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NCAAF Betting Tips: Low profile, high profits for Louisville Cardinals
06.29.2011 12:17 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Louisville Cardinals
2010: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Returning Starters: 3 off/6 def
The best profit producing teams in college football do not necessarily correlate with the teams that finish at the top of the standings. Look no further than last year’s results for a handful of prime example. The top ten ATS squads for the full season included Hawaii, Arkansas, North Carolina State, Arizona State and Northern Illinois. None of those teams won their respective conferences, yet all five squads exceeded market expectations by a wide margin. Other teams that cashed at least two thirds of their tickets in 2010 included San Diego State, Utah, Tulsa, Maryland and Illinois. Those squads had very similar profiles to the very best ATS teams – good seasons, but not headline inducing, conference winning campaigns.
So my thought process for selecting an NCAA “earner” for the upcoming season has me concentrating on teams poised to make a positive jump
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Tags:
College Football
Lousville Cardinals
Charlie Strong
Big East
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting Free Play: Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox
06.24.2011 11:54 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Washington (Zimmermann) +105 at Chicago (Jackson) O/U 8
Recommendation: Washington
The Washington Nationals are still the hottest team in baseball, even without Jim Riggleman in the dugout. Despite Riggleman’s shocking resignation yesterday, the Nats are poised to win for the 12th time in 13 games as they travel to Chicago tonight. Outfielder Jason Werth, talking about Riggleman’s departure: “It’s not going to change anything in here. We’re the ones that have been winning the ballgames, so we’re going to keep going.”
The Nats have an excellent chance to continue their winning ways tonight with Jordan Zimmermann on the hill. Zimmermann is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his last four starts. He’s thrown nine consecutive quality starts, showing that he’s fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that threatened to derail his career two years ago. The Nationals are 6-3 in those last nine starts, and two of the losses came by identical 2-1 scores
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Tags:
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Washington Nationals
Jordan Zimmermann
Chicago White Sox
Edwin Jackson
Teddy Covers
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College Football Handicapper roundtable discussion
06.22.2011 02:10 PM
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Today in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum we featured a College Football roundtable discussion on the upcoming 2011 season. The focus was on "earners" (teams with the potential for ATS success) and "burners" (teams destine for ATS failure). The chat included analysis from the Sportsmemo Handicappers as well as our posting forum faithful.
Here's a quick list of "earners" and "burners" from the Sportsmemo Crew:
Teddy Covers
Stanford - Burner
Arizona State - Earner
Colorado State - Earner
Marty Otto
Wisconsin - Burner
SMU - Earner
Rob Veno
Virginia - Earner
Nevada - Burner
Purdue - Earner
Andrew Lange
Oklahoma State - Burner
Minnesota - Earner
Here's a link to the thread
. We'll be conducting these forum
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College Football
Teddy Covers
Andrew Lange
Rob Veno
Marty Otto
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers
06.21.2011 10:23 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Detroit (Scherzer) -115 at Los Angeles (Billingsley) O/U 7
Recommendation: Detroit
My clients and I have already cashed a pair of tickets betting Chad Billingsley over the total this month. Tonight, the preferred way to bet against Billingsley is to focus on a side wager.
Billingsley is struggling mightily these days, with only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill. He hasn’t recorded a single out in the sixth inning in any of his last three starts, with a 2.78 WHIP and an ERA over 11.00 during that span. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down. Billingsley has allowed 10 or more hits only four times in 145 career starts. Two of those times have come in the last month. The Dodgers are just 3-6 in his last nine trips to the hill. Facing a Tigers lineup that was red hot before getting shut down by Clayton Kershaw last night, expect continued struggles from Billingsley.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are winning consistently
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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Max Scherzer
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chad Billingsley
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers reports on Golden Nugget NCAAF openers Part II
06.14.2011 11:31 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Popular “bet on” teams at the Golden Nugget when the first college football lines of the season were posted this past Friday included Tennessee, Georgia, Notre Dame, Northwestern and LSU. All five of those schools took multiple bets in more than one game, driving the line in their direction.
Popular “bet against” teams included Auburn, Michigan, TCU, Mississippi State and Florida. All five of those schools were fade material; either shorter favorites or bigger underdogs now than they were at the opener.
Here’s a brief synopsis of those 10 teams, in an effort to explain the betting attention they received:
Tennessee
came on strong down the stretch last year winning its last four regular season games to earn a bowl bid in a season that could have been a complete disaster. After last year’s growing pains, the Vols finally have the same head coach returning for the first time in four years. Early bettors respect that continuity and were willing to
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College Football
Teddy Covers
Auburn Tigers
Michigan Wolverines
TCU Horned Frogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Florida Gators
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Northwestern Wildcats
Georgia Bulldogs
Tennessee Volunteers
Golden Nugget
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Teddy Covers reports on Golden Nugget College Football openers
06.13.2011 11:36 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
In 2010, when the Golden Nugget opened up betting on their 200 college football “Games of the Year”, there were long lines for several hours as bettors jockeyed with one another to take their crack at college football’s very first pointspreads. With a $1000 maximum bet and a three bet per customer limit, wise guys spent a good portion of the afternoon making repeated trips to the betting window.
