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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

06.26.2013     11:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Feldman) at Milwaukee (Gallardo) -130 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Milwaukee

Yovani Gallardo’s season long numbers aren’t particularly impressive, but the Brewers ace is in tremendous current form.  He’s throw 21 innings over his last three starts, giving up only 12 hits and five walks without allowing a single earned run. 

Gallardo also has a tremendous track record against the Cubs.  He faced them four times last year, allowing only 18 hits and nine runs while striking out 34 batters.  Chicago has only one win in seven tries against Gallardo here at Miller Park, and I don’t expect them to notch another one this evening.

The Cubs certainly aren’t in good form right now, just 8-14 in their last 22 ballgames, fairly typical for the last place team that they are.  They’ve been nothing short of awful against their divisional rivals, losing 19 of the last 21 meetings in Milwaukee, including each of Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros

06.19.2013     08:06 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Milwaukee (Lohse) -115 at Houston (Bedard) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under

Extreme turnaround by the starters in tonight’s contest gives this game a totally different look than it would’ve had if played around five weeks ago. At that time, Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse was in the midst of a five game stretch where he did not post a quality start. Combined during that stretch, Lohse threw 27.2 innings, allowed an unbelievable 71 total bases, had a 1.81 WHIP, 6.51 ERA, and 16/9 K:BB numbers. Things have turned around for Lohse as he’s now had three straight quality outings with two of them coming against the strong offenses of Oakland and Cincinnati. The change in results has been drastic during this current run as Lohse has pitched 20 innings, allowed just 26 total bases, recorded a 2.25 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and posted 12/2 K:BB numbers. This consistent span is enhanced tonight by his recent ownership of the Astros (4-1, 1.59 ERA last two years). Houston remains a poor Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astors Milwaukee Brewers Rob Veno

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

06.11.2013     11:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Milwaukee (Peralta) -110 at Miami (Turner) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Milwaukee

This game comes down to one single question – how much do you value starting pitching?  There’s no doubt that Miami has a real starting pitching edge in this game, sending impressive rookie phenom Jacob Turner to the mound to face off against the very hittable Wily Peralta for the Brewers.  But that’s the only edge the Marlins have.  In a pick ‘em priced game, I don’t think that’s enough.  Here’s why:

Prior to the season, Miami was lined as a 63 or 64 win team, expected to approach the 100 loss mark.  They’ve lived up to those expectations.  At 18-45, the Marlins have the worst record in the major leagues.  Only the Astros have a weaker home record than Miami’s 10-21 mark.

Milwaukee was lined as a .500 level ball club coming into the campaign (80 or 81 wins).  Thanks to a disastrous month of May Read more

Tags: MLB Miwaukee Brewers Miami Marlins Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Free Pick: Oakland A's at Chicago White Sox

06.06.2013     10:56 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Oakland (Straily) -130 at Chicago WS (Quintana) O/U 8
Recommendation: Oakland

Oakland enters Chicago red hot having gone 16-3 over their last 19 games. They’ve won six consecutive series including their just completed two of three at Milwaukee where they outscored the Brewers 19-7. Everything is clicking right now for the A’s as evidenced by their +44 run differential (91-47) during this stretch. The offense has an outstanding .383 OBP, the starters own a 2.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while the bullpen has recorded 3 wins, 8 saves, 10 holds, 2.40 era and 1.11 WHIP. Oakland catches a break in this series opener since the White Sox were involved in a 5 hour 42 minute, 16 inning affair in Seattle yesterday. Aside from the extra innings and the long flight, Chicago’s bullpen is almost completely blown out for this contest. Chi Sox starter Jose Quintana has averaged a shade over 5.2 innings per outing this season and has completed seven full just once in his eleven starts. Last Read more

Tags: MLB Oakland A's Chicago White Sox Rob Veno

MLB Betting Notes: Brewers and Twins pile up bullpen innings

05.29.2013     01:48 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Milwaukee (Estrada) -115 at Minnesota (Deduno) O/U 8.5

Bettors should be aware of the bullpen situation for both Milwaukee and Minnesota heading into tonight's contest. Simply put, they've both been work pretty hard of late. Twins' starter Samuel Deduno doesn't have much of a pedigree for being able to go deep into games. Marco Estrada is a little more trustable but supporting a 19-30 National League team as a road favorite vs. the American League doesn't appear to provide us with much value.

