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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Recapping NBA Playoff Game 1's

04.21.2014     08:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend.  The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners.  There were four games that flew Over the total, three that stayed Under and one (Miami-Charlotte) that finished right in between the opening and closing total.

This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and those Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out.  Here are some key note and quotes for each series following those Game 1’s.

Miami looked sluggish and lethargic for extended stretches of their opener against Charlotte, but took over the game with an 18-4 run in the fourth quarter when LeBron James was sitting on the bench.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra:  “We were flat to start. I think our guys were just anxious."  LeBron: “That group that was in once I took that break at the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter, they just bumped the lead. Obviously, to have three Hall of Famers in the game when I'm out of the game, CB, D-Wade and Ray Read more

Tags: NBA Miami Heat Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

04.20.2014     08:20 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Baltimore (Jimenez) at Boston (Peavy) -155 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Boston

The Orioles will send the enigmatic Ubaldo Jimenez to the bump.  The one time flame-thrower has been up and down for much of the last three seasons. His velocity has dramatically fallen since his days with the Colorado Rockies.  As a rookie in 2007, Jimenez’s fastball averaged 97 mph. This year’s fastball is hovering in the low 90’s. From 2008-10, Jimenez threw 630 innings – half of which in Coors Field where pitchers are stressed even more than normal in order to gain movement in the thin air. Jimenez is also quirky with his mechanics and rarely goes three of four consecutive starts without some sort of issue. The dip in velocity and poor mechanics are directly tied to his current 7.31 ERA. Boston’s lineup led the league in runs scored last season en route to a World Series title.  They’ve been slow out of the box in 2014 (24th runs scored, .345 slugging) but have Read more

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Erin Rynning

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins

04.19.2014     08:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Seattle (Elias) -115 at Miami (Alvarez) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Seattle

This will be the second straight start I've supported Seattle's Roenis Elias, a talented left-hander making his first run through the league. Elias has an above average fastball (92-93 mph) and good command of his off-speed offerings. He's probably been a bit fortunate and may run into trouble at times when teams get a second and third look but he's got legitimate American League middle-of-the-rotation stuff which is more than I can say for his counterpart, Miami's Henderson Alvarez. Despite being an extreme groundballer, Alvarez is very hittable having allowed 25 hits in 14.2 innings this season. His BABIP suggests some of that was bad luck but it is his overall splits point towards continued struggles vs. the Mariners. Because of his sinkerball ways, Alvarez gives right handers a tough time (.253/.292/.385). But against lefties, he really struggles (.291/.354./.470). Seattle has the ability to send as many as seven Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Miami Marlins Andrew Lange

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder

04.16.2014     10:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Detroit at Oklahoma City -14 O/U 211
Recommendation: Over

The Pistons have been the #1 Over team in the NBA all season long; 55-26 (68%) to the Over through their first 81 games.  Against Western Conference foes like the Thunder – teams that tend to play more uptempo than their Eastern Conference counterparts – Detroit has cashed Overs at a 76% clip in their last 30 ballgames.

Recent Pistons defensive efforts can only be described as dismal or non-existent – hence their 8-1 run to the Over in their last nine ballgames.   They’ve allowed 100+ nine times in their last ten games; 110 or more on seven separate occasions during that span.  Toronto – not exactly an uptempo squad – just hung 116 on Detroit in their last game. 

OKC is coming off back-to-back sluggish losses against the Pacers and Pelicans, failing to reach the century mark in either ballgame following a streak of 20 games out of their previous 23 Read more

Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles

04.15.2014     10:09 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) at Baltimore -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Tampa Bay and Baltimore get together tonight for their second game of the series.  Last night saw the Orioles lay the lumber on young Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer.  The O's strung together 12 hits over his five innings and the result could have been much worse than the 7-1 final.  Baltimore has been swinging the bat well to start the season as they are second in the AL with 121 hits, but their main problem has been discipline at the plate.  They should be able to see plenty of pitches tonight from Rays starter Jake Odorizzi.  Odorizzi had a terrible outing in Kansas City last week giving up 10 hits and 7 earned runs in just 5 innings.  He's struggled to find the plate in both his starts averaging over 17 pitches per inning.  Baltimore counters with Miguel Gonzalez on the mound who hasn't been much better.  In fact Gonzalez has given up 10 earned runs already in just his 9.1 Read more

Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles Sammy P

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Betting tips on early season MLB totals

04.14.2014     07:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re two weeks into the marathon baseball season, but there hasn’t been a lot that stands out thusfar in the standings.  The Milwaukee Brewers are riding a nine-game winning streak into the new week, a surprise team with the best current record in baseball.  And the defending World Series champs, the Boston Red Sox, have slumped out of the gate, sitting in last place in the AL East. 

Frankly, we should expect these sorts of anomalies in early season play – in fact we should expect more of them than we’ve seen thusfar.  But there’s not much we can expect to accomplish from riding hot teams out of the gate and fading underachievers.  Based on two weeks’ worth of results, I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Brewers or against the Red Sox on a daily basis moving forward.  A hot or cold start is not necessarily a ‘leading indicator’ for a hot or cold season.

But MLB totals are a very different story.  I’ve written several previous articles about why I look to bet MLB totals – particularly Overs – all summer long.  To summarize three key points from those Read more

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapping: Indiana Pacers will play starters vs. Miami Heat

04.11.2014     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Rested and ready the Indiana Pacers head to Miami looking to secure the top seed in the Eastern Conference. According to reports, Indiana will play all of its starters. The Pacers have a half game lead over the Heat with three games remaining. Miami has four games left. No line as of this morning as oddsmakers wait to confirm who will play for both sides.

"There was a lot of energy at practice, they definitely had their legs," Vogel said. "The decision [to rest the starters] was every bit as much about the bench guys as the starters. Hopefully that took care of the bench, and the fresher legs will help the starters."

Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers Miami Heat

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers

04.09.2014     10:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Detroit +6.5 at Cleveland O/U 207
Recommendation: Detroit

I used the Cavs +6.5 as a free play when they travelled to Detroit less than two weeks ago and emerged with a one point SU victory.  In the rematch tonight, once again this pointspread is out of whack with current realities, but this time it’s Detroit offering legitimate value for their supporters.

The Cavs suffered brutal back-to-back losses last weekend; blown out by a Hawks team that they were chasing for the final playoff spot in the East, then knocked off at home in OT by the Bobcats.  While the Cavs remain technically alive for that last berth, they’ll need to win every game while the Hawks and Knicks lose every game; an extremely unlikely proposition.  For a squad with major chemistry issues that haven’t dissipated as the season has progressed, it’s hard to picture a circle-the-wagons level of effort this evening.

Detroit won at Cleveland on their last visit to Read more

Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling Alert: Wind blowing out at Wrigley 20+ mph

04.04.2014     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly
Philadelphia (Hernandez) at Chicago Cubs (Wood) -150 O/U 12.5

Wind blowing out to center/right center at 20+ mph. Philadelphia's Roberto Hernandez usually boasts one of the league's top groundball rates. Chicago's Travis Wood meanwhile had the league's second highest fly ball rate in 2013.




Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Chicago Cubs

NBA Handicapping: Chicago Bulls concerned with winning not first round matchup

04.04.2014     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
It is pretty obvious there are a number of NBA teams trying to lose for a better draft slot but every year around this time talks surface about "tanking" in order to secure a better postseason matchup. For whatever reason someone came up with the idea that the Chicago Bulls would be better served facing the Nets (2-1) as oppose to the Wizards (0-2). Joakim Noah ain’t buying it

"We're just trying to play good basketball," Noah said. "There's no way in hell we're going to try and lose games to match up against anybody. I think whatever happens, happens, so we're just going to keep playing our game, keep winning as much as we can, and then (we) can't wait for the playoffs."

"I think losing games to try to play somebody, I think that's soft," Noah said. "That's soft. We're not soft."

Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls


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