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NFL Gambling Update: Betting market show love toward underdogs

01.09.2015     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Checking in on the current pointspreads for this weekend's NFL Divisional Playoff games. As of Friday morning, all four underdogs have seen play the betting markets based on CRIS's openers.

Baltimore opened +7 and after early money on New England the Patriots are now -7 even money.

Seattle opened -11.5 but has settled -10.5 offshore and -11 in Las Vegas.

Green Bay opened -6.5 and was -6 for much of the week before dropping to -5.5 yesterday. Still plenty of +6's for those interested in the Cowboys.

Denver opened -7.5 even money but is now -7 (-105) across the board.





NFL Handicapping: Divisional Round pointspreads and power ratings

01.05.2015     07:49 AM     Read more



Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Top Super Bowl contenders all have flaws

12.29.2014     01:57 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re down to a dirty dozen in the NFL, as 20 of the 32 teams saw their seasons come to a close at the conclusion of another wild and wacky Week 17.  In my Wiseguy Reports over the past two weeks, I’ve been poking holes in the fringe contenders in both conferences.  This week, I’m going to put the four favorites under the microscope.  Guess what – all four are potentially vulnerable to an upset.

Let me start with the defending champs, the Seattle Seahawks.  When Pete Carroll built up his program at USC, the Trojans weren’t a one-and-done type squad for titles -- they were in the mix year after year under his tutelage.  They played fast, they played loose – never tense or uptight -- and they consistently played their very best football down the stretch.

Seattle did just that down the stretch last year.  And they’ve certainly done that this year; going 6-0 SU and ATS since their loss at Kansas City back in Week 11.  But before we anoint the Seahawks as the first repeat Super Bowl champs since the Patriots did it following the 2004 campaign, we’ve got to put this team under the Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Playoff Contenders

12.22.2014     10:09 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 16 of the NFL season is in the books and four teams have emerged as clear co-favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Green Bay and Seattle are at the top of the power ratings spectrum in the NFC while Denver and New England look poised for a rematch from last year in the AFC Championship Game.

Last week in this space, I poked holes in the NFC contenders, explaining why every other live team in the playoff race had at least one fundamental flaw primed to doom their chances in January.  This week, I’m going to point the magnifying glass towards the seven fringe contenders in the AFC.  Can any of them knock off the Patriots in Foxboro or the Broncos in Denver when January rolls around?  Read on to find out. 

The Houston Texans remain one of five teams still fighting for the final two playoff spots in the AFC after knocking off the Ravens on Sunday.  But if the Texans do manage to sneak into the postseason with a Wild Card berth, I’m not expecting them to do any damage. 

Houston’s defense ranks among the league’s elite, as we clearly saw once again this past weekend.  But the Texans average Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Patriots and Seahawks top SuperContest picks for Week 14

12.07.2014     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 14 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. New England -3.5 at San Diego
2t. Seattle +1 at Philadelphia
2t. Miami -2.5 vs. Baltimore
4. St. Louis -2.5 at Washington
5. Indianapolis -3.5 at Cleveland

Least picked Sunday side: Tennessee pk vs. NY Giants




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks




NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

11.27.2014     06:44 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Green Bay
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -3 O/U 57
CRIS Current: Green Bay -3 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Green Bay -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

NFL Totals don’t get much higher than this, with the current Over/Under posted in the 57.5/58 range for Sunday’s Patriots – Packers clash.  And I can certainly understand why this total is posted in this range – we’re looking at two teams that rank #1 and #2 in points scored this season; two teams with elite quarterbacks playing at the top of their game; and two teams that are a combined 12-2 to the Over since the beginning of October.

But all of that is most assuredly factored into this inflated number – the bookmakers and the betting markets aren’t flying blind at this late stage of the season.  Game temperatures at Lambeau Field are expected to be Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Seahawks, Cowboys, and Patriots top SuperContest plays for Week 12

11.23.2014     07:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 12 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Seattle -6.5 vs. Arizona
2. Dallas -3.5 at NY Giants
3. New England -7 vs. Detroit
4. NY Jets +4.5 vs. Buffalo
5. Baltimore +3.5 at New Orleans

Least picked Sunday side: Buffalo -4.5 vs. NY Jets




Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Preview: Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

11.20.2014     02:14 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New England -6 O/U 48
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: New England -9
Teddy Covers’ Recommendation: Under

On the one hand, the Patriots are as hot as any team in the NFL right now, reeling off six straight wins since that Monday Night Football debacle at Kansas City, while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  That includes impressive blowouts over the likes of Denver, Indy and Cincinnati the three teams that would win the other three AFC Divisions if the season ended today.  The Pats currently are a full game better than any team in the conference, with tiebreaker wins against all of them. As of now, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxboro.

But on the other hand, the betting markets are telling us clearly Read more



Tags: NFL Detroit Lions New England Patriots Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings Movers and Shakers

11.17.2014     08:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Following the Week 11 results, for the first time since 2012, I have a team other than the Denver Broncos or the Seattle Seahawks ranked #1 in my NFL Power Ratings.  Seattle has been steadily declining in my power ratings for most of the season.  The Seahawks lack of defensive line depth was problematic in early season losses to Dallas and San Diego, both of whom wore them down in the second half and were able to run the football successfully throughout.  The loss of stud lineman Brandon Mebane only made those depth concerns greater prior to their game at Kansas City this past weekend; a game where the Chiefs ran all over the Seahawks defense. 

Seattle also lacks consistent downfield playmakers at the wide receiver position since trading away Percy Harvin.  In their loss to the Chiefs, Seattle lost star center Max Unger to injury as well, truly an impact injury.  If the playoffs started today, the Seahawks would be on the outside looking in.  Clearly, this is not the best team in the NFL as we approach Thanksgiving and the December stretch run.

Denver has been ranked #1 or #2 in my power ratings in every single week since 2012, Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Patriots, Chiefs, and Packers to SuperContest picks for Week 11

11.16.2014     06:38 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 11 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. New England +3 at Indianapolis
2. Kansas City -1.5 vs. Seattle
3. Green Bay -6 vs. Philadelphia
4. Cleveland -3 vs. Houston
5. Detroit +2.5 at Arizona

Least picked Sunday side: Washington -7.5 vs. Tampa Bay




Tags: NFL




NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

10.29.2014     02:30 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver at New England
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -3 O/U 54
CRUS Current: Denver -3 O/U 55
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -0.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Denver

At first glance, this line probably seems high to most people. After all, the Patriots aren’t home underdogs very often; just four times since 2005.  We saw New England annihilate Cincinnati as a national TV home dog less than a month ago.  And the Pats are 41-21 ATS as a dog in the Belichick era, cashing at a 66% clip long term in this very role.

But before we get carried away with the Pats current four game winning streak, lets not forget that New England has largely been feasting on bottom feeders.  Their six victories this season have come against Minnesota, Oakland, Cinci (in a miserable spot for the Bengals), Buffalo, the Jets and Chicago (on a day where Jay Cutler was misfiring).  That’s Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots Teddy Covers



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