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Ivy League Betting Preview: Harvard at Princeton
02.04.2011 07:56 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Harvard at Princeton -1.5 O/U 129.5
Recommendation: Over
Only five games for Princeton this season have gone under the 130 mark. The reason is the Tigers are much improved on offense and playing at a quicker tempo. That isn't to say that tonight's game against Harvard will be a run-and-gun affair, but for the first time in a long time, Princeton actually looks to score with more than 15 seconds left on the shot clock.
Harvard is a team that likes to get up and down the floor. “We need to get a tempo we’re comfortable with,” Amaker said. “It’s been lower scoring games [versus Princeton in the past]. I think it’s important that the tempo moves a little faster...which is easier said than done with way they play.” So as you can see, we have one team that is looking to push the tempo and another, while not fast paced, on home a home court where they've had no trouble having offensive success. In six home tilts, Princeton has averaged 70.1 ppg and shot
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Tags:
Princeton Tigers
Harvard Crimson
Ivy League
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Super Bowl Prop Bet: Pittsburgh OVER 5.5 third down conversions
02.03.2011 12:10 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh Third Down Conversions O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Over 5.5 (+110 @ 5Dimes)
Roethlisberger's passing numbers on third down are simply spectacular. For the season, he was 70-for-107 65.4% with eight touchdowns and only one interceptions for a QB rating of 114.2. To put that is perspective, Big Ben's third down passing numbers were better than Manning, Brees, Rodgers and Rivers. Only Brady, who was named the league's offensive player of the year, had a higher QB rating (115.9) on third down. Let's also not forget that Roethlisberger has the ability to pick up yards with his feet; 11 rushes for 71 yards on 3rd and medium or long.
Here are some more numbers to consider: In four games without Roethlisberger, the Steelers produced games with 4, 2, 4 and 4 third down conversions. With Ben on the field, 10 of 14 games (including both in the playoffs) featured six or more third downs for an average of 6.6 per game. The Steelers were 10th in the NFL in third down attempts and fifth in
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Tags:
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Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers
Andrew Lange
Prop Bet
Ben Roethlisberger
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A closer look at the Syracuse point shaving rumors
02.02.2011 02:10 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
UPDATE
Spend five minutes Googling "Syracuse point shaving" and you'll notice the sources of information range from random posting forums to Bleacher Report (aka Wikipedia for drunk sports fans). Business Insider compiled an
"everything you need to know"
regarding the matter and refuted the claims. A sportsbook in Vegas said that they hadn't noticed any "erratic betting patters”. Various blogs have gone through the shortcomings if Scoop Jardine's play of late as well as Syracuse's dismal 7-13 ATS record. Nowhere did it mention that Syracuse lost three key starters and didn't play a true road game until January 8th.
My take? It sounds more and more like there was a disgruntled bettor(s) who failed to recognize that the Orange were overvalued, untested, and
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Andrew Lange
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CBB Handicapping: Florida continues to struggle in close games
02.02.2011 09:52 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Below is what Florida has done offensively the last five minutes of regulation in its last two games. Against Mississippi State, Florida finished 0-of-8 from the floor and 1-of-4 from the free throw line. Last night against Vanderbilt, more of the same with 0-of-7 FGs and 2-of-4 FTs.
In watching both games, it is clear that the Gators have no go-to option in crunch time. Nearly all of their offense took place 20+ feet from the basketball with players rarely if ever looking to attack the paint. Even in overtime in last night's win over Vanderbilt, the Gators seemed comfortable letting the clock churn and hoisting up low percentage jump shots.
We've seen Florida at times pick up the pace early on in games but when things get close late, Billy Donovan is very quick to call out set plays. Typically, set plays take time off the clock but they put specific players in better position to score. Donovan knows he doesn’t have the type of players who can individually break down a defense. But even as they
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Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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PAC-10 Free Betting Pick: USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins
02.02.2011 08:26 AM
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USC at UCLA -3 O/U 131.5
Recommendation: Under
The series between USC and UCLA has seen some ugly affairs of late. The Trojans have won four straight by scores of 63-52, 68-64, 67-46 and 65-55. Prior to that, UCLA won 76-60, but the low scores continued with 124, 111 and 102 points. The Bruins are playing at a faster tempo this season but it seems to me that they are comfortable letting opposing teams dictate the pace. The PAC-10 as three teams that play at a slow tempo: USC, Stanford and Arizona State. Against those three teams, UCLA produced game scores of 115, 125 and 122 (in regulation). Against the rest of the league, most of which prefers a faster tempo, the average score was 143.
