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November

25

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MLB Gambling Notes: Numbers suggest Cleveland has been fortunate

05.16.2012     07:23 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On May 23 of last year, the Cleveland Indians had a seven game lead (30-15) in the American League Central but finished 15 games out. Most bettors knew some sort of decline was inevitable but perhaps not that dramatic. This year's start (20-16) is a little more realistic but a closer look shows that the Tribe may be once again overachieving.

The first thing that stands out is a -0.3 run differential. That equates to a pythWL of 17-19. Next is the schedule Cleveland has played. Of their 36 games, 27 came against team below .500 while only nine were against teams above .500. Those marks far and away "lead" the American League. Not surprising, the Indians have played the fewest games (7) of any AL team against the East Division. Note that they are 2-5 in those contests. Also of note is the fact that Cleveland is an amazing 8-1 in one-run games. Good teams often finish above .500 in one-run games but an 89% is a rate simply cannot be maintained.

Lastly, let's look at Cleveland's schedule the remainder of the season. The American League Central is pretty watered down at this point though Detroit and Kansas City have yet to play their best baseball. The Read more


Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange




Free MLB Betting Pick: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

05.16.2012     07:16 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati (Leake) at NY Mets (Santana)
Recommendation: New York -135 5-inning


It doesn't appear that Cincinnati's Mike Leake (7.11 ERA) is fooling anyone these days. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and it all takes place with velocity that hoovers around the high-80s. The only thing separating him from a batting practice pitcher is a decent curveball. He's potentially pitching for his job today and in a favorable ballpark but I still don't trust him. After missing all of 2011, Johan Santana has bounced back with strong numbers across the board. His velocity is down a tick but he's gotten 12 or more swinging strikes in five of seven starts which suggest his stuff is still effective. In the matchup of Leake vs. Santana, Santana has the edge and is worth a play on the 5-inning line at this price.



Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds New York Mets Andrew Lange




Free MLB Betting Pick: Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox

05.03.2012     12:48 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland (Masterson) at Chicago WS (Danks) -120 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Justin Masterson made a few adjustments prior to his last start and got better results in allowing only two runs in 8.1 innings – albeit against the soft hitting Angels. But his velocity remains down and his command is very erratic. In his last three outings, Masterson has walked 15 batters. This after walking less than two per start last season. Like Masterson, John Danks hasn't been "right" at all this season and a lack of command has been the main culprit. Danks walked only 46 batters last season and has already issued 15 in five starts including four in each of his last two outings. As a result, he's allowed three or more runs in every outing. These struggles were apparent from both pitchers in an early season meeting where the duo combined for seven earned runs, 15 hits, six walks and five strikeouts with neither pitcher lasting past the sixth inning. Unseasonably warm weather with gusty Read more


Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange




Deadspin tries to uncover truth behind bettor/columnist Sarah Phillips

05.01.2012     02:37 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We don't even know where to begin with this one but kudos to Deadspin for trying to tackle it. Some of you have probably heard of Sarah Phillips, a young 20-something female hardcore sports bettor (because there are a ton of them out there these days) who went from Covers.com posting forum member, to featured columnist, to snagging a gig with ESPN's Page 2 within the span of about a year. If you bet on a daily basis and read her stuff, it is obviously scripted in some manner. She'll go from sounding like a college chick who likes flavored vodka to an Andrew Lange-Brent Crow Sportsmemo Podcast conversation about a mid-week Sun Belt college basketball total – no one is THAT talented. Anyway, Phillips' online presence started to draw the attention of some folks and well, we'll let you soak in the rest...


A few days later, Phillips asked Matt for his advice on a Cardinals-Brewers game. The over/under for the game was 7.5 runs. Matt told her to take the Read more








Free MLB Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

05.01.2012     06:48 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Hamels) at Atlanta (Beachy) -125 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Under


Last season, Atlanta's offense struggled mightedly against left-handed pitching and those numbers are starting to show up again (.238 vs. LH starters) this season despite the fact that they have yet to face a premium southpaw arm. And when it comes to "premium" in the National League names like Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, and tonight's opponent, Cole Hamels, come to mind. Hamels is once again dialed in this season with a 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. For Atlanta, Brandon Beachy will look to maintain his stellar start to the season (1.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Obviously those numbers can't be maintained, but his talent is hardly a fluke after posting 169 strikeouts in 141.2 innings last season. He'll face a Philadelphia offense that has really struggled to produce runs. They've picked it up of late (4.71 runs per game last 7 games) but they certainly benefited from facing some weak starting pitchers (Josh Read more


Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves Andrew Lange




MLB Gambling Notes: Shaun Marcum's crazy BABIP baffles bettors

04.23.2012     10:22 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I almost spit up my coffee this morning when I read that SHAUN FREAKIN’ MARCUM is currently tops in all of baseball (starters) in swinging strikes at 15.4% (league average is 8.4%). All of you have seen Marcum pitch and while he throw strikes and doesn’t issue many walks, his stuff is more baffling than impressive. He swinging strike rate obviously won’t last but perhaps even more amazing has been Marcum’s ability to maintain below league average BABIP for such a long period of time.

