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NCAAF Handicapping: Kentucky Wildcats Over 6 Wins

07.29.2011     02:35 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Kentucky Wildcats
Recommendation: Over 6 wins

I’m a big fan of Kentucky head coach Joker Phillips and what he did in his first year as head coach after taking over for Rich Brooks. The level of talent and speed has risen over the last five years and the pieces are in place for this team to continue to compete in the SEC. Keep in mind that over the last three seasons, Kentucky has been forced to reload with 11, 10 and 11 returning starters respectively. In 2006 and 2007, with 15 returning starters back, the Wildcats posted 8-5 records. This season they welcome back 16.

The big question entering 2011 is how will Kentucky replace its skill position talent? Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb were special players who would start for any team in the SEC. And quarterback Mike Hartline quietly became one of the better signal callers in the conference last season. I see this year’s projected starter Morgan Newton as a wild card with potential. His transition to full-time starter should come Read more

Tags: College Football Kentucky Wildcats SEC Joker Phillips Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians

07.22.2011     07:48 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago (Floyd) at Cleveland (Carrasco) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Cleveland

Too much of a favorable matchup not to take a look at Cleveland and the cheap price tonight against Chicago. Carlos Carrasco has cooled off of late but a closer look shows his numbers were hurt by just two innings. Against Toronto and New York, he allowed two five-run innings, but beyond that, he's been extremely effective. The key for tonight is that Carrasco has done a fabulous job against righties (.211 BAA, .562 OPS) which bodes well with Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin producing nearly all of Chicago's offense this season. Gavin Floyd has been up and down and shows much weaker splits against lefties (.281 BAA, .767 OPS). Even with Sizemore and Choo out, the Indians can put as many as six lefties in their lineup. Despite a return to earth, Cleveland is still a solid 27-18 at home which makes tonight's pick 'em price worth a bet.

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

07.20.2011     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Milwaukee (Narveson) at Arizona (Saunders) -105 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Two hittable pitchers slated to start in Arizona tonight with Milwaukee's Chris Narveson taking on Joe Saunders. My focus is first on the Brewers who should field a very right-handed heavy lineup against Saunders. Saunders shows significant R vs. L (.284 BA/.841 OPS vs. righties) and home vs. road splits (4.89 ERA, .309 BAA at home). Last season, the Brewers pounded him for six earned runs in 5.2 innings in pitcher friendly Anaheim. Unlike Saunders, Narveson's seasonal numbers are more in line with who he really is as a pitcher. After a couple of strong outings in April, his ERA is 5.49 over his last 15 starts. I prefer a play on Milwaukee's team total over 4.5, but will also get involved in the game total over 9 with two below average bullpens.

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Chris Narveson Arizona Diamonbacks Joe Saunders Andrew Lange

NCAAF Betting Tips: The science of returning starters

07.19.2011     12:01 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

The raw number of returning starters can have a significant impact on the perception some bettors have on a particular team. For example, returning 15 or more starters is considered by most to be a “positive” whereas anything below 11 raises concerns about lack of experience. But like anything in the world of sports betting, raw numbers don’t often paint an accurate picture. In this particular case, we as bettors must first create our own criteria for what constitutes a legitimate returning starter and what doesn’t. For example, if a player was injured or redshirted but started the prior year, is he a returning starter? Depends on what publication you go by. If a player starts only four games but they were the final four games of the season, is he a returning starter? From a betting perspective, the answer to both questions is yes but it may not be reflected in what we see throughout preseason coverage.

Once we get beyond the actual number of returning starters the more pressing question then becomes Read more

Tags: College Football PAC-12 Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

07.06.2011     08:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cincinnati (Arroyo) at St. Louis (Westbrook) -123 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: St.Louis

There always seems to be something wrong with Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo – on Monday he claimed to have a mild case of vertigo. Regardless of pinpointing the exact reason for his struggles let's instead acknowledge that Arroyo can ill afford to not be 100 percent. Last time out, he was pelted for eight runs in 4.2 innings. The start before that he gave up four home runs. He's managed to sprinkle in a couple of decent starts but we're talking about a pitcher who is on pace to allow nearly 50 home runs. St. Louis gets a boost with Albert Pujols expected back in the lineup. The core of the Cardinals' lineup has had a lot of success against Arroyo with Pujols, Rasmus, Berkman, Holliday, Schumaker and Jay hitting a combined .311 with 28 of their 67 hits going for Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook Andrew Lange

NCAAF Handicapping: What does the hiring of Gary Crowton mean for Maryland?

