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College Football Betting: Illinois' defense not the same without DC Koenning

08.12.2013     12:36 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Illinois' defense is hoping for better results in the second year under defensive coordinator Tim Banks. As mentioned in this article, when Tim Beckman took over, he decided not to keep defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. The transition from Koenning to Banks wasn't a smooth one as the Illini went from allowing 286.2 ypg (2nd Big Ten) to 387.6 ypg (10th Big Ten) last season.


“We just couldn’t put the pieces together,” he said. “Transition is hard. I had a special relationship with him and change is really difficult. But you just have to buy into a new system, which we’ve done.

“Improvement is expected in the second year.”





Tags: College Football Illinois Fighting Illini Big Ten




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Friday Night's Results and Stats

08.10.2013     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Just like last night, let’s crunch some numbers in market rotation order. If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15.

Miami 27, Jacksonville 3

Total Yardage: Miami 267, Jacksonville 289

Passing Stats: Miami 15-26-1-161, Jacksonville 23-42-2-163

Turnovers: Miami 1, Jacksonville 4

Drive Points: Miami 7, Jacksonville 3

Stat Score: Miami 17, Jacksonville 19

Very important to pay attention to the numbers here. If you were scoreboard watching all night, you probably assumed Miami was playing much sharper because of their one-week head start. They seemed to be in command the whole way, and won a blowout. But, the offense Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Betting Free Pick: Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans

08.08.2013     11:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington at Tennessee -3 O/U 35.5
Recommendation: Tennessee


The Redskins are expected to start three rookies in the secondary tonight.  The Titans are expected to give Jake Locker an extended look for a preseason opener; in the range of 20 snaps.  Locker has a lot to prove this August…Advantage: Tennessee.

The betting markets like Washington’s backup QB duo of Rex Grossman and Pat White after Kirk Cousins sits.  No argument there.  But the Titans backup QB rotation looks good as well, with former Bills starter Ryan Fitzpatrick and four year veteran Rusty Smith backing up Locker. 

Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is taking a very relaxed attitude towards game planning here in August.  They’ll be focusing on “general concepts” tonight.  Washington was -3 in their preseason opener last year and scored a grand total of seven points in their non-cover against the Bills.

We’ve got Read more


Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Tennessee Titans Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: American League Road Only Team Stats

08.08.2013     05:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s been awhile since we looked at road-only stats in the majors. Went through the splits pages at baseball-reference and grabbed some offensive and pitching numbers for all 30 teams.

Don’t want to suggest that “road only” numbers are the perfect way to evaluate teams. Every method has some pollution in it. Generally speaking, these do paint a pretty accurate portrait of the true big picture strengths and weaknesses of each team. They take home ballparks out of the mix…and therefore the illusions that are typically created when teams have to play half their games in a home park that either favors hitting or pitching.

Best Road Offenses (ordered by on-base plus slugging total)

Baltimore 767: .320 on-base, .447 slugging

Boston 757: .342 on-base, .415 slugging

Detroit 745: .327 on base, .418 slugging

Cleveland 738: .330 on base, .408 slugging

Tampa Bay 738: .323 on-base, .415 Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Illinois hopes new OC can spark offensive turnaround

08.07.2013     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A common theme here in the blog this summer has been college football teams with crappy offenses that bring in new offensive coordinators. In the case of Illinois, calling last year's offense "crappy" is generous. We're talking about a team that averaged 11.8 ppg in conference play. When something like that occurs the next logical move is to bring in an up-and-coming OC who can quickly turn things around. But the Illini went a different route and hired former Western Michigan head coach Bill Cubit who this fall will turn 60 years old. Cubit's WMU teams were typically slightly above average by MAC standards but never prolific when it came to putting points on the board. According to Cubit, the main goal this season is to play faster (Illinois ranked 87th in plays per game last year, Western Michigan ranked 34th). Dating back to the Ron Zook era, U of I’s problem has not been talent but rather developing it. Nowhere is that more apparent than quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase who saw his QB ratings drop from 133.38 to Read more


Tags: College Football Illinois Fighting Illini Big Ten




MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

08.06.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta (Teheran ) +105 at Washington (Gonzalez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Atlanta


The Braves are the hottest team in baseball right now, winners of eleven straight.  They’ve taken complete control of the NL East, currently sporting a 13.5 game lead against second place Washington after last night’s victory. 

