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MLB Gambling Notes: Jered Weaver's rapid decline continues

06.21.2013     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Cole) at LA Angels (Weaver) -160 O/U 7.5

Since returning from the DL, Los Angeles' Jered Weaver hasn't looked particularly sharp. He threw farily well against the Cubs (6 IP, 1 ER) but was smacked around by both the Orioles (5.2 IP, 4 ERs) and Yankees (6 IP, 5 ER).  His velocity in those three starts was up compared to where he was at earlier in the season. In fact, against the Yankees he had his best fastball velocity of the season and as a result posted a season-high 17 swinging strikes. However, as FanGraphs points out, pretty much all of Weaver's skills are on the decline and he needs to be approached with caution -- especially with how overvalued the Angels remain in the betting markets (-9.4 units YTD).

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

06.20.2013     11:55 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Miami (Koehler) at San Francisco (Gaudin) -175 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I have cashed a few Miami Marlins Over tickets since the returns of Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison to the lineup and I think we have another solid betting opportunity tonight as they head to the Bay Area to face the San Francisco Giants.

One of those Miami Over bets came in Tom Koehler’s last start as he was lit up big time allowing 9 runs on 8 hits in 4.2 rough innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Koehler simply doesn’t have dominating, overpowering stuff and it has shown in his last three starts as he has been knocked around for 17 earned runs and five homers. His performance level on the road hasn’t been good either notching an 0-2 record and a 5.04 ERA in four starts. I expect the surging San Francisco lineup which has scored 4+ runs in five of its last seven games to have a lot of success. On the flip side, I’m not sure how much longer Chad Gaudin Read more

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Miami Marlins Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapping: 5-Inning Tie Percentage by Stadium

06.20.2013     08:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence (a must follow on Twitter)

One of the fun challenges of trying to make smart selections on 5-inning Major League baseball props involves deciding whether or not to lay a half a run with less vigorish on favorites…or to take a half run for a less favorable payoff on underdogs.

Quick examples:

*A favorite in the -170 range might strike you as kind of pricey, even if there are clear edges that would suggest superiority within a five-inning sprint (and those would obviously have to exist for a team to be favored by that much!). You have the option of instead taking that favorite -0.5 runs and laying only around -120. Feels a lot cheaper because -120’s much better than -170. But, is it? How much is that half a run worth?

*An underdog in the +120 to +130 range will often make sense to be competitive within the first five. Does “competitive mean a lot of 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 ties? If so, Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapping: Colorado's Roy Oswalt back on the bump

06.20.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Colorado (Oswalt) at Washington (Zimmermann) -170 O/U 7

Roy Oswalt makes his return tonight in Washington after making five starts at Double-A (33.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, 25 Ks, 7 BBs, 5 HRs). According to one report, Oswalt's fastball was "consistently at 92 mph" and got as high as 95. In another, Oswalt himself admitted he more of a "91-92" guy and no longer "94." Not sure he's got the stuff to succeed in Coors Field at this stage in his career but tonight's matchup is one he should be able to handle.

"He's always a competitive guy, a tough at-bat," Weiss said. "He's a nice piece to have. He's ready to go. His velocity is real good and throwing all his pitches. "He's done just about everything in this game, pitched in big

Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Washington Nationals

MLB Gambling Free Play: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

06.19.2013     11:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NY Mets (Marcum) at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Atlanta -1.5 +120

After getting swept by the Mets yesterday, Atlanta was in no laughing mood.  They are in danger of losing their first series at home all year if they can’t notch the win today; an MLB best 24-10 on this field this year.  17 of those 24 wins have come by multi-run margins; consistent moneymakers at home when laying -1.5 on the run line.

Even after yesterday’s sweep, the Mets are 17-31 in their last 48 ballgames.  Starter Shaun Marcum is coming off a beating at the hands of the Cubs, the seventh time in his last ten starts that he’s notched only four or fewer strikeouts.  He’s winless in three previous tries on this field, and the suspect Mets bullpen behind him was used extensively in yesterday’s doubleheader. 

Braves starter Kris Medlen has owned the Mets lineup.  In 16 outings against New York he’s never lost a game, Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets Atlanta Braves Teddy Covers

MLB Betting Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros

06.19.2013     08:06 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Milwaukee (Lohse) -115 at Houston (Bedard) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under

Extreme turnaround by the starters in tonight’s contest gives this game a totally different look than it would’ve had if played around five weeks ago. At that time, Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse was in the midst of a five game stretch where he did not post a quality start. Combined during that stretch, Lohse threw 27.2 innings, allowed an unbelievable 71 total bases, had a 1.81 WHIP, 6.51 ERA, and 16/9 K:BB numbers. Things have turned around for Lohse as he’s now had three straight quality outings with two of them coming against the strong offenses of Oakland and Cincinnati. The change in results has been drastic during this current run as Lohse has pitched 20 innings, allowed just 26 total bases, recorded a 2.25 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and posted 12/2 K:BB numbers. This consistent span is enhanced tonight by his recent ownership of the Astros (4-1, 1.59 ERA last two years). Houston remains a poor Read more

Tags: MLB Houston Astors Milwaukee Brewers Rob Veno

NBA Finals Gambling: San Antonio Spurs are perfect ATS off a loss in postseason

06.19.2013     06:29 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -6 O/U 189.5

The Miami Heat's against the spread streak off of a loss came to an end last night in their 103-100 non-covering overtime win over the San Antonio Spurs last night. So now it is the Spurs' turn to see if they can maintain their stellar record off of a loss. Heading into Thursday's Game 7, San Antonio is 4-0 SU/ATS during the postseason and 23-5 SU, 16-11 ATS for the entire season (a mark that would be far better if not for late season rest situations). Also note that dating back to 2010, the Spurs are on a 8-0 SU/ATS streak off an overtime defeat.

Tags: MLB San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat

MLB Handicapping: Petco Park producing a higher home run rate

06.18.2013     01:25 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article by FanGraphs on the changes that have taken place at Petco Park since they moved in the fences. The sample size obviously isn't big but double and triples are down while home runs are up. On the season, the Padres are 18-16-2 O/U at home.

That’s a 0.49% increase run value per PA. In (3 x 9 PA) 27 PA of a game, that’s an increase of 0.135 runs. In about 7 games, they are scoring an extra run; that’s an extra run per week. So we can say this: More game-context-neutral offense has thus far occurred at Petco Park.

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres

Sports Betting Podcast 6-18-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning

06.18.2013     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning. Ian and Erin went through every game on the MLB card.

Today's segments
Full Show

Ian Cameron - American League

Erin Rynning - National League

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB Ian Cameron Erin Rynning

MLB Handicapping: Updated "Four-Max" 5-Inning Averages

06.18.2013     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’m back Monday with updated full season averages for the “four-max” concept I outlined for you last week. If you missed that report, these are:

*Offensive averages for five inning “first halves” in MLB action this year

*With a ceiling at four runs per game, to not reward superfluous scoring vs. bad pitching

*Which creates a realm of 0-1-2-3-4 with 2 as a median

*And rewards consistently putting runs on the board rather than occasional volume

Many handicappers and bettors are starting to pay more attention to five-inning propositions. This is a way to give you a sense of what’s normal, and who the best and worst offenses are when you’re trying to make decisions. It’s probably a pretty good general barometer for offenses overall too. Not a bad litmus test…can you score vs. standard rotation starters on a consistent basis with the lineup that’s been created by your manager to Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence


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