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MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.04.2013     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -120 at Milwaukee (Gallardo) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis

In 2011 and 2012, Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo struck out exactly a batter per inning – a mark of an above average MLB starter. This season, his numbers are way down with only 22 strikeouts in 36 innings. That is tied to the fact that his velocity is down. Gallardo is perhaps rounding into form with three straight quality starts but I'm not sure some of it didn't have to do with facing Pittsburgh, San Diego, and San Francisco. In his first three starts, he faced St. Louis, Arizona, and Colorado, three of the top offensive teams in the NL and they smacked him around for 12 runs in 16.1 IP. But the white elephant in this matchup is the fact that Gallardo has a horrific track record vs. St. Louis – something that I don't think is necessarily fluky as the Cardinals have always been a smart, well prepared organization. Some have suggested that they picked up on Gallardo tipping pitches but Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.02.2013     10:38 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
St. Louis (Westbrook) -105 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 9
Recommendation: St. Louis

The Brewers had a major bullpen problem last year that essentially doomed their chances for a repeat NL Central title.  Over the course of the 2012 season, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranked dead last in the majors in ERA, while losing a whopping 33 games (worst in the majors) and blowing 29 save chances (also worst in the majors). 

While the Brewers bullpen hasn’t been quite as bad this year, we’ve still seen six losses and five blown saves from this pen in their first 26 games, including yet another John Axford meltdown that cost them a series sweep against the Pirates yesterday.  That’s very bad news against a team like St. Louis – taking good at-bats for nine innings just about every game.

I give the Cardinals a decent starting pitching edge as well as their bullpen edge.  As a group, the Cardinals starters have a 1.32 ERA in their last Read more

Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling News: Bettors finally adjust to Milwaukee's Miller Park

05.01.2013     06:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Gomez) at Milwaukee (Burgos) -140 O/U 9

If you haven't already noticed, Milwaukee's Miller Park has been playing a tad bit small of late. And by a “tad bit” we mean home runs are being hit like a moderately competitive rec league softball game. Miller Park has surrendered an average of 3.4 home runs per game (2.8 last year). Of Milwaukee's 14 home games, seven have hit double digits including Monday and Tuesday’s 10-4 and 12-8 slugfests against Pittsburgh. Add it all up and 10 of Miller Park's 14 games have gone OVER the total. But what's most notable is not one those 14 games had a total above 8.5...until today. CRIS opened this afternoon's game at 8.5un-115 with Pittsburgh's Jeanmar Gómez taking on Milwaukee's Hiram Burgos. But following last night's 29 hits, 7 home runs, and 20 runs, bettors had seen enough. The game is currently 9 across the board – a number that could very well become the baseline for Miller Park if the home run derby Read more

Tags: MLB MIlwaukee Brewers

MLB Betting Free Play: Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

04.03.2013     12:08 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Colorado (Nicasio) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -135 O/U 9
Recommendataion: Over

The roof will be closed at Miller Park again tonight – there’s no need to worry about the gametime temperatures hovering around the freezing mark.  And if we’re not worried about cold weather deflating production, this game has all the makings of another high scoring slugfest in a series that has already seen the first two games fly Over the total!

Colorado’s totals are still somewhat deflated following their anemic level of offensive production for most of the season last year.  But last year’s team was an injury riddled mess.  This year’s team has a healthy Troy Tulowitzki, a healthy Carlos Gonzalez and a healthy and rejuvenated Todd Helton, all three of whom were essentially non-factors for this team last year. 

Rockies manager Walt Weiss, following last night’s eight run outburst: “We really had some good at-bats tonight. Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

09.21.2012     06:41 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Milwaukee (Marcum) at Washington (Jackson) -125 O/U 8
Recommendation: Washington

