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College Basketball Free Pick: Central Michigan at Minnesota
12.13.2011 08:37 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Central Michigan
+17.5 at
Minnesota
O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Central Michigan
This price is getting a little too rich for the type of game I expect in Minneapolis tonight. Since the injury to Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota has slowed down its pace and produced four straight ugly wins in which the Gophers did a number on the opposition defensively. Last time out, they held bottom feeder St. Peter's to 47 points in a 22-point win. Impressive, but it is tough to consistently cover big pointspreads in such low scoring games. Central Michigan has showed more than I thought they would thus far. The Chippewas have scored a few so-so wins and have been blown out just once (78-49 vs. high powered New Mexico State). Last time out they blew a double-digit lead at Tennessee State so I expect a bounce-back effort tonight. They unquestionably will have a difficult time topping 60 points but with a total of 127.5, possessions are going to be limited and that
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Tags:
College Basketball
Central Michigan Chippewas
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting News: Breaking down the Big XII Conference
12.12.2011 02:01 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
With finals exams upon us, the college basketball card is light so I'll be providing conference breakdowns throughout the week.
Big XII
- Bill Self was worried about KU's offense but the Jayhawks just ripped off 77 vs. Florida Atlantic, 70 in a 65-possession game vs. South Florida, 88 vs. Long Beach and 78 vs. Ohio State. Make no mistake, Kansas isn't go to score 75+ every night, but I think they'll have a much easier time scoring against the Big XII than what was originally projected after a few so-so performances in Maui. Don't get too high on Missouri -- the Tigers are once against coasting through the non-conference. But even with a host of talent, the Tigers always seem to underachieve when the heat gets turned up (see: 1-5 SU finish last year). Also note that their three solid non-conference wins were in reality nothing special with Notre Dame and Villanova way down and Cal not being able to play on the road. I like Baylor. I like them a lot. The only problem is they may have too much talent. That and they play dumb at times. Keep an eye out for BU’s three upcoming non-conference games against teams that are well coached and can take
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College Basketball Betting News: Breaking down the Big Ten Conference
12.12.2011 08:18 AM
Andrew Lange
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With finals exams upon us, the college basketball card is light so I'll be providing conference breakdowns throughout the week.
Big Ten -
Even with the loss at Kansas (no Sullinger), Ohio State is unquestionably the class of the league. The one thing I don't like Wisconsin is its current offensive blueprint. In terms of point distribution, 41.4% of their points come from beyond the three-point line while only 11.9% of their points come from the charity stripe. That ratio was 36.1%/18.9% last year. Now on the flip side, Wisconsin defends the three-point line extremely well (24.6%) and doesn't foul but how is this team going to win on a consistent basis if they don't shoot 40% from three – a tough thing to do in Big Ten play. Add in the lack of free throw attempts (12 per game) and you can already sense there are going to be a lot of game scores in the low 100's. Ultimately, defense and good coaching will keep the Badgers at the top of the standings though I think it is going to be more of a struggle this year. Michigan State isn't going to be nearly as bad as the offseason losses suggested. I was really impressed with their win at Gonzaga. Purdue is
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Handicapper Teddy Covers: Week 14 AFC Betting News and Notes
12.12.2011 07:00 AM
Teddy Covers
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Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC News and Notes from Week 14.
San Diego
How does a team that has marched down the field and scored on their opening drive in each of the last seven weeks be sitting in last place at the start of the game? Simple – they don't carry any of that early momentum forward – once the scripted plays run out, so does the offense! And there's a character issue here as well – when their opponent punches, the Chargers don't seem to punch back very well. But San Diego finally punched back here after the Bills cut the lead to six following yet another unforced Philip Rivers error, with a TD drive followed by a pick six to retake control of the game. That's a very positive sign for a team that still believes they can sneak into the playoffs. For as rough as Philip Rivers' season has been, he came into the game leading the NFL in
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NFL Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins
12.11.2011 07:12 AM
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Philadelphia
at
Miami
-3 O/U 45
Michael Vick returns following a three week absence due to bruised and broken ribs. Or was it a bruised ego? Eagles still have the league’s No. 3 offense at 412 ypg and No. 2 rushing attack averaging 157 ypg and a league best 5.5 ypr thanks to RB LeSean McCoy (1,134 rushing yards). So why just four wins? Start with a -13 net turnover differential, sub-par defense with inexperienced linebackers, poor special teams and coach killer Vick fumbling eight times with 11 INTs. The return of receiver Jeremy Maclin (hamstring) will also help this week. Miami (4-8) has been on the road to recovery with six straight ATS wins. We know the public hates to bet on bad teams, yet the Dolphins prove bad is good again. Matt Moore has delivered far better than expected with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio the past four weeks. But the Dolphins defense has really stepped up allowing 14, 8 and 9 points their last three home games. Philly
