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College Basketball Handicapping: Tracking close ATS results
02.29.2012 07:25 AM
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Submitted by
Back in early February some Fairway Followers requested updated information on college basketball ATS results, and I provided them in the Sportsmemo posting forum. With the regular season coming to a close this week, I thought it was a good time to update the results and see how this season compares to historical college basketball results. I reviewed box scores, stats and documented and tracked these results every night and the following mornings during the season.
Using historical data since the advent of the 3-point shot 25 years ago, approximately 40% of college basketball games and final scores will land within five points of the betting line. Approximately 10% of games and final scores will land within one point of the line (11% this season). This is slightly subjective with opening/closing line moves, but a good guide and indicator.
Using the closing lines as your guide for this college basketball season, here are the results month by month. Again, nearly 40% of the college basketball games and final scores landed within five points of the betting line (39.3%) with nearly 3,200 games and results.
College Basketball results within 5 points of the line as of 2/29/2012
Month
# Games
Within 5 points of line - %
November
586
203 - 34.6%
December
665
275 - 41.4%
January
952
382 - 40.1%
February
995
398 - 40.0%
Total
3,198
1,258 - 39.3%
While the
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NCAA Basketball Betting Notes: Ohio State limps into matchup vs. Northwestern
02.29.2012 06:55 AM
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Ohio State
-7 at
Northwestern
O/U 132.5
Ohio State has
lost three of five
entering tonight's game at Northwestern. Most surprising is the home losses to Michigan State and most recently Wisconsin – on senior night. Jared Sullinger came out and admitted he has been
distracted
of late.
“I had to throw them out of practice yesterday,” he said. “They weren’t ready to practice. And this team has shown we play like we practice.”
“It is just the little stuff,” Sullinger said. “It is just me letting the refs get to me, or letting everything on the outside get to me and letting it creep in. I was
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College Basketball
Ohio State Buckeyes
Northwestern Wildcats
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College Basketball Gambling: Rumors circulating of a scandal at UCLA
02.29.2012 06:06 AM
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Sports Illustrated is reportedly going to print with a scandal-like story on the
UCLA basketball program
and its relationship with drugs. Last night ESPNU said that the UCLA athletics department plans to call a press conference to repspond to the matter.
#UCLA HC Ben Howland on upcoming SI expose: "Specifically, I can't talk about any former player or student relative to anything having to do with that. We have a comprehensive drug policy here at UCLA where any time someone fails a drug test, I'm alerted, school's alerted and player is alerted, and I think we have a good program in place for all teams to receive education and counseling and receive discipline."
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UCLA Bruins
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Atlantic Sun Tournament Gambling Preview
02.29.2012 05:50 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
University Center, Macon, GA (Host: Mercer)
Favorite - #1 Belmont
Veteran head coach Rick Byrd (26th season) has by far the deepest and most talented team in the league. Belmont currently ranks second in the nation in points per game at 82.1 and their unselfish style has resulted in six players scoring between 9 and 14 points per game. The offense is extremely diverse executing up-tempo and half court styles with interior, perimeter and off the dribble scoring options. The Bruins depth was on full display this past Saturday as they sat starting junior PG Kerron Johnson (14 ppg) and sophomore SF Blake Jenkins due to minor injuries and still pulled out a 62-61 win right here against tournament #2 seed Mercer. At 22-7 with a 59 RPI and only one Top 50 RPI win (at Middle Tennessee State), it’s imperative for Belmont to win this tournament to gain a return trip to the NCAA Tournament. With their experience (seven upperclassmen in the nine man rotation), diversity (can effectively play two PG’s at the same time) and motivation, they should be the clear cut
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Belmont Bruins
Rob Veno
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College Basketball ATS Free Play: Kansas State Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies
02.28.2012 01:28 PM
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Submitted by
Kansas State
at
Texas A&M
+4.5 O/U 121.5
Recommendation: Texas A&M
Last home game for the Aggies and two senior starters. Texas A&M is trying to get to .500 and become eligible for postseason play. However, they have struggled down the stretch going 1-7 SU including their recent 0-3 slide. As noted in my
Last Home Game blog
and other supporting situations, Texas A&M (13-15) should come with plenty of energy and effort playing with revenge against Kansas State following a 64-53 loss in Manhattan earlier this month. Note that two of the Aggies top players missed that contest and both forward Khris Middleton and guard Dash Harris will play tonight in the rematch. That low possession loss to K-State is common for the Aggies, but their defense remains solid through their struggles allowing just 63
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Kansas State Wildcats
Texas A&M Aggies
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Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Odds: Murray State -800 favorite
02.28.2012 12:53 PM
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Odds on the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament courtesy of 5Dimes. Opening round action starts tomorrow in Nashville.
