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College Football Totals Betting: Applying what we saw in Week 1

09.04.2013     02:07 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
The four to six day handicapping bridge from college football's Week 1 to Week 2’s bets and recommendations has often been labeled the trickiest one of all. Throughout late spring and then the summer, extensive hours were put in by many on each side of the counter to formulate opinions on how the 126 FBS teams will fare this season and plays were made for last week’s games accordingly. Now, with a full week of data it’s time to assess the accuracy of initial projections and react to this week’s matchups. For myself, raw power ratings are adjusted Sunday morning and projected lines calculated anywhere from 3-8 hours before the openers become available. I’ve learned and constantly stated for the 21 years I’ve been in this business that each situation is individual and there is no blanket statement or theory that applies to how heavily you should react. Less can be best and more may be necessary while no reaction at all may be correct too. For this season’s opening article, let’s take a look at how to approach Week 2 from a totals perspective.

Last week we saw a couple of important elements that led to instances of huge second Read more

Tags: College Football USC Trojans Washington State Cougars PAC-12 Rob Veno

NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

09.04.2013     11:56 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Atlanta at New Orleans
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New Orleans -3 O/U 53
CRIS Current: New Orleans -3 (-120) O/U 54
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New Orleans -1.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: New Orleans

The Atlanta Falcons had a terrific 13-3 season last year and earned the #1 seed in the NFC but lost in the NFC Championship at home to the San Francisco 49ers. I don’t envision the same amount of success for the Falcons here in 2013. Atlanta had a very weak schedule that was littered with mediocre to bad teams. This year the slate is much tougher and right off the bat they draw a tough matchup against the rejuvenated and motivated New Orleans Saints.

Atlanta’s offensive line still looks weak. They struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright against better pass rushes and also had difficulties running the football at a productive level. They did acquire Stephen Jackson during the offseason but he is Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons New Orleans Saints Ian Cameron

College Football Handicapping: Early line moves for Week 2

09.04.2013     06:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Taking a quick look at some of the more significant lines moves for Week 2.

Wake Forest at Boston College
CRIS Opener: Boston College pk
CRIS Current: Boston College -3
Comment: Both teams won but failed to cover vs. FCS foes.

West Virginia at Oklahoma
CRIS Opener: Oklahoma -17.5
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -21
Comment:  Bettors obviously not impressed by WVU's 24-17 win over William & Mary. Oklahoma meanwhile shutout Sun Belt co-favorite UL-Monroe.

South Alabama at Tulane
CRIS Opener: Tulane -3.5
CRIS Current: Tulane -6.5
Comment: USA got beat at home against Samford – and it was hardly an upset as Samford closed -9.5. Tulane took care of Jackson State.

Texas at BYU
CRIS Opener: Texas -4.5
CRIS Current: Texas -7 (-7.5 at other sportsbooks)
Comment: BYU's top receiver Cody Hoffman remains questionable. Quarterback Taysom Hill was 13-of-40 in last week's loss to Virginia. Texas put up 715 yards and 56 points on New Mexico State.

UL-Lafayette at Kansas State
CRIS Opener: Kansas Read more

Tags: College Football

Sports Betting Podcast 9-3-2013 with Handicappers Brian Edwards and Ian Cameron

09.03.2013     10:17 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brian Edwards and Ian Cameron. Brian recapped Week 1 College Football (SEC, ACC, AAC) and Ian did the same (Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC).

Today's segments
Full Show

Brian Edwards - CFB Week 1 Recap: SEC, ACC, AAC

Ian Cameron - CFB Week 1 Recap: Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards Ian Cameron

College Football Betting Recap: Louisville, Colorado Score Sunday Statement Wins

09.02.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Sunday afternoon, the Louisville Cardinals made a very strong case for being a legitimate top 10 caliber team rather than a media invention with a rout of Ohio. Later Sunday, Colorado may have rejoined big time football with a victory over state rival Colorado State that was more one-sided than the score made it look.

