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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

07.19.2014     08:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Seattle (Hernandez) at LA Angels (Richards) -105 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Under


Expecting a playoff atmosphere is Anaheim tonight with the Mariners and Angels sending their two respective aces to the hill. Back in early May, Felix Hernandez had one of their weirdest outings of his career where he failed to record a strikeout in a 6.1 inning outing against Oakland. Since then, he's been arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.77 ERA and incredible 101-13 K-to-BB ratio over 12 starts. In two games vs. the Angels this season, the King has been dominant with only three earned runs and 20 strikeouts in 14.2 IP. Garrett Richards may be new to the "elite scene" but his stuff is as good as anyone in baseball. He too has been dialed in with a stellar 1.27 ERA over his last eight outings. Richards is on pace for a 200-inning season so there's slight concern for some sort of swoon or dead arm period but he's been able to maintain his velocity and comes into tonight's game off Read more


Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Schedule becomes Baltimore's biggest obstacle

07.17.2014     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Baltimore Orioles own a four-game lead in the American League East and are a -120 favorite to win the division (5Dimes) but due to their second half strength of schedule, bettors may want to take a look at the odds for the other four teams (a bet on the field is only -120). The O's open the second half with a 10-game West Coast road trip against Oakland (No. 1 in MLB in run differential), LA Angels (No. 2 run diff), and Seattle (No. 4 run diff). They then return home to play six more against the Angels and Mariners. Then there is a make-up game vs. Washington (No. 3 run diff) and three-game sets at Toronto and vs. St. Louis. As pointed out my ESPN's Buster Olney, Baltimore's first 26 out of the All-Star break are against teams with records of .500 or better. And we'll also point out their 36/32 road game/home game split as well as the seven-game road trip against the Blue Jays and Yankees to close the season – which could determine the East winner and/or a wild card berth.



Tags: MLB




MLB Gambling: Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins

07.17.2014     05:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
5Dimes has posted adjusted MLB Season Over/Under Wins. We stacked them up with LVH's original full season numbers as well as each team's current record. Coupled with 5Dimes' divisional odds you can get an idea of the betting markets’ second half projections. For example, St. Louis (1 game behind Milwaukee) is expected to win the National League Central by three games. The Cardinals are +125 to win the Central while the Brewers are +240. Similar situation in the NL East with Washington and Atlanta currently tied (Washington has played two fewer games). The Nationals are lined 88.5 adjusted and the Braves 86.5. The Nats are a -185 division favorite. In the AL East, Baltimore owns a four-game lead and is a -120 division favorite. The Orioles however have what many are calling a brutal second half schedule.

2014 MLB Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins
Team
LVH
5Dimes Adjusted
1st Half Record
Arizona
80
71.5un-160
40-56
Atlanta
87.5
86.5ov-185
52-43
Baltimore
78
85.5
52-42
Boston
87.5
76.5ov-145
43-52
Chicago Cubs
68.5
70.5
40-54
Chicago White Sox
77
76.5
45-51
Cincinnati
83.5
86.5un-160
51-44
Cleveland
80
80.5-160
47-47
Colorado
75.5
70.5
40-55
Detroit
89.5
90.5ov-210
53-38
Houston
63.5
66.5ov-160
40-56
Kansas City
79.5
82.5un-140
48-46
LA Angels
87.5
94.5ov-160
57-37
LA Dodgers
93.5
90.5ov-170
54-43
Miami
69.5
74.5un-160
44-50
Milwaukee
79.5
85.5un-130
53-43
Minnesota
71.5
74.5ov-160
44-50
NY Mets
73.5
77.5un-190
45-50
NY Yankees
85.5
81.5
47-47
Oakland
89
98.5un-160
59-36
Philadelphia
76
72.5
42-53
Pittsburgh
84.5
84
49-46
San Diego
78.5
72.5un-140
41-54
San Francisco
85.5
86.5
52-43
Seattle
80.5
85.5ov-130
51-44
St. Louis
91.5
88.5un-160
52-44
Tampa Bay
87.5
77.5un-140
44-53
Texas
86.5
68.5un-160
38-57
Toronto
79.5
83.5ov-145
49-47
Washington
87.5
88.5ov-160
51-42




Tags: MLB




MLB Handicapping: Giants have second half scheduling edge over Dodgers

07.16.2014     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After a torrid start to the season, the San Francisco Giants fell hard and come out the All-Star break one game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. But on paper, the second half schedule looks to heavily favor the Giants.

The Dodgers open with a nine-game road trip (at St. Louis, at Pittsburgh, and at San Francisco) and then return home for a three-game set vs. Atlanta. After a three-game series vs. the Cubs, LA plays its next 11 games vs. the Angels, Brewers, and Atlanta -- nine of those 11 on the highway. They also play six of their nine games vs. San Francisco on the road.

The Giants meanwhile don't play Atlanta or St. Louis and have 11 games vs. Philadelphia and New York. And 13 of their final 19 games are against Arizona and San Diego. The Dodgers do have the benefit of play the Giants and Rockies at home the final seven games of the year.




Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Los Angeles Dodgers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

07.13.2014     08:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Martinez) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -115 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under


Two “premium stuff” arms take the hill this afternoon in Milwaukee.  St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez averages 98 mph with is fastball, while also offering a sinker, change-up and slurve.  He’s not a household name – yet – but owns some of the nastiest stuff around for a starting pitcher in the National League.  His repertoire is especially lethal on the right-handed bat, which is a perfect fit against the Brewers.  In his early career, Martinez owns a huge split with right-handers slugging just .276 against him, while left-handers see him much better at .469.  Meanwhile, Wily Peralta will take the bump for the Brew Crew.  Peralta deals off a sinker that averages 97 mph with a slider and still-developing change-up.  When Peralta’s right the sinker is all he needs, while garnering groundball after groundball.  Importantly, Peralta Read more


Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Erin Rynning




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies

07.12.2014     08:33 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota (Correia) at Colorado (Matzek) -145 O/U 10.5
Recommendation: Over


It is scary to think that Colorado rookie Tyler Matzek has a 5.89 ERA in Coors Field and yet has allowed only one home run. Yes, it's only three starts but Matzek is already showing signs of not being an ideal fit for Denver. In 35 innings of work, Matzek flashes a 22-11 K-to-BB ratio as well as a 44% groundball rate. He's a first round draft pick and only 23 years old so I'll leave the door open for success down the road. But right now, expect the struggles to continue. Like Matzek, Minnesota's Kevin Correia has been fortunate with the long ball. The fly balling Correia has tossed 103.1 innings, struck out only 49, and allowed only 11 home runs. Putting a guy like that in Coors Field is a recipe for disaster – or in our case, celebration. Bottom line is we have two mediocre, pitch-to-contact, fly ball pitchers with a total of less than 11. Hope we can avoid the rain and get this one OVER the Read more


Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

07.11.2014     08:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington (Zimmermann) -140 at Philadelphia (Burnett) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Washington


Since the beginning of June, Jordan Zimmermann has been as good as any pitcher in baseball.  In seven starts, he has a 1.26 ERA with a 46-7 strikeout to walk ratio in 50 innings of work.  Zimmermann won 19 games last year and ranked among the best pitchers in baseball with a 4.4 WAR and 2.94 ERA in 2012. This hot streak is no fluke.

Zimmermann’s quote sums it up well: “I just started throwing strikes and locating better. The slider finally came back. I didn't have it for a month and a half. I was able to get that back. That's a big pitch."

His streak started with a dominating performance against the same Phillies lineup he’ll face today, throwing eight innings of shutout ball.  He certainly shut down Philadelphia on a consistent basis last year, allowing only four earned runs while notching three wins in four starts against Read more


Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

07.11.2014     07:55 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona (Bolsinger) at -San Francisco (Lincecum) -150 O/U 7
Recommendation: San Francisco


There are a lot of conflicting angles when it comes to judging Arizona's Mike Bolsinger. On one hand he flashes a sexy sabermetric profile of a pitcher who gets groundballs (53.9%), sports an unlucky BABIP (.347), and misses a fair amount of bats (8.18 Ks per 9). But I've watched enough of his starts to know that he's a fringe arm and wouldn't sniff a spot in the rotation if not for all of Arizona's injuries and shortcomings. If he pitches the rest of the year I firmly expect his "impressive" xFIP (3.33) to creep toward his sub-par ERA (5.13) and not the other way around. Despite San Francisco trending in the wrong direction, Tim Lincecum has upped his game with only one earned run in his last three starts. Two of those were against weak hitting San Diego but he appears to finally be in solid form after a rough start to the season. After losing three of four to rival Oakland, the Giants have a good chance to rebound with a three-game set vs. Arizona before the All-Star Read more


Tags: MLB Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Molina's injury comes at bad time for Cardinals

07.10.2014     03:26 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks like St. Louis will be without All-Star catcher Yadier Molina (thumb) for 8-12 weeks. Molina obviously impacts the game a number of ways. For starters he’s an underrated commodity offensively (.287/.341/.751) – and at times has been St. Louis’ best bat. Secondly, and most obvious, is the countless ways he helps the team defensively. He all but completely shuts down opposing teams’ run games (49% caught stealing, league average 26%). And just as important is the way he handles the pitching staff. Tony Cruz is a more than adequate backup, but keep in mind the Cardinals are down three starters with Jamie Garcia, Michael Wacha, and Joe Kelly on the shelf. And Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales, Miller, and Martinez are all young and/or have had recent struggles. Molina is just the kind of catcher to help those guys power through tough situations. This year's numbers with Cruz behind the plate aren't that far removed from that of Molina – and Cruz has caught Adam Wainwright only once. But last year, with a larger sample size, the team's ERA with Read more


Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

07.10.2014     10:53 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Volquez) at St. Louis (Miller) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


St. Louis has given Pittsburgh starter Edinson Volquez fits over the years with Volquez owning a 5.58 ERA in 13 career outings. Volquez has allowed two runs over his last 21 innings of work which is impressive but not so much when you consider he was facing the Phillies, Mets and Rays. Volquez was hammered in his previous visit to Busch Stadium this season allowing 6 runs on 7 hits in 5.2 innings. The Cardinals have finally found some traction offensively scoring 4+ runs in four of their last five games and should match up well here. Shelby Miller has certainly come back down to earth having allowed 16 runs on 29 hits in 19.1 innings over his last four starts and he's walked as many batters as he's struck out. Pittsburgh will never be known as an explosive offense but they have had some previous success against Miller particularly last year and this will be their third time facing him this season so I expect the Read more


Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Ian Cameron



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