We’re in the midst of the MLB playoff push and unlike a majority of the season, you can have success betting on or against teams while pretty much ignoring the starting pitching matchup. Now that Milwaukee has jumped back in the postseason race, bettors are very eager to bet this squad. I don't blame them. If not for their bullpen, Milwaukee could have won 90+ games. But while it looks dangerous to step in front of this team, they won't have many edges in tonight's matchup. The Brewers tried to unload Shaun Marcum during the summer but there weren't any takers. He's had arm issues this season and since his return I've played over and/or against in each of his four starts (7.23 ERA, .997 OPS). Edwin Jackson doesn't get much fanfare but he takes the ball every fifth day and gives the Nationals a chance to win. He's a good fit vs. Milwaukee (.217 vs. righties). I respect Milwaukee's run, but we're Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Washington Nationals Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

08.20.2012     12:30 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Germano) at Milwaukee (Rogers) -155 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

The Brewers lineup is hot right now.  Don’t be fooled by yesterday’s shutout loss, when both Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart got the day off to rest.  Even against one of the hottest pitchers in the majors, Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, the Brewers enjoyed some offensive success on Saturday.  Prior to that, Milwaukee had scored five runs or more in each of their last seven ballgames, flying Over the total six times during that span.

Chicago, too, has been hitting the ball well of late, averaging five runs per game in their last two series against the Reds and Astros.  No surprise, then, that we’ve seen the Cubs go 7-0 to the Over during the course of the last week.

Neither starter here is trustworthy.  Chicago’s Justin Germano has only one quality start in four tries with the team, while Rogers is still looking for his first big league Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling News: Trade rumors and velocity concerns for Zach Greinke

07.16.2012     12:34 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Keep an eye of Milwaukee's Zach Greinke over the next few weeks. He's been involved in a lot of trade rumors and doesn't seem like the type of guy who performs well with distraction. The Brewers scratched his Wednesday start saying that Greinke needed to "recharge his batteries". Greinke of course had an odd ending to the first half, making three starts in six days – one of which only last four pitches due to an ejection. In the other two starts, he allowed 12 hits and eight earned runs in eight innings. His velocity was reportedly down in his most recent outing.

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Handicapping: White Sox send Humber to DL, recall Axelrod

06.23.2012     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Milwaukee (Wolf) at Chicago WS (Axelrod) -125 O/U 9.5

Add Chicago's Philip Humber to our list of starting pitchers on the DL. The way he was throwing of late, it may not be that big of a loss. In his place, at least for today, will be Dylan Axelrod. Axelrod made one spot start back in early May (4.1 IP, 2 ER at Detroit) and since then has been pitching in Triple-A (3.18 ERA, 68 IP, 66 Ks).

Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Betting Alert: Milwaukee Brewers call up rookie Thornburg for spot start

06.19.2012     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Toronto (Chavez) at Milwaukee (Thornburg) -130 O/U 9.5

With Shaun Marcum out with a bum elbow, the Milwaukee Brewers will turn to righty Tyler Thornburg for tonight's game against Toronto. Thornburg was a third round pick back in 2010 and went 8-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 75 innings at Double-A. Here is a scouting report on Thornburg from last season.

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Toronto Blue Jays

Shaun Marcum has apparently been granted the ability to pick opposing teams and pitchers

06.14.2012     01:29 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Milwaukee's Shaun Marcum has always been an interesting study. From a stuff standpoint, he isn't flashy, but he's managed to keep batters off balance for much of his career. But we’re not here to call out Marcum as some smoke-and-mirrors fraud. Instead we'll make mention of the fact that few starting pitchers if any have faced an easier slate of opposing offenses.

Marcum's Opponents (NL total runs rank out of 16)
vs. San Diego (15)
vs. Pittsburgh (16)
at LA Dodgers (6)
vs. San Francisco (11)
at Houston (8)
vs. Chicago (14)
at San Francisco (11)
at San Diego (14)
vs. Houston (8)
vs. Colorado (1)
at Atlanta (3)
at Chicago (14)

Note that Marcum faced Colorado in Milwaukee (the Rockies have scored the fewest road runs of any team in the NL) and also had the luxury of facing LA in pitcher friendly Dodgers Stadium. But wait! Let’s take this a step further and check out the opposing pitchers during Marcum's 12 starts. Now he did face two quality arms in Matt Cain (twice) and Erik Bedard. But beyond that, it has been a litany of below average pitchers: Edinson Volquez (twice), JA Happ (twice), Chris Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers


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