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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

05.30.2012     08:01 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona (Kennedy) at San Francisco (Lincecum) -110 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Over

Playing OVERS at AT&T Park is a tough sell. This year alone, only eight of 16 games have gone OVER the total. But with two scuffling pitchers on the hill tonight and the key number of 6.5 available at multiple shops, I think the opportunity is ripe to step in and look that way. While everything went right for Ian Kennedy in 2011, the complete opposite has been true this season. No question he's been a bit unlucky (.317 BABIP) but what we are getting now is much more realistic than the 2.88 ERA and 3.50 xFIP of 2012. I don't see how we can all of a sudden trust Tim Lincecum. Reports have come out that he is close to turning things around but he hasn't thrown a quality start since April 28. In fact, he's thrown only one quality start all season. His strikeout numbers have been fine (58 in 53.1 IP) but walks have been a major issue (4 or more in 4 of his last 7 starts). If this were last season when Read more

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamonbacks San Francisco Giants Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Alert: Tampa Bay goes left-handed heavy vs. Chicago's Humber

05.29.2012     01:55 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

Note that Tampa Bay is slated to start eight left-handed bats vs. Chicago's Phil Humber tonight. Humber shows some pretty strong splits R vs. L this season (and for his career) as seen in the chart below. The price tag on James Shields is up to a -160 so bettors may want to look the way of Tampa's team total (4ov-111 at Pinnacle, 4ov-115 at 5Dimes).


Tampa Bay's projected lineup vs. Humber
1. Carlos Pena (L) .760 OPS vs. righties
2. BJ Upton (R)
3. Matt Joyce (L) 1.021 OPS vs. righties
4. Ben Zobrist (S) .797 OPS vs. righties
5. Luke Scott (L) .890 OPS vs. righties
6. Hideki Matsui (L) .840 OPS vs. righties lifetime
7. Jose Lobaton (S) No split, only 62 career at-bats
8. Drew Sutton (S) Stronger vs. lefties
9. Elliot Johnson (S) Slightly stronger vs. lefties

Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange

Saturday MLB Free Betting Pick: San Diego Padres at New York Mets

05.26.2012     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Richard) at NY Mets -145 (Santana) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under

Let's get our day started with a free play winner in the totals market. Yesterday we talked about New York's Dillon Gee as someone who had pitched better than his ERA suggested. He delivered the goods with a 7 IP, 1 ER performance. I think the same can be said for San Diego's Clayton Richard who had a few hiccups early in the season at hitter-friendly Coors Field (8 ERs) and Citizens Bank (5 ERs). His command has improved dramatically with just six walks over his last five starts (11 his first four starts). He's always been a guy who in a neutral/spacious park can give you a quality start. Johan Santana has been a pleasant surprise this season with 53 Ks and 45 hits allowed in 50 innings. At home against a soft-hitting Padres lineup, he's in a good spot to succeed. Kind of odd that in this day in age we have two solid pitchers in a pitcher friendly stadium facing two mediocre offenses yet the total is Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres New York Mets Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: San Diego Padres at New York Mets

05.25.2012     07:23 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Bass) at NY Mets (Gee) -120 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under

Dillon Gee is an interesting case study. His ERA is currently a full run higher than last season's yet some of the numbers indicate that he is actually pitching better. His strikeout rate is up from 6.39 per 9 innings to 7.79 and his walk rate is down from 3.98 to 2.36. His BABIP of .331 and left on base pct. of 65.4% suggests he's been a bit unlucky. I'm not trying to convince the world this guy is a sleeping giant but when looking at tonight's matchup at home against San Diego, I feel confident Gee is in a position to succeed. San Diego's Anthony Bass doesn't garner a lot of attention but according to some of the numbers I use in my handicap of pitchers, he's currently one of the better starters in baseball. Don't think we'll see a 7.5 on this game, but under 7 at even money is worth a bet.

Lange 20* AL Central Game of the Year [Top Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres New York Mets Andrew Lange

Las Vegas' biggest jackpot winners

05.23.2012     10:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Las Vegas Sun lists some of the biggest casino wins of all-time.

2003: Dude wins $39.7 million on a slot machine at Excalibur. His odds were reportedly one in 16.7 million.

2003: Cocktail waitress wins $34.9 million on a slot machine at Desert Inn.

1998: Retire flight attendant hits $27.5 million jackpot on a slot at Palace Station. She had previously won $680K on a different machine.

2002: Woman wins $22.6 million on a slot machine at Bally's.

1999: Illinois man won $21.3 million on a slot machine at Caesars.

2005: A man hit the Megabucks jackpot TWICE at Cannery Casino. The first for $4.6 million and the second for $21.1 million. We'd be interested to know his system.

2011: Women cashes in on $12.7 million at Aria slot machine.

2011: Another big winner at Aria. This time a $10.6 million winner.

2012: Marine nailed a slot machine winner at the Bellagio good for a $2.9 million pay day.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Lange cashes in on his 20* Big Sky Total of the Year for an undisclosed amount.

