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Sports Betting Podcast 6-27-2013 with Handicapper Rob Veno

06.27.2013     09:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob went through every game on the MLB card with host Andrew Lange. 

Today's segments
Rob Veno - MLB Every Game on the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB Rob Veno

MLB Betting Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

06.25.2013     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Toronto (Buehrle) at Tampa Bay (Moore) -135 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

Quietly, the Tampa Bay Rays have MLB's best numbers against left-handed pitching this season. They lead all of baseball in batting average (.287), slugging (.453), OPS (.798) and rank second in OBP (.345). The reason for their success is in part because they have the ability to stack the lineup with right-handed hitters. Last week against Andy Pettitte, eight of Tampa's nine batters came from the right side – the lone exception was James Loney who for whatever reason is hitting .358/.940 vs. southpaws. The Rays ended up pounding Pettitte for nine hits and five earned runs in an 8-3 win. Toronto's Mark Buehrle has some fairly weak splits (.285/.339/.452) vs. righties compared to lefties (.229/.283/.410). He’s been in good form of late but I really respect Tampa’s team plate approach. They aren’t the most potent offense in the league but force opposing starters to really work and typically take Read more

Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks

06.22.2013     07:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cincinnati (Leake) at Arizona (Corbin) -120 O/U 8
Recommendation: Arizona

Mike Leake has been solid this season but I notice a few that suggest there is likely to be some upcoming regression. His left of base percentage is a tad high (82.4%) but more importantly he’s managed to cut his home run/fly ball rate in half from last season. He's getting a few more groundballs this year but to allow only 7 dingers in 88.2 IP is pretty remarkable considering Leake doesn't possess plus stuff. Also note Leake's competition. Of his 13 starts against the National League, 11 came against teams that rank 9th or worse (out of 15) in OPS – that very well could be tied to the HR/FB improvement. In his two starts against quality NL offenses (St. Louis and Atlanta) Leake allowed 14 hits and 7 runs in 12 innings. Arizona, while not as potent as the Cardinals and Braves, is a step up on class compared a majority of Leake's foes.

I thought the ship had sailed on Patrick Corbin but here Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

06.18.2013     07:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago WS (Axlerod) at Minnesota (Pelfrey) -120 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Now that teams are starting to get a second crack at Chicago's Dylan Axelrod, I expect his days as a full-time starter to be numbered. In his last two starts, he saw Seattle and Toronto for a second time and the results weren't pretty. Axelrod threw 5.2 scoreless innings against the Mariners back in early April and somehow did the same two weeks ago, however, he allowed a whopping 11 base runners in 5.1 innings. Against the Blue Jays last time out, he was pounded for 8 hits and 6 runs in 4 innings. Even more alarming were the nine walks in those two outings – a clear indication teams are being patient and forcing the soft-tossing righty to come in the zone. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has nowhere to go but up and even though I've read some positives and he's coming off one of his best starts of the season (7 IP, 3 ERs, 7 Ks) were still talking about a very fringe American League arm. After throwing 5.1 Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Notes: St. Louis Cardinals steamed for second straight game

06.13.2013     09:10 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -135 at NY Mets (Harvey) O/U 6.5

If you are into fading big line moves in MLB, you've got a great opportunity this afternoon with the New York Mets. Yesterday, the St. Louis Cardinals opened -147 at Pinnacle and were bet up as high as -190 before closing -183. In percentage terms, the Cardinals went from just under a 60% bet to about 65%. The books scored big as the Mets won 5-1. Today we are seeing a similar pattern as the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright opened -113 and shot up to -140 before settling in at its current number of -132. I was initially interested in supporting St. Louis – the Mets obviously aren't very good and Matt Harvey is dealing with some back issues. But as we approach mid-June, value becomes key. Games are no longer 20 cents off of where they should be, and if you aren't able to get down on a favorable overnight line, a majority of the "good" opportunities are quickly taken out. I've talked about it on the Sportsmemo Podcast that Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers

06.11.2013     10:37 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cleveland (Kluber) at Texas (Holland)
Recommendation: Under 5.5 1st 5

I've been high on Texas' Derek Holland all season and he hasn't disappointed. At a hit and strikeout per inning – and tossing in the American League – he's proven himself to be one of the top left-handed arms in the game. Tonight he faces a Cleveland offense that is as streaky as it comes. They're currently in an eight-game slump in which the offense has produced some truly dismal splits: .211/.267/.576. Cleveland's Corey Kluber has been a pleasant surprise. The big right-handed has good stuff (9.85 Ks per 9) but has been a bit unfortunate (.341 BABIP, 4.56 ERA/2.84 xFIP). Kluber just wrapped up a four-game swatch in which he faced New York, Tampa, Boston, and Detroit and posted a rock solid stellar 29/3 K/BB ratio while allowing only 18 hits. Cleveland's bullpen isn't very trustworthy but I like both starting pitchers which got me to the window with a play under the total, first 5 innings.

