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January

29

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College Football Betting: Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.02.2013     01:25 PM     Printer Friendly
Below are the Big Ten's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. It's the last season of the Leaders and Legends divisions with Rutgers and Maryland joining next season to form the more logically named East and West. As for 2013, it’s Ohio State and everyone else according to oddsmakers and the betting markets. The Buckeyes are the second choice behind Alabama for the BCS crown at 8-1, -110 to win the Big Ten Championship, and a huge -465 favorite to win the Leaders Division. The schedule sets up well with six of OSU's first eight in Columbus and winnable road games at Cal, Northwestern, Purdue and Indiana. They do however travel to Ann Arbor to close out the regular season. As for the rest of the Big Ten, Michigan State and Wisconsin are slated to improve after 6- and 7-win seasons, respectively. The Legends Division looks fairly balanced with the Spartans, Nebraska, Michigan, and Northwestern all lined at 8.5-9.5 wins. The Wolverines are the slight betting favorite at +230.

2013 Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Big Ten Leaders
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Ohio State
12
11.5un-195
Penn State
8
8.5un-195
Wisconsin
7
8.5ov-210
Purdue
6
5.5un-245
Indiana
4
5.5ov-210
Illinois
2
3.5ov-160
Big Ten Legends
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Nebraska
10
9.5ov-130
Michigan
8
9.5un-135
Northwestern
9
8.5un-140
Michigan State
6
8.5
Minnesota
6
5.5
Iowa
4
5.5un-140





Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten




MLB Gambling News: Which is the Best Division in Baseball?

07.02.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Another topic fitting for our lawyer/judge conversation of late. Today SB Nation posted an article called “The NL Central, Baseball’s Best Division.”

That seemed odd, considering that:

*Cincinnati fans are up in arms about how the Reds were squashed in their recent matchups with Oakland and Texas from the superior American League. The Redlegs went 1-4, getting outclassed on the scoreboard 23-11

*St. Louis fans were licking their own wounds after going 1-5 vs. the same two American League teams. Remember that the Cards were swept at home by the Rangers last weekend, before dropping two of three to the A’s this weekend.

I mean…NOW’s the time you want to make the case that the NL Central is the best in baseball?! The American League has established superiority for several years now. Both the Reds Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Notes for All 30 Teams Amidst "Four-Max" Updates

07.01.2013     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, back with updates for the four-max MLB averages we’ve been studying the past few weeks here on these pages. If you’re new to the site, we’re trying to rate offenses for a combination of volume and consistency in terms of their ability to score in the first five innings. This was designed with market propositions for “first half” baseball action in mind…but the approach also works as a strong general way to rank offenses because you’re seeing how the manager’s preferred lineups are doing against opposing rotations.

Keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings.

*Use a cut-off four runs (hence the term, “four-max”) to help take out the influence that big outliers may have…and to create a median of 2 (0-1-2-3-4) that best approximates the reality of early scoring.

For some teams I’ll use “road only” numbers because they play in extreme home parks that Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more


Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Recap: Friday Night News and Notes

06.29.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw together some notes after all. Let’s take the games in rotation order…

*Cole of Pittsburgh got another win. He’s proving to be an interesting pitcher to handicap. He throws 100 mph but doesn’t get strikeouts at a rate you’d expect. At least not so far. Only 3 K’s tonight in 6 innings. He got rocked in the first inning…but then the Pirates scored a zillion runs off the latest Brewers desperation pitcher. The Pirates “four-max” offense (scoring totals in the first five innings with a peak cut-off right at four) the last six games is 4-4-3-4-2-4. They continue a relative explosion from an extended slump several weeks ago.

*Nolasco of Florida has been featured in a lot of trade talk of late. He’s so inconsistent…you can’t be sure that whoever gets him is going to be happy. I’ve arranged his first half runs allowed totals from best to worst. Note how few games are right at a Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




Canadian Football League Betting Free Play: B.C. Lions at Calgary Stampeders

06.28.2013     09:29 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
B.C. +3.5 at Calgary O/U 52
Recommendation: B.C.


There are some extenuating circumstances heading into tonight’s matchup between the BC Lions and Calgary Stampeders. The major one being the recent flooding that has plagued the city of Calgary. On one hand, the Stamps might be bolstered with energy and emotion to play hard and win tonight for the people that have suffered through so much over the last week. Perhaps a solid performance can give them some temporary relief from the devastating flood situation. On the other hand, Calgary’s practice and preparation for this game was altered a bit due to the flood and it leaves a legitimate question; how well prepared and focused can Calgary be with everything that is going on around them?

That is a very real debate I have about this game and it is why my wager is a smaller, free play variety one in this game. However, putting the flood situation aside for one moment, I believe BC is the better of these teams and will be the better team come the end of the season making them worthy of support catching a FG Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Betting Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles

06.27.2013     10:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland (Kluber) +120 at Baltimore (Gonzalez) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Cleveland


The Indians have been a streaky team all year, and they’re streaking in a positive direction right now.  They went 18-4 from late April through mid-May, but followed that up with a miserable 4-17 stretch.  Now the Tribe have turned that around, 10-4 in their last 14 ballgames, including four straight series wins and six wins at an underdog price during that span.  Meanwhile, the Orioles are slumping, losers of five of their last six.  And it’s surely worth noting that the vast majority of profits that Baltimore has earned this year have come in the road underdog role, not the home favorite’s role.

Cleveland’s Corey Kluber has notched the win in each of his last three starts, allowing only four runs in 21.2 innings during that span.  His control has been masterful: 69 strikeouts compared to only 13 walks.  And with a .327 BABIP and a 2.98 xFIP, Read more


Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Baltimore Orioles Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings (w/ Mid-Majors)

06.26.2013     10:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I know I promised some baseball for the late Tuesday report. Ended up spending the evening logging college football stuff out of Athlon. Turned into quite the filibuster! So it's midnight ET, and it's probably better to just tweak a prior football report. I re-checked the "Game of the Year" lines from the Golden Nugget so I could add in the mid-majors that were missed in the earlier estimate of market power ratings.

Mid-Majors (the handful mentioned in GOY lines)

Boise State 68 (Mountain West)

Tulsa 63 (Conference USA)

San Diego State 60 (Mountain West)

Navy 55 (Independent)

Nevada 53 (Mountain West)

Colorado State 50 (Mountain West)

Southern Miss 49 (Conference USA)

UNLV 48 (Mountain West)

Central Michigan 47 (MAC)

Army 46 (Independent)

We have a few new readers and twitter followers (@jefffogle) Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Wisconsin Badgers loaded with experience

06.25.2013     02:16 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisconsin boasts the most returning lettermen (83.87%) of any team BCS team according to Phil Steele. The Badgers will be playing under first-year head coach Gary Andersen (Utah State) this season. On the flip side, Big Ten foe Penn State ranks 125th (53.29%) out of 126. As noted by ESPN.com, last year, the top three BCS teams in terms of returning lettermen (Florida, Oregon, and Stanford) all earned BCS bowl berths. Notre Dame, however, ranked 121st, and played Alabama (104th) for the National Championship.



Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten



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