USC's head coach Kevin O'Neill had this to say following a recent loss to Arizona: "This is a fact: If we don't defend, we could lose to anyone. If we do defend, we have an opportunity to beat anyone," O'Neill said. "We have no margin for error. If we don't do what we're supposed to do, then it's
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Big Ten Free Pick: Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers
02.01.2011 09:07 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Purdue at Wisconsin -5 O/U 122.5
Recommendation: Over
Purdue has played nine Big Ten games and all of them had game scores over 120. Even in a slow paced game against Penn State, the game reached 125 points. The reason isn’t necessarily tempo as Purdue is comfortable running its sets and looking for open shots. What is noticeable is the Boilermakers are actually slightly better on offense and weaker on defense compared to last season. Last season in conference play, Purdue averaged 67.4 ppg and allowed 61 ppg. This year, the offense is up to 74.8 ppg and the defense down to 66.9 ppg. In terms of field goal attempts, Purdue is averaging five more per game compared to 2009-10. Last season Purdue posted 1.10 points per possession or better in seven Big Ten games whereas they’ve already reached that mark through half as many games.
We see a similar situation with Wisconsin as scoring in conference play is slightly up (66.4 ppg vs. 64.2 ppg) and defense is slightly down (58.9 ppg
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Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Atlantic-10 Free Betting Pick: La Salle Explorers at Charlotte 49ers
01.29.2011 07:46 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
La Salle at Charlotte -2 O/U 148.5
While one of the more talented teams in the Atlantic-10, La Salle is not very smart. You've heard me say that before as we've looked to play on the Explorers in spots (first halves typically) where we can avoid their flighty nature. Today however, I'm looking to play against them. After back-to-back wins over Rhode Island and St. Joe's, La Salle travels down to play a desperate Charlotte squad. The 49ers are 1-5 in conference play but have played only two home games. In fact, they've played at Halton Arena just twice in 2011. We know the 49ers are capable, especially on their home court with wins over Tennessee and Wright State. They also beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Nothing more than a spot play as a full effort from the home side gets us the spread cover.
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Atlantic-10
Andrew Lange
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Horizon League Betting Pick: Detroit at UW-Milwaukee
01.28.2011 08:27 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Detroit at UW-Milwaukee -3 O/U 140.5
Recommendation: Over
Detroit has played nine Horizon League games with games scores in regulation of 147, 135, 146, 154, 141, 161, 146, 150 and 142. There aren't a lot of fast paced teams in the conference with the exception of Detroit and Youngstown which means the Titans have shown the ability to pull teams along. UW-Milwaukee plays at a moderate tempo (191st nationally) and at home, I don't think we'll see them try and turn this into a half court game. Against Youngstown, the Panthers won 76-67 with both teams shooting a combined 51-of-123, 41% from the floor. In their last meeting against Detroit, the game started off slow but picked up in the second half and had 146 points before going to overtime. Detroit is one of the weaker defensive teams in the Horizon, allowing seven of nine opponents to score more than a point per possession. Milwaukee meanwhile has scored more than a point per possession in all but three home games and two of those were against strong
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Andrew Lange
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When the college basketball betting market makes 2-18 a road favorite
01.28.2011 07:05 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
On last night's college basketball card, there was a fairly significant line move in a less than significant game worth pointing out. Southeast Missouri was playing host to Jacksonville State. SEMO had jumped out to a 4-2 start in Ohio Valley Conference play but came in to last night having dropped four in a row. The Redhawks were a bit thin due to injuries and suited up only eight players but based on the media reports, it wasn't anything new. Jacksonville State meanwhile was 2-18 overall and 0-9 in conference play. The Gamecocks played a couple of teams tough but their track record on the road in league play was awful and that's not even taking into account the program's decline this season. SEMO won the first meeting at JSU as a mispriced 8.5-point underdog, 76-67.
On Wednesday's overnight lines, oddsmakers opened up Southeast Missouri as a 2.5-point home favorite – a potentially short line at first glance when you consider the opposition had just one victory over a DI opponent which came back in late November. Now
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OVC Betting Preview: Austin Peay at Eastern Kentucky
01.27.2011 09:35 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Austin Peay at Eastern Kentucky pk O/U 131.5
Recommendation: Under
Eastern Kentucky as really turned things around on the defensive end of the floor over the last few weeks. There was a good two month stretch where the Colonels ranked 300th or worse nationally in defensive efficiency but they've stormed up the rankings to 225th and have really put the clamps on teams of late. During its current four-game win streak, EKU has held teams to 36.8% from the floor. The pace of those games was at a crawl and produced totals of 120, 108, 116 and 112. Tonight, Austin Peay comes to town and I expect EKU to once again show patience on offense.
In the first meeting, the Governors jumped out to an early lead and won going away 78-51. Eastern knows its best shot at victory is to make this a half court game. The other thing to consider is that EKU is not a good offensive team as evident by its 42% FG mark in conference play. With only a 50 FG per game average, it’s easy to see the reason behind the low
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Austin Peay Governors
Ohio Valley
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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