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MLB Handicapping: Miller Park's boost in offensive production

05.24.2013     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Check out the meteoric rise in offensive production at Miller Park over the last five seasons. In 2009 the stadium ranked 27th in terms of runs whereas this season it is currently third. Totals at Miller Park are 16-8 O/U yet only one game has closed with a total of 9. The Brewers certainly fit the profile of a dead-nuts-over squad; above average offense, below average starting pitching, shaky defense, and an even shakier bullpen. Also note there are rumblings that the outfield panels have had an impact on the wind current inside the park.

Miller Park - Park Factors 2009-13
Year
MLB Rank
Park
RUNS
HR
H
2B
3B
BB
2013
3
Miller Park
1.240
1.976
1.184
0.862
1.750
0.942
2012
7
Miller Park
1.168
1.631
0.997
0.987
1.333
1.060
2011
10
Miller Park
1.041
1.062
1.058
1.089
1.269
1.084
2010
15
Miller Park
1.005
1.233
0.993
0.994
0.600
1.032
2009
27
Miller Park
0.886
1.069
0.932
1.071
1.091
0.995





Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

05.22.2013     06:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LA Dodgers (Ryu) -110 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid thus far; like a lot of Far East products he features an arsenal of different pitches at different speeds. He's had a fairly favorable schedule with four games in LA and two in San Francisco and New York. In games at Atlanta, Baltimore, and Arizona, Ryu was a bit more hittable, allowing nine earned runs in 17 innings. Coming from the left side, I view today as perhaps his toughest assignment with the Brewers loaded with right-handed bats in a hitter friendly park.

Wily Peralta hasn't been the most fortunate starter in baseball but his 29-to-17 K-to-BB ratio in 50 innings certainly hasn't helped his cause. I like Peralta's groundball rate (54.5%) but his inability to consistently miss bats and avoid the long ball (6 HRs allowed) makes him a fringe NL arm in my book. Also note that his start in LA (6 IP, 3 ERs) was with Doug Eddings behind the plate.

And while Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange




MLB Gambling Free Play: Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers

05.07.2013     08:02 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Grimm) -110 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Despite the fact that 14 of 19 games have gone over the total at Miller Marker this season, only once has a game closed with a total of 9. Oddsmakers and the betting markets just haven't caught on that everything about these games screams offense. For starters, Milwaukee doesn't have any elite level starting pitchers. Yovani Gallardo has a decent pedigree but has struggled. Kyle Lohse is the only pitcher has performed up to his capabilities but he's obviously not involved this evening. And Marco Estrada and tonight's starter Wily Peralta have proved to be quite hittable with ERA's currently hovering around 6. Then of course there is Milwaukee's bullpen which statistically hasn't been as bad as it seems but still sports a group ERA north of 4.00. Finally, Milwaukee’s offense has been solid, especially at home where they average over five runs per game with .280/.811 splits. Tonight, Peralta is on the hill, and Read more



Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Texas Rangers Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.04.2013     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -120 at Milwaukee (Gallardo) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis


In 2011 and 2012, Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo struck out exactly a batter per inning – a mark of an above average MLB starter. This season, his numbers are way down with only 22 strikeouts in 36 innings. That is tied to the fact that his velocity is down. Gallardo is perhaps rounding into form with three straight quality starts but I'm not sure some of it didn't have to do with facing Pittsburgh, San Diego, and San Francisco. In his first three starts, he faced St. Louis, Arizona, and Colorado, three of the top offensive teams in the NL and they smacked him around for 12 runs in 16.1 IP. But the white elephant in this matchup is the fact that Gallardo has a horrific track record vs. St. Louis – something that I don't think is necessarily fluky as the Cardinals have always been a smart, well prepared organization. Some have suggested that they picked up on Gallardo tipping pitches but Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange




MLB Gambling Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.02.2013     10:38 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Westbrook) -105 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 9
Recommendation: St. Louis


The Brewers had a major bullpen problem last year that essentially doomed their chances for a repeat NL Central title.  Over the course of the 2012 season, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranked dead last in the majors in ERA, while losing a whopping 33 games (worst in the majors) and blowing 29 save chances (also worst in the majors). 

While the Brewers bullpen hasn’t been quite as bad this year, we’ve still seen six losses and five blown saves from this pen in their first 26 games, including yet another John Axford meltdown that cost them a series sweep against the Pirates yesterday.  That’s very bad news against a team like St. Louis – taking good at-bats for nine innings just about every game.

