at the odds for the other four teams (a bet on the field is only -120). The O's open the second half with a 10-game West Coast road trip against Oakland (No. 1 in MLB in run differential), LA Angels (No. 2 run diff), and Seattle (No. 4 run diff). They then return home to play six more against the Angels and Mariners. Then there is a make-up game vs. Washington (No. 3 run diff) and three-game sets at Toronto and vs. St. Louis. As pointed out my ESPN's Buster Olney, Baltimore's first 26 out of the All-Star break are against teams with records of .500 or better. And we'll also point out their 36/32 road game/home game split as well as the seven-game road trip against the Blue Jays and Yankees to close the season – which could determine the East winner and/or a wild card berth.



Tags: MLB




MLB Gambling: Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins

07.17.2014     05:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
5Dimes has posted adjusted MLB Season Over/Under Wins. We stacked them up with LVH's original full season numbers as well as each team's current record. Coupled with 5Dimes' divisional odds you can get an idea of the betting markets’ second half projections. For example, St. Louis (1 game behind Milwaukee) is expected to win the National League Central by three games. The Cardinals are +125 to win the Central while the Brewers are +240. Similar situation in the NL East with Washington and Atlanta currently tied (Washington has played two fewer games). The Nationals are lined 88.5 adjusted and the Braves 86.5. The Nats are a -185 division favorite. In the AL East, Baltimore owns a four-game lead and is a -120 division favorite. The Orioles however have what many are calling a brutal second half schedule.

2014 MLB Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins
Team
LVH
5Dimes Adjusted
1st Half Record
Arizona
80
71.5un-160
40-56
Atlanta
87.5
86.5ov-185
52-43
Baltimore
78
85.5
52-42
Boston
87.5
76.5ov-145
43-52
Chicago Cubs
68.5
70.5
40-54
Chicago White Sox
77
76.5
45-51
Cincinnati
83.5
86.5un-160
51-44
Cleveland
80
80.5-160
47-47
Colorado
75.5
70.5
40-55
Detroit
89.5
90.5ov-210
53-38
Houston
63.5
66.5ov-160
40-56
Kansas City
79.5
82.5un-140
48-46
LA Angels
87.5
94.5ov-160
57-37
LA Dodgers
93.5
90.5ov-170
54-43
Miami
69.5
74.5un-160
44-50
Milwaukee
79.5
85.5un-130
53-43
Minnesota
71.5
74.5ov-160
44-50
NY Mets
73.5
77.5un-190
45-50
NY Yankees
85.5
81.5
47-47
Oakland
89
98.5un-160
59-36
Philadelphia
76
72.5
42-53
Pittsburgh
84.5
84
49-46
San Diego
78.5
72.5un-140
41-54
San Francisco
85.5
86.5
52-43
Seattle
80.5
85.5ov-130
51-44
St. Louis
91.5
88.5un-160
52-44
Tampa Bay
87.5
77.5un-140
44-53
Texas
86.5
68.5un-160
38-57
Toronto
79.5
83.5ov-145
49-47
Washington
87.5
88.5ov-160
51-42




Tags: MLB




MLB Handicapping: Giants have second half scheduling edge over Dodgers

07.16.2014     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After a torrid start to the season, the San Francisco Giants fell hard and come out the All-Star break one game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. But on paper, the second half schedule looks to heavily favor the Giants.

The Dodgers open with a nine-game road trip (at St. Louis, at Pittsburgh, and at San Francisco) and then return home for a three-game set vs. Atlanta. After a three-game series vs. the Cubs, LA plays its next 11 games vs. the Angels, Brewers, and Atlanta -- nine of those 11 on the highway. They also play six of their nine games vs. San Francisco on the road.

The Giants meanwhile don't play Atlanta or St. Louis and have 11 games vs. Philadelphia and New York. And 13 of their final 19 games are against Arizona and San Diego. The Dodgers do have the benefit of play the Giants and Rockies at home the final seven games of the year.




Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Los Angeles Dodgers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

07.13.2014     08:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Martinez) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -115 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under


Two “premium stuff” arms take the hill this afternoon in Milwaukee.  St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez averages 98 mph with is fastball, while also offering a sinker, change-up and slurve.  He’s not a household name – yet – but owns some of the nastiest stuff around for a starting pitcher in the National League.  His repertoire is especially lethal on the right-handed bat, which is a perfect fit against the Brewers.  In his early career, Martinez owns a huge split with right-handers slugging just .276 against him, while left-handers see him much better at .469.  Meanwhile, Wily Peralta will take the bump for the Brew Crew.  Peralta deals off a sinker that averages 97 mph with a slider and still-developing change-up.  When Peralta’s right the sinker is all he needs, while garnering groundball after groundball.  Importantly, Peralta Read more


Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Erin Rynning




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies

07.12.2014     08:33 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Correia) at Colorado (Matzek) -145 O/U 10.5
Recommendation: Over


It is scary to think that Colorado rookie Tyler Matzek has a 5.89 ERA in Coors Field and yet has allowed only one home run. Yes, it's only three starts but Matzek is already showing signs of not being an ideal fit for Denver. In 35 innings of work, Matzek flashes a 22-11 K-to-BB ratio as well as a 44% groundball rate. He's a first round draft pick and only 23 years old so I'll leave the door open for success down the road. But right now, expect the struggles to continue. Like Matzek, Minnesota's Kevin Correia has been fortunate with the long ball. The fly balling Correia has tossed 103.1 innings, struck out only 49, and allowed only 11 home runs. Putting a guy like that in Coors Field is a recipe for disaster – or in our case, celebration. Bottom line is we have two mediocre, pitch-to-contact, fly ball pitchers with a total of less than 11. Hope we can avoid the rain and get this one OVER the Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange



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