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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Getting a leg up on betting the 2013-14 NFL season

05.28.2013     10:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’m writing this column over Memorial Day Weekend, nearly two and a half months before the NFL preseason kicks off with the Hall of Fame Game on August 4th and a full three and a half months before the start of the regular season.  And yet NFL betting numbers for the upcoming campaign are becoming more and more widely available; once again proving quite clearly that the NFL is King when it comes to sports betting.

The single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas are NFL Season Win totals.  Super Bowl odds, and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering big payday longshot returns, but cashing a very low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams from a macro perspective.  And with win totals, you don’t have to worry about the competition, even when betting Overs.  For example, the Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Sports Betting Podcast 5-28-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers

05.28.2013     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers. Rob and Erin went through every game on the MLB card.

Today's segments
Full Show

Rob Veno - MLB EGOTB Part I

Teddy Covers - MLB EGOTB Part II

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: MLB NBA Rob Veno Teddy Covers




NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs sweep Memphis, advance to Finals

05.28.2013     06:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Most of the night…it felt like Memphis was ready for their summer vacation. San Antonio was in control, once again attacking weak spots when they had the ball, and denying the rim when they didn’t. But, because the Spurs haven’t quite figured out where the Memphis jugular is…a temporary lapse made it a game in the fourth quarter.

We saw something similar back in Game Two. The Spurs blew a big lead, and Memphis caught them at 85-all to force overtime. Here, the Spurs blew a big lead, and Memphis almost caught them at 89-86 with less than a minute to go. San Antonio made its free throws. Memphis never got another good look.

San Antonio 93, Memphis 86

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 57%, Memphis 38%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio 3/13, Memphis 5/14

Free Throws: San Antonio 12/13, Memphis 17/24

1’s and 2’s: San Antonio 84, Memphis 71

Rebounds: San Antonio 34, Memphis Read more


Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: Now THIS is the Championship Version of Miami (Plus MLB Interleague Notes)

05.27.2013     08:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Heat have a gear that nobody else has. They waited until Indy 500 day in Indianapolis to remind everyone of that as they raced…then coasted to a 114-96 victory to regain home court advantage with a 2-1 series lead.

The final stats don’t quite tell the story…because Miami spent most of the last nine minutes running out the clock. Let’s start with the full game boxscore…then we’ll backtrack a bit to show you what Miami was doing while sending their message.

Miami 114, Indiana 96

2-Point Percentage: Miami 57%, Indiana 36%

3-Point Shooting: Miami 6/14, Indiana 8/14

Free Throws: Miami 24/28, Indiana 30/44

1’s and 2’s: Miami 96, Indiana 72

Rebounds: Miami 36, Indiana 45

Turnovers: Miami 5, Indiana 10

Impressive enough. Indiana called a time out with 9:34 to go in the game, down 21 points at 99-78. I made a note to write down (and tweet @jefffogle) Read more


Tags: NBA MLB Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs take commanding 3-0 series lead

05.26.2013     08:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Last night we talked about how Game Two of Indiana/Miami looked so much like Game One. Tonight, we get to do the same thing in the Western Conference finals…as Game Three in Memphis looked very much like Game Two in San Antonio.

*Home Team jumps out to big lead

*Visitor rallies

*Game goes to overtime at 85-all in G2, and 86-all in G3

*Spurs know what to do in overtime

What jumped out to me watching tonight was how Memphis WASN’T Indiana. You just didn’t see the same fire in their eyes…the same sense of urgency, even though the Grizzlies were already playing with their backs to the wall tonight while Indiana was just trying to break serve. Also, Indiana made its free throws last night, while Memphis gagged way too many with their season on the line this evening.

San Antonio 104, Memphis 93 (in overtime)

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 55%, Memphis 40%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio Read more


Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies




NBA Playoff Handicapping: Betting Results Based on Referees

05.26.2013     08:22 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

Ken Mauer and Ed Malloy are the only two officials who have been paired together in every one of their playoff assignments this postseason. They have been very trendy in their 11 games posting four straight OVERS to start, then calling five consecutive UNDERS and now they're on a two-game OVER streak. Also interesting to note is the addition of Mike Callahan to today’s crew. Callahan will not be the lead referee for the first time in his nine postseason assignments. He's been more of a neutral lead ref where totals are concerned going 4-5 O/U.

