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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason

08.05.2013     07:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a How to Beat the NFL Preseason article just about every year.  But this is no cut-and-paste from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically. 

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year.  Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.  

Part of the change is the pointspread itself.  What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5.  As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.

At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade.  Coach’s gameplans change over time, as Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Underdog Dallas Cowboys win outright over Miami Dolphins

08.05.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Hall of Fame games are never a thing of beauty. But, it’s good to have football back, even if the second half quarterbacks were from Monmouth, Illinois and Delaware (though Matt Moore of Miami came back on the field to lead a last second TD drive). Here are the final numbers...

Dallas 24 (+3), Miami 20

Total Yardage: Miami 421, Dallas 267

Yards-per-Play: Miami 5.5, Dallas 4.7

Rushing Yards: Miami 111, Dallas 171

Passing Stats: Miami 29-47-1-310, Dallas 11-21-0-96

Turnovers: Miami 2, Dallas 0

Drive Points: Miami 10, Dallas 0

Stat Score: Miami 24, Dallas 20

If you’re new to the site, “drive points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. We keep track of those to get as clear a read as possible for which offenses can move the ball and score, and which defenses can prevent it. Probably not very meaningful in exhibition games…but I wanted to throw it in there as Read more


Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Dallas Cowboys Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Indiana sees up-tempo as key vs. Big Ten

08.02.2013     01:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Not every team in the Big Ten likes to play at a pedestrian pace and grind out games. Indiana and Penn State ranked in the top 25 nationally in terms of plays per game last season. In Kevin Wilson's second season, the Hoosiers ranked second in the Big Ten in yards per game (442.0). According to Wilson, playing up-tempo is the best way to level the playing field against the rest of the conference.


"We understand that when we substitute, the referee gives the other team a chance to match that substitution," he said. "We also understand that when we don't substitute, we can go fast. I believe in playing fast. I believe in different tempos."

"Fans want to see points," Wilson said. "With HD TV, every league and the professionals, everyone’s worried about fan experience. Great defense, you want it, I don’t think every game’s gotta be a 42-40 shootout, but I don't think anybody wants a 1-0 shutout. I don’t think we're playing 7-3 football." 





Tags: College Football Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten




Canadian Football League Week 5 Betting Recap

08.01.2013     12:38 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 5 in the Canadian Football League as I provide quick hitter, team-by-team analysis…

Montreal Alouettes (2-3 SU/ATS)
It wasn’t pretty but the performance was effective enough for Montreal to snap its three-game losing streak with a 32-27 win that included a controversial finish. Edmonton appeared to have the go ahead touchdown with 10 seconds left only to be stopped at the goal line but no replay was ordered on the play. So the games carried on and the Eskimos got stopped on a run play from the 1-yard line and Montreal hung on for the win. The Alouettes were better offensively but they still went through stretches where it looked like nobody was on the same page. The defense made a few key stops down the stretch none more vital than the goal line stand at the end of the game. This was baby steps forward for Montreal but they still were life and death to win at home against a very poor Eskimos squad.

Toronto Argonauts (3-2 SU/ATS)
Welcome to the Canadian Football League Zach Collaros! The kid had himself a night and it came against arguably the best defense in the CFL that being the Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




College Football Handicapping: American Athletic Conference Stat Day

08.01.2013     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Our final look at a mid-major conference features the new American Athletic Conference. It’s a 10-team league that currently features six teams from last year’s Big East, and four teams from last year’s Conference USA. You can see an emphasis on markets in the CUSA invitees. SMU and Houston bring Dallas and Houston into the fold. Central Florida is based in Orlando...in the heart of a sports-loving state and near the massive amusement park complex run by the company that owns ESPN. Memphis isn’t a megaplex, but it’s in a great football state while also being in an NBA city. The conference is hoping to grow into a big deal given that strategy.

