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NBA Gambling: Home Court Advantage in the Playoffs

05.08.2013     12:27 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve heard a few people talking about the value of home court advantage in the playoffs over the past few days. I haven’t heard anybody talking about the actual numbers from this year! Figured I should rectify that.

Through the Tuesday night doubleheader that just ended in Oklahoma City, we have the following results through 51 postseason games. Note that I’m counting all overtime games as net zero at the end of regulation. So, technically, these are the numbers through the first 48 minutes of all 51 postseason games.

The “average” game has been a win of 3.63 points by the home team

The “median” result has been a win of 2 points by the home team

I had been estimating about 4 points for market value based on the prices we’ve been seeing thus far. That average of 3.63 isn’t far off from that. But, it’s VERY important that the median is only two. We’re seeing a lot of blowouts that are skewing the Read more


Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Chicago Bulls outplay Miami Heat

05.07.2013     01:39 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
To call the Heat prohibitive favorites in their series against the Bulls is something of an understatement!  Miami was a 12.5- or 13-point favorite by tip-off against Chicago for Game 1, the single highest pointspread of the second round by a fairly wide margin.  For the series, the Heat opened as 1:50 favorites offshore and 1:30 favorites here in Vegas (laying $30 or $50 to win a single dollar).  Even after their Game 1 loss, the Heat are still 1:9 chalk to win the series; a true rarity when it comes to series prices for teams trailing 1-0 having already lost their home court advantage.

Games aren’t played on paper, and despite Miami’s enormous perceived advantage, they were clearly not the better team in the series opener on Monday Night.  Some of that was simply rust off following a week long layoff.  San Antonio – the other team that swept their first round series, then sat around waiting for the second round – was comparably flat.  But unlike Miami, San Antonio saved their best ball for crunch time of the fourth quarter, whereas the Heat looked gassed and shocked when Chicago scored the final ten points of the Read more


Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Miami Heat Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Durant leads OKC past Memphis in Game 1

05.06.2013     11:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Coming into the playoffs, the odds that backup OKC point guard Derek Fisher would be a defensive difference maker were somewhere between slim and none.   Then Russell Westbrook suffered a season ending injury.  Reggie Jackson, the second year point guard out of Boston College who averaged just 14 minutes of playing time during the regular season, has been promoted to the starting spot.  Fisher, who didn’t even sign with the Thunder until after the All-Star break, got a steady dose of garbage time minutes down the stretch.  He closed out his 24 game regular season stint with OKC averaging just 4.1 points on 33% shooting and 0.7 assists per game.

Fisher’s playoff history is truly a special one, highlighted by his infamous Game 5 buzzer beating three-pointer at San Antonio in Game 5 of the 2004 Western Conference Finals.  That shot is just one of quite literally dozens of huge makes from Fisher from a career that dates all the way back to 1996.  And Fisher hit a pair of impact three pointers in Game 1 against Memphis as well.  But the biggest clutch contribution from a guy with five championship rings on his fingers came Read more


Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Indiana takes 1-0 lead over New York

05.06.2013     11:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
While Game 1 went flying Over the total by 15 points, the truth of the matter is that New York is struggling mightily on the offensive end of the court these days.  They didn’t score more than 90 points in any of their games against the Celtics; the longest streak to start the playoffs since the shot clock came into play in the 1954-55 season.  As a result, since taking a 3-0 series lead against Boston, New York has lost three of their last four in straight up fashion despite being favored in all four games.

Health matters as much or more than any other factor at this time of the year, and the aging Knicks are struggling in that department as well.  Carmelo Anthony’s left shoulder is getting worse, not better after popping out of the socket during the Boston series.  Defensive mainstay Tyson Chandler isn’t anywhere near 100%.  Amare Stoudamire isn’t back in the lineup yet, although he could be before this series is through.  Steve Novak’s balky back is keeping him out of action as well.

New York earned the #2 seed in the East behind Miami because they were a solid defensive team, hit a boatload of three Read more


Tags: NBA New York Knicks Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




NBA Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings for Conference Semifinals

05.05.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We have numbers up in the markets for three of the four second round series. I’ll drop in an estimate for Miami and Chicago. Then we’ll tweak that as needed. I think the market is using 4 points for home court advantage to this point through the playoffs…so I’ll use that as a guideline.