Golden Nugget sportsbook director Tony Miller: “Last year, we had lines out the door… it was a frenzy.” The Nugget wrote close to $130,000 on the first day they posted their lines.
When the Nugget posted their advanced college football lines this past Friday, the action was somewhat subdued compared to last year – shorter lines and less frenzy. Some of the lesser handle was a result of competition. Cantor Gaming opened their NFL lines for every single regular season game at the M Casino on the same day; another highly attractive wise guy
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Golden Nugget
Teddy Covers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
06.08.2011 09:53 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Arizona (Duke) at Pittsburgh (Maholm) -115 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
The surprising Pirates lineup is absolutely torching opposing pitchers right now. Pittsburgh is 5-1 to the over in its last six ball games largely thanks to an offense that has pounded out 36 runs. The Pirates have been beating southpaws during this stretch, with wins over Chris Capuano, Cole Hamels and Doug Davis in recent contests.
That’s bad news for Zack Duke, returning to Pittsburgh for the first time since his six-year stint with the organization ended this past offseason. Duke has pitched reasonably well at PNC Park in his career, but this Pirates lineup is poised to take advantage of the soft tosser tonight. Washington roughed Duke up for 10 hits and four runs in just five innings of work in his last outing, and we can expect continued struggles today. Arizona’s bullpen behind Duke got lit up last night and has shown dramatic signs of cracking in recent games after an extended run of excellence.
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MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Zach Duke
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Maholm
Teddy Covers
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MLB Betting Game Preview: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
06.07.2011 11:53 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Chicago (Davis) at Cincinnati (Volquez) -165 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over
It’s not hard to bet against Doug Davis these days. The 35-year old southpaw had surgery to repair both nerve and tendon damage in his left elbow this past offseason. Davis wasn’t even signed to a minor league contract until the Cubs lost a pair of starters to the DL in April. He allowed 36 runs in 38.1 innings of work with the Brewers last year. In four starts this season, he’s allowed 17 runs in just 19.2 innings of work with only one quality start to show for his efforts.
Facing a Reds lineup that is simply hammering lefties this year – their .857 OPS against southpaws ranks first in all of baseball – we can expect Davis’s struggles to continue. Mike Quade’s bullpen behind Davis is neither fresh nor effective, leaving the door open for some late inning fireworks as well.
But Edison Volquez can’t be trusted any more than Doug Davis. Cinci sent Volquez down
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MLB
Chicago Cubs
Doug Davis
Cincinnati Reds
Edison Volquez
Teddy Covers
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
06.03.2011 12:38 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Detroit (Oliver) at Chicago (Buehrle) -135 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over
The Tigers offense is heating up with the Midwest weather, pounding out 18 runs in their just-concluded three-game sweep over Minnesota. Outfielder Brennan Boesch, talking about the team’s ‘feast or famine’ approach at the plate: “I think it will be mostly feast the rest of the year. We got a good team and we’re confident.”
The White Sox lineup is even hotter, cashing five consecutive over tickets. Ozzie Guillen’s squad hammered the Red Sox with 24 runs (at least seven in every game) during their three-game sweep at Fenway. Both teams have proven that they can do some damage against southpaws, a crucial factor in this lefty vs. lefty matchup. The Tigers pounded Brian Duensing earlier this week, while the White Sox had similar success against Jon Lester.
This series has been an over bettors paradise. Detroit and Chicago went 2-1 to the over in their lone previous
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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Mark Buehrle
Detroit Tigers
Andrew Oliver
Teddy Covers
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Betting the NBA Finals: Miami owns key matchup advantages
05.31.2011 07:42 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
For Part 1 of Teddy's NBA Finals Betting Breakdown,
click here
.
Road Rules
These two teams are here because they can win tough playoff games in hostile environments. The Mavs clinched their first round series with a SU Game 6 win in Portland. They swept the Lakers at the Staples Center in the second round and swept the Thunder in Oklahoma City with upset wins in Games 3 and 4 of that series as well.
The numbers don’t lie. So far, here in the postseason, Dallas is 5-2 SU, 6-0-1 ATS catching points on the road. I don’t put much stock into regular season results at this time of the year, but it’s surely worth noting that Dallas won SU in Miami on their lone previous visit to South Beach.
Miami has been just as good away from home. They effectively ended their first round series with the 76ers by
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NBA
Dallas Mavericks
Miami Heat
Teddy Covers
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"Teddy Covers'"
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