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Sports Betting Podcast 4-18-2012 with Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning
04.18.2012 09:59 AM
Printer Friendly
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy broke down tonight's NBA games while Erin took care of the MLB card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - NBA Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - MLB Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
NBA
MLB
Teddy Covers
Erin Rynning
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MLB Handicapping: Washington's starting rotation thrives with the fastball
04.18.2012 07:32 AM
Printer Friendly
Article on the Washington Nationals and they stellar starting rotation which is a combined 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA and .179 BA against. They've been getting the job done in large part by
committing to the fastball
. The group's average heater is 93.4 mph – the highest mark from a rotation since FanGraphs starting tracking the data in 2002. In 74.2 innings, the starting five has amassed 108 swinging strikes.
“Against these guys, it’s like you don’t get a chance to catch your breath,” Cincinnati Reds center fielder Drew Stubbs said. “You get done with one, it’s just on to the next one. We were here for four days. All four guys, and we missed Strasburg, can hit the mid-90s. That’s tough. It’s very rare. Usually, you only have one guy in the rotation who throws like that.”
“It does go along with my philosophy,” General Manager Mike Rizzo said. “The radar readings, per se, there’s no philosophy there.
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MLB
Washington Nationals
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MLB Handicapping: Bettors likely to maintain fade of Tim Lincecum
04.17.2012 02:07 PM
Printer Friendly
UPDATE
FanGraphs
tries to make the case that Tim Lincecum's rough start to the season may only be temporary. They use previous seasons to indicate dramatic drops in velocity early on followed by eventual turnarounds. We've talked a lot of about velocity in these pages of late and Lincecum isn't the only one currently in decline (not to mention his BAbip is an ungodly .435). Perhaps it is a small nagging injury and coming from a guy who rarely misses starts (and reportedly doesn't ice his arm) admitting as such would be embarrassing. That or maybe he is just wearing down after reaching 1,000 innings in just five years. Either way, while many have righted the ship before him, betting on Lincecum at this point remains difficult.
MLB Gambling Update: Lincecum tries to bounce back after back-to-back
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Tags:
MLB
San Francisco Giants
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Free MLB Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
04.17.2012 11:51 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Baltimore (Chen) +115 at Chicago (Danks) O/U 8
Recommendation: Baltimore
John Danks is a notoriously slow starter, with a history of miserable early season results. The numbers don’t lie. Last year, Chicago went 1-10 in Danks’ first 11 trips to the hill, and he had an ERA above 5.00 heading into June. His career splits show a 16-25 record for the first two months of the season, compared to seven games over .500 from June 1st onwards. He struggled in both starts against this Orioles lineup last year: ten runs and 15 hits allowed in just 12.1 innings of work. The White Sox bullpen behind him isn’t fresh, after short stints from Phil Humber and Chris Sale over the past two days. And Chicago’s lineup isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball with their bats, ranked 12th among 14 American League teams in runs scored this year while hitting just .237 as a team. While Chicago has lost two straight following its surprisingly hot start – coming back to earth – the Orioles remain alone in first place in the best division in baseball. They are in excellent current form,
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Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-17-2012 with Handicapper Teddy Covers
04.17.2012 09:33 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy broke down tonight's MLB and NBA games from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Teddy Covers - MLB and NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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NBA
MLB
Teddy Covers
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MLB Gambling Notes: Scout not impressed with Darvish, compares him to Dice-K
04.17.2012 08:13 AM
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UPDATE
One scout
has not been impressed
with Texas' Yu Darvish through two starts. Texas won both games but Darvish allowed 17 hits and eight walks in 11.1 innings. More importantly, he was a -235 home favorite and -155 road favorite – prices that are unlikely to change much given Texas' current place in the betting markets. Darvish is slated to start Friday in Detroit.
“He’s going to give up a ton of hits,” the scout said. “A lot of his fastballs are very straight. The guy is supposed to throw hard. But he basically pitched at 89 to 92, touching 93-94. That’s pretty good in Japan. It’s not very good here.