88: Miami

85: San Antonio

84: Memphis

83: New York, Oklahoma City

82: Indiana

81: Golden State

80: Chicago with Deng and Hinrich

78: Chicago without Deng and Hinrich

I have to say I was very surprised when San Antonio opened up around -8 or -8.5 vs. Golden State. I don’t think the Spurs are suddenly chasing down Miami just because they swept the shorthanded Lakers. I don’t think Golden State is light years behind the rest of the West either. We’ll see. I’ve used 85 and 81 as a starting point. Maybe the Golden State media is right that this is a much worse matchup talent-wise for Read more


Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

05.04.2013     11:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago WS (Axelrod) at Kansas City (Guthrie) -145 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Kansas City


The Royals aren’t in first place by accident; a “bet on” team in early season play.  Ned Yost has seen his bats come alive over the last week – they’ve plated eight runs or more four times in their last seven games.  Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie is riding a streak of 16 consecutive starts without a loss, and KC is 14-2 in those 16 outings; a strong under-the-radar angle. 

Guthrie has owned the White Sox.  In four starts against Chicago last year, he allowed a grand total of one earned run in 29.2 innings of work.  He shut down the White Sox again in his lone previous start against them this year as well, throwing six innings of one run, nine strikeout ball.  And the surprisingly effective KC bullpen (ranked #4 in the majors in ERA) behind him is rested and ready off back-to-back rainouts.

White Sox manager Robin Read more


Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Chicago White Sox Teddy Covers




NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Oklahoma City and Memphis square off in Western Conference semifinals

05.04.2013     07:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A fascinating Friday night quadruple-header of Game Sixes resulted in NO Game Sevens for Sunday, as the 3-2 leaders all sealed their respective deals. We talked about the games out East in our earlier post. We wrap up the evening with a look at the two Western Conference finals.

Oklahoma City 103, Houston 94

2-Point Percentage: Oklahoma City 48%, Houston 39%

3-Point Shooting: Oklahoma City 11/27, Houston 14/32

Free Throws: Oklahoma City 16/16, Houston 20/31

1’s and 2’s: Oklahoma City 70, Houston 52

Rebounds: Oklahoma City 41, Houston 43

Turnovers: Oklahoma City 10, Houston 15

A few quick notes…

*Jeremy Lin was always going to be overmatched in this series because he’s slower than people realize, and his shot comes and goes (mostly goes vs. quality opposition). His injury was a blessing because it put better athletes on the floor. He’s a great kid…and worth Read more


Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence




NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Brooklyn Nets force Game 7 vs. Chicago Bulls

05.03.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s rare when you watch a team stay alive in the playoffs with a road victory, and come away from the game thinking “gutless.”

It’s just that...the bits and pieces of bodies that were wearing Chicago Bulls uniforms tonight battled so hard that anything else pales by comparison. Chicago was on basically a 5.5 man rotation…and one of their 40-minute guys was playing with plantar fasciitis pain that would have the rest of us on crutches. Another was dealing with the flu in a garbage can during timeouts.

Against a shorthanded team dealing with injuries, flu, and fatigue, the Brooklyn Nets scored 33 points in the first quarter, but only 35 points in the second half. They didn’t shoot well inside (extremely horrible in the second half because they started off well). They were only 5 of 14 on treys. They missed 11 free throws. And, they were outrebounded.

It was a win. And, it was a win that may have launched the Nets into a second round Read more


Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Brooklyn Nets Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling Notes: Verlander continues to roll despite drop in velocity

05.02.2013     12:32 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Most of you are already aware of Justin Verlander's drop in velocity. His four-seam fastball is down about a 1.5 mph from last season. But according to Verlander, there's a method to his madness. For starters he's well aware of the amount of innings and wear and tear he's endured throughout his career. As a result, there was no rush to start the season in top form. Second, and this has been going on the last few years, Verlander has become a master at pacing himself. Often times he'll sit in the low 90's early in a game and then gradually build up to the mid-90s. Despite him not having Verlander-type stuff in every start this season, it's hard to argue with the results: 39.1 IP, 41 Ks, 1 HR, 1.83 ERA.


"I learned a valuable lesson in 2008, and that’s not going about trying to create velocity the wrong way," Verlander said. "Just worry about establishing your pitches, making your pitches, getting outs. You start trying to throw hard, and that creates a lot of bad habits that are hard to fix."

"I threw a lot of Read more



Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers




MLB Handicapping: Houston's Harrell finds success with sinker

05.02.2013     12:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good Q&A on Houston pitcher Lucas Harrell courtesy of FanGraphs. Harrell has been one of the few bright spots for the Astros having won three consecutive starts. He lives and dies on a plus sinkerball and boasts nearly a 60/40 GB-to-FB ratio. He’s scheduled to start Saturday vs. Detroit.


“If you’re throwing your sinker at 88-90, or you’re throwing 90-93, that’s a big difference. The harder it is, the harder it is to hit. It rides a little bit more on the hands, which gives you a little more advantage. Even so, the more I’m out there, the sharper I am and the more action I have on the ball.”






Tags: MLB Houston Astros



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 29, 2014 05:44 AM.