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Teddy Covers Las Vegas Wise Guys Report: NFL Season O/U Wins

07.15.2013     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve written a couple of columns about the first NFL win totals posted here in Las Vegas. Now that the betting markets are starting to mature, it’s time to take another look at the Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams for the coming year. This week’s focus is on strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign.

I closed out my last column on NFL win totals by looking back at last year’s final strength of schedule, based on my power rating numbers for each opponent on the week that the game was played. Here was my final assessment:

“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for 2013.”

That Read more


Tags: NFL Season Wins Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: It's no Sharknado...but Marlincane Threatens NL East!

07.13.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

With the start of storm season in the Atlantic, it’s fitting that the Miami Marlins are now blowing through the NL East. They lead the coveted “won-lost record since June 6” stat that we created a couple of days ago (lol) after defeating Washington Friday Night.

NL East Since June 6

Miami 18-13

Washington 18-16

NY Mets 17-16

Atlanta 16-17

Philadelphia 15-17

There’s a hurricane coming…and my god…it’s full of angry marlins!

Let’s see how that record rates in the full National League in that same time period…

Best in NL Since June 6

Pittsburgh 20-11

LA Dodgers 20-12 (pending late Friday finish vs. Colorado)

Miami 18-13

St. Louis 17-14

Third best out of 15 teams! Tough to have seen that coming from a dismal 16-44 start. And, it’s not like the team is loaded with talent at the moment. Read more


Tags: MLB Miami Marlins Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling: With Golson out, Notre Dame goes with 2011 starter Rees

07.11.2013     01:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Notre Dame second-year offensive coordinator Chuck Martin discusses the team's quarterback situation. With Everett Golson out for at least a year, the Irish will go revert back to Tommy Rees who started for much of the 2011 season (2,871 yards, 65.5%, 20 TDs, 14 INTs) and played last year when Golson was injured.


“We can definitely develop in some areas,” Martin told Blue & Gold. “You’re in the second year with this offensive staff intact and the kids kind of get what’s going on, so there’s going to be some growth. There were some things we would have liked to do last year; we just couldn’t do them, or weren’t ready to do them.”






Tags: College Football Notre Dame Fighting Irish




MLB Handicapping: Miami Marlins and New York Mets finding ways to win

07.11.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

On June 6, the Miami Marlins were 16-44, suffering through one of the worst opening 60 game stretches in the history of baseball. The NL East standings since then:

Washington 18-14

Miami 17-13

NY Mets 17-15

Philadelphia 14-17

Atlanta 15-16

Those are through the games of Wednesday July 10, since that division wrapped up early. We joked about Miami and Atlanta turning into each other yesterday or the day before. Miami won today’s series finale easily, meaning they’ve been 2.5 games better than the Braves over a month of action while splitting six games head-to-head.

Imagine how season storylines might have been different if the Marlins and Mets had winning records over their first five weeks of action instead of their last five weeks.

The Mets beat the Giants today. Defending World Champion San Francisco is now 3-16 their last 19 games, and 17-35 over the last two months. Riches to rags. All sorts of bedlam in Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence Miami Marlins New York Mets




College Football Betting: Tennessee Vols start over with Butch Jones

07.10.2013     12:46 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There's a new regime at Tennessee with former Cincinnati head coach Butch Jones taking over for Derek Dooley. The Vols had plenty of problems last year but most noticeable was its horrific defense which ranked 110th nationally. Those numbers came under the watch of first-year defensive coordinator Sal Sunseri who has since moved on to Florida State. Jones brought with him John Jancek to serve as DC. Jancek spent time at Georgia and Cincinnati.

Cincinnati's Defense Under Butch Jones
Year - YPG Allowed (National Rank)
2010 - 369.4 (63rd)
2011 - 356.4 (42nd)
2012 - 388.1 (55th)

Tennessee’s Defense Under Derek Dooley
Year - YPG Allowed (National Rank)
2010 - 382.2 (69th)
2011 - 340.5 (27th)
2012 - 471.3 (110th)



Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers SEC




MLB Handicapping: Recapping Tuesday's games

07.10.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run through the results to update some recent Major League Baseball storylines we’ve been monitoring. Well take the games in market rotation order. If you're new to the site, we generally focus on what happens in the first five innings because there's a shortage of coverage in that particular betting proposition that's growing in popularity.

*Washington’s bats cooled off as soon as they stopped facing Milwaukee and San Diego pitching. So, there’s less reason to be enthusiastic about a surge into the playoff picture. The Nats are just two games over .500 with tonight’s full game loss. It’s probably going to take about +18 over .500 to grab a Wildcard (90-72). I usually use the four-max approach when talking about five-inning offense (capping scoring off at a maximum of four runs to diminish the impact of outliers). Look at Washington’s recent 5-inning statline if I leave in the real numbers: 1-1-5-8-0-0-3-8-3-11-0-1. Two 8’s and an 11! But, Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting News: Doubront's a better pitcher despite dip in velocity

07.10.2013     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boston (Doubront) -130 at Seattle (Harang) O/U 8

It is no secret that Felix Doubront's velocity is significantly down from last season. But this year's version has up until this point been far more effective. Doubront's strikeout rate is still a very respectable 8.51 per 9 and his FIP is a very healthy 3.74. What Doubront has done is avoid the long ball with only eight allowed through 92 innings. According to his catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia Doubront's success has come from far better command of his secondary pitches.


"He's got more command with his off-speed stuff," catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia said. "The changeup's a big pitch, 3-2 counts, 3-1 counts on big hitters. He's definitely become more of a complete pitcher, you can't really sit on one pitch. As far as just being able to throw the ball over the plate, get these hitters aggressive and Read more



Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Seattle Mariners




Canadian Football League Week 2 Betting Recap

07.09.2013     11:00 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Teams that have won straight up have covered every single game after the first two weeks of the CFL season. The SU winner is a perfect 8-0 ATS so far this season based on the closing number. Here is my recap of Week 2 and quick hitter team-by-team analysis of this week’s action…

Montreal Alouettes (1-1 SU/ATS)
Who would ever think that Montreal’s offense would be the source of their problems? But it was just that in their awful 19-11 home loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo played possibly the worst game I’ve seen him play in his CFL career and certainly since he’s been in Montreal. It raises questions about whether the game has finally caught up to the 40-year-old veteran despite his sure fire future CFL Hall Of Fame status. The offensive line was just as inept though as the Alouettes failed to protect Calvillo throughout the game as Winnipeg registered seven sacks. The Montreal defense forced five Winnipeg turnovers and played a very strong game which goes to show just how pathetic things were for Montreal on the offensive side of the football. There have been rumors that Calvillo and new Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins

07.08.2013     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.  We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.  The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.   The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month. 

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.  Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.  You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 16, 2014 10:28 PM.