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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for the Sweet Sixteen

03.27.2013     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are the numbers we’ve been following through the Dance in tip-off order by locale. Note that I’ve updated the pace rankings from Kenpom’s website…those are the numbers as of Tuesday evening. All the other numbers you see are CONFERENCE ONLY per game averages because I wanted to take out the crazy extremes of non-conference schedules, particularly since those games were played so long ago anyway. The “conference advantage” numbers from Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings were also tabulated Tuesday night.

Some reference points.

The typical college defense allowed about 47.5% on two-pointers this year. Numbers less than that represent better than average inside defense. The typical offense made 6.0 treys per game. Interestingly, NONE of the 16 teams left averaged between 6.0 and 6.9 in their league games. We have quite a few trey-heavy teams at 7.0 makes or more. I’m surprised by how many teams were in the low 5’s or less. Always Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




Nevada residents may be able to bet on elections

03.26.2013     11:13 AM     Printer Friendly
Nevada may allow legalized wagering on presidential elections.


“Simply to make money for the state,” said Segerblom, chairman of the state Senate’s Judiciary Committee, when asked why he was pushing the law. “I’ve been following elections and betting in London, and (gaming companies there) are making a fortune. Why not do it here?”

“Let’s be frank here. You’re not going to throw a federal election in the United States,” Segerblom said, noting sports gambling hasn’t led to widespread corruption: “What’s unique about football? Has football been corrupted? I don’t think so.”











College Basketball Betting: Weather forces Evansville to bus to Canisius

03.26.2013     10:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Evansville at Canisius -1.5 O/U 147.5

Here is the crazy story of Evansville's 10-hour bus trip to Buffalo for tonight's CIT Tournament matchup against Canisius.


“Due to weather conditions we aren’t flying and we have to drive ALL the way to New York for our game Tuesday!!” tweeted Aces senior Troy Taylor at about 3 p.m. Sunday, or 24 hours after UE finished off a second-round CIT win over Eastern Kentucky.

“We’ve never had to bus 10-plus hours on such short notice, so it’s kind of exciting just to get that feel for having your team, the coaches and the program,” Ryan said. “You just pick up and go. You don’t know where you’re going next. You just win, and there’s some excitement about who you’re playing next and just stuff like today.






Tags: College Basketball Evansville Aces Canisius Golden Griffins




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers breaks down the Sweet Sixteen

03.25.2013     11:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament.   The two best conferences in the regular season – the Big Ten and the Big East – proved to be the two best conferences in the Big Dance, sending seven teams to the Sweet Sixteen.  The ACC and the PAC-12 were the only two other conferences to send multiple teams onto the second weekend of the Big Dance. 

This week, I’ll be taking a look at the sixteen remaining teams in the field; assessing their chances for tournament success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend.  Teams are listed in rotation order.

Syracuse is drawing comparisons to the UConn team that won it all two years ago.  The Orange, like the Huskies, slumped down the stretch of the regular season.  Like the Huskies, they came on strong in the Big East tournament, rebuilding their confidence in the process.  Also like UConn, Syracuse has all kinds of NBA ready talent. Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland and Brandon Triche are all expected to be drafted this spring.  Don’t Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Points of Reference for Sunday

03.24.2013     07:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Estimated Power Ratings going by seed line for remaining 24 teams.

1…Louisville 89, Indiana 87, Kansas 84

2…Duke 86, Ohio State 84, Miami 84

3…Florida 87, Michigan State 84, Marquette 80

4…Michigan 84, Syracuse 83

6…Arizona 82

7…Creighton 81, San Diego State 80, Illinois 78

8…North Carolina 79

9…Wichita State 78, Temple 76

10…Iowa State 77

11…Minnesota 79

12… Mississippi 79, Oregon 78

13…LaSalle 76

15…Florida Gulf Coast 72

A maximum of 11 teams seeded for the Sweet 16 can make it now. At least two teams seeded #12 or worse will be there. Are any more upsets on the way?

