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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings Week 3

09.11.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think we’re getting closer to capturing the market. Not quite there yet. There were fewer head scratchers this week when comparing the transitions from last week.

It may be a mess for awhile in the 45-65 range because of volatility. A 55 may play like a 48 against quality but a 57 against other mid-50 teams. College sports are always messy because of the sheer volume of teams, and the fact that kids are inconsistent from week to week.

If you’re new to the site, these aren’t my “personal” ratings for all the teams. I’m not following college football nearly closely enough to have any real sense of probably the bottom 80 yet. This is my guess at how the market has the teams rated. I create “couplets” each week that match the Vegas spread (allotting 3 points for home field advantage), then I try to figure out where that couplet goes within the big scale. Over a few weeks, it’s not hard to hone in on a fairly good Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Kelly wants Eagles to play faster

09.11.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
According to Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly, the offense was slow during Monday night's win over Washington. In the first half, Philadelphia ran a staggering 53 plays (a snap every 22.5 seconds) before slowing down with a lead after the break. The betting markets are buying into Kelly's wishes: The total for Sunday's game vs. San Diego went from 51.5 to as high as 55. Two telling quotes from Kelly and his quarterback Michael Vick. Kelly says the offense needs to go faster whereas Vick flat out said it was going to be a "long season" – not sure if he means the ups and downs of adjusting to Kelly's style or that he's mentally prepared to be on injured reserve by Week 4.


"I've never been a part of anything like this," Michael Vick said, via TheMMQB.com. "When the first quarter was over, I thought we were about to go into halftime. Unreal. The only thing I could tell myself was, 'It's going to be a long season.'"

"I felt like it was slow, to be honest with you," Read more



Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 1

09.10.2013     03:11 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cause for concern for the defending champs
Most people knew there would be an adjustment period for the Baltimore Ravens after many changes during the offseason but the holes were very much evident following their humbling 49-27 season opening loss in Denver. The Ravens offense had a solid first half but simply died from the moment that both starting right tackle Michael Oher and receiver Jacoby Jones left the game with injuries. Oher’s injury isn’t serious but Jones will be sidelined for approximately 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. From that point of the game, the Ravens offense stalled repeatedly. Denver keyed in on the ground game and shut down running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Meanwhile, players like Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson proved they were not ready to step up and fill the production void left by the injuries to Jones and Dennis Pitta as well as the departed Anquan Boldin. That allowed Denver to focus their attention defensively on Torrey Smith and nobody else was able to step up for the Ravens in the receiving corps. Clark and Dickson both dropped multiple passes thrown to them by Joe Flacco. Baltimore’s secondary also Read more


Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




Sports Betting Podcast 9-10-2013 with Handicappers Brian Edwards and Ian Cameron

09.10.2013     10:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brian Edwards and Ian Cameron. Brian recapped Week 2 College Football (SEC, ACC, AAC) and Ian did the same (Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC).

Today's segments
Full Show

Brian Edwards - CFB Week 2 Recap: SEC, ACC, AAC

Ian Cameron - CFB Week 2 Recap: Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: College Football Brian Edwards Ian Cameron




NCAA Football Betting Trends: Alabama heads to Texas A&M off of bye week

09.10.2013     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Alabama -7.5 at Texas A&M O/U 62

A quick look at Alabama's track record with time to prepare under Nick Saban. Since 2007, the Crimson Tide went 8-4 SU/ATS. Note that in two of those losses to LSU, the Tigers also came in off of a bye week.

2012
at Missouri: WIN SU, WIN ATS
vs. Notre Dame (BCS): WIN SU, WIN ATS

2011
vs. LSU*: LOSS SU, LOSS ATS
vs. LSU (BCS): WIN SU, WIN ATS

2010
at LSU*: LOSS SU, LOSS ATS
vs. Michigan State (bowl): WIN SU, WIN ATS

2009
vs. LSU: WIN SU, WIN ATS
vs. Texas (BCS): WIN SU, WIN ATS

2008
vs. Auburn: WIN SU, WIN ATS
vs. Utah (bowl): LOSS SU, LOSS ATS

2007
vs. LSU: LOSS SU, LOSS ATS
vs. Colorado (bowl): WIN SU, WIN ATS




Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies Alabama Crimson Tide SEC




College Football Gambling Update: Texas' new DC thrown into the fire

09.10.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Mississippi at Texas

Update on Texas' change at defensive coordinator. Greg Robinson will have all of three practices to implement any changes if any. Also note that UT quarterback David Ask remains questionable with a head injury. He posted big numbers (19-of-23, 326 yards, 4 TDs) in last year's 66-31 win in Oxford.


