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College Football Betting Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils at Stanford Cardinal

09.20.2013     07:01 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Arizona State at Stanford
Saturday, 4 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Stanford -6.5 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Stanford -5.5 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Stanford -11
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over 1st Half

It was good for the Sun Devils to play Wisconsin last week since the Badgers are a near mirror image of Stanford offensively. ASU’s defense had to deal with the power style rushing attack of Wisconsin and the subsequent play-action passing that goes with it. The problem is, Arizona State didn’t fare all that well at stopping the Badgers who rolled to 441 total yards on 7.0 per play which included 232 rushing yards and 7.2 per carry. That’s a major problem as Todd Graham’s team leaves the cozy confines of Sun Devil Stadium for the first time this season to play at Stanford in their PAC-12 opener.

Another fundamental problem will likely be the Stanford defense which Read more

Tags: College Football Arizona State Sun Devils Stanford Cardinal PAC-12 Rob Veno

NFL Gambling Preview: Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins

09.19.2013     11:37 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Detroit at Washington
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Washington -2.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Washington -1.5 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Washington -4
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Over

The Washington Redskins have not gone over the total in their first two games by accident. The defense has been the catalyst for it as the Redskins were a sieve against Philadelphia and Green Bay giving up a whopping 71 points and 1,023 total yards. Washington’s porous stop unit has been victimized both on the ground and in the passing game showing hardly any ability to contain either one. I’m not sure they can stop the bleeding here against a capable Detroit Lions offense which shot itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties last week but were able to move the football effectively against Arizona particularly though the air. That should prove to be problematic for a Redskins secondary that was absolutely Read more

Tags: NFL Detroit Lions Washington Redskins Ian Cameron

College Football Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators

09.18.2013     10:23 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Tennessee at Florida
Saturday, 12:30 PT – CBS
CRIS Opener:
Florida -15.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Florida -16.5 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno’s Power Ranking: Florida -16.5
Brian Edwards’ Recommendation: Under

Florida will be seeking its ninth consecutive win over Tennessee when these bitter SEC East rivals square off Saturday at The Swamp in Gainesville.

Most books opened Florida (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) as a 14.5-point favorite Sunday night. However, by late Wednesday morning, most shops had the Gators favored by -17 with a total of 47.5. Gamblers can take the Volunteers on the money line for a +600 return (risk $100 to win $600).

Will Muschamp’s team has had two weeks to shake off a gut-wrenching 21-16 loss at Miami as a three-point road favorite. UF nearly doubled up the Hurricanes in total offense but went down nonetheless due to five turnovers, Read more

Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers Florida Gators SEC Brian Edwards

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/18/13

09.18.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Feel much better about how these numbers have honed in on the market. Many of last week’s numbers were very close to nailing this week’s openers (or first line moves off an opener). When they didn’t, it was due to a common-sense adjustment from a Saturday result, or an injury to a quarterback. Think we’re mostly there. Not all the way there, particularly in the bottom third where there seems to be more volatility (and less raw confidence from all involved)

If this is your first visit to the site…I’m trying to estimate college football “Power Ratings” as represented by the lines posted in the betting markets. These aren’t my personal opinions of teams. This is my estimate of how “the market” as a composite must be rating the teams based on the lines we’re seeing now and have been seeing recently. I start by creating couplets based on the line for each game, using 3 points of value for home field advantage. Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 2

09.17.2013     02:46 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
A “Total” Stalemate
Unders and Overs split right down the middle in Week 1 going 8-8 and it was more of the same in Week 2 with another 8-8 record. That 16 Overs and 16 Unders through the first two weeks of the season – give or take a few due depending on what sportsbook you play at. Those results suggest that oddsmakers are starting to catch up to how much the league has changed and how favorable everything is for offenses. Three games saw more than 60 points scored in Week 2 but on the flip side, there were also three games with fewer than 30 points scored. My best advice with totals is to disregard a lot of the trends floating around in the betting community – especially those that go back three or more years. The game has evolved and each one deserves its very own handicap with pace and situation two of many factors to consider.

Proof that Rookie Starting Quarterbacks Can Be Perfect
Raise your hand if you thought that E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith would be a combined 4-0 ATS through the first two weeks of the season. Manuel and Smith have had their flickers of solid play but neither has been consistent Read more

Tags: NFL Ian Cameron

College Football Betting Podcast 9-17-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno and Ian Cameron

09.17.2013     10:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno and Ian Cameron. Brian recapped Week 3 College Football (SEC, Big XII, ACC, AAC) and Ian did the same (Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC).

Today's segments
Full Show

Rob Veno - CFB Week 3 Recap: SEC, Big XII, ACC, AAC

Ian Cameron - CFB Week 3 Recap: Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Rob Veno Ian Cameron

SPECIAL OFFER: Rob Veno adds to MONSTER 2013 with 5-0 100% NFL Sunday

09.16.2013     10:18 AM     Printer Friendly
Lock in Rob's entire week of All Sports coverage right here.



NFL Handicpaping: Week 2 Betting and Statistical Recap

09.16.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

San Diego 33 (+7.5), Philadelphia 30

S-Diego: 539 yards, 6.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 67% third downs

Philadel: 511 yards, 8.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 45% third downs

(Whoever had the ball last was going to win, because both offenses were getting enough YPP at will to move the ball into scoring position. First glaring sign of Philly’s defensive weaknesses this Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 3

09.16.2013     06:33 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
I'm well aware that Nebraska doesn't have the defensive players it had a few years back AND that the offense is playing at a faster clip hence more plays/opportunities for the opposition. However over the last two years we've seen the Cornhuskers fail repeatedly when asked to face competent offenses and what’s baffling to me is the lack of any sort of adjustment.

2012 Week 2 - UCLA racked up 653 yards on nearly 6.95 ypp.

2012 Week 6 - Ohio State popped for 63 on the Huskers at over 8 ypp.

2012 Big Ten Championship - Wisconsin hung 70 and nearly 11 ypp!

2012 Bowl Game - Georgia fell just shy of 600 yards at 8.3 ypp.

2013 Week 1 - Wyoming rolled into Lincoln and put up 602 yards (8.1 ypp) and nearly won outright as 31-point dogs.

These days playing defense against top-notch offenses isn't easy. But there are tons of teams with far less talent that are finding ways to get the occasional three-and-out.

One of my biggest bets of Week 3 was on Washington -4 second half vs. Illinois. The Huskies absolutely dominated the first half box score, kicked a FG right before half, and received the ball to start the second. It Read more

Tags: College Football Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

09.15.2013     08:04 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Miami at Indianapolis
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Indianapolis pk O/U 43
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -2.5 O/U 43.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Indianapolis -2
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Indianapolis

The Dolphins were able to coast to a 23-10 win last week in Cleveland against the Browns.  However, they failed to overwhelm and were actually outgained by the Brown by 16 yards.  Their rushing attack was a grave concern with just 20 yards on 23 carries. Second year quarterback Ryan Tannehill is yet to prove he can play at a high level in the NFL.  It doesn’t help that he lacks weapons as well, and the tight end injury to Dustin Keller will prove difficult to overcome.  One could argue that free agent addition wide receiver Mike Wallace will be that true difference maker, but I feel strongly he’ll disappoint.  No question, the defense for the Dolphins will carry this team Read more

Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Indianapolis Colts Erin Rynning


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