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October

21

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NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: South Florida Bulls vs. California Golden Bears

03.13.2012     12:51 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional
No. 12 South Florida vs. No. 12 California -3 O/U 115
Wednesday, 6 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: California -1.5


Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner taking on Temple. No question South Florida played a favorable Big East schedule but the Bulls still won 12 league games in one of the best conferences in the country while California didn't even win the PAC-12 regular season or the PAC-12 Tournament. The Golden Bears have the advantage on offense with multiple players who can score from all over the court. But South Florida has one of the best defenses in the tournament – even when accounting for the slow pace of its games. The Bulls ranked first in the Big East in effective field goal percentage defense (42.1%) and 2-point field goal percentage (42.2%). In comparison, Cal ranked 4th in both categories in the much weaker PAC-12. The total is certainly reflective of USF’s ability to control tempo. In Big East play, only once (a blowout vs. Georgetown) did a game involving the Bulls top 64 possessions.

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Tags: College Basketball South Florida Bulls California Golden Bears




College Basketball NIT Betting Trend

03.13.2012     12:16 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Often times we assume power conference teams that get "snubbed" from the NCAA Tournament and sent to the NIT don't really want to be there. But often times these "snubbed" teams are rewarded with home games and the turnaround from conference tournament to NIT is so short, there isn't much time to sit around and sulk. I went back the last five years and took the top 2 seeds from each NIT "pod" which ends up being eight teams total. Sort of arbitrary, but you figure past those eight are teams that didn't expect to be in the NCAA Tournament anyway or are mid-majors. For example, last year's no. 3 seeds were Dayton, Colorado State, Missouri State and Oklahoma State.

With those eight teams, I took a look at their first round games (almost all of which were at home with the exception of Boston College who was shipped to McNeese State last year) and then the overall results. Keep in mind, the overall numbers are skewed some as a lot of these teams eventually played one another. What I came up with was pretty surprising. From a straight up perspective, our top eight teams went 37-3 SU and a respectable 24-16 (60%) ATS in the first round and Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




NCAA Tournament Gambling Preview: Lamar Cardinals vs. Vermont Catamounts

03.12.2012     02:12 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional
Lamar -3 vs. Vermont O/U 130
Wednesday, 3:30 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: Lamar -2


Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner getting top seed North Carolina. Lamar made headlines a few weeks ago after head coach Pat Knight bashed his team for not knowing how to win. The Cardinals responded by winning six straight – all by double-digits – including the Southland Tournament. According to Ken Pom, Lamar is the most experienced team in the country with virtually the entire roster comprised of juniors and seniors. They faced a very tough non-conference slate: at Louisville, at Ohio State and at Kentucky. Vermont has now reached the postseason four straight years. They acquitted themselves well when asked to step up in class with close losses to tournament teams South Florida, Harvard and Iona. Should be a fairly competitive contest with Lamar ranked no. 102 and Vermont no. 120 based on Ken Pom's ratings.

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Tags: College Basketball Lamar Cardinals Vermont Catamounts




NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Iona Gaels at BYU Cougars

03.12.2012     12:45 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament West Regional
Iona vs. BYU -2 O/U 161.5
Tuesday, 6 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: BYU -1.5


Betting Take: Two teams that just slipped into the postseason square off in the 14th seed play-in game. The winner takes on no. 3 seed Marquette. Against St. Mary's, Loyola Marymount and Gonzaga, BYU went just 2-5 SU with two of those losses coming at the once vaunted Marriott Center. Defensively, the Cougs' numbers look decent but they had a lot difficulty defending pretty much any team with an above average offense. They'll certainly see that against Iona who during the preseason hung 90 and 89 on Purdue and Maryland respectively. Like BYU, the Gaels often win by outscoring the opposition. Note that against the top two defenses in the MAAC, Fairfield and Manhattan, Iona went 1-3 ATS. Also of note, Iona was 1-3 O/U in games lines 160 or above. BYU didn't play a game lined over 160 and was 4-6 O/U in games line 150 or above. A lot of things outside of just pace need to go right in order to top 161 points in a college basketball game.

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Tags: College Basketball Iona Gaels BYU Cougars




NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Mississippi Valley State vs. Western Kentucky

03.12.2012     12:21 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament South Regional
Mississippi Valley State vs. Western Kentucky -4.5 O/U 139
Tuesday, 3:30 pm PT - Dayton, Ohio
Rob Veno Power Rating: Western Kentucky -6


Betting Take: Play-in game with the winner taking on top seed Kentucky. The SWAC will be represented by the class of the league, Mississippi Valley State, who finished 17-1. Like most SWAC schools, the Delta Devils played a lot of "pay check road games" against power conference schools during the non-conference. They took their lumps but were competitive in losses to Iowa State, DePaul, and South Carolina. Western Kentucky fired its coach mid-season and at one point was 5-14 overall and 1-5 in Sun Belt play. The Hilltoppers managed to finish 7-9 in conference play and won four games in four days (by a total of 17 points) to claim the Sun Belt crown. Never know what to expect from these play-in games though they have been relatively low scoring the last few years with scores of 61-44, 58-43 and 69-60. Note however that Mississippi Valley averaged more than 70 possessions per game in conference action. The SWAC has one play-in game victory in five Read more


