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MLB Handicapping: Halladay looks to maintain good form vs. Cleveland

04.30.2013     07:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Philadelphia (Halladay) -115 at Cleveland (McAllister) O/U 8

Roy Halladay's ERA has been on a steady decline after a rough start to the season. Over his last three outings Halladay has notched a 1.71 ERA and .118 BAA (.120 BABIP). The competition however wasn't very strong. Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Miami all currently rank as below average National League offenses whereas Atlanta and New York, two teams that hit Halladay hard, rank in the upper-half the NL in slugging and OPS. Cleveland ranks second in the American League in slugging (.438) and OPS (.764).

"I think the mental part kind of got blown a little out of proportion," Halladay said. "It's a way of looking at a game. It's not a mental thing. It's how you approach the game. I think coming out of spring training, having short outings, having some poor outings, Read more

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Cleveland Indians

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland A's

04.29.2013     12:06 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
LA Angels (Hanson) at Oakland (Straily) -130 O/U 8
Recommendation: Oakland

I’ve been actively fading Tommy Hanson in the month of April. He has struggled in nearly every start and even though his last outing against Detroit looked good on paper, don’t be fooled for a second! Hanson labored immensely allowing six hits in six innings along with just two strikeouts and four walks on 102 pitches. He didn’t allow a run because the Tigers offense was inept that night. They had runners on base in nearly every inning but failed to get that one big, clutch hit with RISP to knock Hanson out of the game early. For the season Hanson has a 4.24 ERA and a porous 1.53 WHIP with a mediocre 8-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He could be in trouble tonight against an Oakland lineup that pounded out nine runs on 12 hits in a confidence boosting come from behind 9-8 win against Baltimore on Sunday. It’s worth noting that Hanson is coming off the bereavement list after the recent death of Read more

Tags: MLB Oakland A's Los Angeles Angels Ian Cameron

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NBA Western Conference Playoffs update

04.29.2013     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I broke down the Eastern Conference Playoff Race in this column, concluding (to no surprise) that the Miami Heat are truly deserving of their big chalk, heavy favorite status; clearly the team to beat. 

Last week, I got distracted by the upcoming (at the time) NFL Draft; looking to make my point that draft results hold surprisingly little influence over the opening Week 1 pointspreads, and that every prediction you read or hear about ‘Draft Grades’ is likely to be flawed at best, dead wrong at worst.

That being said, one other factor about the NFL Draft was perfectly clear this past weekend.  The better organizations in the NFL are in much better position to succeed than the weaker organizations.  Which is which?  Look no further than a recent recap of Super Bowl champs to identify ‘good’ organizations – squads with a short and long term plan, and the management team to implement that plan. 

The Ravens, Giants, Packers, Steelers, Patriots, Colts, Seahawks and 49ers are at the top of my ‘quality organization’ list, and you can assume a priori that those eight organizations Read more

Tags: NBA Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs Golden State Warriors Teddy Covers

NBA Playoff Gambling: Quick Market Assessment of Westbrook's Value

04.27.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve had time now for the market to react to the sad news that Russell Westbrook of Oklahoma City is going to miss time to have meniscus surgery. It looks like the composite of opinions rates his value at three points.

*Oklahoma City was -3 at Houston before the injury was announced

*Oklahoma City moved to pick-em on the news

*Some initial interest on the Rockets made it Houston -1 in places

*Oklahoma City money brought it back to pick-em
I know there are some in the field who think very few players are worth THAT much in terms of team Power Ratings. We’ll have to give the Thunder a few games to show us what the impact is going to be. For now, let’s assume that the market is correct. Let’s see what that does to the Western playoff picture based on our most recent assessment of the market ratings. Oklahoma had been an 86.

Estimated Market Power Ratings in the West

84: LA Clippers, Memphis Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Stat Intelligence

California's initial proposal for legalized sports betting is pretty lame

04.26.2013     12:16 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
California is eager to jump onboard with legalized sports betting as a recent bill met no opposition. Now everyone knows it needs to be cleared on a Federal level but for the sake of this blog, let's assume that takes place. The problem is the lameness of California's initial proposal. For starters you need to be 21 which is a reasonable request. Next, is the whole in person/no phone/no internet/straight cash/no credit deal. Oh, it gets better. You wouldn't be able to bet on college teams or events in the state. UCLA vs. USC? Nope. Betting the Holiday Bowl over the total? Sorry. We applaud these states for trying to get sports betting legalized even though "personal freedoms" comes a distant second to revenue it terms of motivation. But if you are going to do it, do it right, and recognize that it's 2013 and your profits under the proposed measures would be nickels and dimes compared to and online/mobile format. Perhaps it's just a case of the state wanting something as oppose to nothing. Fine. But don't expect to put a dent in the state's Read more

NBA Playoff Betting: Update Power Ratings

04.26.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s catch up with a couple of things. First, an updated look at the estimated Power Ratings for the 16 playoff teams based on market prices. I’m using the posted G3 lines to tweak what we had seen earlier.

