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MLB Gambling News: Which is the Best Division in Baseball?

07.02.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Another topic fitting for our lawyer/judge conversation of late. Today SB Nation posted an article called “The NL Central, Baseball’s Best Division.”

That seemed odd, considering that:

*Cincinnati fans are up in arms about how the Reds were squashed in their recent matchups with Oakland and Texas from the superior American League. The Redlegs went 1-4, getting outclassed on the scoreboard 23-11

*St. Louis fans were licking their own wounds after going 1-5 vs. the same two American League teams. Remember that the Cards were swept at home by the Rangers last weekend, before dropping two of three to the A’s this weekend.

I mean…NOW’s the time you want to make the case that the NL Central is the best in baseball?! The American League has established superiority for several years now. Both the Reds Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: SEC Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.02.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
Below are the SEC's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. Oddsmakers are predicting another close three-team race in the SEC with Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina all lined at 9.5 wins. Most sportsbooks have the Bulldogs priced as slight division favorites. Alabama is once again expected to do great things – bettors are essentially wagering on whether or not the Crimson Tide will lose a regular season game. Improvement is expected from Arkansas and Auburn who suffered through disappointing 2012 campaigns. Oddsmakers like what Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze did in his first season (7-6 overall) as the Rebels are slated to be in the 8-9 win range.

2013 SEC Regular Season Over/Under Wins
SEC East
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
South Carolina
SEC West
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Texas A&M
Louisiana State
Mississippi State

Tags: College Football Georgia Bulldogs Florida Gators South Carolina Gamecocks Alabama Crimson Tide Ole Miss Rebels SEC

NFL Handicapping: Let the Chip Kelly era begin

07.01.2013     12:40 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The over/under on number of blogs dedicated to Philadelphia Eagles first-year head coach Chip Kelly and how fast/slow/good/bad the offense is this season is currently 83.5. Here's one that focuses in on who exactly will be the starting quarterback. The short answer is no one knows at this point. Michael Vick and Nick Foles are expected to see plenty of PT during the preseason.

"Who can move us the best, and who gets the football team up and down the field," Kelly said. "You know that's the most important thing. It doesn't have to be that he throws a prettier ball or all those things. There [are] a lot of different things. How do you manage a game? How do you secure the football? Are we not turning it over? Are we constantly moving in a positive direction? Are we getting into third-and-short and converting them? Things like that. It really is who moves the team the best is what we are looking for at the quarterbacks."

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles

MLB Gambling Free Play: San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds

07.01.2013     10:00 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
San Francisco (Kickham) at Cincinnati (Arroyo) -160 O/U 9
Recommendation: Under

Each of these teams is in an extensive offensive drought right now which should lend a helping hand to starters Michael Kickham and Bronson Arroyo. Over their last 10 games, San Francisco has gone ice cold at the plate hitting just .234 while averaging 2.3 runs per game. Cincinnati’s slump has lasted even longer as they’re now in the midst of a 17 game stretch where they’ve hit just .220 and averaged 2.8 runs per contest. Kickham made one stride in his second MLB outing last Tuesday by striking out five and walking none during his 5.2 inning stint but he was hurt by a pair of two-run homers which accounted for four of the five ER he allowed. Here against a more LH oriented Cincinnati lineup and in his third start overall, figure for a positive progression and somewhere between 5-6 solid innings from him. The Giants bullpen is rested, ready and deep enough to secure the back third Read more

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Cincinnati Reds Rob Veno

MLB Gambling: Pittsburgh Pirates continue rack up the profits

07.01.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
So here we are on July 1, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have the most wins in MLB with 51. They also are the most profitable team in the league with just over +27 units in the bank (Oakland is No. 2 with +11.7). The Bucs have been doing it with pitching as they lead the NL in team ERA (3.13) and groundball percentage (51.1). There are some statistics that indicate the Pirates have been fortunate. Their Pythagorean W-L record is 46-35 which gives them an MLB-leading +5 in the "luck" department. Also note their pitching staff's BABIP is a ridiculous .265 (the Cubs own the second-lowest mark in the NL at .280). However, they don't have crazy records in extra innings (6-4) or 1-run (15-10) games. One of the keys has been simply taking care of business with a record of 33-16 in games against teams below .500 (18-14 vs. teams above .500). For the time being, the Pirates are playing with confidence and doing the little things it takes to win in the National League. Will it last? Probably not at this rate but it doesn't appear that the Pirates are going to suffer another 2nd half meltdown like 2012. Lastly, we dug out this gem from back in 2010 when a group of recreational gamblers Read more

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates

In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more

Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence

MLB Betting Recap: Friday Night News and Notes

06.29.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw together some notes after all. Let’s take the games in rotation order…

*Cole of Pittsburgh got another win. He’s proving to be an interesting pitcher to handicap. He throws 100 mph but doesn’t get strikeouts at a rate you’d expect. At least not so far. Only 3 K’s tonight in 6 innings. He got rocked in the first inning…but then the Pirates scored a zillion runs off the latest Brewers desperation pitcher. The Pirates “four-max” offense (scoring totals in the first five innings with a peak cut-off right at four) the last six games is 4-4-3-4-2-4. They continue a relative explosion from an extended slump several weeks ago.

*Nolasco of Florida has been featured in a lot of trade talk of late. He’s so inconsistent…you can’t be sure that whoever gets him is going to be happy. I’ve arranged his first half runs allowed totals from best to worst. Note how few games are right at a Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

Canadian Football League Betting Free Play: B.C. Lions at Calgary Stampeders

06.28.2013     09:29 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
B.C. +3.5 at Calgary O/U 52
Recommendation: B.C.

There are some extenuating circumstances heading into tonight’s matchup between the BC Lions and Calgary Stampeders. The major one being the recent flooding that has plagued the city of Calgary. On one hand, the Stamps might be bolstered with energy and emotion to play hard and win tonight for the people that have suffered through so much over the last week. Perhaps a solid performance can give them some temporary relief from the devastating flood situation. On the other hand, Calgary’s practice and preparation for this game was altered a bit due to the flood and it leaves a legitimate question; how well prepared and focused can Calgary be with everything that is going on around them?

That is a very real debate I have about this game and it is why my wager is a smaller, free play variety one in this game. However, putting the flood situation aside for one moment, I believe BC is the better of these teams and will be the better team come the end of the season making them worthy of support catching a FG Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron

MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapping: Colorado's Chatwood has been a pleasant surprise

06.27.2013     07:29 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here’s a great example of not giving up on starting pitchers, especially those who are young and were at one time highly regarded. Tyler Chatwood was a second round pick in 2008 but struggled mightily his first two seasons at the MLB level (206.2 IP, 115 Ks, 104 BBs, 4.96 ERA). He started the year at Triple-A but since his call-up he's been Colorado's most reliable starter with a 2.22 ERA through eight starts. As always FanGraphs dives in and gives us some of the reasons behind Chatwood’s success, most notably the development of his slider. It just goes to show how quickly the betting markets can react to starting pitching success – Chatwood is a -165 home favorite tonight against the Mets.

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies New York Mets


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