Statlines for Saturday and Sunday. The stats are from “conference only” regular season games. The pace numbers are from Kenpom from the beginning of the week. The Conference advantages are from Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Updated Market Power Ratings

03.21.2013     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve made a few tweaks to the estimated Market Power Ratings we put together the other day based on sharp line movements since the openers. When we say “market,” we’re most interested in the combination of oddsmakers (openers) plus sharps (improving the openers), and not so much the public…whose money will hit the board Thursday and Friday now that tourists have arrived with their money, alumni baseball caps, and temporarily ecstatic optimism.

To give us all a sense of what the weekend lines might look like, I’ve also written up those projected numbers based on these current ratings. It gets goofy to write up every single possibility…and I don’t think anyone really cares right now what the line would probably be if Southern plays Wichita State. So, I’m penciling in wins for all seeds 1-4 just to make things easy. Obviously history says some of those teams will bite the dust. It won’t be hard to look up a good estimate if Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for St. Mary's/MTSU and Boise State/La Salle

03.19.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m going to skip the two play-in games on the #16 seed rung because those teams are so obscure…and basically irrelevant for the week. Here are some notes on the other two play in games. St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tennessee will be played Tuesday night in Dayton, Boise State/LaSalle on Wednesday night.

Hybrid Estimates

St. Mary’s: +12.8 average margin in Big West, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 75.31

Middle Tennessee: +16.5 average margin in the Sun Belt, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 69.51

Middle Tennessee is +3.7 on the raw total, but St. Mary’s played in a conference that was +5.8 points better. So, that’s St. Mary’s by 2.1 points. The Vegas line as I write this is St. Mary’s. Pretty close there.

Boise State: +1.1 average margin in the Mountain West, which has a Sagarin rating of 80.71

LaSalle: +5.5 average margin in the Atlantic 10, which has a Sagarin rating of Read more


Tags: College Basketball Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders St. Mary's Gaels Boise State Broncos La Salle Explorers Stat Intelligence




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers takes a look at 28 NCAA Tournament matchups

03.18.2013     10:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With the madness that is March now in full swing, it’s time to take a look through the brackets.  Today, I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday.  Games are listed in rotation order.

Missouri spent the entire season losing close games on the road, falling in OT at UCLA and Kentucky, while dropping games by three points or less at Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament.  Larry Eustachy got the most he could out of Colorado State’s talent level this year, but the Rams, too, lost nearly every step-up game on the highway.

As a No. 3 seed, Marquette is only a 3.5-point favorite over No. 14 seed Davidson.  The betting markets clearly respect the Wildcats five upperclassmen starters that started 30 of their 33 previous games together this season.

Butler has won at least the first two games of every single postseason tournament they’ve played since 2010, including runs in the Horizon League and A-10 conference tourney’s, two runs to the championship Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: UNLV short favorites in rematch vs. California

03.18.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
California vs. UNLV -3

The Mountain West Conference is well represented in this year's NCAA Tournament with five teams making the field. Of those five teams, four are currently favored in their first round matchups including UNLV (-3) vs. California (at San Jose). The Rebels won in Berkeley earlier this season, 76-75, and 1.5-point underdogs.


“Any time when you have a game like that where it was very close, I think the advantage goes to the loser of the first matchup,” said LVH Superbook Executive Director Jay Kornegay. “I think Cal will be a little more motivated to beat UNLV than the other way around. UNLV is going to have to overcome that.”






Tags: College Basketball UNLV Running Rebels California Golden Bears




Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview

03.13.2013     04:08 PM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Big Ten Tournament Preview

Michigan State cut down the nets last year in Banker’s Life Fieldhouse as the winner of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans were the No. 1 seed which marked the fifth time in the last six years the top team won.  This year’s event moves to the United Center in Chicago and the bullseye will fall on the Indiana Hoosiers who won the regular season crown and earned the No. 1 seed after knocking off Michigan last Sunday.  However, this is as deep a tournament field as I can remember since the inaugural event in 1998.  For much of the regular season you could throw a blanket over Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and even Wisconsin.  Keep in mind in late December Minnesota and Illinois were respectively ranked 11th and 12th in the country and then play in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game tomorrow. 

First Round Pick/Darkhorse:  Iowa 
The Hawkeyes are a longshot to get to the Big Dance, but a rapidly improving basketball team, with a 20-11 record.  The Hawkeyes showed improvement down the stretch by winning six of their last eight games outright, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Erin Rynning



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