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NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans

09.26.2013     02:30 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Seattle at Houston
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -3 (-120) O/U 45
CRIS Current: Seattle -2 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -2.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

The Houston Texans stock is beginning to slide after three very underwhelming performances to start the season. Current media and fan scrutiny make things sound a bit worse than what they actually are according to this week’s power ratings which show Houston just 1.5 points below their season opening number. The betting public’s expectations haven’t been met by hea coach Gary Kubiak’s team as they’ve gone 0-3 ATS and shredded a lot of tickets. Line movement this week indicates bettors haven’t given up on Houston as they’ve remained a +2/+2.5-point underdog fairly steadily the past three days. It makes sense to believe that at some point the Texans are going to play up to their talent level and Read more

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Houston Texans Rob Veno

College Football Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide

09.26.2013     12:37 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Mississippi at Alabama
Saturday, 3:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -13.5 O/U 56.5
CRIS Current: Alabama -14 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabam7a -17
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Over

Top ranked Alabama hosts Ole Miss this week in what could be another test for the Tide. Alabama has failed to cover in its last two wins and has yet to really play the dominant game that one might expect to see from the best team in the country. The problem is that they might not be the best team in the country, and there is no question that they are not as good as they were the last couple of years in which they won national titles. Don’t get me wrong, this team is good, and by the end of the year they might be celebrating a three-peat, but thus far, they have shown some holes in their game.

Bama beat Virginia Tech in its opener thanks to three return touchdowns, 35-10, but was actually Read more

Tags: College Football Ole Miss Rebels Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Brent Crow

College Football Handicapping: Week 5 Injury Report

09.26.2013     12:27 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Florida senior defensive tackle Dominique Easley was lost for the season when he tore his ACL at Tuesday’s practice on a non-contact play. Easley was en route to garnering first-team All-American honors and a spot early in the first round of the NFL Draft. His loss will certainly hurt but if there’s a bright side, UF’s defensive line has incredible depth. This injury comes on the heels of starting quarterback Jeff Driskel’s season-ender in the win over Tennessee. Driskel underwent successful surgery on his broken tibia Wednesday and will most likely be granted a medical redshirt. Tyler Murphy, a junior who was a two-star recruit and saw five different quarterbacks take snaps before him during his career, played well against the Vols. He will make his first career road start Saturday at Kentucky.

Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen, who has a 5/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, sat out last week’s 28-24 loss at Rutgers. As of Thursday morning, Allen remained ‘doubtful’ (bruised shoulder) for Saturday’s home date vs. Texas A&M. Due to his uncertain status, there still wasn’t a line available. A.J. Derby is expected Read more

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards

College Football Betting: SEC News and Notes - Week 4

09.26.2013     12:21 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
The SEC is taking some hits this year on the national football scene with some shaky performances on the field by some of its top teams. Florida and Tennessee got together last week for one of the ugliest offensive performances ever seen in SEC play. The two teams combined for nine turnovers and plenty of plays that went for negative yardage. The passing games were anemic, as four quarterbacks combined to complete 25-of-54 passes for 321 yards and five interceptions.

Florida emerged with the victory but lost starting quarterback Jeff Driskel for the season with a leg injury. To make matters worse for the Gators, they lost their best player this week during practice when defensive lineman Dominique Easley torn up his knee and he will miss the year. The loss of Easley will hurt the Gators more than the loss of Driskel, who had not been impressive thus far.

Alabama also struggled last week against Colorado State in Tuscaloosa before scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns to pull away with a 31-6 win. The Rams dominated the third quarter, but settled for two field goals on 127 total yards of offense while holding Bama to just 10 plays and 58 yards in the quarter. Bama Read more

Tags: College Football SEC Brent Crow

College Football Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs

09.26.2013     08:12 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Saturday, 9 am PT - FS1
CRIS Opener:
TCU -19.5 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: TCU -19 O/U 51.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: TCU -14.5
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: TCU

If Texas A&M wanted to, it could have hung 60+ on SMU last weekend. Instead, the Aggies backed off late and won 42-13. This week, I don't think TCU has the ability to score at that type of rate but the Horned Frogs could offset that by putting up more resistance defensively.

TCU is off to a 1-2 start and has lost the services of quarterback Casey Pachall. Trevone Boykin is no doubt a tick down from Pachall but at home, off a bye week, and against a defense that has allowed 315.7 ypg passing, I expect him to have one of his better games.

