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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 2 Betting Recap

09.15.2014     07:18 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
My September NFL betting mantra is relatively simple.  It can be stated in one sentence: “Bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams.”   This strategy tends to be at its best  very early in the season, before the betting markets catch up to how good or how bad teams actually are compared to last year. 

That strategy did not fare well this past weekend for two reasons – many of the good teams played poorly and a good handful of the bad teams stepped up.  Of the seven top teams in my power ratings, only two managed to cover the pointspread on Sunday (Cincinnati and New England).  Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco all lost SU as favorites.  Denver won, by not my enough of a margin to cover the number.  And Green Bay pushed against the closing number but lost for anyone who bet the Packers throughout the course of the week.

On the other end of the spectrum, many of the bottom teams in my power ratings stepped up and played a good game.  The worst two teams in the league – Jacksonville and Oakland, according to my numbers – are both 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS.  Other weak teams like the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling: Patriots and Chargers top picks for Week 2 SuperContest

09.14.2014     08:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 2 of the Hilton/LVH/Westgate SuperContest.

1. New England -3 at Minnesota
2. San Diego +6 vs. Seattle
3. Buffalo +1 vs. Miami
4. San Francisco -6.5 vs. Chicago
5. Detroit +3 at Carolina

Least picked Sunday side: St. Louis +5.5 at Tampa Bay


Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers

09.10.2014     02:25 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seattle at San Diego
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Seattle -5 O/U 44.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -6 O/U 44
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Seattle

The recent history of defending Super Bowl Champions has not been a good one.  No team since the New England Patriots following their 2003 Super Bowl title has even won a single playoff game the following season. The last two defending champs – the Giants and Ravens – failed to make the playoffs the year after their title.

But Seattle is a different animal compared to recent Super Bowl champs.  Three things make the Seahawks different.  First, their coaching staff didn’t get raided this past offseason, as they return both coordinators.  The historical norm is that Super Bowl winning teams tend to lose some of their coaching talent in the offseason, but there’s full continuity for the Read more

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks San Diego Chargers Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: New England's offensive line faces another tough front seven

09.09.2014     01:37 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England -3 at Minnesota O/U 49

Last week against Miami, New England's offensive line was manhandled for much of the game. The Dolphins recorded four sacks on Tom Brady and a ton of hurries. This week's opponent, Minnesota, present a similar challenge. The Vikings notched five sacks and helped force two interceptions in their 34-6 domination of the Rams. New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels couldn’t pinpoint the exact root of the problem but pointed to the heat on humidity of Miami as a contributing factor.

“I don’t think there was one thing in particular,” McDaniels said. “I think you have to do a good job of being technically sound in terms of your protection to avoid pressure on the passer, obviously. Give credit to Miami; they deserve it. They did a good

Read more

Tags: MLB New England Patriots Minnesota Vikings Miami Dolphins

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Under- and over-reacting to early season football results

09.08.2014     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I probably heard the same expression 20 times last week: ‘Don’t overreact to Week 1 results.’   It’s one of those handicapping mantras that we hear every year right around this time – the very beginning of football season. 

In basketball or baseball there’s no week off between the first two games and the early season betting markets don’t react intensely off a single poor performance.  But for football – both NFL and college – the prevailing conventional wisdom is that Week 1 results are a thing to take with a grain of salt.

The concept certainly makes sense.  Coaches – especially college football coaches – will tell you that they expect their biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2.  Without the benefit of preseason games or even scrimmages against opposing squads, teams often ‘work out the kinks’ and ‘get up to game speed’ in their initial contest.  The team you expected to see this year (at least for bettors who do some homework and have opinions coming into the campaign) might not be the team you saw in Week 1, but there’s Read more

Tags: NFL College Football Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC East Reg Flags

09.02.2014     07:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Bettors react strongly to the NFL Preseason.  First string offenses that look good in August tend to attract betting market support.  The markets are much less reactive to defensive success or failure compared to offensive production.  And bettors tend to largely ignore coaching gameplans; unable to differentiate between coaches who were aggressively trying to set a tone for winning or whether their primary focus was on roster evaluation and personnel decisions.

The two primary areas where preseason results affect the betting markets are adjusting Week 1 numbers and moving the juice on season over/under win totals.  Some of these line moves are absolutely warranted; others are based on erroneous reactions to essentially meaningless football games.

I’m not willing to write off a team’s regular season chances based solely on preseason struggles.  But ignoring those struggles completely is the moral equivalent of sticking your head in the sand. A repeated inability to execute the game plan in August often carries over into September.

One NFL Division had more than their fair share of struggles in August, on at least one Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: NY Giants plan on playing offensive starters in preseason finale

08.25.2014     12:58 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at New York Giants -3 O/U 42

Following a slightly better showing in Week 3, New York's offensive starters are expected to play "15 to 18 snaps" in Thursday's preseason finale vs. New England. The Giants open the regular season at Detroit on Monday Night Football.

"(The starters are) going to play. They're going to play a little bit," Coughlin said. "It's a long way to the Monday night game."

"We expect to go out there and move the ball and see if we can do something," Manning said. "See if we can get into a good rhythm early in the game instead of having to wait until later."

Tags: NFL New York Giants New England Patriots

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Patriots gear up for Eagles' fast-paced attack

08.12.2014     02:22 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at Philadelphia -3 O/U 46.5

New England's Bill Belichick talks about his team's preparation for Philadelphia's up-tempo attack. The two teams will practice against one another prior to Friday's game. Last week's Eagles-Bears total opened 38.5, closed 41.5, and hit 62 points. The Patriots-Eagles total opened 45.5 and is currently as high as 47.

“Certainly we have plenty of [up-tempo teams] on our schedule, it appears anyway,” Belichick said. “This is a good opportunity to work on it. We do it some ourselves, so when we work against ourselves, we see that.”

“They produce more big plays than anybody else, so I think certainly his scheme has something to do with it. But, of course they have great players,” he said. “It was the whole combination of

Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Preseason Gambling: Brady sits, Mallett starts vs. Redskins

08.07.2014     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at Washington -1 O/U 38

The New England Patriots said that Tom Brady will not play in tonight's preseason opener at Washington. Back-up Ryan Mallett will start in his place.

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Washington Redskins

NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part I

07.28.2014     06:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve been writing about NFL Season Win Totals for the last few weeks, using what I call “advanced metric schedule analysis.”  This week, the time has come to write about another stage of the 2014 pre-preseason team analysis that affects every win total on the board – quarterbacks.

Why quarterbacks?  Because more than ever, in the modern ‘pass happy’ era of NFL Football, the quarterback is the most important position on any team.  Of course a great quarterback can’t be great without a decent receiving corps or a decent offensive line, so those must be included in the equation when discussing quarterbacks. 

Here’s what I wrote last year in this space:

“The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers


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