07.05.2011     01:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
A lot of mixed feelings about Maryland's hiring of offensive coordinator Gary Crowton. Throughout his 25+ years as a football coach, Crowton has earned the reputation as being an "offensive genius". That however wasn't the case during his tenure in Baton Rouge as LSU's biggest deficiency since winning the 2007 BCS National Championship was lack of offense. But that brings us to an interesting point. Crowton’s first season at LSU was 2007 which saw the Tigers average 35.4 ppg in SEC play. In his first year in Eugene, the Ducks went 10-2 and averaged nearly 35 ppg. In his first season as head coach of BYU, the Cougars averaged a whooping 44.1 ppg and finished 12-2. So in the first year of Crowton's last three gigs, his offenses without question lived up to the hype.

The problem though was the dramatic declines after those initial seasons. BYU fell from 43.1 ppg in Mountain West play to 16.1 ppg. Oregon averaged nearly a touchdown less per game in PAC-10 play in his second season. And LSU dropped from second in Read more

Tags: College Football Maryland Terrapins Gary Crowton Andrew Lange

NCAAF Betting Tips: Toledo Rockets have what it takes to roll in 2011

06.30.2011     02:06 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Toledo Rockets
2010: 8-5 SU/7-5-1 ATS
Returning Starters: 9 off/9 def

Toledo has made an almost picture perfect progression over the last three seasons. In 2008, longtime head coach Tom Amstutz retired after three straight sub .500 seasons. Tim Beckman took over and got the team to 5-7 his first year. With just 12 returning starters in 2010, the Rockets made a big jump going 8-5 overall and 7-1 in MAC play. They also held their betting value for much of the campaign with a 7-5-1 ATS mark. There is some hype surround this year's team, especially with 18 returning starters, but the ingredients are till there for this team to be an “earner”.

Offensively, Toledo is going to put up big numbers not only because of who they have returning but also the defenses they'll face. The two top stop units in the league, Temple and Northern Illinois, return four and five starters respectively and feature first-year head coaches. No one team really stands out from the rest of the league which Read more

Tags: College Football Toledo Rockets Tim Beckman MAC Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles

06.30.2011     07:56 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Garcia) at Baltimore (Matusz)
Recommendation: Under 5 1st five innings

Jaime Garcia's numbers suggest he can't succeed on the road. I don't dispute that he's clearly better at home (1.74 ERA in 22 career starts) but he's more than capable of performing well on the highway. When I look at Garcia's game log, I notice that he's allowed more than three earned runs in the just one start this season – home or away. If you eliminate his blow up at Colorado, Garcia's numbers on the road are more than respectable (3.59 ERA). Baltimore's Brian Matusz has struggled since coming off the DL. Despite rumblings that he should be demoted, Buck Showalter said he'll continue to send the promising lefty to the hill. Matusz' velocity has dipped since last season but I noticed it was slightly up his last two outings (10 Ks in 10 IP). I'm going to be proactive here and call for a solid showing from Matusz tonight and key in on the under first five innings.

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Jaime Garcia Baltimore Orioles Brian Matusz Andrew Lange

NCAAF Betting Breakdown: Low expectations provide value for Minnesota

06.29.2011     07:34 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
2010: 3-9 SU/6-6 ATS
Returning Starters: 6 off/8 def

Following a three-win campaign and the firing of Tim Brewster, Minnesota is not expected to do much of anything under first-year head coach Jerry Kill. The Golden Gophers were underdogs in all eight Big Ten games last year – four of which +21 or more. The offense was mediocre and the defense couldn't stop anyone. There were however some positives, most notably outright wins over Iowa and Illinois to close out the year. Those wins obviously mean little to this year’s edition but it shows that Brewster was able to assemble halfway decent talent – a lot of which returns. The other thing to consider is despite being one of the worst BCS Conference schools in the country, Minnesota managed a 6-6 ATS record and more importantly 5-3 ATS in league play. And the beauty is those prices (+14.5, +21, +24, +25, etc.) are going to be the same if not more this year which puts Minnesota in the category of being a Read more

Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Jerry Kill Big Ten Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins

06.28.2011     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Los Angeles (Lilly) at Minnesota (Duensing)
Recommendation: Under 4 1st five innings

Looking to avoid two of the worst bullpens in baseball and play under the key number of four for tonight’s first five innings between the Dodgers and Twins. Minnesota’s Brian Duensing is a fringe arm but one who is capable of handling weak offenses in pitcher friendly ballparks. In his last two outings against San Francisco and San Diego, Duensing racked up back-to-back quality starts. Duensing's recent success was as a result of what he claimed to be an adjustment with is mechanics. After allowing 15 runs last night, expect him to step up for his team with another quality outing. Prior to his last two starts, Ted Lilly has been solid, averaging six innings and two earned runs per appearance dating back to early May. Off two dismal showings (10 IP, 11 ERs) he’s primed to handle a Minnesota offense that has once against hit this skids with eight runs in its last six games.

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Ted Lilly Minnesota Twins Brian Duensing Andrew Lange


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