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Oakland A's at Chicago White Sox

06.07.2013     06:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Oakland (Parker) at Chicago WS (Sale) -120 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under

This may be the easiest free play write-up in history in part because we are going back to the well with another Jarrod Parker/Chris Sale under the total bet. On Sunday those faced off in Oakland with a total of 7 – both teams barely got to seven hits as the A's won 2-0. Everyone knows how dominant Sale has been but Parker has quietly returned to last year's stellar form. Over his last four starts, he has allowed only 17 hits and six earned runs in 27.1 innings to go with a 21/6 K-to-BB ratio and 1.98 ERA. Obviously Cellular Field plays a bit smaller than Oakland Coliseum, however I still see two pitchers trending in a positive direction and facing two sub-par offenses. Get this Read more

Tags: MLB Oakland A's Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: New York Mets at Washington Nationals

06.05.2013     07:04 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
NY Mets (Gee) at Washington (Haren) -140 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under

I was pretty active early in the season in fading New York's Dillon Gee but after a few adjustments, an uptick in velocity, and his best start of the season, perhaps we can jump in a "buy low" on the young right-hander. Last season Gee pitched to a 4.10 ERA and 3.54 xFIP. This year's strikeout and walk numbers are almost identical and his xFIP is a respectable 4.00. He's been a little unlucky with the home run ball (1.42 per 9) and BABIP (.356). Dan Haren was also on my early season fade list and while still NL-average, like Gee, he too has pitched better than his raw numbers (5.09 ERA/4.16 xFIP). Overall I see two mediocre pitchers who are in decent form and have a chance to pitch better than their numbers because of two below average offenses. Since May 1, Washington is hitting .224/.278/.633 and averaging 3.4 runs per game. The Mets own nearly identical splits for the entire season. I’m in with a Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets Washington Nationals Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers

06.04.2013     12:14 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Moore) at Detroit (Sanchez) -140 O/U 8
Recommendation: Detroit

Over his next few starts, I'm think we'll start to see Tampa’s Matt Moore come back down to earth. Moore is currently 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA but nearly all of peripheral numbers suggest he's been fortunate. His BABIP (.201) is the lowest of any qualified starter, as is his left-on-base percentage (91.1). His xFIP (4.38) ranks 79th overall, right behind Kevin Slowey and Phil Hughes. And to top it all off, his velocity has been down a few ticks from where he was at last season. No question Moore has the makeup of being a long term, above average American League starter, but his low-2 ERA days are numbered. Meanwhile there is nothing fluky about Detroit's Anibal Sanchez. He's posted 89 strikeouts in 71 innings and two starts that produced a whopping 26 swinging strikes. Overall, Sanchez has actually outpitched his 2.79 ERA with a 2.42 xFIP. A few years ago, this line would have been close to a pick 'em but the Read more

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Tampa Bay Rays Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners

06.03.2013     07:06 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago WS (Danks) at Seattle (Saunders) -115 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Seattle

The fact that I am throwing support Joe Saunders’ way should give you a good idea of how little confidence I have in John Danks right now. Danks of course is coming off shoulder surgery and missed an entire year. In two starts since his return, the lefty has allowed six earned runs and three home runs in 10 innings against Miami and the Cubs. His average fastball in those two outings was around 88 mph and there are rumbling that at the young age of 28, Danks will need to use his “guile” rather than “stuff” to survive at the MLB level moving forward. Saunders has that whole home/road dichotomy thing working and to a certain degree it makes sense he’s had more success at home in a more pitcher friendly environment. He’s still a sub-par American League arm in my book but if I’m going to trust him, it’ll be at Safeco against a weak-hitting lineup like the Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners Andrew Lange


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