“He has a good cutter, a good curveball. But when he gets in trouble, he turns into a breaking-ball guy – nibble, nibble, he won’t let it go. He reminded me of
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Texas Rangers
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MLB Betting Notes: Boston's Bard shows signs of promise
04.17.2012 07:32 AM
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Boston's Daniel Bard is becoming an interesting case study after switching from the bullpen to starting rotation. Yesterday, Bard allowed one earned run in 6.2 innings against Tampa Bay but walked seven batters thanks to some
spotty command with the fastball
. He did however fan seven batters and had 13 swinging strikes. In his first start against Toronto he recorded an amazing 17 swinging strikes. Clearly, this kid has
legit stuff
even though it may take some time for him to put everything together.
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MLB
Boston Red Sox
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MLB Handicapping Update: Molina, umpire help key Tampa Bay win
04.17.2012 07:22 AM
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UPDATE
Yesterday, we posted a blog (see below) on the impact catchers can have in preventing runs. One of those highlighted was Tampa’s Jose Molina who has developed a reputation for being one of the better pitch framers in the game. Nowhere was this more apparent than during yesterday's infamous Cody Ross at-bat to end the game. Part of it may have had to do with umpire Larry Vanover but according to
FanGraphs
, Molina seemed aware of Vanover's tendencies and took advantage. That or Vanover had somewhere to be after the game.
MLB Handicapping Tips: The impact catchers have on preventing runs
04.16.2012 12:05 PM
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Tampa Bay Rays
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MLB Betting Notes: Pittsburgh Pirates continue to thrive at not playing smart baseball
04.16.2012 12:32 PM
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Just in case you thought the Pittsburgh Pirates organization was moving in the right direction we present to you the chart below. Those are top nine players in terms of plate appearances. You'll notice that in 220 trips to the plate, those nine have a grand total of six walks! As a team, the Pirates have taken 13 base on balls and struck out 73 times in 310 PAs. Note that of their nine games, four were against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Cain – premium arms that don't give too many free passes. But even with last year’s small stretch of success early on, the overall philosophy in Pittsburgh simply has not changed. Weaker offensive teams have to find ways to manufacture runs and it starts with plate discipline. The fact that first round pick Pedro Alvarez is batting .051 and has yet to take a walk would never fly on a team like Tampa Bay. Wonder if
these guys
are back in action this year?
Pittsburgh Pirates Batting Stats through 4/16/2011
Player
PA
AB
BB
SO
BA
OBP
Alex Presley
37
35
1
8
0.286
0.306
Andrew McCutchen
37
33
3
4
0.333
0.405
Jose Tabata
31
30
0
6
0.133
0.161
Neil Walker
30
29
1
5
0.172
0.200
Clint Barmes
29
26
0
8
0.115
0.179
Casey McGehee
22
22
0
2
0.318
0.318
Rod Barajas
21
20
1
4
0.050
0.095
Pedro Alvarez
19
19
0
12
0.053
0.053
Garrett Jones
18
18
0
6
0.222
0.222
Results
244
232
6
55
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MLB Handicapping Tips: The impact catchers have on preventing runs
04.16.2012 12:05 PM
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A few very interesting articles regarding the impact catches can have on "runs saved." Baseball Prospectus took
multiple variables
and ranked them with Tampa Bay's Jose Molina atop a majority of the categories. According to BP, from 2008-11
Molina prevented 103 runs
based on his defense, the throwing out of would be base stealers and perhaps most important, the ability to frame pitches. Even more impressive is that Molina played in about half the amount of games as others on the list.
As we have learned from reading Jonah Keri’s The Extra 2%, the Rays are looking for wins that can be bought at a low price, just as the Moneyball Athletics were. It’s quite likely that the 10-to-20 runs above average Jose Molina could contribute by inducing the umpires to call a few more borderline strikes would come cheaper than an equivalent amount produced by the bat of another catcher.
I’m positive that the Rays are aware of Jose Molina’s framing skill
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