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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for St. Mary's/MTSU and Boise State/La Salle

03.19.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m going to skip the two play-in games on the #16 seed rung because those teams are so obscure…and basically irrelevant for the week. Here are some notes on the other two play in games. St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tennessee will be played Tuesday night in Dayton, Boise State/LaSalle on Wednesday night.

Hybrid Estimates

St. Mary’s: +12.8 average margin in Big West, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 75.31

Middle Tennessee: +16.5 average margin in the Sun Belt, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 69.51

Middle Tennessee is +3.7 on the raw total, but St. Mary’s played in a conference that was +5.8 points better. So, that’s St. Mary’s by 2.1 points. The Vegas line as I write this is St. Mary’s. Pretty close there.

Boise State: +1.1 average margin in the Mountain West, which has a Sagarin rating of 80.71

LaSalle: +5.5 average margin in the Atlantic 10, which has a Sagarin rating of Read more


Tags: College Basketball Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders St. Mary's Gaels Boise State Broncos La Salle Explorers Stat Intelligence




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers takes a look at 28 NCAA Tournament matchups

03.18.2013     10:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With the madness that is March now in full swing, it’s time to take a look through the brackets.  Today, I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday.  Games are listed in rotation order.

Missouri spent the entire season losing close games on the road, falling in OT at UCLA and Kentucky, while dropping games by three points or less at Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament.  Larry Eustachy got the most he could out of Colorado State’s talent level this year, but the Rams, too, lost nearly every step-up game on the highway.

As a No. 3 seed, Marquette is only a 3.5-point favorite over No. 14 seed Davidson.  The betting markets clearly respect the Wildcats five upperclassmen starters that started 30 of their 33 previous games together this season.

Butler has won at least the first two games of every single postseason tournament they’ve played since 2010, including runs in the Horizon League and A-10 conference tourney’s, two runs to the championship Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: UNLV short favorites in rematch vs. California

03.18.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
California vs. UNLV -3

The Mountain West Conference is well represented in this year's NCAA Tournament with five teams making the field. Of those five teams, four are currently favored in their first round matchups including UNLV (-3) vs. California (at San Jose). The Rebels won in Berkeley earlier this season, 76-75, and 1.5-point underdogs.


“Any time when you have a game like that where it was very close, I think the advantage goes to the loser of the first matchup,” said LVH Superbook Executive Director Jay Kornegay. “I think Cal will be a little more motivated to beat UNLV than the other way around. UNLV is going to have to overcome that.”






Tags: College Basketball UNLV Running Rebels California Golden Bears




Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview

03.13.2013     04:08 PM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Big Ten Tournament Preview

Michigan State cut down the nets last year in Banker’s Life Fieldhouse as the winner of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans were the No. 1 seed which marked the fifth time in the last six years the top team won.  This year’s event moves to the United Center in Chicago and the bullseye will fall on the Indiana Hoosiers who won the regular season crown and earned the No. 1 seed after knocking off Michigan last Sunday.  However, this is as deep a tournament field as I can remember since the inaugural event in 1998.  For much of the regular season you could throw a blanket over Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and even Wisconsin.  Keep in mind in late December Minnesota and Illinois were respectively ranked 11th and 12th in the country and then play in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game tomorrow. 

First Round Pick/Darkhorse:  Iowa 
The Hawkeyes are a longshot to get to the Big Dance, but a rapidly improving basketball team, with a 20-11 record.  The Hawkeyes showed improvement down the stretch by winning six of their last eight games outright, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Erin Rynning




College Basketball Handicapping: Hybrid Power Ratings

03.13.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Updated these today. If you’re new to the blog….what you see below are a combination of:

*The team’s average margin in conference play ONLY

*Adjusted for conference strength based on Jeff Sagarin’s conference ratings (scroll way down)

Sagarin has the Big 10 as the best conference in the nation. So, I just used the normal margin averages for Big 10 teams. For the other teams:

Big East: margin average -1.5

Big 12: margin average -2.4

ACC: margin average -3.5

Mountain West: margin average -3.8

Pac 12: margin average -4.2

SEC: margin average -4.5

Atlantic 10: margin average -5.9

Missouri Valley: margin average -7.7

West Coast: margin average -9.2

Conference USA: margin average -10.3

Horizon: margin average -11.8

Metro-Atlantic: margin average -12.1

Colonial: margin average -13.5

Sun Belt: margin -15.1

Ohio Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




Atlantic-10 Tournament Betting Preview

03.12.2013     02:04 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlantic-10 Tournament Preview

The Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament has moved from Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, home of the Nets for the 2013 season.  This conference got four Big Dance bids last year (Xavier, who made a run all the way to the Sweet 16, along with Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Temple).  They should get four teams into the mix this year – Saint Louis, VCU, Temple and Butler – and a fifth team, LaSalle, is live to get an at large bid if it doesn’t earn an auto-bid from winning the tourney title.