Tags: College Basketball Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils




College Basketball Betting Tips: Things to look for in second half wagers

03.07.2012     06:36 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

Wanted to point out this halftime box score (see below) of the Eastern Washington-Montana game. Everyone has their own philosophies for making halftime bets but I thought I'd share a few of my own as far as what I look for. For starters, I leaned Eastern Washington +10.5 as Montana's home court, while tough, is often inflated. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to watch the game – something I usually like to do when betting halftimes. But in this instance, I was very familiar with both sides and was able to track the contest using live stats.

copy_montana_halftime.JPG

In the first half, Montana obviously couldn't shoot straight while Eastern Washington was at 50%. This is already out of the norm as Montana defends and EWU typically does not. And this late in the season, you are what you are, especially on defense. So with five minutes to play, Eastern took an 11-point lead. It was a big moment because down 10 or more at half likely keeps me off of any 2nd half play with Montana. But the Grizzlies knocked down a shot, and a few more, and went into the break only down 5 – a nice swing in momentum which is always nice to have. But while the margin was more Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. St. Mary's Gaels

03.05.2012     01:18 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's
Recommendation: Over 61.5 1st half


I respect the defensive numbers Gonzaga has posted this year (0.93 points per possession vs. WCC) as well as St. Mary's lower-the-usual pace numbers over the past month (56-64 possessions in eight straight games) but were also dealing with the top two offenses in the conference and both are not shy about taking advantage of fast break opportunities. In the last 10 games in this series, only once did we see a halftime score fall below 63 points. And two of those contests where in this exact setting; the conference championship title game (39-34 and 38-25). This is the fourth straight year at this venue, the Orleans Arena, so both teams are obviously comfortable with the rims and backdrop. And both factors that often tell bettors there are tight rims – free throw and three-point shooting – have been fairly average with six games producing a combined 66% from the foul line and 38% from three-point land. This projects to be a close game so there is always the potential for it to turn into a grind late so let's take advantage of the low total and play over first half.




Tags: College Basketball Gonzaga Bulldogs St. Mary's Gaels Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Wyoming Cowboys at UNLV Rebels

03.03.2012     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wyoming at UNLV -10.5 O/U 127
Recommendation: Over


In the war against meaningless games, scoring often wins out and that is where we will look for tonight’s UNLV-Wyoming matchup. While UNLV may apply on-ball pressure, after a few extra passes this defense is very susceptible. Just look what took place at Colorado State – the Rams just wore UNLV down with 40 points in the second half. Wyoming isn't that type of team but they'll get more that their fair share of open looks. As for UNLV's offense, we can certainly expect bigger things (it's Senior Night!) than what we saw in Fort Collins with a season long average of 82.8 ppg at the Thomas & Mack Center. The first time these two teams met, Wyoming was for the most part able to control tempo with only 63 possessions but the game still got to 134 points. These two teams could very well face one another in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament which has Read more


Tags: College Basketball Wyoming Cowboys UNLV Rebels Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Morehead State Eagles vs. Tennessee State Tigers

03.02.2012     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Morehead State vs. Tennessee State -3.5 O/U 123
Recommendation: Tennessee State


I don't typically like to lay points with these college basketball conference tournaments but I see some value supporting Tennessee State as a small favorite over Morehead State. Morehead somewhat lucked out with its conference schedule this year playing only one game apiece against the top two teams in the league, Murray State and Tennessee State. In five games against teams that finished with above .500 league record, Morehead went 1-4 with the lone win coming over Tennessee Tech who was playing the second leg of the very difficult EKU/Morehead road trip. Just based on the eye test, Morehead has the look of a mediocre OVC squad but because of the scheduled stumbled into the third seed. Tennessee State meanwhile played Murray and Tennessee Tech twice as well as SEMO.  The Tigers have a lot of talent and should have decent fan support with the game being Read more


Tags: College Basketball Morehead State Eagles Tennessee State Tigers Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Portland Pilots vs. San Francisco Dons

03.01.2012     07:46 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Portland vs. San Francisco -9 O/U 148
Recommendation: San Francisco


San Francisco has done a good job taking care of the bottom-tier of the WCC this season. In games against Portland, Pepperdine, San Diego and Santa Clara, the Dons won by margins of 34, 1, 15, 13, 14, 16 and 11. The lone single-digit game was a one-point road win over Portland but San Fran was playing the second of back-to-back road games; off a hard fought loss at Gonzaga. Portland has been outclassed for much of the year. They've managed to catch a few teams napping but three of their four league wins came against Santa Clara who didn't win a conference game. After starting the year 0-4 in league play, San Fran finished 8-8 with competitive losses to Loyola Marymount, BYU and St. Mary's and a home win over Gonzaga. The Dons are the better team in this matchup across the board and should be able to handle Portland from the opening tip.




Tags: College Basketball Portland Pilots San Francisco Dons Andrew Lange



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