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NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 15

12.12.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. That's a stat I've been keeping myself by hand from itemized scoring drives in boxscores ever since the USA Today started publishing them many years ago. In the first parenthesis are strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order, and, largely converging now). In the second parenthesis is turnover differential. Games are presented in market rotation order. I tried to line up the numbers as best as possible by abbreviating some of the team cities…


San Diego: 14.6 on offense, 16.1 on defense (19-31) (-3 turnovers)

Denver : 23.3 on offense, 15.0 on defense (20-29) (-2 turnovers)

Football Outsiders has mentioned somewhere that San Diego supposedly has one of the five worst defenses in the history of their stat methodology. I mean…it’s pretty Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: Kansas State looks to snap bowl win drought

12.12.2013     11:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Michigan vs. Kansas State -3.5 O/U 56

For all the pointspread success Kansas State has had during Bill Synder's second stint in Manhattan (a very quiet 7-5 ATS this year), the Wildcats haven't had much of it in the postseason. Since Snyder's return in 2009, KSU is 0-3 SU/ATS. And as a program, they haven't won a bowl game since 2002.

2012: 35-17 SU/ATS (+8) Loss vs. Oregon
2011: 29-16 SU/ATS (+9) Loss vs. Arkansas
2010: 36-34 SU/ATS (+1) Loss vs. Syracuse
2006: 37-10 SU/ATS (+8.5) Loss vs. Rutgers
2003: 35-28 SU/ATS (-7) vs. Loss vs. Ohio State

“Nobody on our whole team has won a bowl game, with the exception of coaches,” junior linebacker Jonathan Truman said. “We need it and we want it really bad.

“We’ve tried our best in preparation in the past, the

Read more

Tags: College Football Kansas State Wildcats Big XII Michigan Wolverines Big Ten

College Football Handicapping: Wisconsin looking for better defense vs. South Carolina

12.12.2013     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wisconsin -1 vs. South Carolina O/U 51

Wisconsin is eager to atone for it defensive mishaps in the regular season finale loss to Penn State. The Badgers allowed 465 totals yards after not having surrendered more than 391 in a Big Ten contest. Head coach Gary Andersen pointed out that it was the big plays that cost UW the game. South Carolina has at times shown big play ability this season with 20 plays of 50 yards or more. Against its three toughest offensive opponents, Arizona State, Ohio State, and BYU, Wisky allowed 26 ppg and 409.3 ypg (5.07 ypp).

"A lot of us got kind of a sick feeling in our stomach

Read more

Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten South Carolina SEC

College Football Handicapping: Early thoughts on Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, BCS and more

12.11.2013     07:38 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Rose Bowl / Rose Bowl / Pasadena, CA
255 Michigan State
256 Stanford -2 (Power Rating)

Game Opened: Stanford -3 Total Not posted
Current Line: Stanford -4 or -4.5 Total Not yet posted

Early Thoughts
1. Obviously a battle of mirror images as similar style offenses and arguably the nation’s toughest defenses meet. Both teams are extremely happy to be in this game which should equate to 60 minutes of full effort from each side.   
2. Can’t help but feel the edge in this game goes to Stanford because they’ve produced equally stellar defensive results against far superior offensive competition. Indiana, Nebraska and Ohio State are the best offenses MSU faced this season and they allowed 28, 28, and 24 points to those teams for an average of 26.7 per game. The Spartans overall defensive numbers are somewhat skewed by the seven lousy offenses they played.             

3. The passing game and offensive line will be vital to each team’s success and probably determine the Read more

Tags: College Football Rob Veno

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers

12.10.2013     10:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Phoenix +3 at LA Lakers O/U 206
Recommendation: Phoenix

It’s going to be a process before Kobe Bryant gets comfortable in this Lakers lineup.  His quote following the Lakers 12 point home loss to lowly Toronto in his season debut: “My rhythm is completely out of sync.”

Head coach Mike D’Antoni agreed wholeheartedly: “He'll work through his issues, and again, they're baby steps. He's coming back from a tough injury, and he's coming off eight months ... he is human, I think. We have to understand it's going to take the other players around him. It's going to be a little painful at first.”

Kobe Bryant is worth at least two or three points to this spread, but the Lakers are probably at least two or three points WORSE with him back on the floor – for now – as they adjust to new rotations and get their superstar acclimated to game speed.  Let’s not forget the excellent team chemistry this team had without Kobe on the floor for the first five weeks of the season – LA overachieved both SU and ATS.  That makes the Lake-show an easy ‘bet Read more

Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Los Angeles Lakers Teddy Covers

College Football Gambling: Initial thoughts on bowl game opening numbers

12.09.2013     02:07 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Please note that these reactions are to the opening lines only and are in no way indicative of which way I would lean toward any of the games commented on. Bowl games are as much about situation (and sometimes even more so) as they are the lines.

