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NBA Handicapping: Against the Spread impact players
02.20.2012 07:49 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the pointspread impact of the numerous key injuries around the NBA. This week, I’m going to shift my focus to specific players, in an effort to identify and isolate the influence of individuals on their respective teams’ ATS results.
Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia
Hawes was considered a first round bust in Sacramento, failing to develop into an impact player after the Kings took him with the 10th overall pick back in 2007. Last year, in a backup role with the Sixers, Hawes was certainly not an impact player on either end of the court. But as a starter this year, the Sixers rode his solid defense and rebounding a lot early in the season: 13-1 ATS with him in the lineup. But Hawes has been battling a lingering Achilles injury, and the Sixers just aren’t the same team without him: 6-12 ATS in the 18 games that he’s missed. At 13-1 against the spread with him and 6-12 without him, Hawes is exactly the type of under-the-radar pointspread influencer that I’m looking to spotlight!
Marcus Thornton, Sacramento
The Kings are an NBA afterthought –rarely on TV, never in the
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Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Handicapping: Last Home Game situations
02.20.2012 07:01 AM
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Submitted by
As we near the conclusion of another winning and profitable college basketball season, I often isolate some solid Last Home Game situations that have proven profitable for many seasons. These are not just plays on home teams, but also against lesser or “towel tosser” teams playing on weaker home courts.
Many of these LHG’s bring a level of emotion and effort from both the players and fans as the seniors make their final appearance for the home faithful. Three seasons ago, Indiana lost its last nine regular season games and had just one senior, five freshman and six walk-ons. One of those freshmen was Verdell Jones lll who will play his final game at Assembly Hall as a senior on March 4. Indiana was a 14-point home underdog to top-10 Michigan State, but battled hard to the end to cash the ticket in a five-point loss.
Those kind of efforts and situations are prevalent throughout the final weeks of the season, and it gives you an idea of the emotion and meaning of these late season contests in front of their home fans. While some teams are pushing for conference titles, others are just trying to finish above .500 or prepare
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NBA Handicapping: Anthony and Davis could suit up for Knicks vs. New Jersey
02.20.2012 06:30 AM
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New Jersey
at
New York
How long until this little experiment implodes? The New York Knicks could see the return of Carmelo Anthony as well as the season debut of Baron Davis tonight against New Jersey. Yesterday, JR Smith made his Knicks debut and in typical Smith fashion went 6-of-16 from the floor. Don't forget that Jeremy Lin is still working on developing rapport with big men Amar'e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler. And what happens to Landry Fields, Iman Shumpert and Steve Novak moving forward? A lot of mouths to feed and potentially not enough spoons.
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New York Knicks
New Jersey Nets
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NCAA Basketball Gambling: Illinois' Bruce Weber on the way out
02.17.2012 07:19 AM
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We had Illinois Wednesday night in its 67-62 home loss to Purdue. The Illini fit a number of late season profitable profiles I use, and they we playing a Purdue team with redemption after losing to the Boilermakers 75-60 on December 31. Yet the information below with the surrounding situations is an example of the problems that can persist within a team environment, and how a lack of cohesion, chemistry and unsettled coaching can lead to less than desired results.
Now on a 0-4 SU/ATS losing skid and losers of seven of their last eight games, it’s clear that the Illini (16-10, 5-8 Big Ten) are a “towel tosser” team with a coach that looks like he’s on his way out. Bruce Weber has passed on other job offers in recent years including the Oklahoma opening last March; reportedly $17 Million. In his 9th season at Illinois and six years removed from a Big Ten title and National Championship game appearance, the Bruce Weber era at Illinois appears to be over. Despite a genuine respect by his peers and support of his staff, Weber is now in a losing situation. The fans started to turn on him in the past few years and the pressure has mounted with less
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Illinois Fighting Illini
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NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Wisconsin travels to Michigan State
02.16.2012 06:05 AM
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Wisconsin
at
Michigan State
-6 O/U 114.5
Looking to keep pace with first place Ohio State, Wisconsin travels to East Lansing to face Michigan State. The Spartans won in overtime in Madison, 63-60, back on January 3. Wisconsin though appears to be a different team,
having won seven of eight
since starting the Big Ten season 1-3. Meanwhile the Spartans are 9-3 with two of their three league losses by a single point. At home vs. the Big Ten, MSU is 6-0 with wins by 15, 34, 25, 16, 10 and 20. And according to Tom Izzo, this year's group may be the
best defense
he's ever coached.
"They're playing a lot better and a huge part of that is Taylor playing a lot better," Spartans forward Draymond Green said. "He's a lot more like what everyone expected him to be.