Since 2007, Marcum has thrown 725.1 innings with a rock solid 3.67 ERA and 48-29 record. During that span, his yearly BABIP numbers are: .269, .246, .280, .264, .250...for an average of .266!

I went on Baseball Reference and looked up other starting pitchers who have had similar career paths and found that none of them are even close to being that fortunate. Yovano Gallardo's lifetime BABIP is .302, Jair Jurrjens' is .297 and Daisuke Matsuzaka's is .292. Marcum has had one "normal" season (only 78.1 IP) BABIP wise with a Read more


Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange




Sportsmemo's Crow and Lange win weekend bass tournament

04.16.2012     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
Sportsmemo handicappers Brent Crow and Andrew Lange took home the $1,000 first place prize at a bass tournament on Alabama's Smith Lake this past Saturday. When asked how it felt to win his first-ever tournament Lange responded, "I'll be honest, the fact that I didn't hook my partner in the back or fall in the lake was in my eyes a pretty big accomplishment."

copy_Crow_Lange.jpg

 



Tags: Brent Crow Andrew Lange




Sunday MLB Free Betting Pick: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

04.15.2012     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit (Porcello) at -Chicago- (Sale) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Chicago


I'm buying Chicago lefty Chris Sale, especially early in the season when fatigue isn't an issue and teams are getting their first extended look at him. Sale was one of the better middle relievers in the American League last season and is starting to develop some solid off-speed offerings. He looked sharp in his first start, allowing one earned run in 6.2 innings (and a modest 100 pitches). I enjoy watching Detroit's Rick Porcello but he's never going to be a front-of-the-rotation arm. He generally throws strikes and mixes things well, but without big time velocity or an outpitch, he has trouble going entire games without getting into trouble. The White Sox are obviously familiar with Porcello having seen him seven times (6.91 ERA). Let's also not forget that the White Sox are playing some good baseball having won four straight with a chance for the three-game sweep against the Tigers. I think it happens.




Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

04.12.2012     07:07 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami (Buehrle) -110 at Philadelphia (Blanton) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


Well aware that Philadelphia's offense can no longer be regarded as potent but with two hittable pitches and a total of 8 in Citizens Bank Park, we'll take a look at the OVER. Joe Blanton hasn't started a game since May of last season and is nothing but a stop-gap at this point in his career. He made one appearance out of the bullpen last Saturday and proceeded to take the loss after allowing two hits and a run in 0.2 innings. After a few decent years for Oakland and the Phillies, Blanton has been in steady decline. Since 2010, he's combined ERA is 4.88 with a 1.43 WHIP. Miami's Mark Buehrle was solid in his first National League start, allowing two earned runs in six innings in a loss at Cincinnati. The Phillies should be able to run out a fairly right-hand heavy lineup tonight. Umpire Jeff Nelson has trended towards the OVER at nearly a 60% clip the last three seasons. The wind is expected to be blowing in Read more


Tags: MLB Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies Andrew Lange




Sunday MLB Free Betting Pick: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

04.08.2012     07:33 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco (Cain) -125 at Arizona (Collmenter) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: San Francisco


I love the fact that baseball has changed so dramatically that mediocre pitchers can go out and have success. Six or seven years ago, a guy like Josh Collmenter would have never sniffed the mound and if he did, the results wouldn't have been pretty. But while the game is better suited for pitchers nowadays, I think Collmenter may be on borrowed time. His success stems from a funky delivery and throwing strikes. The velocity sits in the mid-80s and a lot of times, it is the batters that get themselves out by over-swinging. Opposing Collmenter will be Matt Cain who just inked a massive deal after three straight ultra-productive seasons. Cain allowed only nine home runs last season so look for a little bit of regression in that department. Still, he is obviously a much more viable option in this matchup and the betting markets certainly agree with money pouring in on the Giants. A number of Read more


Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Arizona Diamonbacks Andrew Lange



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