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NCAA Football Handicapping: Injuries the storyline for Ohio State-California

09.12.2013     02:06 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Ohio State -15.5 at California O/U 64

It’s been well documented in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum and today's Sportsmemo Podcast (listen here) that Cal is one banged up football team, particularly on the defensive side of the football. As many as five projected starters from the stop unit missed last week's game against Portland State – Cal hung on for a 37-30 win but the Pilots racked up 553 yards on a staggering 8.1 yards per play. Some of those players are now questionable while others remain out for Saturday's contest against Ohio State.

-"You look out there, and you haven't played with any of those guys. It's a little

Read more

Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12 Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten

College Football Betting: Week 3 Injury Report

09.11.2013     11:59 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Louisiana Tech sophomore running back Kenneth Dixon enjoyed a banner freshman campaign, rushing for 1,194 yards and 27 touchdowns while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Dixon sustained a knee injury in last week’s 27-14 win over Lamar and he’s questionable Thursday night vs. Tulane. Even if Dixon can’t go, I don’t know that bettors should downgrade Tech’s offense. Before Dixon became the starter last season, fellow freshman Tevin King started three games and rushed for 369 yards and five TDs. King, who averaged 8.0 ypc before suffering a season-ending injury, replaced Dixon when he went down last week. He responded by exploding for 182 yard rushing on 20 carries. As of early Wednesday, most books had the Bulldogs favored by -7.5 over the Green Wave.

TCU senior quarterback Casey Pachall is out until at least late October with a forearm injury. Therefore, sophomore signal caller Trevone Boykin will get the starting nod Thursday night at Texas Tech. Boykin started nine games as a redshirt freshman in 2012. He threw for 2,054 yards with a 15/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Boykin also rushed for 417 yards and three TDs. In relief of Pachall in Read more

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards

College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 1

09.03.2013     07:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
With Penn State holding a narrow 13-10 lead late in the third quarter of Saturday's game against Syracuse, the Orange came up with a forced fumble on big PSU pass play. Syracuse's Allen Robinson looked like he had a clear lane to the end zone, a score that would have given his team a 17-13 lead. Instead, PSU offensive tackle Garry Gilliam (a converted tight end) made a great open field, touchdown saving tackle. Syracuse took over at the PSU 27-yard line and ended up missing a field goal. Early in the fourth quarter, Penn State kicked a field goal, tacked on a touchdown, and held on for the 23-17 win. The Nittany Lions failed to cover (-8) but had Gilliam not made that play, the straight up outcome of the game may have been different. 

Favored by -34, Ohio State's Urban Meyer was all business (and perhaps all dick) when he went for and converted two, two-point conversions on the Buckeyes' first two touchdowns of the game. Perhaps some karma involved as Buffalo snagged an easy ATS victory in the 40-20 loss. Boosters Beware! Meyer is now 2-6 ATS when laying double-digits since arriving in Columbus.

Last season, Iowa at times toyed with the idea of Read more

Tags: College Football Andrew Lange

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

College Football Handicapping: Big 10 Stat Day

07.26.2013     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

All the major college football conferences are having “media” days (or two, or three). Since little of the media coverage coming out of those days involves stats…I’ll try to put together some “stat days” between now and the start of the season. The Big 10 is under the spotlight at the moment all over the internet. So, let’s start there.

First…a review of Big 10 offenses last year, focusing on the basic fundamentals of moving the ball and protecting it. Remember that there are now 12 teams in the Big 10. They’re ranked immediately below by yards-per-play on offense in conference play ONLY to help weed out the goofy stuff that happens against widely variant non-league schedules. That means 8 games for everybody but Wisconsin and Nebraska. They played each other in the Big 10 Championship game, so their numbers are pulled from a 9-game sampling. These are the numbers as reported by the college football stats site

Big 10 Read more

Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.02.2013     01:25 PM     Printer Friendly
Below are the Big Ten's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. It's the last season of the Leaders and Legends divisions with Rutgers and Maryland joining next season to form the more logically named East and West. As for 2013, it’s Ohio State and everyone else according to oddsmakers and the betting markets. The Buckeyes are the second choice behind Alabama for the BCS crown at 8-1, -110 to win the Big Ten Championship, and a huge -465 favorite to win the Leaders Division. The schedule sets up well with six of OSU's first eight in Columbus and winnable road games at Cal, Northwestern, Purdue and Indiana. They do however travel to Ann Arbor to close out the regular season. As for the rest of the Big Ten, Michigan State and Wisconsin are slated to improve after 6- and 7-win seasons, respectively. The Legends Division looks fairly balanced with the Spartans, Nebraska, Michigan, and Northwestern all lined at 8.5-9.5 wins. The Wolverines are the slight betting favorite at +230.

