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October

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NCAA Championship Gambling Preview: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats

04.02.2012     07:03 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas vs. Kentucky -6 O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Kentucky


Last game of what has been an absolutely remarkable season. From a service perspective, I produced my third straight winning season with 59% winners and +33.65 units of profit on 185 documented plays. I thank all of the clients that got on board and look forward to continued winning success in the NBA, MLB, and beyond.

As for tonight's National Championship, I don't have a super-strong opinion but have made a personal wager on Kentucky. Most of you know that I prefer underdogs and when I do back a favorite, I don't lay more than a bucket it or two – my clients haven't received a recommendation on a favorite over -4 since way back in November. But this is a tricky price range and one that you have to ask yourself: Do you think Kentucky is going to win the game? I believe they will based on what I've seen the last two or three weeks. Obviously, Kansas is more than capable of covering the +6 as Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Andrew Lange




Final Four Betting Stats: Kentucky struggles ATS vs. better defenses

03.30.2012     08:49 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Taking a look at Kentucky's results against the top five defenses on its schedule. I used Ken Pom's defensive efficiency ratings. Louisville is currently the no. 1 team in the country at 0.84 points per possession allowed. Of the six games, the Wildcats went 6-0 SU but 2-4 ATS. Four of the six games went UNDER the total.

No. 1 Louisville (0.84 ppp allowed)
Result: Kentucky 69, Louisville (+10) 62; Under 136

No. 4 Kansas (0.86)
Result: Kentucky (-6.5) 75, Kansas 65; Under 147.5

No. 8 Alabama (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 77, Alabama (+10) 71; Over 130

No. 10 North Carolina (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 73, North Carolina (+6.5) 72; Under 156.5

No. 30 Vanderbilt (0.93)
Result: Kentucky (-4.5) 69, Vanderbilt 63; Under 135.5
Result: Kentucky 83, Vanderbilt (+11.5) 74; Over 138.5




Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Andrew Lange




NIT Betting Notes: Madison Square Garden has a way of holding offenses in check

03.27.2012     12:21 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Some notes regarding tonight’s two semifinal matchups in the NIT. Bettors who have been following these secondary tournaments have either been making money playing OVERS or living under a rock. But based on some of the historical results, I refrained from pulling the trigger on tonight’s two games. In fact, I made half-unit plays on the UNDER after some research. You’ll notice that like clockwork, both games were bet OVER the total just like every other NIT, CBI and CIT game. Here are some of the numbers I found…

The last 14 semifinal matchups at Madison Square Garden produced the following game scores: 123, 119, 131, 135 (OT), 138, 126, 150, 144, 125, 135, 141, 109, 142, and 128. That comes out to about 132 points per game. Only two of those contests went over 143 (Minnesota-Washington total) and one over 149 (UMass-Stanford total).

In terms of O/U numbers, I went back the last 10 semifinal matchups and got 3-7 O/U. But perhaps even more impressive than 70% UNDERS is the manner in which they cashed. The seven UNDERS were by margins of 22, 10.5, 15, 12, 18, 20.5 and 27! That is crazy and certainly not random. And the situations were Read more


Tags: College Basketball Washington Huskies Minnesota Golden Gophers Stanford Cardinal UMass Minutemen Andrew Lange




CBI Tournament Betting Pick: Washington State Cougars at Oregon State Beavers

03.21.2012     06:55 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington State at Oregon State -7 O/U 149
Recommendation: Over


Don't think for a minute that just because Washington State and Oregon State are meeting for a fourth time and are "familiar" with one another that we are all of a sudden going to see a defensive scrum. Check last night's Oregon-Washington game. Those two teams know each other pretty well and the game landed 176 – nearly 23 points over the closing total. Earlier this week, Oregon State hung 101 on TCU. The Horned Frogs were pretty poor on offense (41.9% FG, 26.7% 3-pt, 55.0% FT) yet still managed to get to 81 points. Washington State ran wild in its CBI opener; an 89-75 win at San Francisco. And I put little stock in their last game; a 61-41 win over slow paced and offensively deficient Wyoming. During the regular season, the Beavers and Cougars produced games scores of 157 and 156. During the conference tournament – which at the time was the most meaningful game Read more


Tags: College Basketball Washington State Cougars Oregon State Beavers Andrew Lange




NIT Betting Free Play: UMass Minutemen at Drexel Dragons

03.20.2012     08:03 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UMass at Drexel -6 O/U 141
Recommendation: Over


Something has to give with tonight's UMass-Drexel total which opened at 141. The Dragons' highest total this season came way back in November against Norfolk State (134.5) and that went UNDER by 17 points. The other was the 130.5 against Niagara which landed 129. In terms of actually producing over 141 points, Drexel (and opposing teams) accomplished the feat just four times this season. But when you take into account who the Dragons played this season, the results aren't surprising. The Colonial League features only two teams (George Mason and Delaware) that are active in pushing the pace. Beyond that, Drexel faced Rider and Niagara, two teams out of the MAAC that are fairly up-tempo. Obviously Drexel doesn't want to get into a track meet but I've watched UMass play enough to know that even the slowest of teams can't help but routinely find open looks early in the shot clock. The Minutemen are relentless and married to the concept of playing at an up-tempo pace regardless of the opponent. Also note that despite playing in a defensive-minded conference, Drexel led the league in offensive efficiency at Read more