It’s not really a big deal yet. Though, Louisville sure did the conference proud last year in the Sugar Bowl when they stunned Florida. The most surprising thing to me about the numbers you’ll be reading today is that Louisville didn’t look all that dominant by Big East standards. They played a lot of close games in a mediocre (or worse) conference before catching arrogant Florida napping and Read more


Tags: College Football AAC Stat Intelligence




NCAA Football Gambling: Clemson defense could surprise in DC Venables' second year

07.30.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Clemson Tigers put up some impressive offensive numbers during last season's 11-2 campaign and are expected to do the same in 2013 with quarterback Tajh Boyd back. But keep an eye out for the defense under second-year in defensive coordinator Brent Venables. The Tigers allowed 440.2 yards per game the first seven games of 2012 but improved to 345.3 ypg their final six contests.


"We solved some issues and got substantially better as the year went on," he said.

"You could see us getting better each week. The players understanding more and more about what we wanted them to do," defensive ends coach Marion Hobby said. "We think that's going to continue this year."






Tags: College Football Clemson Tigers ACC




NFL Handicapping: Rules may hinder Kelly's up-tempo offense

07.30.2013     01:44 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia Eagles first-year head coach Chip Kelly wants to run a play every 12 seconds. NFL rules may not allow it.


"We have to make sure teams understand that they don't control the tempo, our officials do," NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino told The Wall Street Journal. "We're going through our normal ball mechanics, we aren't going to rush [unless] it's in the two minute drill."






Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles




College Football Gambling: Missouri Tigers ready for second season in SEC

07.30.2013     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Missouri Tigers took their lumps in more ways than one during their first season in the SEC. They finished 5-7 overall and 2-6 in league play – wins vs. Tennessee (OT) and Kentucky. Against the SEC's elite (Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas A&M) the Tigers went 0-4 SU/ATS and were outscored 173-69. But it should be noted that Mizzou dealt with a lot of injuries last season, in particular to the offensive line. According to Pinnacle, Missouri is lined at 6ov-134 regular season wins.


"I'm not going to use it as an excuse, but there were definitely times when it affected us more mentally than physically," Franklin said at SEC media days. "We let it affect us more mentally, and it kept us from doing what we wanted to do. I'm not saying we were going to win a championship or anything, but we definitely would have been better than 5-7."

"Last year was different from any other time since I've been in coaching," Pinkel said. "I had never lost a starting quarterback for a game or two at all, Read more



Tags: College Football Missouri Tigers SEC




Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Report Will Be Released Today!

07.30.2013     06:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Click here to purchase

copy_tc_nfl_o_u_2.jpg

Below is the written analysis Teddy provided to his clients with last year's O/U Win Report. He went 4-0-1 with his recommendations.


2012 NFL Season Win Total Report: Part 1

All lines in this report are current as of 10 AM Pacific on Tuesday, July 31st.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.  I used seven offshore sports books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker, Greek, Bovada, Grande, ABC Islands and WSEX ) as fodder for my ‘best available current line’, but there’s no reason to think that you won’t be able to find a better number elsewhere – line shoppers are routinely rewarded in the Over-Under win total marketplace. 

Each and every one of these numbers is also available at the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, but I used the offshore numbers in this report knowing that many clients don’t have access to the Vegas numbers.  It is VERY important to get the win totals posted on this report – a half game can make an enormous difference, Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Roethlisberger optimistic about second season with OC Haley

07.29.2013     01:04 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger opens up about the difficulties of adjusting to offensive coordinator Todd Haley's system last season.


“The guys like it in the huddle because it's up tempo, everybody's getting involved, everyone is catching passes and we were pretty successful with it — that's probably the frustration (with the lack of it),” Roethlisberger said.

“He brought it in and (said) 'Here's my stuff, here's what we're going to do.' So it was hard for us to say, 'Hey, we were pretty doggone good last year, what were we 12-4?'” Roethlisberger said Saturday on the first practice day of Steelers training camp. “We would say, 'Oh, we know this play, it's the same thing we had, but it's called completely different.' So why not call it the same thing? So there was a lot of frustration with that.”

“To me, I'd like to be an up tempo team — not necessarily no-huddle — and let's score as many points as we can,” said Roethlisberger, who is entering Read more



Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 02, 2014 09:40 PM.