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College Football Handicapping: SEC conference schedules
05.30.2012 11:54 AM
Printer Friendly
Scheduling in the SEC typically goes a long way in determining who prospers both straight up and against the spread. A well-timed bye week can do wonders while the second of back-to-back road games can spell disaster. With the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri, SEC schedules appear even more chaotic than in previous editions. No surprise that the league is already working to create a more
efficient format
for next year and beyond. Unlike the Big Ten which league-wide follows the non-conference-and-then-conference-play format, the SEC is all across the board. Some teams open up with league games in Week 1 while others won't see a conference opponent until Week 4. For some teams in the East, SEC regular season play is over by the first week in November while others like Mississippi State close out the year with five straight league games all the way through Thanksgiving weekend. Lastly, check out Texas A&M's inaugural SEC campaign. Talk about a wakeup call! The Aggies have a four-week stretch of games vs. LSU, at Auburn, at Mississippi State and at Alabama. Over/Under total
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College Football
SEC
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PGA's Memorial Tournament at Murfield Village Betting Preview
05.30.2012 11:07 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
We chipped in a
tournament preview
and match-up winner last week at Colonial and here are some thoughts, insight and player profiles for this week’s event at Muirfield Village.
Muirfield Village Golf Club was the dream and work of the great Jack Nicklaus. Located near his hometown of Columbus, Ohio, the Golden Bear named this course for the site of his first British Open victory. Jack’s tournament is by invitation only and will have 120 players competing this week.
The Nicklaus-designed course is a manicured masterpiece that stretches to 7,352 yards and is a par 72. The fairways offer some width and are quite generous despite being narrowed in the past five years. A second-shot course that requires creative shot-shaping and solid iron skills, players must play from the fairway and be more precise as they approach the pure bent grass greens. The greens are undulating and fast, but note a 30% chance of rain Thursday and 60% chance of rain Friday could soften them up for better scoring. Recent champions
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PGA
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NFL Handicapping: Understanding year-to-year turnover margin
05.30.2012 09:33 AM
Printer Friendly
A blog from Caesars’ sportsbook director Todd Fuhrman on year-to-year
turnover margin
in the NFL and using it to predict against the spread successes and failures.
The 49ers had the NFL’s second greatest change in turnover margin increasing from a margin of -1 in 2010 to +28 in 2011. San Francisco didn’t disappoint for their loyal bettors as the team went from 7-9 ATS in 2010 to 13-3 ATS in 2011. Their incredible increase in fortunes through turnover margin allowed the 49ers to play to their maximum potential but unfortunately have nowhere to go but down in 2012 if history is any indication.
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NFL
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MLB Bullpen Betting News and Notes 5-30-2012
05.30.2012 09:14 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
In today's action there are a few games where the final results could come down to some bullpen issues:
Milwaukee's Yovanni Gallardo might be able to go pitch for pitch with LA's Clayton Kershaw, but even if he does, the Brewers bullpen is really limited tonight. Their top pair of late innings arms, K-Rod (back-back games: 42 pitches) and John Axford (3 consecutive games: 63 pitches) are likely out of the equation leaving them Kameron Loe and Jose Veras against the Dodgers rested trio of Ronald Bellisario, Javy Guerra and closer Kenley Janssen.
Oakland and Minnesota send a couple of stating arms to the hill that have been extremely giving when it comes to allowing runs and they're backed by weak bullpen situations today. The best arm in the A's bullpen, ex-closer Grant Balfour has worked three straight days and current closer Brian Fuentes could be fragile after failing in that role yet again last night. There's just not a lot available in the Oakland relief corps. Minnesota will have closer Matt Capps off a day of rest if they get to that point today but with Liriano coming out of the pen for this start, things are shortened up. Liriano hasn't all season, but
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NBA Playoff History: Streaking Spurs to be tested by Thunder
05.25.2012 07:58 AM
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As reviewed in our
recent blog
, San Antonio is on a remarkable run entering the Western Conference Finals having won 18 straight games while rewarding their betting backers with a 15-2-1 ATS mark. Now the betting public seems to be riding the Spurs in the Western Conference finals series as well as Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, I’ve outlined some similar teams on remarkable rolls heading into the Conference Finals that did not pay off for their betting backers.
In 2009-10, the Orlando Magic were on a 28-3 run following a sweep of their first two playoff series. The Magic (-6.5) lost game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals to the Celtics 92-88 and lost the series 4-2.