Tags: College Basketball UMass Minutemen Drexel Dragons Andrew Lange




NIT Betting Free Pick: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Miami Hurricanes

03.19.2012     07:18 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota at Miami-FL
Recommendation: First half over 63.5


I expect a lot more intensity and effort from Miami after its lethargic performance against Valpo in the first round of the NIT. From watching the game, it was clear both teams had no interest in being there as Miami finally woke up in the second half with 42 points. Minnesota should do a better job at grabbing Miami's attention. The Golden Gophers played very inspired ball in their first round win over La Salle. They came out looking to push the pace, took a first half lead and slowed down the pace in the second half en route to a 70-61 win. With the exception of the win over Valpo, Miami has shown the ability to score and play at a faster pace in Coral Gables. In eight ACC home games, the Hurricanes scored 77, 78, 74, 64, 65, 69, 73 and 76 points. Both squads are solid defensively, but like a lot of these secondary tournaments, the first halves tend to play out loose as they feel one another out. Read more


Tags: College Basketball Minnesota Golden Gophers Miami (FL) Hurricanes Andrew Lange




CIT Free Betting Pick: Weber State Wildcats at Loyola Marymount Lions

03.18.2012     06:43 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Weber State at Loyola Marymount -3.5 O/U 144.5
Recommendation: Over


Outside Big Sky play, Weber State was repeatedly exposed on the defensive end of the floor. Against St. Mary's, BYU and Cal, the Wildcats surrendered 87, 94 and 77 points. They also struggled on the road, allowed nearly 73 ppg. The end result was a season long average of 105.7 points per possessions allowed which is very similar to that of Cal State Fullerton (108.2) – a team Loyola Marymount hung 88 on in the first round of the CIT. LMU played its fair share of moderately tempo games but showed a willingness to run against San Francisco and BYU – two teams very similar to Weber State. Certainly a game both side would like to win, but I once against don't expect much intensity on the defensive end which will get us over the 145 mark.



Tags: College Basketball Weber State Wildcats Loyola Marymount Lions Andrew Lange




NIT Betting Free Play: UMass Minutemen at Seton Hall Pirates

03.17.2012     06:48 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UMass +7 at Seton Hall O/U 151
Recommendation: UMass


Early start here in the NIT and a matchup that will be won by who brings the most intensity. Seton Hall didn't look very sharp in its first round win over Stony Brook, escaping with a 63-61 win. Now they face a squad in UMass that requires 40 minutes of concentration. If not, the Minutemen will run the Pirates out of the gym – similar to what they did for much of the time in their win at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs finally woke up but it was too late as UMass (+6.5) won outright in overtime. Look for UMass's relentless press and tempo to cause problems for a potentially lethargic home side in this 11 am local start.




Tags: College Basketball UMass Minutemen Seton Hall Pirates Andrew Lange




Sportsmemo Handicapper NCAA Tournament Picks

03.14.2012     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly
Some NCAA Tournament picks from the Sportsmemo Crew.

Sportsmemo Handicapper 2012 NCAA Tournament Picks
Handicapper
First Round Upset Alert
Final Four
Title Pick
Brent Crow
Colorado over UNLV
Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, North Carolina
Kentucky
Andrew Lange
Virginia over Florida
Kentucky, Marquette, Cincinnati, North Carolina
Kentucky
Teddy Covers
Belmont over Georgetown
Kentucky, Florida State, Kansas, Louisville
Kansas
Marty Otto
Virginia over Florida
Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Syracuse
Kentucky
Fairway Jay
Long Beach over New Mexico
Wichita, Michigan State, Ohio State, North Carolina
Ohio State
Erin Rynning
Long Beach over New Mexico
Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, Ohio State
Ohio State
Rob Veno
Montana over Wisconsin
Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio State, North Carolina
Missouri




Tags: College Basketball Brent Crow Andrew Lange Teddy Covers Otto Sports Erin Rynning Rob Veno




NCAA Tournament Gambling Preview: Montana Grizzlies vs. Wisconsin Badgers

03.13.2012     01:55 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament East Regional
No. 4 Wisconsin -9 vs. No. 13 Montana O/U 118.5
Thursday, 11:10 am PT - Albuquerque, N.M.
Rob Veno Power Rating: Wisconsin -7


Betting Take: Good matchup here as both teams play similar styles. Montana isn't as deliberate on offense as Wisconsin, but the Grizzlies prefer a slow place and play solid defense. They also have size with 7-0 center Derek Selvig patrolling the paint. But the Big Sky is notorious for not performing well when asked to step up in class, especially in the postseason. Montana did beat Long Beach at home but lost to San Francisco, Oregon State, Colorado State and Nevada. Wisconsin becomes an interesting handicap when laying this type of price outside of Madison. In a short-lined game, the Badgers are capable of beating most teams. But their style and propensity to sit on leads makes laying near double-digits tricky. Also tricky is putting the ball in the bucket for this team. They carved up Indiana's weak defense in the Big Ten Tournament for 79 points but turned right around with a 52-point effort against Michigan State. Montana isn’t in the Spartans' class Read more


Tags: College Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Montana Grizzlies



57

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