It gets kind of goofy now because the market tends to boost the “home opener-must win” teams 1-2 points…and there can be a tendency to make home court advantage worth 4 points instead of 3 in the postseason depending on how results are going. For now…I’m going to keep using 3…but I’ve sent up separate home/road numbers for several teams. I think there’s an additional “must win” boost in the mix for Boston, Atlanta and Houston that may or may not be justified. You saw that in the Memphis line Thursday given the 10-point distance from the G2 number to the G3 number with the site switch.

88: Miami

86: Oklahoma City

84: LA Clippers, Memphis (home)

83: Denver (home), Read more

Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence

Sportsbooks post prop bets on tonight's NFL Draft

04.25.2013     12:17 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
They are calling it the least anticipated NFL Draft in years but that hasn't stopped various sportsbooks from posting prop bets on tonight's first round (NFL Network, 5 pm PT). Below are lines from both Bookmaker and The Greek. You know it's a lame draft when the over/under on number of running backs in the first round is one (with juice to the under) and Geno Smith is considered by many to be the top quarterback prospect.

1st Round Prop Bets
Total Offensive Players
Bookmaker - 13.5
Greek - 11ov-1200

Total Defensive Players
Bookmaker - 18.5
Greek - 21.5un-1200

Total Players from ACC
Bookmaker - 4ov-165
Greek - 4ov-135

Total Players from Big XII
Bookmaker - 4
Greek - 4

Total Players from PAC-12
Bookmaker - 4
Greek - 4

Total Players from SEC
Bookmaker - 13un-310
Greek - 13un-300

Total Running Backs
Bookmaker - 1un-160
Greek - 1un-160

Total Wide Receivers + Tight Ends
Bookmaker - 5un-300
Greek - Read more

Tags: NFL

NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Pacers and Spurs win and cover, take 2-0 lead

04.25.2013     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Treys by the Keg, Tired Legs, and Goose Eggs...

Some very interesting games to talk about as we continue our coverage of the NBA Playoffs.. We’ll pick up with Tuesday’s late finisher, then run through all three of Wednesday’s matchups. I’ll try to find some things that aren’t being dwelled upon much in the mainstream media coverage I’ve been monitoring. See if you can figure out which games match which headline terms! ("bushel" didn’t fit the rhyme scheme)

Golden State 131, Denver 117

2-Point Percentage: Golden State 69%, Denver 57%

3-Point Shooting: Golden State 14/25, Denver 9/26

Free Throws: Golden State 15/20, Denver 28/37

1’s and 2’s: Golden State 89, Denver 90

Rebounds: Golden State 36, Denver 26

Turnovers: Golden State 17, Denver 15

As I’ve mentioned before, this series is being very well covered in the Read more

Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers San Antonio Spurs Stat Intelligence

NBA Handicapping: Knicks, Heat, and Clippers take 2-0 series leads

04.24.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You regulars are familiar with the KRIB Index that we invented here in the Blog. That’s an acronym for Knicks Re-Invent Basketball, and was based on their amazing ability this year to make treys while avoiding giveaways. I won’t rehash all that because its old news by now. I bring the theme up again because those two categories are looming very large in New York’s current series with Boston.

*New York is much better than Boston from behind the arc, and already enjoys a 16-10 edge in made treys through the first two games of their series. That’s +18 points out of their +23 overall edge on the scoreboard.

*As Steve Kerr was pointing out tonight on the TNT broadcast, Boston has little chance to cash in cheap points off New York turnovers because the Knicks don’t make many. If Boston’s going to lose three’s most every game, they obviously have to make up for that with one’s and two’s if they have any hope of competing in Read more

Tags: NBA New York Knicks Los Angeles Clippers Memphis Grizzlies Miami Heat Boston Celtics Stat Intelligence

NBA Handicapping: What Game 1 means to the rest of the series

04.23.2013     01:51 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Some interesting statistics regarding NBA home teams that post blowouts in Game 1.

The good news, though, is that a set of Game One blowouts doesn’t predict the same outcome in Game Two. The correlation between first-round home-team wins in Game Ones and Game Twos is negative: The more home teams win their openers, the fewer win their second games — though the relationship is very slight.

Tags: NBA


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