In 2008-09, the Cleveland Cavaliers were on a 13-1 run including 8-0 in the opening two rounds of the NBA playoffs. Overall, the Cavs were on a 26-3 run heading into the NBA finals before losing the opening game to the Orlando Magic 107-106 as 8.5-point favorites. The Cavaliers went 66-16 during
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MLB Handicapping Notes: Chicago's Sale changes pitch selection
05.24.2012 11:29 AM
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Some positive news on Chicago's Chris Sale who threw seven scoreless innings in last night's win over Minnesota. Sale of course came out of the gates strong with a 2.81 ERA after five starts. But his elbow flared up and it was thought that he would return to the bullpen full-time. Sale however was given a second chance under the watchful eye of pitching coach Don Cooper. One of the things they agreed on was to
limit the amount of sliders
Sale threw – a likely source of the elbow issues. Instead, Sale has focused his attention on a more fastball/change-up approach. Of his 97 pitches against the Twins, only 19 were sliders. The start before that, only 12 sliders out of 103 pitches. Prior to the elbow concerns, Sale was tossing sliders around 25% of the time. Sale has a lot of upside, but you still need to keep tabs on the elbow situation.
“I thought I was commanding my fastball well and threw the changeup for strikes more so then I have been,” Sale said. “A.J. (Pierzynski ) knew that and used that to our advantage
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NBA Handicapping: Spurs on historic run heading into Western Conference Finals
05.24.2012 09:49 AM
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The San Antonio has been a model franchise for years while winning four NBA titles in 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007. Shooting for another championship, the Spurs head into the 2012 Western Conference finals as the hottest team in the NBA. They’ve won 18 straight games including eight straight in the playoffs. The Spurs have been bet up to a -205 series favorite over the Thunder and have looked nearly flawless while dominating opponents over the past six weeks. Despite being prohibitive favorites in a majority of their games, San Antonio has gone 15-2-1 ATS during its smoking hot run.
The Spurs are
flirting with history
as their 18-game winning streak is among the 10 longest in NBA history. They are the only playoff team averaging over 100 ppg (102.5). The Big Three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Mano Ginobili are scoring 46% of the team’s points, but this year’s Spurs team is deeper and more balanced. During the 2005 and 2007 championship seasons, the Big Three accounted for at least 62% of the team’s scoring.
Both San
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Las Vegas' biggest jackpot winners
05.23.2012 10:11 AM
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The
Las Vegas Sun
lists some of the biggest casino wins of all-time.
2003: Dude wins $39.7 million on a slot machine at Excalibur. His odds were reportedly one in 16.7 million.
2003: Cocktail waitress wins $34.9 million on a slot machine at Desert Inn.
1998: Retire flight attendant hits $27.5 million jackpot on a slot at Palace Station. She had previously won $680K on a different machine.
2002: Woman wins $22.6 million on a slot machine at Bally's.
1999: Illinois man won $21.3 million on a slot machine at Caesars.
2005: A man hit the Megabucks jackpot TWICE at Cannery Casino. The first for $4.6 million and the second for $21.1 million. We'd be interested to know his system.
2011: Women cashes in on $12.7 million at Aria slot machine.
2011: Another big winner at Aria. This time a $10.6 million winner.
2012: Marine nailed a slot machine winner at the Bellagio good for a $2.9 million pay day.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Lange cashes in on his 20* Big Sky Total of the Year for an undisclosed amount.
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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
05.22.2012 11:06 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Texas
(Harrison) -150 at
Seattle
(Noesi) O/U 7
Recommendation: Over
We’ve seen a deluge of Under money drive this total down from an opener of 8 all the way to 7. I do not agree with the line move one iota, leaving us with some real value on the Over in Seattle this evening.
The Mariners have a well-deserved reputation as a light hitting team, but they’ve been tearing the cover off the ball offensively for nearly a week. Seattle has pounded out 31 runs in their last five ballgames, scoring at least four in every contest. Don’t expect that to change dramatically tonight against struggling Rangers starter Matt Harrison. Harrison’s got a 7.48 ERA in four previous starts this month and only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill.
Texas got shut down by King Felix last night, ending a stretch of six consecutive games with at least four runs scored. But the Rangers battered Mariners starter Hector Noesi for
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MLB Gambling News and Notes: Cleveland Indians lead AL Central
05.21.2012 11:51 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
The Cleveland Indians were only a half-game behind the Detroit Tigers at the All-Star break last year, but unable to maintain their record during the second half. The Tribe still finished in second place in the division at 80-82, but the betting markets didn’t expect much improvement here in 2012, lining the Indians right around 79 wins for the current campaign. But Manny Acta’s squad has exceeded early season expectations – the Indians enter the new week in first place; 2.5 games ahead of the White Sox and three games ahead of Detroit. They currently rank #6 in all of baseball in profitability.
Cleveland certainly can’t match LA’s star power, nor can they match the Dodgers attendance. The Tribe rank dead last in fan support despite their hot start, drawing less than 16,000 attendees per game, while the Dodgers rank in the top quartile of the league, averaging more than 39,000 fans. And the Tribe’s -4 run differential through the first quarter of the campaign is another bad sign, a clear indicator that they’ve overachieved.
Cleveland, like LA, has enjoyed the benefits of an easy early
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