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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Monmouth Hawks at Canisius Golden Griffins

01.12.2014     08:39 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Monmouth +10.5 at Canisius
Recommendation: Monmouth

Familiarity between these new MAAC opponents will be minimal since they have not faced each other yet this season. Youthful Monmouth squad has gone to a unique lineup which features three guards and a pair of 6’10” true freshman centers. Using a pair of big men in an up-tempo system (73.0 possessions per game overall, 74.8 in league play) wouldn’t seem to be a good fit but with this alignment, Monmouth won at high octane Niagara Friday night 85-74. Head coach King Rice is confident that playing the duo of Chris Brady and Zac Tillman together will continue to make the Hawks better. Monmouth shot 63% from the field in the win but that’s far above their poor season average of 39.5%. Defensively, they’ve been sound over the past eight games allowing only Quinnipiac to shoot above 44% from the field.

Canisius played their third consecutive tight contest Friday night defeating Rider in double OT 94-91 on a buzzer beating three by star Billy Baron. The Golden Griffins haven’t had much trouble offensively in conference play averaging 79.6 ppg on 46.9% shooting Read more

Tags: College Basketball Monmouth Hawks Canisius Golden Griffins Rob Veno

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Xavier Musketeers at Creighton Bluejays

01.12.2014     08:26 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Xavier +8.5 at Creighton O/U 142
Recommendation: Xavier

Xavier has been an underdog three times this season, compiling a 3-0 spread record with a pair of outright wins vs. Cincinnati (64-47) and at Alabama (77-74). The only outright defeat came in a 77-74 loss to Iowa in overtime as a six-point underdog.

Chris Mack's team has a 13-3 straight-up record and a 10-4 against-the-spread mark. Xavier will take an eight-game winning streak into Omaha on Sunday to face Creighton. Most books have the Bluejays favored by -8.5.

Xavier has the better RPI (#27) compared to Creighton (#35). The Musketeers have covered the spread in six consecutive games, including triumphs over Marquette, Butler and St. John's to start 3-0 in their debut season in the Big East.

Xavier has played a tough schedule with a pair of wins over RPI Top-50 opponents, including a win over Tennessee. The Musketeers have won seven of 10 games versus foes in the RPI's Top 100. They have only lost one game by more than six, a 64-49 defeat against Tennessee when the Vols were in revenge mode.

Creighton won't be at full strength. Sixth-year senior guard Grant Read more

Tags: College Basketball Xavier Musketeers Creighton Bluejays Brian Edwards

College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 1-10-2014

01.10.2014     11:35 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Ole Miss star guard Marshall Henderson served the first of a two-game suspension in Thursday’s non-covering 65-62 home win over Auburn. Henderson will also have to sit out Saturday at Mississippi State as well. The suspension is for the Rebels’ first two SEC games dating back to his off-season shenanigans. Reports out of Oxford indicate that he might not have been able to play anyway, because he got injured (neck/back) serious enough for a hospital trip when he got banged up in practice during a rebounding drill earlier this week. Henderson is averaging a team-high 18.8 points per game.

Michigan State center Adreian Payne is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Minnesota due to a foot injury. Payne averages 16.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Travis Trice (illness), who averages 7.6 PPG, is also a question mark.

Vandy was already short-handed this season with the surprising loss of three likely starters over the offseason (one went pro in Europe, one transferred and one got suspended). Now Kevin Stallings's team is up against it again. Eric McClellan has been suspended for the rest of the season for a violation of the university's academic Read more

Tags: College Basketball Brian Edwards

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings

01.10.2014     11:28 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Orlando +7.5 at Sacramento O/U 205.5
Recommendation: Orlando

I can certainly understand why the betting markets have installed the Magic as 7.5-point underdogs in their matchup at Sacramento tonight.  The Magic have the second worst record in the NBA; only Milwaukee’s is worse.  Orlando is 3-14 SU on the highway, and they’ve been blown out in each of the first two games of this grueling West Coast swing. 

To make matters worse for Jacques Vaughn’s squad, they’re playing without their lone low post presence, center Nikola Vucevic; the only true center on the roster.  That leaves the likes of Big Baby Davis, Andrew Nicholson and Jason Maxiell to bang with DeMarcus Cousins in the paint; an undersized and under-talented trio. 

But for all of those negatives, I have one thing to say: 0-10 ATS.  Sacramento has been favored ten previous times this year.  Their next pointspread cover in this role will be their first.  And just about every team the Kings have been favored against during this remarkable run has a similar story to that of Orlando; teams with flaws, Read more

Tags: NBA Orlando Magic Sacramento Kings Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Divisional Round

01.09.2014     01:01 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Before getting to the drive point averages and estimated market Power Ratings, I wanted to point something that I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere yet in playoff coverage. Maybe it’s been mentioned…it’s not like I see everything out there. But, I don’t get the sense that much is being made of this reality yet in the NFC brackets.