NBA Playoff Betting Results w/ Referees
Date
Game
H/A
Close
SU
ATS
O/U
TP
Referees
Referees
Referees
5/18
New York
H
-8.5
L
L
O
205
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/18
Indiana
A
195
W
W
O
205
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/14
Golden State
H
-11
L
L
O
200
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/14
San Antonio
A
190
W
W
O
200
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/11
Oklahoma City
H
-2
L
L
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/11
Memphis
A
212.5
W
W
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/6
Chicago
H
187
W
W
U
179
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/6
Miami
A
-1.5
L
L
U
179
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
T. Washington
5/3
New York
H
180.5
W
W
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Salvatore
5/3
Boston
A
-6.5
L
L
U
168
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Salvatore
5/1
Houston
H
-1
W
W
U
207
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Spooner
5/1
Oklahoma City
A
206.5
L
L
U
207
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
B. Spooner
4/28
Denver
H
211
L
L
O
216
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/28
Golden State
A
-7.5
W
W
O
216
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/26
San Antonio
H
180.5
W
W
O
209
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/26
L.A. Lakers
A
-5.5
L
L
O
209
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
L. Wood
4/24
Atlanta
H
182.5
L
L
O
211
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/24
Indiana
A
-9.5
W
W
O
211
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/20
Chicago
H
188
L
L
O
195
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
4/20
Brooklyn
A
-7
W
W
O
195
K. Mauer
E. Malloy
S. Wright
5/15
Chicago
A
208
L
W
U
185
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
B. Salvatore
5/15
Miami
H
-8.5
W
L
U
185
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
B. Salvatore
5/11
New York
A
183.5
L
L
U
153
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/11
Indiana
H
-1.5
W
W
U
153
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/6
Golden State
A
212
L
W
O
256
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/6
San Antonio
H
-3
W
L
O
256
M. Callahan
T. Brothers
Z. Zarba
5/3
Oklahoma City
A
-2.5
W
W
U
197
M. Callahan
S. Corbin
T. Washington
5/3
Houston
H
181
L
L
U
197
M. Callahan
S. Corbin
T. Washington
4/29
Chicago
A
186.5
L
L
O
201
M. Callahan
T. Washington
Z. Zarba
4/29
Brooklyn
H
-1.5
W
W
O
201
M. Callahan
T. Washington
Z. Zarba
4/27
Indiana
A
-1
L
L
U
159
M. Callahan
S. Wall
T. Washington
4/27
Atlanta
H
207
W
W
U
159
M. Callahan
S. Wall
T. Washington
4/24
L.A. Lakers
A
180
L
L
O
193
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/24
San Antonio
H
-6.5
W
W
O
193
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/22
Memphis
A
183
L
W
O
184
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/22
L.A. Clippers
H
-7
W
L
O
184
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/20
Golden State
A
181.5
L
W
U
192
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington
4/20
Denver
H
-5.5
W
L
U
192
M. Callahan
D. Guthrie
T. Washington




Tags: NBA




NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers even up series (plus MLB notes)

05.25.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If home court advantage is worth anything, then the Indiana Pacers have been the better team in BOTH of the games played so far in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now…home court may end up not meaning much of anything in this series when it’s all said and done. The overall median for the playoffs is still at just two points. And, Miami is known for being very strong on the road. We may be looking at a series of virtual coin flips, with neither team being shaken by the opposing crowd. The near equivalent of a best-of-seven on neutral courts.

Miami better HOPE that’s the case. Because Indiana has been GREAT at home in the playoffs! I’m not going to fall into last year’s trap of making assumptions early in this matchup. We’ve talked about this a lot already. Miami teases you, then breaks your heart if you’re rooting for them to lose.

Let’s run the numbers from Friday night, then review the categories that have been the Read more


Tags: NBA MLB Indiana Pacers Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




NBA Gambling: Bettors lean with road underdogs, Pacers and Spurs

05.24.2013     11:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the consensus bets for tonight and Saturday's NBA Playoff Games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Sides
Indiana +7.5 - 58.7%
San Antonio +5.5 - 53.3%

Moneyline
Indiana +315 - 64.1%
San Antonio +200/Memphis -240 - 50%

Totals
Indiana-Miami OVER 182 - 76.3%
San Antonio-Memphis OVER 177.5 - 61.2%




Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers




Sports Betting Podcast 5-24-2013 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

05.24.2013     10:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy and Erin went through every game on the MLB card. 

Today's segments
Full Show

Teddy Covers - National League

Erin Rynning - American League

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: MLB NBA Teddy Covers Erin Rynning




MLB Handicapping: Are the Washington Nationals Really 80% to Miss the Playoffs?

05.24.2013     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s only May 23, but ESPN’s standings page is showing that the preseason favorite to win the National League is now 80% to MISS the playoffs entirely.

NL East Chance to Make Playoffs (typed up moments before posting)
Atlanta 90%
Washington 19.9%
Philadelphia 11.4%
NY Mets 3.4%
Miami 0.1%

Can that be true?

In favor of the skepticism:

*Washington has a run differential of -26, even though they’re won-lost record is 24-23. I think the sabermetric world pays way too much attention to that particular number. But…the Nats really are WAY off the pace for what a championship contender should be doing.

*Washington is 5-1 against the horrible Miami Marlins, a virtual expansion team in their own division. That means they’re 19-22 against the rest of the league. Washington was +16 in run differential in those wins, which means they’re Read more


Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Stat Intelligence



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