This Freddie Freeman quote tells us that the Braves are still fully focused on the task at hand: “You want to step on their necks, especially when we've got this big of a lead. I think we set the tone.”

Washington is just 3-8 against the Braves this year; outscored 21-7 while losing all four previous home matchups against Atlanta.  And it’s clear that the sub-.500 Nationals are pressing right now, as evidenced by this Tyler Clippard quote: “We've got to turn this thing around. Two months left, and we're (13 1/2) games back. We've got to get moving.”  It’s surely worth noting that Clippard allowed Read more


Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Preseason Power Ratings

08.06.2013     06:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As most of you in the markets know, CRIS posted Week One lines for college football this past weekend. Those lines have had time to move…as sharp action has hit the offshore board. That’s helped solidify how “the market” sees the 2013 college football season in the days leading up to everyone’s openers.

I’ve used those “improved” lines (oddsmakers openers plus sharp influence) to update our first crack at estimated Power Ratings. First, I’ll run through the top 10 or so, which will give you a chance to compare them to preseason polls. Then, I’ll go through each board conference. Again, these aren’t how I would personally rate the teams. This is my guess at how “the market” as a composite has the teams rated on a standard Power Ratings scale. You regulars know that I typically stick “championship caliber” at 85 and work down from that. This year’s Alabama squad is seen as a bit better than Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason

08.05.2013     07:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a How to Beat the NFL Preseason article just about every year.  But this is no cut-and-paste from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically. 

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year.  Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.  

Part of the change is the pointspread itself.  What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5.  As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.

At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade.  Coach’s gameplans change over time, as Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Indiana sees up-tempo as key vs. Big Ten

08.02.2013     01:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Not every team in the Big Ten likes to play at a pedestrian pace and grind out games. Indiana and Penn State ranked in the top 25 nationally in terms of plays per game last season. In Kevin Wilson's second season, the Hoosiers ranked second in the Big Ten in yards per game (442.0). According to Wilson, playing up-tempo is the best way to level the playing field against the rest of the conference.


"We understand that when we substitute, the referee gives the other team a chance to match that substitution," he said. "We also understand that when we don't substitute, we can go fast. I believe in playing fast. I believe in different tempos."

"Fans want to see points," Wilson said. "With HD TV, every league and the professionals, everyone’s worried about fan experience. Great defense, you want it, I don’t think every game’s gotta be a 42-40 shootout, but I don't think anybody wants a 1-0 shutout. I don’t think we're playing 7-3 football." 





Tags: College Football Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Texas Rangers at Oakland A's

08.02.2013     11:31 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Ogando) at Oakland (Milone) -131 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Oakland


The Rangers rotation has been a mess for a good portion of the season, with Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Nicholas Tepesch and tonight’s starter, Alexi Ogando, all spending extended stints on the DL.  In the midst of a pennant race, the Rangers are desperate to guy these guys back in the rotation. 

Ogando has made two starts since his seven week stint on the DL ended.  Neither start was good – high pitch counts, mediocre velocity, and an inability to notch strikeouts – as Texas went 0-2 in those outings. I’m not convinced he’s fully healthy.

The A’s have hit Ogando fairly well even when he was at his best, scoring 14 runs in 25 career innings against him.  And Oakland’s bats are in good form right now, pounding out six runs or more three times while winning four of their last six on this homestand.  With a 34-18 record at Read more


Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Oakland A's Teddy Covers



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