*The four remaining NFC teams saw a lot of each other this year

*They played nothing but grinders against each other

It wasn't much of a secret during the year that Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina, and New Orleans were the top four teams in the NFC. There was debate about how the last three rated amongst each other. Some computer places fell too much in love with Philadelphia’s penchant for running up the stats against a soft schedule. And, Arizona may have crashed the party in some circles. But, the “big four” were pretty clear, and kept running into each other because the NFC South played the Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Handicapping: Ole Miss' Henderson sits, team may be better off

01.09.2014     08:11 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Auburn at Ole Miss -9

Interesting quote by Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy as the team prepares to play without the services of Marshall Henderson for the first two games of SEC play. Kennedy stated matter-of-factly that point guard Jarvis Summers has been the team's best player. The numbers back that up as Summers sports the team's best offensive rating (124.3) by a wide margin. In my opinion, the loss of Henderson doesn't hurt the team one bit. In fact, Ole Miss may even be better without him. Yes, Henderson can score and is a safety valve for when the shot clock is ticking down, but I've watched enough of Ole Miss basketball to know that the offense runs a lot smoother without Henderson and not to mention the incredible liability he is on defense – hence why Ole Miss has been spotted playing zone with Henderson on the floor despite having more than enough athletes to play better-than-average Read more

Tags: College Basketball Ole Miss Rebels Auburn Tigers

Bettor didn't hedge on Auburn to win BCS Championship ticket

01.07.2014     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The dude who bet $100 on Auburn to win the BCS Championship at 500-1 odds reportedly didn't hedge his bet and instead let it ride. According to Pinnacle's in-game odds, at its peak, Auburn was -7.5 (or roughly -325). Following the Tigers' go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter, they were priced at -200.

"I regret nothing," Skiba said after the game. "At the end if the day, I was playing with house money for the last two months. This was not supposed to happen in so many ways. It's the whole experience and the story. That's what I will remember.

"It was a bit of a life-changing experience just from the exposure standpoint and tonight it definitely peaked."

Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers SEC Florida State Seminoles ACC

BCS Championship Betting Recap: Florida State wins but Auburn gets the cash

01.07.2014     07:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Great game! You probably watched. No need to rehash the play-by-play. Let’s see what the numbers say about the evening…

Florida State 34, Auburn (+11) 31

Florida State: 385 yards, 5.8 per-play, 1 turnovers, 17% third downs

Auburn : 462 yards, 5.8 per-play, 1 turnovers, 56% third downs

Other Numbers

Florida State: 148 rush, 20-35-0-237 passing, 17 drive points, 24 stat score, 20 sloppiness

Auburn: 232 rush, 14-27-1-230 passing, 17 drive points, 31 stat score, 18 sloppiness

Auburn got the best of it when it was offense vs. defense, which was a big surprise. In fact, they scored exactly what they were supposed to based on stat score (2 times rushing, plus passing, times 0.67, divided by 15). Florida State’s kickoff return TD saved the day for the Seminoles. Throw that in, and stat score becomes a 31-all tie in a game that ended 34-31.

Auburn jumped to a 21-3 lead against a seemingly Read more

Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers SEC Florida State Seminoles ACC Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Divisional Round Betting Trends

01.06.2014     11:18 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Couple of betting trends for this weekend's NFL Divisional games. Since 2003, there have been 11 instances of a playoff rematch after a regular season game was decided by 20 points or more. Seattle beat New Orleans 34-7 in Week 13. The team that lost by 20 or more is 4-7 SU and 7-4 ATS in the playoffs. Also note, nine of those 11 games went over the total. We also looked up how playoff teams fared in the second of back-to-back road games. Teams in that spot have gone 14-20 SU but a healthy 20-14 ATS. The Saints, 49ers, and Chargers are in that spot this weekend.

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NBA Moneymakers!

01.06.2014     08:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The NBA regular season is less than two weeks away from the mid-way point of the campaign. But with the focus on football, the betting markets (and my own writing) have paid scant attention to the pro hoops ranks.  That ends here.

This week I’m going to focus on the good NBA teams; the moneymakers!  I’ll break down some of the best money earners in NBA thusfar and assess their profit making potential moving forward.  And I’ll take a look at a pair of ‘morphers’; teams that are playing significantly better than current market projections.

The Phoenix Suns are at the top of any moneymaker list; a classic example of how preseason expectations can affect ATS results for months, even when those expectations were clearly not right from Day 1 of the season!

Phoenix was lined in the range of 20 wins coming into the season.  The markets expected a major tank from first year, first time head coach Jeff Hornacek’s squad, angling for ping pong balls in the NBA lottery, not for a playoff spot.  But that clearly wasn’t the case, right from the get-go – they blew out Portland on Read more

Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Indiana Pacers Toronto Raptors Charlotte Bobcats Teddy Covers


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