Ever since Week 1's dismal showing against Texas Tech at home – in what should have been SMU's Game of the Year – I've been looking to fade this team. You have three key Read more

Tags: College Football SMU Mustangs AAC TCU Horned Frogs Big XII Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils

09.26.2013     07:01 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
USC at Arizona State
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Arizona State -5 O/U 49.5
CRIS Current: Arizona State -5 O/U 50.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Arizona State -5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Arizona State

This PAC-12 showdown should come down to which team imposes their will and style on the other team. USC will rely on defense and slowing the pace of this game down greatly while Arizona State will look to make this a shootout and use its fast paced, up-tempo offense to wear down the very stout Trojans defense over the course of 60 minutes. I think in this case, Arizona State and their offense will win out and home field advantage will prove to be too much for USC as the Trojans play their first PAC-12 road game of the season.

The reason why I’m more willing to lay the points with ASU at home is because I simply don’t trust USC’s offense to score enough points Read more

Tags: College Football USC Trojans Arizona State Sun Devils PAC-12 Ian Cameron

NFL Handicapping Trends: Non-Conference Totals

09.25.2013     01:17 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
The natural order of game importance in the NFL is one of the first things any handicapper/bettor has to learn and subsequently apply. Divisional games are by far the most important to all teams followed by conference and then non-conference. That being known, the general theories are as follows: 1) division games will be hotly contested and potentially lower scoring because of team familiarity, 2) conference action will be intense but maybe not quite as intense as division rivalries and 3) non-conference tilts are the games where letdowns and lesser focus can enable abnormal scores to occur. Of course this knowledge is simply a starting point and nothing more than one of many ingredients to be considered in each individual game handicap. Because there are eight of them this week, I’m going to use this article to look at handicapping non-conference totals.

So far this season, there have been 13 non-conference games played and the record sits at 8-5 61.5% to the over. All 13 games have had final score differentials of at least 3.5 points from the closing total and 10 of the 13 (76.9%) have ended 11.5 points or more off of the closer. Those are 10 very easy wins Read more

Tags: NFL Rob Veno

College Football Betting Trends: BYU has history of bouncing back after Holy War

09.25.2013     11:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Middle Tennessee State at BYU -23 O/U 59.5

The Holy War between Utah and BYU is a pretty heated rivalry and last week's meeting was a hard fought slugfest with the Utes prevailing 20-13. The Cougars have a short turnaround this week with MTSU coming to town on Thursday. Historically, BYU hasn't had a problem coming out with a strong effort following the Holy War with a 9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS record. Last season after losing to Utah 24-21, BYU lost at home to Boise State 7-6 but covered the number (+5). Two years ago the Cougs beat Central Florida 24-17 as 2.5-point home chalk.

Tags: College Football BYU Cougars Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Sun Belt

NFL Gambling News: Buccaneers bench Freeman, give Glennon a shot

09.25.2013     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Arizona at Tampa Bay -3 O/U 40.5

After a 0-3 start, the Buccaneers are making a move at quarterback with Josh Freeman on the pine and Mike Glennon slated to start Sunday's game vs. Arizona. Similar to last week with Cleveland's switch from Brandon Weeden to Brian Hoyer, there doesn't seem to be a reason to downgrade the position despite Glennon making his first-ever start. The betting markets agree as the line for Sunday's game hasn't budged since the announcement.

"This league is about finding a franchise quarterback and with Josh's roller-coaster career, we don't feel he's that guy," a team source said.

Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arizone Cardinals

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/24/2013

09.24.2013     12:02 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think most of you reading this know the drill by now. What you see below is my estimate of how “the market” has college football teams rated at this point in the season. And, by “the market,” I mean the combination of oddsmakers and sharps (leaving out the often-misguided public as best as possible). These are based on the current pointspreads at writing time, allotting 3 points for home field advantage.

This isn’t how I personally rate the teams. It’s my estimate of “market Power Ratings” if they existed in a tangible form.

An early number came up in Las Vegas last week for a hypothetical matchup between Alabama and Oregon. That line was Alabama -3, which represents how oddsmakers would rate the game. What would sharps do once big limits were available on a game like that? My scale estimates that sharps would take Oregon. They seem to be betting Oregon hand over fist this year…and Alabama is struggling to play Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence


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