“He’ll have three practices between now and Saturday to try to get us in a better spot,” Brown said. “It’s a tough deal for him.”

“Obviously right now, we’re not sure Read more



Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns Big XII Ole Miss Rebels SEC




NCAA Football Betting: West Virginia comes up with another solid showing on defense

09.10.2013     07:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Compared to last season, West Virginia's defensive performance against Oklahoma should be considered historic. The Mountaineers held the Sooners to 16 points (3 in the second half) in Norman after coughing up 50 in last year's meeting. Statistically they still allowed 435 total yards (316 on the ground) but managed to force four turnovers. In Week 1, WVU held William & Mary to 309 totals yards in a 24-17 win. It is hard to get too excited about the offensive explosiveness of both the Sooners and Tribe, but it is clearly a step in the right direction for West Virginia.


"Our kids, I knew we were a good defense," Patterson said after Saturday's loss. "I knew we were going to be. I think that we had a good plan, our kids felt comfortable and man, once we got into the flow of the game, I knew we could make it hard on them if we could stop the run."

"They played a heck of a game," junior Paul Millard said of WVU's defense. "Our defense came out there, they got turnovers, they did everything that we obviously Read more



Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII




NFL Betting Recap: Philadelphia Eagles soar early and hang on for outright win

09.10.2013     06:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You saw the best and the worst of what the Oregon approach has to offer for the Philadelphia Eagles in their Monday night season opener against the Washington Redskins.

*Early explosiveness

*A dumb turnover that gave away points

*A 26-7 halftime lead that could have been 29-0 or 33-0

*A loss of fire with a big lead

*A second-half run by Michael Vick where he seemed to strain a groin muscle before walking gingerly the rest of the night

 That 26-7 halftime lead only turned into a 33-27 victory. And the raw stats don’t really suggest something that’s about to take the league by storm. Let’s look at the linescore…
 
 Philadelphia 33 (+3.5), Washington 27

Philadelphia: 443 yards, 5.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 47% third downs

Washington: 382 yards, 5.5 per-play, 3 turnovers, 20% third downs

A lot of yards…but that’s because the team ran a lot of Read more


Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins




College Football Betting: Alabama currently -7.5 over Texas A&M

09.09.2013     12:26 PM     Printer Friendly
Alabama -7.5 at Texas A&M -O/U 63

We’ve seen some early line movement on the much anticipated matchup between Texas A&M and Alabama. CRIS opened the Crimson Tide at -7 and it got as high as -8.5 before settling in at -7.5 offshore. Note that Las Vegas' Coasts and Stations are currently dealing Alabama -9. Of course the Aggies won last year's meeting in Tuscaloosa, 29-24, as 13.5-point underdogs. The total in that game was 54.5 – significantly lower than this year's current market number of 63. We went back more than a decade and couldn't find an Alabama total lined north of 60.



Tags: College Football Alabama Crimson Tide Texas A&M Aggies SEC




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 1

09.09.2013     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 1.

Chicago Bears – Sure, the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year, but they won ten games and were one of the league's better teams. This defense can still make plenty of big plays, as evidenced by Charles Tillman's huge game and their complete domination against the run here. Jay Cutler did a great job finding open receivers on third and long. He connected on a pair of third and longs into very tight windows on Chicago's first touchdown drive. The revamped offensive line didn't do much for run blocking, but they gave Cutler all the time he needed all afternoon.

Cutler can still scramble out of pressure and his mobility created several opportunities that wouldn't have been there otherwise. But Cutler's propensity for making mistakes at crucial times was on display here, a horrible pass on first down as the Bears were driving in the fourth quarter. However, he made the most of his next Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints



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