Odds to win OVC Tournament
Murray State -800
Tennessee State +600
Tennessee Tech +1600
Morehead State +3000
Austin Peay +3500
Southeast Missouri State +10000
Eastern Kentucky +10000
Jacksonville State +20000
Matchups
Wednesday
#5 Southeast Missouri vs. #8 Eastern Kentucky
#6 Austin Peay vs. #7 Jacksonville State
Thursday
#5/8 Winner vs. #4 Tennessee Tech
#6/7 Winner vs. #3 Morehead State
Friday
#8/5/4 Winner vs. #1 Murray State
#7/6/3 Winner vs. #2 Tennessee State
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Murray State Racers
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Horizon League Tournament: Three teams priced as double-digit underdogs
02.28.2012 12:33 PM
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Interesting to see three double-digit underdogs in the opening round of the
Horizon League Tournament
. Over the last four years, those teams have covered five of eight games.
Home Teams: 8-8 ATS
Favorites 9-7 ATS
Double-Digit Underdogs: 5-3 ATS
Horizon League Tournament First Round Betting History 2008-11
Year
Away
Home
ATS Winner
2011
Illinois-Chicago
Cleveland State
Illinois-Chicago +14.5
2011
Green Bay
Wright State
Wright State -6
2011
Loyola
Detroit
Detroit -4.5
2011
Youngstown
Valparaiso
Youngstown +13
2010
Loyola
Cleveland State
Cleveland State -10
2010
Detroit
Valparaiso
Detroit +1
2010
Illinois-Chicago
Milwaukee
Illinois-Chicago +12.5
2010
Youngstown
Green Bay
Green Bay -9.5
2009
Detroit
Cleveland State
Detroit +16
2009
Valparaiso
Wright State
Wright State -10
2009
Illinois-Chicago
Youngstown
Illinois-Chicago -2
2009
Loyola
Milwaukee
Milwaukee -7.5
2008
Detroit
Wright State
Wright State -11.5
2008
Green Bay
Valparaiso
Valparaiso -6.5
2008
Loyola
Milwaukee
Loyola +4.5
2008
Youngstown
Illinois-Chicago
Youngstown +12.5
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College Basketball Gambling: Situation continues to worsen for Mississippi State
02.28.2012 12:19 PM
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It is getting tougher and tougher to get to the window with Mississippi State these days. And with players calling out other players the situation has now reached
toxic levels
. Following Saturday 67-50 loss at Alabama, forward Arnett Moultrie came out and said that different players had different agendas. Head coach Rick Stansbury summed it up by saying "it kinda is what it is." The Bulldogs attempt to snap a five-game losing streak tomorrow at South Carolina.
"These last five games we haven't been playing like a team," Moultrie said. "Everybody got their own agendas. I see how they come up here (to the podium) and say how bad they want to win and how bad they want to go to the Final Four, but everybody doesn't work as hard as they say they want (in order) to win."
"I know it's easy for (Arnett) to get frustrated because things haven't gone our way, but there's some things I wish we did better but, at this point, it kinda is what it is," Stansbury said. "We aren't going to let one game make comments like that. After the
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Sports Betting Podcast 2-28-2012 with Rob Veno, Sammy P and Erin Rynning
02.28.2012 10:46 AM
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Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno, Sammy P and Erin Rynning. Rob broke down the College Basketball card, Sammy took care of the NHL, and Erin covered the entire NBA slate from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Rob Veno - College Basketball Every Game on the Board
Sammy P - NHL Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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NHL
NBA
Rob Veno
Sammy P
Erin Rynning
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College Basketball Free Play: Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores
02.28.2012 07:29 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Florida
at
Vanderbilt
-3.5 O/U 140.5
Recommendation: Vanderbilt
Obviously I'd like to see Florida off of a win rather than an embarrassing 76-62 loss at Georgia but I still feel like this is a prime spot for Vanderbilt. It is senior night for the Commodores as a group of six players (86 career wins) will play their final home game at Memorial Gym. The key to this game though is not senior night or the revenge factor but in fact an injury. The Gators will be without forward Will Yeguete who is out for the rest of the season with a foot injury. Yeguete doesn't get much attention because he is one of the team's last options on offense (4.4 ppg). But his impact on the defensive end of the floor cannot be understated. In Florida's win over Vandy earlier this season, the Gators unleashed a full court press and forced 17 turnovers in large part because of Yeguete. Without him, and on the road, I don't think Billy Donovan will be able to apply the amount of pressure
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Florida Gators
Andrew Lange
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