Minnesota - Thursday
Roenicke 0.2
Duensing 0.1
Burton 1.0
Perkins 1.0

Minnesota - Friday
Fien 1.1
Roenicke 1.0
Burton 1.0
Perkins 1.0
Swarzak 2.0
Pressly 2.0
Duensing 1.0

Milwaukee - Sunday
Hand 2.0
Gonzalez 1.0
Kintzler 1.0
Rodriguez 1.0

Milwaukee - Monday
Gorzelanny 1.1
Gonzalez 0.2
Badenhop 0.2
Axford Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Handicapping: Miller Park's boost in offensive production

05.24.2013     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Check out the meteoric rise in offensive production at Miller Park over the last five seasons. In 2009 the stadium ranked 27th in terms of runs whereas this season it is currently third. Totals at Miller Park are 16-8 O/U yet only one game has closed with a total of 9. The Brewers certainly fit the profile of a dead-nuts-over squad; above average offense, below average starting pitching, shaky defense, and an even shakier bullpen. Also note there are rumblings that the outfield panels have had an impact on the wind current inside the park.

Miller Park - Park Factors 2009-13
MLB Rank
Miller Park
Miller Park
Miller Park
Miller Park
Miller Park

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

05.22.2013     06:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
LA Dodgers (Ryu) -110 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid thus far; like a lot of Far East products he features an arsenal of different pitches at different speeds. He's had a fairly favorable schedule with four games in LA and two in San Francisco and New York. In games at Atlanta, Baltimore, and Arizona, Ryu was a bit more hittable, allowing nine earned runs in 17 innings. Coming from the left side, I view today as perhaps his toughest assignment with the Brewers loaded with right-handed bats in a hitter friendly park.

Wily Peralta hasn't been the most fortunate starter in baseball but his 29-to-17 K-to-BB ratio in 50 innings certainly hasn't helped his cause. I like Peralta's groundball rate (54.5%) but his inability to consistently miss bats and avoid the long ball (6 HRs allowed) makes him a fringe NL arm in my book. Also note that his start in LA (6 IP, 3 ERs) was with Doug Eddings behind the plate.

And while Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Play: Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers

05.07.2013     08:02 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Texas (Grimm) -110 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Despite the fact that 14 of 19 games have gone over the total at Miller Marker this season, only once has a game closed with a total of 9. Oddsmakers and the betting markets just haven't caught on that everything about these games screams offense. For starters, Milwaukee doesn't have any elite level starting pitchers. Yovani Gallardo has a decent pedigree but has struggled. Kyle Lohse is the only pitcher has performed up to his capabilities but he's obviously not involved this evening. And Marco Estrada and tonight's starter Wily Peralta have proved to be quite hittable with ERA's currently hovering around 6. Then of course there is Milwaukee's bullpen which statistically hasn't been as bad as it seems but still sports a group ERA north of 4.00. Finally, Milwaukee’s offense has been solid, especially at home where they average over five runs per game with .280/.811 splits. Tonight, Peralta is on the hill, and Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Texas Rangers Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.04.2013     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -120 at Milwaukee (Gallardo) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis

In 2011 and 2012, Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo struck out exactly a batter per inning – a mark of an above average MLB starter. This season, his numbers are way down with only 22 strikeouts in 36 innings. That is tied to the fact that his velocity is down. Gallardo is perhaps rounding into form with three straight quality starts but I'm not sure some of it didn't have to do with facing Pittsburgh, San Diego, and San Francisco. In his first three starts, he faced St. Louis, Arizona, and Colorado, three of the top offensive teams in the NL and they smacked him around for 12 runs in 16.1 IP. But the white elephant in this matchup is the fact that Gallardo has a horrific track record vs. St. Louis – something that I don't think is necessarily fluky as the Cardinals have always been a smart, well prepared organization. Some have suggested that they picked up on Gallardo tipping pitches but Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.02.2013     10:38 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
St. Louis (Westbrook) -105 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 9
Recommendation: St. Louis

The Brewers had a major bullpen problem last year that essentially doomed their chances for a repeat NL Central title.  Over the course of the 2012 season, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranked dead last in the majors in ERA, while losing a whopping 33 games (worst in the majors) and blowing 29 save chances (also worst in the majors). 

While the Brewers bullpen hasn’t been quite as bad this year, we’ve still seen six losses and five blown saves from this pen in their first 26 games, including yet another John Axford meltdown that cost them a series sweep against the Pirates yesterday.  That’s very bad news against a team like St. Louis – taking good at-bats for nine innings just about every game.

I give the Cardinals a decent starting pitching edge as well as their bullpen edge.  As a group, the Cardinals starters have a 1.32 ERA in their last Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers


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