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NFL Handicapping Preview: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
12.11.2011 07:05 AM
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New Orleans
-3.5 at
Tennessee
O/U 50.5
Over the first half of the season, the Titans had the league’s worst rushing offense averaging less that 70 ypg. Surprising considering running back Chris Johnson was in the backfield. But in three of the past four games we have seen a return to the ground game with 187, 202 and 172 rushing yards. No coincidence that Tennessee has gone 3-0 SU/ATS in those games. The Saints allow 4.9 ypr, so the chance for more running game success is there. But New Orleans features the ‘other’ league MVP in Drew Brees, who has passed for over 4,000 yards with 31 TDs and 11 INTs. The Saints (9-3) hold a two-game lead in the NFC South and are just 3-3 on the road. Yet they enter on a 4-0 SU/ATS run scoring at least 26 ppg in all four games including against three quality opponents. The Saints have the NFL’s No. 1 offense averaging 449 ypg, 6.5 yards per play and 25 first downs per game. But road
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NFL Gambling Preview: Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos
12.11.2011 07:01 AM
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Denver
-3 O/U 35.5
What a crazy and terrific run for Tim Tebow and the Broncos. Led by a destructive defense and super surging running game that leads the league at 159 ypg, the Broncos are winning just the way I often describe success in the NFL; strong running game a solid run defense. Now on a 6-1 SU/ATS run with five straight wins as underdogs and five road wins under Tebow, the Broncos find themselves tied for first place in the AFC West. I’ve been waiting for the right spot to play against Denver as they have seemingly caught most teams in the right situation or with injuries. Now they get the Bears without RB Forte, QB Cutler and off a very poor showing by QB Hanie, who has been sacked 11 times in his two recent starts. Say hello to DE Elvis Dumervil and LB Von Miller, the league’s sack leader. The Bears defense will have to deliver, but with 25 takeaways and the league’s best special teams and return units, the Bears
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Sunday Night NFL Betting Preview: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
12.11.2011 06:56 AM
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at
Dallas
-4.5 O/U 50.5
Big battle in Big D Sunday Night with first place in the NFC East on the line. Dallas (7-5) really blew it at Arizona last week, losing in overtime after shutting down the Cardinals in the first half. But they remain in first place as the Giants (6-6) have lost four straight games while playing the toughest schedule in the league the second half of the season. These two teams will meet in the last week of the regular season as well, but this looks like a strong bounce back situation for the sometimes clueless Cowboys. Dallas is just 2-6-1 ATS as favorite recently and 4-10 ATS as division home favorite. But as I talk about often, this game will be won along the line of scrimmage and that’s where Dallas has the advantage. New York allows 127 rushing ypg and 4.6 ypr while the Giants offense is struggling in the ground game with just 84 rushing ypg at 3.3 ypr; both worst in the NFL. Dallas’ top-10 run
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NFL Handicapping Preview: Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers
12.10.2011 08:52 AM
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Oakland
at
Green Bay
11.5 O/U 51.5
Something smells and I think it’s the cheese. The perfect Packers (12-0) continue to prosper and profit (8-4 ATS) despite being a public favorite every week. That’s what happens when you have the league MVP pulling the trigger and turning in one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. It doesn’t hurt to be +16 in turnovers; the league’s best TO margin. Rogers has thrown for over 3,800 yards with 37 TDs and just 5 INTs. Thanks to those gaudy numbers, the Packers have been able to overcome a suspect running game and poor defense. Look to the bottom of the defensive standings and you’ll see Green Bay just ahead of New England, as the Pack allow 298 ypg and 6.3 yards per play; the league’s worst. With teams often playing from behind, we’ll cut the Packers defense a little slack as they soften the coverage, but they also allow 4.9 yards per rush. Problem is, the Raiders allow 5.2 ypr
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NFL Betting Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
12.10.2011 08:41 AM
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Atlanta
-3 at
Carolina
O/U 47
The Falcons have let us down the past two weeks, but we’ll try to answer with them again this week. The Falcons should be plenty focused following a road loss last week and are currently tied for the NFC’s final playoff spot. Atlanta ran the ball 35 times for 166 yards in the first meeting with the Panthers, and you know what that means. A 31-17 SU/ATS win could be duplicated with another big ground game against a punchless Panthers defense that allows 132 rushing ypg and 4.6 ypr. Add in the league’s worst yards per pass attempt defense (8.4) and you can see why Cam Newton can’t carry Carolina himself. Newton has leveled off and has just 2 TDs and 5 INTs his past four games. He threw three INTs against Atlanta in the first meeting this year, and his scrambling could be slowed again as Atlanta has the league’s No. 3 run defense allowing just 90 rushing ypg. The Falcons are 4-0 SU off a loss this
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