Let’s run the numbers…

Louisville 49 (-21), Ohio 7

Total Yardage: Ohio 273, Louisville 615

Passing Stats: Ohio 15-31-1-192, Louisville 25-31-1-416

Yards-per-Play: Ohio 4.6, Louisville 8.7

Turnovers: Ohio 1, Louisville 1

Drive Points: Ohio 0, Louisville 42

Stat Score: Ohio 16, Louisville 36

If you watched the first few series, you knew it was going to be ugly. Louisville showed up ready to play. It was as if they were tired of hearing they didn’t belong in the Top 10. Skeptics believed the early poll nod was a result of a decent team playing an easy schedule rather Read more

Tags: College Football Colorado Buffaloes PAC-12 Louisville Cardinals AAC Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting Recap: Clemson, LSU Score Showcase Victories

09.01.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, back with numbers and notes from the two marquee prime time games in Saturday night college football. Let’s see what happened in Georgia/Clemson and LSU/TCU…

Clemson 38 (+1.5), Georgia 35

Total Yardage: Georgia 544, Clemson 467

Passing Stats: Georgia 20-29-1-323, Clemson 18-30-0-270

Yards-per-Play: Georgia 7.8, Clemson 6.1

Turnovers: Georgia 2, Clemson 1

Drive Points: Georgia 35, Clemson 24

Stat Score: Georgia 34, Clemson 30

Exhilarating first half, followed by more of a sluggish second half (42 combined points in the first half, jut 31 in the second). Georgia screwed up a chippy field goal attempt that ended up being the difference maker. You can see that Georgia had the better stats outside of turnovers. Turnovers are usually worth about four points in value. Apply that to the stat score and we get a dead heat. If Georgia doesn’t muck up that short field goal it’s a Read more

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC Clemson Tigers ACC Stat Intelligence

William Hill to run sportsbook at new Las Vegas casino

08.29.2013     12:27 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas' SLS Hotel and Casino, which is slated to open in fall of 2014, will feature a William Hill sportsbook. The SLS will be built on the site of the old Sahara Casino which closed in 2011.

“Together we’ll create a sports wagering experience that’s best in class for the market and takes the traditional sports book model to a whole new level,” Rob Oseland, president of SLS, said in a statement.

Tags: Las Vegas

College Football Gambling Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Virginia Tech Hokies

08.29.2013     12:00 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
Saturday, 2:30 pm PT - ESPN (Atlanta)
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -17.5 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Alabama -20.5 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -22.5
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Over

Alabama’s quest for a third consecutive national title and a fourth in five seasons begins Saturday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta when it takes on Virginia Tech. As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Crimson Tide installed as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5.
These programs met at this same venue for the 2009 season opener. On that night, Frank Beamer’s team led 24-23 going into the fourth quarter. Making his first career start, Greg McElroy led ‘Bama back into the lead and it eventually won by a 34-24 count as a 6.5-point chalk.

Alabama returns six starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that blasted Notre Dame Read more

Tags: College Football Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Virginia Tech Hokies Brian Edwards

College Football Betting: Florida International is probably going to be awful

08.28.2013     06:18 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Florida International at Maryland -22 O/U 49.5

You don't have to be a seasoned veteran to spot that Florida International is in for a world of hurt this season. The decision to remove Mario Cristobal and bring in Ron Turner has the potential to be on the Dan Hawkins-to-Colorado or Ellis Johnson-to-Southern Miss level. At 60 years old, with little to no track record of success at the college level (35-57 career record), Turner all of a sudden walks into a dicey situation where there is actually work to be done. The Panthers return only eight starters and are stepping up in class from the Sun Belt to C-USA. I'm obviously not the only one that has caught a whiff of this rotting corpse of a program. Last season, with 17 returning starters and off a program high 8-win season, FIU was catching +3 at Duke. This year, they Read more

Tags: College Football Florida International Panthers C-USA

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence


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