Last year the top seeds didn’t bring much intensity to the A-10 tournament, knowing that their Big Dance bids were already secure.  No. 1 seed Temple lost in their first game, as did No. 2 Saint Louis, and No. 4 seed St Bonaventure won the title in an 11-point win over Xavier on Selection Sunday.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if we saw a similar no-show from some of the top seeds this year!

First Round Pick: Xavier
The bottom three teams in the standings – Rhode Island, Fordham and Duquesne – Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




PAC-12 Tournament Betting Preview

03.12.2013     01:27 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
PAC-12 Tournament Preview

The PAC-12 received only one at-large bid from the tournament selection committee last year.  That was at least partially the result of the numerous upsets in the PAC-12 tournament, where No. 6 seed Colorado beat No. 4 seed Arizona 53-51 in the Final. This year, UCLA, Oregon and Arizona are “locks” to make the Big Dance, and both Cal and Colorado are in good shape to get a bid as well.  As a result, the PAC-12’s first tournament here at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas isn’t as crucial for many of the top seeds as it was last year.

The PAC-12 lacks elite teams, but they don’t have any true bottom feeders in the conference either.  Arizona spent most of the season as the highest ranked PAC-12 team in the polls, but the Wildcats slumped down the stretch, losing four of their last eight games, including three out of four away from home.  UCLA enters the postseason near the bottom of the top 25.  Oregon spent a good portion of the season ranked, but the Ducks’ 5-6 SU mark down the stretch has left them in the “others receiving votes” category as Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




WAC Tournament Betting Preview

03.11.2013     03:36 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
WAC Tournament Preview

The WAC Tournament will be held at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which is the same site as the WCC Tournament. It’ll be a 10-team field thanks to the additions of Denver, Seattle, UT-Arlington, UT-San Antonio, and Texas State. No. 1 seed Louisiana Tech was the class of this conference from start to finish but were exposed somewhat on a couple of very tough home courts, New Mexico State and Denver, to close out the regular season. The top six teams all receive byes to the quarterfinals – Louisiana Tech, Denver, New Mexico State, UTA, Utah State and Idaho. There will be two first round matchups on Tuesday with No. 7 Texas State vs. No. 10 Seattle and No. 8 San Jose State vs. No. 9 UTSA. On Thursday the 7-10 winner will play No. 2 Denver and the 8-9 winner will play No. 1 Louisiana Tech. Note that the off day on Wednesday due to the women's tournament may give the two lower seeded winners a slight boost.

First Round Pick: UT-San Antonio
Texas-San Antonio beating San Jose State would be a minor upset only based on seed. The Spartans have been a disaster since mid-January Read more


Tags: College Basketball Ian Cameron




College Basketball Betting Recap: Indiana wins Big Ten, Middle Tennessee shocked again

03.11.2013     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers from the three most talked about results of the day…

Indiana 72, Michigan 71

2-Point Percentage: Indiana 43%, Michigan 40%

3-Point Shooting: Indiana 7/16, Michigan 10/22

Free Throws: Indiana 5/9, Michigan 7/13

1’s and 2’s: Indiana 51, Michigan 41

Rebounds: Indiana 47, Michigan 26

Turnovers: Indiana 14, Michigan 6

(Indiana 2-2 in Kenpom, Sagarin; Michigan 11-9)

Indiana got the best of it in most of the numbers…so karma rewarded their performance with some good fortune at the end. Michigan just missed a layup and a tip-in in the final seconds that would have won the game. But…

*Michigan had to shoot 45% on treys just to be in the game, which is not something that should be counted on.

*Michigan missed the front end of two late one-and-one’s when they could have been sealing a trey-based victory

*Michigan was killed on the Read more


Tags: College Basketball Indiana Hoosiers Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Stat Intelligence




Colonial Conference Tournament Betting Preview

03.08.2013     12:48 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colonial Conference Tournament Preview

What a year for the Colonial! Perennial heavyweight VCU bolted for the A-10. Old Dominion, who won back-to-back tournament titles in 2010 and 2011 and reached the semifinals last year, went 5-25 and fired its coach midseason. Preseason favorite George Mason finished fifth. Towson went from 1-31 to 18-13 but can't play in the postseason due to poor grades. UNC-Wilmington is also ineligible. Georgia State is leaving for the Sun Belt so wasn't invited. As a result of those three teams being out, Hofstra (7-23, 4-13) got in. And Northeastern won the regular season title despite being one of the luckiest teams on the planet for a month-long stretch. With the exception of George Mason (2008) and James Madison (1994), the remainder of the field has exactly zero Colonial Conference tournament titles.

First Round Pick: Delaware played a tough non-conference schedule, battling with the likes of Villanova, Duke, Temple, Pitt, Virginia, and Kansas State. They acquitted themselves fairly well in those games and opened conference play 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS. Unfortunately, it was the kiss of the death. The Blue Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange



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