2013 Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Big Ten Leaders
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Ohio State
Penn State
Big Ten Legends
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Michigan State

Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten

College Football Betting: Expectations sky high for Ohio State Buckeyes

06.24.2013     02:26 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
It looks like oddsmakers are fairly high on the Ohio State Buckeyes heading into the 2013 campaign. Off last year's 12-0 mark with as many as nine starters back on offense, OSU is a favored to win the Big Ten Leaders Division (-465) and overall conference crown (-110). They are also second behind Alabama to win the BCS National Championship (+800). But nowhere are the Buckeyes' expectations more pronounce than the Golden Nugget's Game of the Year lines. Check 'em out...

Golden Nugget GOY (Openers)
San Diego St @ Ohio State (-21.5)
Ohio State (-21) @ California
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (-11, 45)
Ohio State (-8) @ Northwestern
Iowa @ Ohio State (-23)
Penn State @ Ohio State (-16)
Ohio State (-17) @ Purdue
Ohio State (-23) @ Illinois
Indiana @ Ohio State (-25)
Ohio State (-6, 50.5) @ Michigan

Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten

NCAA Tournament Betting Recap: Wichita State headed to Final Four

03.31.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intellience

There was a lot of chatter this year that parity in college basketball had set up a great possibility that another mid major was going to make it to the Final Four. Then it happened, the 11th most likely mid major team did it!

Mid-Major Seeds


3…New Mexico

4…Saint Louis

5…VCU, UNLV (how did UNLV get a #5 seed again??!!)

6…Memphis, Butler

7…Creighton, San Diego State

8…Colorado State

9…Wichita State, Temple

And, you can’t say it came cheap. Wichita State beat Pittsburgh as a dog…beat Gonzaga as a dog…and beat Ohio State as a dog…teams the computers had loved all season.

Current Computer Composite of “Shocked” Favorites

Gonzaga 5 in Kenpom, 7 in Sagarin, 5 in BPI

Ohio State 6 in Kenpom, 5 in Sagarin, 7 in BPI

Pittsburgh 11 in Kenpom, 14 in Sagarin, 15 in BPI

Going from Read more

Tags: College Basketball Wichita State Shockers Stat Intelligence

NCAA Tournament Gambling: Arizona's Miller and Ohio State's Matta go way back

03.26.2013     03:01 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Arizona vs. Ohio State -3.5 O/U 134

You couldn’t find two teams from different conferences that would be as familiar with what the other wants to do more than Arizona and Ohio State. Why is that, you might ask? Head coaches Sean Miller of Arizona and Thad Matta of Ohio State go back over two decades as friends and associates. They were assistants together at both Miami-Ohio and Arizona and Matta gave Miller a gig when he first took over as head coach of Xavier.

When Matta left Xavier for Ohio State his job went to Miller who eventually parlayed his solid run of success with the Musketeers into his current gig at Arizona. These two guys know each other well, they share many of the same philosophies and tactics and they have rosters that really mirror one another. And this isn’t the first time they’ve met in the NCAA Tournament: Who could forget the epic overtime thriller between Xavier and Ohio State back in 2006-07? Miller and the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Arizona Wildcats Ohio State Buckeyes Otto Sports

NCAA Tournament Gambling: Louisville, Florida, Indiana and Ohio State favored to win respective regions

03.25.2013     12:10 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are Pinnacle's updated odds to win the four regions as well as the NCAA Tournament.

Indiana +105
Miami +175
Syracuse +474
Marquette +700

Louisville -140
Duke +299
Michigan State +329
Oregon +1098

Florida -105
Kansas +225
Michigan +257
Florida Gulf Coast +1534

Ohio State +100
Arizona +205
Wichita State +335
La Salle +1000

NCAA Championship
Louisville +257
Indiana +361
Florida +483
Miami +810
Ohio State +820
Kansas +1024
Duke +1215
Michigan +1215
Michigan State +1433
Arizona +1520
Syracuse +2046
Wichita State +3037
Marquette +4091
Oregon +5063
La Salle +6075
Florida Gulf Coast +7593

Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Indiana Hoosiers Ohio State Buckeyes Florida Gators


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