1. Oddsmakers showed a lot of support for the top of the MAC as Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Ball State and Buffalo all opened between 2-4 points higher than my power ratings projected.

2. There are hardly any home field type situations on this season’s bowl card but Maryland and North Carolina are close to home. The Terps are much closer to their back yard and I assigned them a +2 point home edge but the opener suggests that even a higher number may have been given. The same was not used in UNC’s case as the opener of -3 indicates they were given little to no home consideration. I used +1 for the Tar Heels.

3. Somewhat surprised that Syracuse opened only +4.5 considering how well Minnesota played down the stretch.

4. Kansas State opening -3 over Michigan seems a bit high, wouldn’t be surprised to see numbers and value guys bet it down some.

5. Missouri opening Read more

Tags: College Football Rob Veno

College Basketball Betting: Early season ATS suprises

12.09.2013     01:20 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
We're a month into the college basketball season so let's take a look at a handful of teams that have exceeded and underachieved from a pointspread perspective and whether or not the trend will continue moving forward.

UMass (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) - Last year around this time, UMass was a pointspread disaster (3-10 ATS start); unable to close the deal when asked to lay points. This year's group is different and has shown the ability to get timely stops while also staying away from sloppy play during crunch time. The resume is legit with wins over LSU, New Mexico, Clemson, and BYU. There are two more tests upcoming against Florida State and Providence before A-10 play starts. They'll be priced as a top-tier team after finishing last season in the middle of the pack (9-7). Be ready for moderate-sized prices at home and short lined games on the highway.

Georgia State (3-6 SU, 1-6 ATS) - GSU had the ideal profile of a "bet on" team heading into the season: under-the-radar program, proven head coach in his third year, nice mix of talent and returning experience. But it looks like that Panthers may have gotten a bit too much Read more

Tags: College Basketball UMass Minutemen Boston College Eagles Georgia State Panthers Penn State Nittany Lions Wright State Raiders Andrew Lange

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: How to bet college football bowl games

12.09.2013     08:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
During football season, I usually write about the NFL every week.  But it wasn’t easy to make broad generalizations about teams on a Sunday in which more than half the games were significantly affected by snowy or frigid weather.  And the college football bowl pairings were announced on Sunday Night.  So, I made the executive decision to take a one week break from the NFL this week to discuss my personal strategies for winning during bowl season.

Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game.  Overall talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot about being there.  That’s why underdogs tend to do fairly well against the spread in the earlier bowl games.  It’s not a reward for a favorite to end up in front of a sparse crowd in Boise or Detroit facing a team they’re not particularly excited about playing, especially if their second tier bowl bid came as a result of a relatively disappointing campaign.

Always check the local newspapers, blogs and yes, even twitter feeds for clues about any team’s level of preparation and Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

College Football Championship First and Second Half Betting Numbers

12.07.2013     08:51 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
In last night’s Mid-American Championship Game, Bowling Green continued its torrid 2013 run cashing as a second half “under” play for the 11th time in 13 games.  Always looking for hidden gems, here’s a look at the season’s results for each team involved in Saturday’s Conference Championship Games.

Conference USA - Marshall at Rice
1st Half ATS – Marshall 8-4-0 / Rice 9-3-0
1st Half Total – Marshall 5-6-0 / Rice 4-6-2 (Note: The Marshall-Gardner Webb game did not have a 1H total but had a 2H) 

Notes: Marshall is currently on a 5-0 1H ats streak defeating opponents by 14 or more in all five games. Rice is also a red-hot 1H play going 7-1 ats in their last eight games winning all seven of those contests by double digits.

2nd Half ATS – Marshall 6-6-0 / Rice 5-7-0
2nd Half Total – Marshall 7-5-0 / Rice 2-10-0

Notes: Of Marshall’s six road games this season, five of them resulted in 34 or more 2H points and a 5-1 “over” mark. Rice started the season playing nine consecutive 2H “unders” before going Read more

Tags: College Football Rob Veno

College Basketball Gambling: Arizona State's Carson probable but far from healthy

12.06.2013     08:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Arizona State -3.5 at DePaul

According to Sports Options, Arizona State's Jahii Carson (ankle) is probable for tonight's game at DePaul. However, it doesn't sound as if he'll be even close to 100 percent. Carson was hobbled (8 points, 2-of-14 FGs) in ASU's 60-57 loss to Miami last Sunday and has been severely limited in practice. After DePaul, the Sun Devils don't play again until next Saturday – a situation that leaves the door open for Carson potentially sitting out this evening.

“I definitely live off my speed and my explosiveness,” Carson said. “I’m a two-foot jumper, so not having the explosion off both feet definitely limited me offensively and defensively. Shots that I’d normally make I couldn’t quite hit, plays defensively on the ball that I’d normally make I couldn’t quite get.”

Tags: College Basketball Arizona State Sun Devils DePaul Blue Demons


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