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MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.04.2013     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -120 at Milwaukee (Gallardo) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis

In 2011 and 2012, Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo struck out exactly a batter per inning – a mark of an above average MLB starter. This season, his numbers are way down with only 22 strikeouts in 36 innings. That is tied to the fact that his velocity is down. Gallardo is perhaps rounding into form with three straight quality starts but I'm not sure some of it didn't have to do with facing Pittsburgh, San Diego, and San Francisco. In his first three starts, he faced St. Louis, Arizona, and Colorado, three of the top offensive teams in the NL and they smacked him around for 12 runs in 16.1 IP. But the white elephant in this matchup is the fact that Gallardo has a horrific track record vs. St. Louis – something that I don't think is necessarily fluky as the Cardinals have always been a smart, well prepared organization. Some have suggested that they picked up on Gallardo tipping pitches but Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

05.02.2013     07:44 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Detroit (Porcello) -170 at Houston (Lyles) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Considering the lineup they are carting out there on a daily basis, it is amazing that the Houston Astros rank 7th in the American League in slugging pct. (.413) and 8th in OPS (.730). A lot of that is bolstered by the infamous 16-run explosion vs. Seattle back in early April but overall, the Astros are finding ways to put a decent amount of runs on the board. Detroit's Rick Porcello had a bounce back performance last time out against Atlanta (6.1 IP, 3 ERs) but I watched that start and he was a pitch or two away from imploding yet again. Porcello doesn't have a pitch he can put batters away with and as a result he pitches to a lot of contact (19.1 IP, 28 hits, 8 Ks).

The fact that Jordan Lyles started the season in the minors is a huge red flag. Especially when his competition was Philip Humber (7.58 ERA), Brad Peacock (9.41) and Erik Bedard (8.20). And while manager Bo Porter is Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Detroit Tigers Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Free Play: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

04.26.2013     07:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Colorado (Nicasio) at Arizona (McCarthy) -135 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Arizona's Brandon McCarthy has had a rough go of it in his return after getting hit in the head with a line drive late last season. In four starts McCarthy has allowed 36 hits and 17 earned runs while posting only 11 strikeouts. No question he's been a bit on the unlucky side (.391 BABIP, 7.06 ERA vs. 4.13 xFIP) but he simply hasn't shown the type of stuff that can consistently miss bats and/or get people out. Right now, I see McCarthy's ceiling as a 5- or 6-inning, 3 or 4 earned run type of pitcher. Unlike Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio has never come off as a guy who can have prolonged success at the MLB level. In 20.1 innings of work, the righty has allowed 12 runs, 12 walks, and only 12 strikeouts. And there is nothing fluky about his numbers with a .262 BABIP and nearly identical ERA (5.31) and xFIP (5.34). These two pitchers squared off last week in Coors Field with Arizona winning 5-4. There Read more

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamonbacks Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

04.23.2013     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Villanueva) at Cincinnati (Cingrani)
Recommendation: 5-inning UNDER 4

Eighteen games into the season and we've established more than a few things in regards to the Chicago Cubs. First, their starting pitching has actually been fairly strong with a team ERA of 3.10 and .208 BAA. Second, the offense is the opposite of strong with dismal splits of .230/.286/.680. Lastly, and this was on full display last night, the bullpen is horrific with a 4.86 ERA and five blown saves. Lump those things together and a play on the 5-inning UNDER makes sense. Carlos Villanueva is one of Chicago's starters who has fared well with a 1.29 ERA in three starts. Keep in mind Villanueva performed admirably during his two years in Toronto with a 4.11 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Cincinnati's Tony Cingrani has plenty of upside coming from the left side with a plus fastball. He threw well in his debut (5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks) and I see that success continuing as the teams face him for the first time. Obviously Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at New York Mets

04.21.2013     06:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Washington (Zimmermann) -140 at NY Mets (Gee) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Washington

Last season, New York's Dillon Gee featured an average fastball velocity right at 90 mph with a change-up around 83 mph. This year his fastball velocity is sitting right at 87-88 mph while his change is once again right around 83 mph. A 4-5 mph difference is simply not going to fool many MLB batters no matter how good your arm action is. Those issues are the exact reason why Gee's strikeouts are way down and his ERA is north of 8.00. When a guy gets pounded around early on in the year but the velocity is there, I try to give him the benefit of the doubt. But when your velocity is down as much as Gee's, it tells me either something is wrong mechanically or a trip to the DL is looming. I'm a big fan of Jordan Zimmermann. He doesn't post Strasburg's strikeout numbers but rarely issue walks and forces teams to put the ball in play to beat him. The price is certainly reflective of the starting mismatch but Read more

Tags: MLB Washington Nationals New York Mets Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros

04.20.2013     08:10 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cleveland (Kazmir) -105 at Houston (Humber) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Cleveland

I've watched enough of Philip Humber over the years to know that it's going to be extremely hard for him to have sustained success. When you are right-handed and your average fastball (which is down a tick or two from last season) hovers in the high 80's in becomes very difficult to turn over lineups in the American League. Humber also has a horrible track record vs. Cleveland (22.2 IP, 22 ERs, 8.74 ERA) in part because the Tribe has a ton of lefties and Humber has strong lefty/righty splits: 2013 - vs. L .387, vs. R .122; 2012 - vs. L .400, vs. R .238; 2011 - vs. L .266, vs. R .200. The Tribe hasn’t exactly been ripping the ball of late but this serves as a good opportunity to turn things around.