I give the Cardinals a decent starting pitching edge as well as their bullpen edge.  As a group, the Cardinals starters have a 1.32 ERA in their last Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling News: Bettors finally adjust to Milwaukee's Miller Park

05.01.2013     06:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Gomez) at Milwaukee (Burgos) -140 O/U 9

If you haven't already noticed, Milwaukee's Miller Park has been playing a tad bit small of late. And by a “tad bit” we mean home runs are being hit like a moderately competitive rec league softball game. Miller Park has surrendered an average of 3.4 home runs per game (2.8 last year). Of Milwaukee's 14 home games, seven have hit double digits including Monday and Tuesday’s 10-4 and 12-8 slugfests against Pittsburgh. Add it all up and 10 of Miller Park's 14 games have gone OVER the total. But what's most notable is not one those 14 games had a total above 8.5...until today. CRIS opened this afternoon's game at 8.5un-115 with Pittsburgh's Jeanmar Gómez taking on Milwaukee's Hiram Burgos. But following last night's 29 hits, 7 home runs, and 20 runs, bettors had seen enough. The game is currently 9 across the board – a number that could very well become the baseline for Miller Park if the home run derby Read more



Tags: MLB MIlwaukee Brewers




MLB Betting Free Play: Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

04.03.2013     12:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado (Nicasio) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -135 O/U 9
Recommendataion: Over


The roof will be closed at Miller Park again tonight – there’s no need to worry about the gametime temperatures hovering around the freezing mark.  And if we’re not worried about cold weather deflating production, this game has all the makings of another high scoring slugfest in a series that has already seen the first two games fly Over the total!

Colorado’s totals are still somewhat deflated following their anemic level of offensive production for most of the season last year.  But last year’s team was an injury riddled mess.  This year’s team has a healthy Troy Tulowitzki, a healthy Carlos Gonzalez and a healthy and rejuvenated Todd Helton, all three of whom were essentially non-factors for this team last year. 

Rockies manager Walt Weiss, following last night’s eight run outburst: “We really had some good at-bats tonight. Read more



Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

09.21.2012     06:41 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee (Marcum) at Washington (Jackson) -125 O/U 8
Recommendation: Washington


We’re in the midst of the MLB playoff push and unlike a majority of the season, you can have success betting on or against teams while pretty much ignoring the starting pitching matchup. Now that Milwaukee has jumped back in the postseason race, bettors are very eager to bet this squad. I don't blame them. If not for their bullpen, Milwaukee could have won 90+ games. But while it looks dangerous to step in front of this team, they won't have many edges in tonight's matchup. The Brewers tried to unload Shaun Marcum during the summer but there weren't any takers. He's had arm issues this season and since his return I've played over and/or against in each of his four starts (7.23 ERA, .997 OPS). Edwin Jackson doesn't get much fanfare but he takes the ball every fifth day and gives the Nationals a chance to win. He's a good fit vs. Milwaukee (.217 vs. righties). I respect Milwaukee's run, but we're Read more



Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Washington Nationals Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

08.20.2012     12:30 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Germano) at Milwaukee (Rogers) -155 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over


The Brewers lineup is hot right now.  Don’t be fooled by yesterday’s shutout loss, when both Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart got the day off to rest.  Even against one of the hottest pitchers in the majors, Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, the Brewers enjoyed some offensive success on Saturday.  Prior to that, Milwaukee had scored five runs or more in each of their last seven ballgames, flying Over the total six times during that span.

Chicago, too, has been hitting the ball well of late, averaging five runs per game in their last two series against the Reds and Astros.  No surprise, then, that we’ve seen the Cubs go 7-0 to the Over during the course of the last week.

Neither starter here is trustworthy.  Chicago’s Justin Germano has only one quality start in four tries with the team, while Rogers is still looking for his first big league Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling News: Trade rumors and velocity concerns for Zach Greinke

07.16.2012     12:34 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Keep an eye of Milwaukee's Zach Greinke over the next few weeks. He's been involved in a lot of trade rumors and doesn't seem like the type of guy who performs well with distraction. The Brewers scratched his Wednesday start saying that Greinke needed to "recharge his batteries". Greinke of course had an odd ending to the first half, making three starts in six days – one of which only last four pitches due to an ejection. In the other two starts, he allowed 12 hits and eight earned runs in eight innings. His velocity was reportedly down in his most recent outing.




Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers



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