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College Basketball Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles

01.17.2012     06:08 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Maryland at Florida State
Recommendation: Maryland +6.5 1st half

Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State – despite what the Seminoles’ student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles – for at least parts of tonight's game – are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible – something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad Read more

Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins Florida State Seminoles Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting: Kentucky Wildcats struggle to cover pointspreads

01.16.2012     02:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Typically, the best teams in college basketball post against the spread records around the .500 mark. They obviously win a lot which is correlated with covering spreads but on the same token, the extra "tax" and attraction to bettors often keeps them from putting up great ATS numbers. Take last year from example. North Carolina (16-17 ATS), Duke (20-16 ATS), Kansas (18-17 ATS), Pittsburgh (15-14 ATS), Syracuse (15-18 ATS), Ohio State (18-16 ATS) and Kentucky (16-16 ATS) were all right around the .500 mark. There were some expectations, most notably UConn (23-12 ATS), but the Huskies came from way off the grid to go 10-1 ATS during the postseason.

But this year, something odd is taking place. Kentucky, which is considered to be one of the best teams in the country, is a horrific 3-13-1/4-12-1/4-13 ATS (depending on what numbers you go by). Based on one set of numbers I saw, the Wildcats haven't covered a game since November 19 – after starting the season 3-0 ATS. So why has Kentucky been such a poor spread team? No question, there is a tax tacked onto the Cats – but the same can be said about a lot teams. But unlike those teams, Kentucky is young, Read more

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange

NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: 71% of Missouri Valley games have gone OVER the total

01.16.2012     01:12 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Building on the blog we posted the other day about the increase in scoring in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. The MVC has long been known as a grind-it-out league that on occasion sees a team or two willing to play up-tempo. Below is a chart of the team-by-team yearly pace rankings according to Ken Pom. As you can see, from 2008-10, the MVC's average rank was between 233 and 241. This season however, we've seen that number climb to 173 as half the league ranks 143 or higher. I think we'll see the overall pace numbers dip once these teams play more conference games which brings us to our next point. Amazingly, 25 of the MVC's 35 league games have gone over the total thus far. The only two teams to not trend towards the OVER in league play are ironically the league's two top offense, Creighton and Wichita State. And only one team (Drake, 6-9 O/U) has trended UNDER from a season long perspective. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange

Saturday College Basketball Free Pick: Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers

01.14.2012     06:54 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Mississippi at Auburn +1 O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Auburn

We are getting to that point of the college basketball season where we can start utilizing spot plays to our advantage. I see one today in the SEC that I am particularly fond of. On Wednesday, Ole Miss was in an ideal situation – at home, needing a win, facing an opponent off a amazing performance. The Rebels took care of business by beating Arkansas 71-63 to move to 1-1 in SEC play. Now they go on the road and are likely to get a pretty good effort from their opponent. Auburn has lost three games in a row including two to conference foes Vanderbilt and Kentucky. I watched their game against Kentucky and came away impressed -- the Tigers actual led in the second half and were tied with about seven minutes to go before Kentucky finally flexed its muscle. Personnel wise, I see little to no difference between Ole Miss and Auburn and feel the spot is prime for a Tigers victory.

Tags: College Basketball Ole Miss Rebels Auburn Tigers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Pick: Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils

01.12.2012     01:33 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Virginia +11 at Duke O/U 128
Recommendation: Virginia

If you run through Duke's scores against good competition this year you don't see a lot of double-digit wins. They beat Belmont by 1, Michigan State by 5, Tennessee by 10, Michigan by 7, Kansas by 7, and Washington by 6. Also noted are losses to Ohio State and Temple and a 7-point road win over Georgia Tech last time out. The Blue Devils did beat Davidson by 13 in Durham back in November – a game the Wildcats led at halftime. Obviously some of those games were on the road/neutral but at no point have we seen the Blue Devils roll over a halfway competent opponent. And that is exactly what they'll face tonight in Virginia. The Cavaliers don't go about it in a very exiting manner but they bring the type of defense we like to have when backing a double-digit underdog. And in watching UVA play this season, the offense is much improved. It doesn't necessarily show with more than a few offensive outputs in the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Virginia Cavaliers Duke Blue Devils Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Play: Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers

01.11.2012     07:32 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Kentucky at Auburn +18 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Auburn

