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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins

06.03.2013     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.”  I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.

I closed out the article with these two paragraphs: “The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played.  The Saints weren’t far behind.  Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.

“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league.  Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates.  In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Betting: Underreported Story...Tampa Bay Rays an Offensive Juggernaut!

06.03.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

For quite a few years now, the Tampa Bay Rays have been stereotyped as a small market team that has to manufacture little advantages at the edges to compete in the tough AL East. There was a Moneyball type book written about them. The manager is considered by some to be a tactical wizard. The team found hard throwing young pitchers to shut down opponents. They’d try to invent enough runs to outscore what those solid pitchers were allowing.

Because images are hard to shake, particularly images that have been accurate for a few years…changes in form often go unnoticed or underreported when they happen. That’s the case right now with the Tampa Bay Rays…who have become an offensive JUGGERNAUT over the past month and a half.

Most of this year’s coverage in the blog has concerned 5-inning results. I’m going to focus on full 9-inning numbers today because they tell the story so well…and because most of you reading this are still seeing the Read more



Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers take down Miami Heat, force Game 7

06.02.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I said I wouldn’t get too wound up in a Miami Heat playoff series until they faced an elimination game. They’d shown a tendency to pace themselves all year. We learned last year that they're not necessarily vulnerable when they’re looking vulnerable.

NOW, they’re vulnerable!

They still have some margin for error because of home court advantage. And, it’s tough to expect that Dwyane Wade…and Chris Bosh…and Ray Allen will all be as worthless Monday night as they were this evening. LeBron James is very likely to get some help. If he doesn’t, then it will be the Pacers who advance to face the San Antonio Spurs. It’s a team game. LeBron and a bunch of half-hearted, shot missing, non-rebounders isn’t much of a team.

Reasons for hope for Indiana:

*The grueling pace of this series…every other day of intense physicality…may be having a much bigger impact on Bosh, Wade, and Allen than Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: This Time, Miami Rebounds (literally)

05.31.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Miami Heat said they’d make it a point of emphasis to prevent the Indiana Heat from owning the battle of the boards in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. They certainly did that, particularly when it came to Indiana’s penchant for offensive rebounds.

Offensive Boards

Game Four: Indiana 15, Miami 12 (Total—Indiana 49, Miami 30)

Game Five: Indiana 6, Miami 6 (Total---Indiana 33, Miami 32)

Denied second chance points (and the potential for foul calls on second chance attempts), Indiana’s scoring dropped 20 from the 99 they posted back in Game Four. Miami doesn’t have to win this stat to win the series. They just have to neutralize Indiana’s advantage. The Pacers have little chance to fully compete if they‘re NOT winning rebounding.

That can also be expressed in our “Imposing of Will” stat that showed such dominance for the Pacers in the last game. Let’s update the Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Notes: Brewers and Twins pile up bullpen innings

05.29.2013     01:48 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee (Estrada) -115 at Minnesota (Deduno) O/U 8.5

Bettors should be aware of the bullpen situation for both Milwaukee and Minnesota heading into tonight's contest. Simply put, they've both been work pretty hard of late. Twins' starter Samuel Deduno doesn't have much of a pedigree for being able to go deep into games. Marco Estrada is a little more trustable but supporting a 19-30 National League team as a road favorite vs. the American League doesn't appear to provide us with much value.

Minnesota - Thursday
Roenicke 0.2
Duensing 0.1
Burton 1.0
Perkins 1.0

Minnesota - Friday
Fien 1.1
Roenicke 1.0
Burton 1.0
Perkins 1.0
Swarzak 2.0
Pressly 2.0
Duensing 1.0

Milwaukee - Sunday
Hand 2.0
Gonzalez 1.0
Kintzler 1.0
Rodriguez 1.0

Milwaukee - Monday
Gorzelanny 1.1
Gonzalez 0.2
Badenhop 0.2
Axford Read more



Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Milwaukee Brewers




NBA Betting Recap: Now THIS is the Championship Version of Miami (Plus MLB Interleague Notes)

05.27.2013     08:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Heat have a gear that nobody else has. They waited until Indy 500 day in Indianapolis to remind everyone of that as they raced…then coasted to a 114-96 victory to regain home court advantage with a 2-1 series lead.

The final stats don’t quite tell the story…because Miami spent most of the last nine minutes running out the clock. Let’s start with the full game boxscore…then we’ll backtrack a bit to show you what Miami was doing while sending their message.

Miami 114, Indiana 96

2-Point Percentage: Miami 57%, Indiana 36%

3-Point Shooting: Miami 6/14, Indiana 8/14

Free Throws: Miami 24/28, Indiana 30/44

1’s and 2’s: Miami 96, Indiana 72

Rebounds: Miami 36, Indiana 45

Turnovers: Miami 5, Indiana 10

Impressive enough. Indiana called a time out with 9:34 to go in the game, down 21 points at 99-78. I made a note to write down (and tweet @jefffogle) Read more



Tags: NBA MLB Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs take commanding 3-0 series lead

05.26.2013     08:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Last night we talked about how Game Two of Indiana/Miami looked so much like Game One. Tonight, we get to do the same thing in the Western Conference finals…as Game Three in Memphis looked very much like Game Two in San Antonio.

*Home Team jumps out to big lead

*Visitor rallies

*Game goes to overtime at 85-all in G2, and 86-all in G3

*Spurs know what to do in overtime

What jumped out to me watching tonight was how Memphis WASN’T Indiana. You just didn’t see the same fire in their eyes…the same sense of urgency, even though the Grizzlies were already playing with their backs to the wall tonight while Indiana was just trying to break serve. Also, Indiana made its free throws last night, while Memphis gagged way too many with their season on the line this evening.

San Antonio 104, Memphis 93 (in overtime)

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 55%, Memphis 40%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies




MLB Gambling: Highly touted Baltimore rookie Gausman makes debut vs. Toronto

05.23.2013     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore (Gausman) at Toronto (Morrow) -130 O/U 9

The Baltimore Orioles don't have a great track record when it comes to developing their top arms. Brian Matusz (1st round), Chris Tillman (2nd round), Jake Arrieta (5th round), and Zach Britton (3rd round) have all failed to live up to expectations. Tonight marks yet another highly anticipated debut with 2012 first round pick Kevin Gausman set to take the hill tonight in Toronto. Gausman fits the profile of someone who should succeed at the MLB level – 6-3, 190, throws hard, three pitches, rolled through each minor league stop, amazing stats (61.1 IP, 62 Ks, 6 BBs). And while it is probably unfair to lump him in with the aforementioned list of underachievers, we still have some concerns about whether or not Baltimore can keep this kid healthy and help him Read more



Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays




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05.20.2013     10:26 AM     Printer Friendly
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MLB Gambling News: A Unique Look at Offenses

05.20.2013     10:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As you probably know, I’ve been playing around with 5-inning options in Major League Baseball this year. Part of the fun of that is doing record-keeping that you know nobody else is doing. Helps you see things from different perspectives.

I’ve been logging all the results by hand because there aren’t any websites I know of that go in-depth with this stuff. That’s GREAT, because it’s easier to gain and maintain an edge over the market when information isn’t widely available. Don’t think I’ll be giving away anything to vital in this post…though creative readers may find a way to use the data.

Here’s the percentage of time that each offense has reached at least two runs in the first five innings this year, through the games of Sunday afternoon…

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit 76%

Baltimore 73%

LA Angels 68%

Boston 68%

Tampa Bay 67%

Cleveland Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence



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