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MLB Betting Recap: Los Angeles Dodgers continue to roll

07.24.2013     12:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It looked like this was going to be the night the Los Angeles Dodgers finally cooled off. They were trailing 8-3 after six inning in Toronto. Nobody would blame them for calling it a night before trying to come back and win the series Wednesday.

Instead, they rallied for a thrilling 10-9 win that was important for several reasons:

*It brought them to 22-5 their last 27 games

*It brought them to 5-0 since the All-Star Break

*Which means nothing but wins a full time through the rotation

*Oh, that’s 5-0 on the ROAD

*It kept them in first place in the NL West

Now…there are still come caveats about this long winning run. The Dodgers have managed to avoid all the good teams in baseball! They were beating up on their NL West brethren…and we’ve talked a few times about how that whole division has basically collapsed in recent weeks outside of the Dodgers. Their recent Interleague draws have been against the Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Tips on how to bet post-All-Star break MLB

07.22.2013     10:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I wrote a similar article to this one last year at this time.  At the risk of plagiarizing myself, I thought many of the points I made last year are still extremely pertinent when it comes to post All-Star break baseball in 2013. 

NFL training camps open up around the country this week.  The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind.  Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now.  We’ve got a maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore.  Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up.  Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks.  College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences.

So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football?  After all, we’re less than a week out from the All Star break, with more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play.  There isn’t a team in either league that has completed more than 100 games of their 162-game schedule as I write this.

Yet any sportsbook director in town will tell Read more



Tags: MLB NFL College Football Teddy Covers




The end of summer approaches

07.19.2013     07:28 AM     Printer Friendly
How did you spend your four day break? I'm sure plenty were devouring as much football information as possible while taking a little mental breather from the every day grind of baseball. Teddy Covers found time for a little interview in the Las Vegas Sun.



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers NFL




Teddy Covers Las Vegas Wise Guys Report: NFL Season O/U Wins

07.15.2013     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve written a couple of columns about the first NFL win totals posted here in Las Vegas. Now that the betting markets are starting to mature, it’s time to take another look at the Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams for the coming year. This week’s focus is on strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign.

I closed out my last column on NFL win totals by looking back at last year’s final strength of schedule, based on my power rating numbers for each opponent on the week that the game was played. Here was my final assessment:

“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for 2013.”

That Read more



Tags: NFL Season Wins Teddy Covers




WSOP winner will pocket $8.3 million

07.09.2013     01:38 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Over 6,500 poker players are competing for this year's World Series of Poker Main Event. First place takes home a cool $8.3 million.


“Back then, I knew three poker players,” Moneymaker said at the ceremony. “Over the last 10 years, I’ve met thousands and thousands of wonderful people in this game. It’s really evolved into something magical, and what you see here today.”







Tags: Poker




LVH Sportsbook gears up for footbal season

07.09.2013     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Head's up for football bettors in the Las Vegas area. According to LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay, College Football Season O/U Wins, Games of the Year, and Conference Title odds while be available July 21 at 10:30 am PT. Also note that registration for LVH's SuperContest is underway. The entry fee is $1,500. Also note a few changes for this year...


The 2013 LVH SuperContest will see a couple of changes. We have expanded the cash prize pool to the top 30 and the new breakdown will be listed on the SuperContest Rules page. In addition, the LVH SuperBook has increased the two bonuses. Anyone selecting over 67% or wins the mini-contest (best record over the last 3 weeks of the season) will now win an aggregate cash prize of $15,000. To be eligible for this year’s mini-contest, contestants must sign up before September 2nd.






Tags: College Football NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins

07.08.2013     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.  We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.  The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.   The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month. 

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.  Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.  You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Notes on Power Ratings for the 2013 Season

07.05.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As we get closer to the NFL season, you’re going to see a lot of prediction articles in the mainstream and stathead media. The fact that Las Vegas now actively markets and publicizes their Regular Season Win Total propositions has certainly helped. Sportwriters and fans loved making predictions anyway. Now there’s an outline of expectations that people can refer too.

The stathead articles in this area all basically say the same thing over and over again. This has been true for years. I used to ghostwrite them myself…until it got boring just repeating the same things over and over again. The general themes are:
 
*Assume that turnover extremes will regress toward the mean

*Assume that records in close games will regress toward the mean

*Be skeptical of teams with bad point differentials who had decent records

*Be sure you know who played easy schedules and who played hard schedules

*Remember who had key injuries, and pencil in good Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Sportsbook claims bettor won $16K on Bailey's no-hitter

07.03.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
Like any business, sportsbooks need to market themselves and a popular way to do it is to publicize big winning tickets. Last night, William Hill tweeted that someone bet $400 on the "Yes" for Will There Be a No-Hitter prop bet. The odds were 40-1. And we're sure you've heard by now that Cincinnati's Homer Bailey delivered the goods. According to WH, the bettor took home $16K. There is no sense is thinking this didn't occur, however, it wouldn't be the first nor the last time a sportbook's marketing department took advantage of a rare occurrence (see: here, here, here, and here).

copy_no_hitter.JPG




Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds



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