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MLB Handicapping: Notes for All 30 Teams Amidst "Four-Max" Updates

07.01.2013     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, back with updates for the four-max MLB averages we’ve been studying the past few weeks here on these pages. If you’re new to the site, we’re trying to rate offenses for a combination of volume and consistency in terms of their ability to score in the first five innings. This was designed with market propositions for “first half” baseball action in mind…but the approach also works as a strong general way to rank offenses because you’re seeing how the manager’s preferred lineups are doing against opposing rotations.

Keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings.

*Use a cut-off four runs (hence the term, “four-max”) to help take out the influence that big outliers may have…and to create a median of 2 (0-1-2-3-4) that best approximates the reality of early scoring.

For some teams I’ll use “road only” numbers because they play in extreme home parks that Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




Olympian says track and field needs beer and gambling

07.01.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Well this is refreshing. US Olympian Nick Symmonds has suggested a way to make track and field more enjoyable to watch for the common fan. Needless to say, we think his idea is awesome.


“Pop culture has a short attention span and likes booze and gambling. Why don’t we give ‘em an abbreviated meet — like this meet is perfect. It’s two-and-a-half hours with something always going on.

“I’m about as diehard a track fan as you’re going to find and I don’t want to sit out under the sun for eight hours to watch a really slow, poorly run track meet.

“I certainly don’t want to do it on a Saturday afternoon without a beer in my hand.”











In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more


Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Recap: Friday Night News and Notes

06.29.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw together some notes after all. Let’s take the games in rotation order…

*Cole of Pittsburgh got another win. He’s proving to be an interesting pitcher to handicap. He throws 100 mph but doesn’t get strikeouts at a rate you’d expect. At least not so far. Only 3 K’s tonight in 6 innings. He got rocked in the first inning…but then the Pirates scored a zillion runs off the latest Brewers desperation pitcher. The Pirates “four-max” offense (scoring totals in the first five innings with a peak cut-off right at four) the last six games is 4-4-3-4-2-4. They continue a relative explosion from an extended slump several weeks ago.

*Nolasco of Florida has been featured in a lot of trade talk of late. He’s so inconsistent…you can’t be sure that whoever gets him is going to be happy. I’ve arranged his first half runs allowed totals from best to worst. Note how few games are right at a Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Quick Four-Max Notes on all 30 Offenses

06.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’m back with updated numbers from the “four-max” approach of evaluating the volume and consistency of Major League offenses for those of you trying to handicap 5-inning propositions. They generally paint an accurate overall picture of offensive quality too since we’re looking at what teams do with their starting lineups against rotation pitchers on other teams.

I had planned on waiting to post until the first five innings were complete in the Texas/St. Louis game on ESPN…but that’s in a rain delay as I’m typing this. No reason to wait a couple of hours (or more) waiting for that to work itself out. Let’s jump into the numbers.

The keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings

*Stop at 4 for any team in an individual game so volume isn’t polluted by superfluous runs against a guy who didn’t have anything, or against that guy and the lousy long reliever who replaced Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NBA Finals Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs Surge Back Into Series Lead

06.17.2013     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It was surely a team effort from the San Antonio Spurs Sunday Night. You could point to any individual and find a lot to sing about.

*Manu Ginobili had his “back from the dead” game after seeing Dwyane Wade do that for the Heat the last time out.

*Danny Green continued his unprecedented three-point shooting, nailing 6 of 10 from long range.

*Tony Parker ran the offense effectively…which was important tonight because San Antonio was being very aggressive in terms of attacking QUICKLY. Not fast break points, but…as Zach Lowe of Grantland  pointed out on twitter…by getting the ball into the post quickly. Parker was also 10 of 14 shooting.

*Tim Duncan wasn’t the star of the game…but he was 7 of 10 from the floor, grabbed 12 rebounds and blocked 3 shots.

As you know if you watched the game…all of that production came out of a team approach. It wasn’t a case of different guys trying to take Read more


Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling News: Pitching helps Toronto Blue Jays crawl back to respectability

06.17.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado (De La Rosa) at Toronto (Johnson) -150 O/U 9

It took them a while but over the last two weeks the Toronto Blue Jays have started to play up to their preseason expectations. They've won eight of 10 including six of seven against Texas (outscored the Rangers 38-14). During that 10-game swatch the rag-tag bunch of Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Ramon Ortiz, RA Dickey, Esmil Rogers, and Chien-Ming Wang helped post a team ERA of 2.09. The team is hoping Johnson can regain some of his form – if anything to give him value on the free agent market. Note the betting market’s 20 cent move towards Johnson and the Jays for tonight’s contest against the Rockies. Overall, the Jays find themselves four games under .500 and about to embark on very difficult portion of their schedule with upcoming series against Colorado, Baltimore, Read more


Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Colorado Rockies




MLB Handicapping: Texas Rangers "First Half" Scoring Slump Continues

06.16.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Texas Rangers have really hit the skids offensively in recent weeks. They’re typically a bit overrated with the bats anyway because they play their home games in such a great hitting environment. Now they can’t even score at home. Let's take a look at that from the perspective of five-inning handicapping.

Current Homestand “First Half” Scoring from Worst to Best

Opponents: 1-3-4-4-5-5

Rangers: 0-0-0-1-1-3

June conditions are usually excellent for scoring in Arlington. And, you can see that they have been for Cleveland and Toronto! The Rangers were shut out in the first five innings by Kluber, Beurhle, and Dickey…none of whom are setting the world on fire this year. What you could call “par” in the first five is usually 3 right now because Over/Unders are so high at that stadium. Texas only made it there once in six games. Opponents made it there in five and six, and surpassed it in four of six.

This Read more


Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Stat Intelligence




NBA Gambling Alert: Bettors pepper Miami Heat for Sunday's Game 5

06.14.2013     01:57 PM     Printer Friendly
Miami -1.5 at San Antonio O/U 187.5

Another big move towards the Miami Heat, only this time the betting markets didn't wait around until game day. Following last night's Game 4, Pinnacle opened with the Spurs -1.5 for Sunday's Game 5. For the next 10 minutes, Pinny didn't take a bet that wasn't on Miami. By this morning the Heat were favored and now sit -1.5.

copy_heat_spurs_3.JPG

 



Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs




NBA Finals Betting Recap: Miami Heat Magnificent, Series Even at 2-2

06.14.2013     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

For the first time in I don’t know how long, we saw the Miami Heat at truly peak intensity. It wasn’t even about finding that extra gear for a short spurt when needed. Miami hustled in all elements of play from the get-go. San Antonio hung with them through three quarters thanks to effective three-point shooting (50% from the floor again, though it was 8 of 16 rather than 16 of 32) and by earning more free throws. Just a fantastic game through three quarters because the Heat were truly at a peak, and the Spurs were hanging with them.

In the fourth, the Spurs ran out of gas while the stars who promised Miami they would bring multiple championships played like Hall-of-Famers.

The TV coverage has already talked a lot about the individual stars. No reason to add to that. Don’t want to suggest I’m de-emphasizing those gaudy individual numbers…because they were obviously very important. But, I’d just be repeating all the other coverage Read more


Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs Stat Intelligence



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