Tags: Las Vegas

Free MLB Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

05.22.2012     07:51 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
LA Dodgers (Harang) at Arizona (Cahill) -140 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Everyone is pretty much aware that LA's Aaron Harang is a fly ball pitcher. And that isn't a bad thing to be when pitching at Dodgers Stadium, AT&T Park and Petco. But in hitter-friendly environments, Harang has and will continue to struggle. His career numbers at Chase Field look strong: 4 starts, 1.38 ERA, 1 HR allowed. But all four outings had the roof closed. Tonight it is expected to be open and that puts Harang in a difficult spot. When on, Trevor Cahill is a really strong groundball pitcher but he's been very inconsistent this season and hasn't missed a lot of bats with 31 strikeouts (and 21 walks) in 49.1 innings. Keep in mind two of his three starts at Chase Field were with the rooof closed. The one that wasn't he gave up four earned runs and a season-high 10 fly balls. Don't tell the Dodgers Matt Kemp's injury is supposed to bog the offense down. LA has scored 8, 6, 6, 6, and 6 runs its last five Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Arizona Diamondbacks Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Colorado Rockies have bottomed out

05.22.2012     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
In the month of May alone, the Colorado Rockies are 4-15. It only adds to what has taken place with this organization since 2010's late season collapse that saw them lose 13 of 14 to close out the regular season. Since that time, Colorado has quietly been one of the worst teams in baseball with a record of 89-129, -59 units. Pitching has played a big role in the organization's decline. In early 2011, we posted a blog about how the Rockies had it right by trying to develop young arms with good fastballs that produce groundballs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa. Juan Nicasio, Jason Hammel, and Jhoulys Chacin all showed promise. But only Nicasio is currently contributing to the team. They traded Jimenez to Cleveland – a move that for now looks smart. The Hammel for Guthrie trade hasn't worked out with Hammel throwing well for Baltimore and Guthrie (5.55 ERA) spending much of his time being injured or ineffective. Then you have De La Rosa and Chacin on the shelf due to injuries. Rookie Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Notes: Holy cow! The Houston Astros are playing decent baseball

05.18.2012     02:00 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
I've stated a few times on the Sportsmemo Podcast that the Houston Astros (17-21) have from a statistical standpoint underachieved this season. Hard to believe consider few if any would have predicted that in mid-May they'd be only four games under .500 and in fourth place in the National League Central. The Astros rank fifth in the NL in run differential (+0.3). That equates to a Pythagorean W-L record of 20-18. And it isn't like they caught a three-week wave of easy scheduling. Twenty-seven of their 38 games have come against teams above .500. And nearly 50% of their games (18) were against the National East – a division in which everyone currently has a winning record and all but the Mets have a positive run differential. On the flip side, the Astros have played just six games vs. the NL West – a division with only one winning record (Los Angeles) and four of five teams with negative run differentials. What does this all mean? I'm not sure, especially with such a small sample size. And despite overachieving (which for Houston is mediocrity) they are barely profitable on the season (+1.25 units) so I’d refrain from a “bet on blindly” philosophy. It Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Andrew Lange

Free MLB Betting Pick: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

05.17.2012     12:04 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
NY Yankees (Hughes) -115 at Toronto (Hutchison) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: New York

Phil Hughes' shortcoming have been so heavily publicized that despite playing for the Yankees, there would inevitably some betting value on him if and when things turned around. My enthusiasm for him remains tepid but there have been positives. On the season, Hughes has decent numbers (40 hits allowed in 36 innings with 34 strikeouts and only nine walks). The problem has been staying away from the home run ball (9). The velocity has been there and so long as he believes in his stuff (he should after back-to-back quality starts) Hughes has some upside. For the Blue Jays, rookie Drew Hutchison hasn’t shown much (5.53 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). He has struggled with his command, fallen behind in a lot of counts and been forced to throw fastballs 77% of the time. The Yankees are aging, but they still work counts, take walks, and tend to feast of mediocre pitching. Looks like a decent spot for a play on the small Read more

Tags: MLB New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Notes: Numbers suggest Cleveland has been fortunate

05.16.2012     07:23 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
On May 23 of last year, the Cleveland Indians had a seven game lead (30-15) in the American League Central but finished 15 games out. Most bettors knew some sort of decline was inevitable but perhaps not that dramatic. This year's start (20-16) is a little more realistic but a closer look shows that the Tribe may be once again overachieving.

The first thing that stands out is a -0.3 run differential. That equates to a pythWL of 17-19. Next is the schedule Cleveland has played. Of their 36 games, 27 came against team below .500 while only nine were against teams above .500. Those marks far and away "lead" the American League. Not surprising, the Indians have played the fewest games (7) of any AL team against the East Division. Note that they are 2-5 in those contests. Also of note is the fact that Cleveland is an amazing 8-1 in one-run games. Good teams often finish above .500 in one-run games but an 89% is a rate simply cannot be maintained.

Lastly, let's look at Cleveland's schedule the remainder of the season. The American League Central is pretty watered down at this point though Detroit and Kansas City have yet to play their best baseball. The Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange


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