Even though Kentucky is a completely different team from a year ago, the make-up of the team is very similar – a load of talent and not a lot of experience. Going on the road with freshmen can be difficult on any team and Kentucky is no exception. Last season, the Wildcats went 2-6 SU on the highway in SEC play – a group that was two points from playing for the National Championship. Despite back-to-back horrendous road showings (29-point loss to Florida State and 30-point loss to Vanderbilt), I trust that Auburn is going to play much better at home against an opponent that won't be difficult to get up for. The Tigers weren't very good last season yet in SEC play, their home losses were by margins of 7, 5, 10, 13, 17 and 2. Over the past week we've seen both Georgia Tech (vs. Duke) and Illinois (vs. Ohio State) perform better than they have all season – at home vs. a top rated opponent. With Read more

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Auburn Tigers Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at NC State Wolfpack

01.08.2012     07:29 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Maryland +11 at NC State O/U 148.5
Recommendation: Maryland

I think when it is all said and done, the final season results of both Maryland and NC State won't be too dissimilar. The Wolfpack probably have a bit more talent but with the Terps adding a few pieces over the last few weeks, the difference isn't 11 points. Another part of my intrigue towards the underdog is that NC State cannot be trusted in the price range against comparable competition. I've watched this team multiple times this season and during the regular flow of the game, they look extremely good. But it all goes haywire when possessions start to mean something or they need a defensive stop. Maryland PG Pe'Shone Howard (broken foot) and center Alex Lin (eligibility) should be fairly settled in the rotation having played four and three games respectively. As a result, the Terps now have eight players who have averaged over 20 minutes per game of playing time. I don't think the betting markets Read more

Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins NC State Wolfpack Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Washington Huskies at Utah Utes

01.07.2012     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Washington -16 at Utah O/U 141.5
Recommendation: Under

Playing Washington under the total would seems like a crazy idea because the Huskies take quick shots and have had a difficult time buying into the concept of defense. But I think both those will be points of emphasis heading into tonight's game against Utah. Head coach Lorenzo Romar is getting a little impatient with his team's impatience on offense and is also asking for a little better defensive effort. Tonight's opponent Utah could provide the perfect storm. The Utes have somehow won three of their last five games by simply playing hard, milking the clock and hoping to stick around at the end. Last time out, they beat up-tempo Washington State 62-60 in overtime. That game had 62 possessions. The game before that was a 59 possession affair vs. Colorado and against Weber State, 60 possessions. Those aren't the type of teams that like to wait long on offense which means Utah is doing a good job at dictating Read more

Tags: College Basketball Washington Huskies Utah Utes Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Pick: Montana State Bobcats at Idaho State Bengals

01.05.2012     07:18 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Montana State at Idaho State -1.5 O/U 137
Recommendation: Under

The only way Idaho State is going to have success in the Big Sky this season is to shorten the game and play defense. The Bengals simply don't have the horses to trade scores on a nightly basis. Last time out, they went on the road and picked up a rare victory – a 57-55 win at Northern Colorado. The game featured only 53 possessions (and UNC likes to run typically). Montana State is off a rare performance as well as it hung 86 on Portland State. It was really the perfect storm for the Bobcats – weak opponent that doesn't play defense and likes to run. On the road, I don't think we'll see that type of outcome. The total in this series has never been higher that 135 (2-10 O/U) and in Pocatello, the game scores were 95, 133, 107, 113, and 125. Play it under.

Tags: College Basketball Montana State Bobcats Idaho State Bengals Andrew Lange

College Basketball Free Play: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys

01.04.2012     06:18 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Texas Tech +11.5 at Oklahoma State O/U 133.5
Recommendation: Texas Tech

I keep reading articles about how Oklahoma State's tough non-conference schedule is going to pay dividends down the road but I see it helping them grind out a close win on the road, not beating teams by double-digits. Since victories over bottom feeders Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Cowboys are 4-6 SU with two wins in overtime and the other two by three and five. You can certainly make and argument that all ten of those opponents are better than Texas Tech but Texas-San Antonio, Tulsa and SMU aren’t too far removed. The Red Raiders took their lumps early on and will continue to do so when asked to step up in class in the Big XII. You look at their resume and there isn't one win to get excited about. But I look at two factors: One, they have been in every game with the exception of a 16-point loss at Oral Roberts. Second, I'm a firm believer in Read more

Tags: College Basketball Texas Tech Red Raiders Oklahoma State Cowboys Andrew Lange


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