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College Basketball Handicapping: Strong late season situationals
02.15.2012 06:49 AM
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This is the time of the college basketball season when many of our long term positive profiles and strong situations develop. Second meets, qualified revenge situations, last home games and additional profiles and parameters produce profit year after year. Tonight we have another top-rated Big Drive play that fits one of our proven profiles and situations with additional subsets and parameters that guide us to our selection. When we combine some of these late season situations with positive statistical parameters in our match-up evaluation, we have a play worth full support.
As you look over a college card and dig deeper into the surrounding situations and match-up, here’s something to guide you for future winners. Keep in mind some of the information I discuss is proprietary, so I don’t give out all the details in regards to exact ATS results or perhaps a specific subset or situation in addition to our base premise and profile. After all, I do get paid for providing positive pointspread prognosis and winning information.
But here we go. At this time of the season, teams are playing second meets or opponents for the second time. Winning teams
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NCAA Basketball Gambling: 16 teams remain undefeated at home
02.14.2012 07:47 AM
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Two weeks ago I provided
blog and chart
showing college basketball’s undefeated home teams. At the time (Feb. 1), there were 28 teams that were undefeated on their home courts (including non-board teams). I’ve updated the information below and you can see there are now 16 undefeated home teams. Every season I discuss and post information on the importance of home courts in college basketball and mention how teams perform with a home/road dichotomy. Understanding home court advantage and the situations surrounding the current contests is important in helping you isolate winners.
However, while home court strength plays an important role to many teams, it’s also essential to recognize line adjustments along with weaker teams and home courts. The ability to understand scheduling and motivational situations including second meets and meaningful revenge is also part of the pointspread prognosis and handicap at this time of year. I have many historically strong situations that provide plenty of profit at this time of
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College Basketball Handicapper Free Pick: Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears
02.13.2012 02:26 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Iowa State
+8.5 at
Baylor
O/U 140.5
Recommendation: Iowa State
The Cyclones have been an undervalued commodity since the start of Big XII play. Expectations were low in Ames once again this year – just like they are most years. And Iowa State did not overachieve against the spread in non-conference play, with a mediocre 4-5 ATS mark through its first nine lined games.
But things have changed since league play began in early January. Fred Hoiberg’s squad has reeled off an impressive 9-2-1 ATS run that includes outright road wins at Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma; as well as tight, competitive spread covering defeats against quality foes like Kansas and Texas. With four key transfers in the rotation – including three starters that came over from Big Ten schools – Hoiberg has crafted a roster that is just getting better and better as the season progresses.
Baylor is headed in the opposite
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College Basketball Betting: Boston College is nation's top underdog
02.13.2012 07:03 AM
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The Big Drive blitz continues as our top-rated selections continue to produce big profit following a pair of 20* winners with our Big Ten Game of the Month on Michigan State (+9) outright over Ohio State (58-48) and ACC Game of the Year winner on Boston College (+12.5) in their 66-65 last second loss at Virginia Tech; a game the Eagles led nearly the entire way. The Spartans snapped the Buckeyes’ 39-game home winning streak; second-longest in the nation.
Boston College entered Sunday’s ACC contest just 8-16 SU and 3-7 in conference play. They are on pace to set the school record for most losses in a season (21). The Eagles have a very young and inexperienced team with four freshman regulars. They are going through some growing pains, but despite the league’s worst scoring offense (57 ppg), the Eagles have been a solid profit-producer this season going 12-7 ATS. Yet few bettors have probably noticed or been willing to support Boston College since they are a “bad” team and can’t score much at all. Further proof that even at this stage of the season, losing teams and others can run under the radar and be real money-makers.
Along
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NBA Handicapping: The impact injuries have on the pointspread
02.13.2012 06:55 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
NBA injuries are enough to drive even the savviest of NBA bettors bonkers. In this lockout shortened, condensed season, the nightly list of injuries could fill out an all-star team. I’d take my chances with a roster composed of Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Kyrie Irving, Amare Stoudamire, Danilo Gallinari, Anderson Varejao, DJ Augustin, Zack Randolph, Andrew Bogut and Al Horford – all of whom were out of action this past weekend – against the Eastern or Western Conference All-Stars.
The NBA betting markets are overwhelmed with injury information on a nightly basis. Some of that information is important, but most of it isn’t, just random static that confuses many bettors while causing the markets to make ridiculous knee-jerk reactions. The Knicks are my prime example for this article, because no team makes the case that injury info should NOT be affecting pointspreads as much as they actually do better than Mike D’Antoni’s squad.
New York’s Carmelo Anthony has been battling a series of nagging injuries all year: first his ankle, then his wrist, and now his
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