Cleveland's Scott Kazmir is getting one last chance to prove he can be a MLB pitcher. I've heard less than flattering stuff about Kazmir's off-the-field habits in the past but in reading about his Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Houston Astros Andrew Lange

NBA Playoff Betting Preview: No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 1 Miami Heat

04.19.2013     12:03 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Eastern Conference First Round
No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 1 Miami Heat

Series Schedule
Game 1 - Sun April 21, at Miami, 4 pm PT
Game 2 - Tue April 23, at Miami, 4:30 pm PT
Game 3 - Thu April 25, at Milwaukee, 4 pm PT
Game 4 - Sun April 28, at Milwaukee, 12:30 pm PT
Game 5 * Tue April 30, at Miami, TBD
Game 6 * Thu May 2, at Milwaukee, TBD
Game 7 * Sat May 4, at Miami, TBD

Series Price (CRIS)
Miami -20000, Milwaukee +7500

Season Records
Miami - 66-16 SU, 46-36 ATS, 42-39-1 O/U
Milwaukee - 38-44 SU, 37-45 ATS, 39-41-2 O/U

Season Series (Miami 3-1 SU, Split 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
4/9 - Miami (-6.5) 94 vs. Milwaukee 83 - Under 197.5
3/15 - Miami (-5.5) 107 at Milwaukee 94 - Under 202
12/29 - Milwaukee (+4.5) 104 vs. Miami 85 - Under 199.5
11/21 - Miami 113 vs. Milwaukee (+9.5) 106 OT - Over 202.5

Sportsmemo Handicapper Andrew Lange’s take:
I’m not going to try to scrounge up some convoluted theory on how Milwaukee can win this series. In Read more

Tags: NBA Miami Heat Milwaukee Bucks Andrew Lange

Sportsmemo Handicapper Andrew Lange gives the scoop on betting baseball

04.17.2013     01:05 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Someone on Twitter sent me a direct message asking how I go about handicapping baseball so I figured I'd share some of my methods here in the blog.

For starters, I try to keep things as simple as possible. Yes, that's a broad statement but there are a ton of factors when it comes to breaking down a baseball game and in my opinion if you try to include them all you inevitably end up with legitimate arguments for both sides – something that can be extremely frustrating. So I’m basically looking to isolate two or three things that I feel with have the biggest impact on the game – one of which is starting pitching which we’ll get to here in a bit.

In terms of price, I tend to stick with short favorites, underdogs, and totals. Value is value whether the price is -105 or -180 but it takes a while for oddsmakers and the betting markets to figure out a lot of these pitchers and teams. In some instances, there is no real mystery – Clayton Kershaw is pretty damn good, and the Houston Astros are awful. But for the first month of so of the season there are a lot of unknowns and as a result a lot of games are mispriced. I see pitchers and teams Read more

Tags: MLB Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves

04.16.2013     12:16 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Kansas City (Guthrie) +165 at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7
Recommendation: Kansas City

I may be in the minority but I think Atlanta's Kris Medlen is going to struggle at times this season. Last season's numbers were outrageous and while Medlen did pitch well, he was also fortunate – very fortunate in fact with a .261 BABIP and 85% left on base rate. He's back at it again this season with a 1.50 ERA through two starts but I thought he struggled some against the Phillies (5 IP, 4 BBs, 3 Ks, 2 ERs) and like a lot of starters was able to cruise past the woeful Marlins. I know the Braves are the hottest team in baseball but to see Medlen as high as -180 vs. an American League team and a viable arm in Jeremy Guthrie seems a little steep. It's early but I like that the Royals have shown a decent amount of plate discipline (5.5 Ks per game vs. 6.7 in 2012). They've hit an AL-low four home runs but the power production will eventually come – it's the offensive approach that will Read more

Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Kansas City Royals Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Minnesota Twins

04.13.2013     07:38 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
NY Mets (Harvey) -130 at Minnesota (Diamond) O/U 7
Recommendation: New York

So the word is out on New York's Matt Harvey being one of the premier young arms in the game. In two starts, the big right hander racked up 19 strikeouts and allowed only four hits. I wasn't big fan of the Mets extending him last time out – they were up 7-1 and Harvey was at 95 pitches prior to sending him out for the seventh inning. This is not the type of arm you want to mess with. But for the time being we have a premium arm that in a few more starts will be commanding a premium price. Minnesota sends Scott Diamond to the hill. He had off-season surgery and was brought along slowly during spring training. With cold weather and a pitch count I'm not expecting a top notch performance from Diamond. Also note that shadows have a big impact on early season mid-afternoon games at Target Field. It is expected to be partly cloudy but if the sun peaks in, hitting Harvey could be damn near impossible. Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange


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