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MLB Betting Notes: Boston's Bard shows signs of promise
04.17.2012 07:32 AM
Printer Friendly
Boston's Daniel Bard is becoming an interesting case study after switching from the bullpen to starting rotation. Yesterday, Bard allowed one earned run in 6.2 innings against Tampa Bay but walked seven batters thanks to some
spotty command with the fastball
. He did however fan seven batters and had 13 swinging strikes. In his first start against Toronto he recorded an amazing 17 swinging strikes. Clearly, this kid has
legit stuff
even though it may take some time for him to put everything together.
Tags:
MLB
Boston Red Sox
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MLB Handicapping Update: Molina, umpire help key Tampa Bay win
04.17.2012 07:22 AM
Printer Friendly
UPDATE
Yesterday, we posted a blog (see below) on the impact catchers can have in preventing runs. One of those highlighted was Tampa’s Jose Molina who has developed a reputation for being one of the better pitch framers in the game. Nowhere was this more apparent than during yesterday's infamous Cody Ross at-bat to end the game. Part of it may have had to do with umpire Larry Vanover but according to
FanGraphs
, Molina seemed aware of Vanover's tendencies and took advantage. That or Vanover had somewhere to be after the game.
MLB Handicapping Tips: The impact catchers have on preventing runs
04.16.2012 12:05 PM
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Tags:
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
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MLB Betting Notes: Pittsburgh Pirates continue to thrive at not playing smart baseball
04.16.2012 12:32 PM
Printer Friendly
Just in case you thought the Pittsburgh Pirates organization was moving in the right direction we present to you the chart below. Those are top nine players in terms of plate appearances. You'll notice that in 220 trips to the plate, those nine have a grand total of six walks! As a team, the Pirates have taken 13 base on balls and struck out 73 times in 310 PAs. Note that of their nine games, four were against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw and Matt Cain – premium arms that don't give too many free passes. But even with last year’s small stretch of success early on, the overall philosophy in Pittsburgh simply has not changed. Weaker offensive teams have to find ways to manufacture runs and it starts with plate discipline. The fact that first round pick Pedro Alvarez is batting .051 and has yet to take a walk would never fly on a team like Tampa Bay. Wonder if
these guys
are back in action this year?
Pittsburgh Pirates Batting Stats through 4/16/2011
Player
PA
AB
BB
SO
BA
OBP
Alex Presley
37
35
1
8
0.286
0.306
Andrew McCutchen
37
33
3
4
0.333
0.405
Jose Tabata
31
30
0
6
0.133
0.161
Neil Walker
30
29
1
5
0.172
0.200
Clint Barmes
29
26
0
8
0.115
0.179
Casey McGehee
22
22
0
2
0.318
0.318
Rod Barajas
21
20
1
4
0.050
0.095
Pedro Alvarez
19
19
0
12
0.053
0.053
Garrett Jones
18
18
0
6
0.222
0.222
Results
244
232
6
55
Tags:
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
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MLB Handicapping Tips: The impact catchers have on preventing runs
04.16.2012 12:05 PM
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A few very interesting articles regarding the impact catches can have on "runs saved." Baseball Prospectus took
multiple variables
and ranked them with Tampa Bay's Jose Molina atop a majority of the categories. According to BP, from 2008-11
Molina prevented 103 runs
based on his defense, the throwing out of would be base stealers and perhaps most important, the ability to frame pitches. Even more impressive is that Molina played in about half the amount of games as others on the list.
As we have learned from reading Jonah Keri’s The Extra 2%, the Rays are looking for wins that can be bought at a low price, just as the Moneyball Athletics were. It’s quite likely that the 10-to-20 runs above average Jose Molina could contribute by inducing the umpires to call a few more borderline strikes would come cheaper than an equivalent amount produced by the bat of another catcher.
I’m positive that the Rays are aware of Jose Molina’s framing skill
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-16-2012 with Rob Veno and Erin Rynning
04.16.2012 10:13 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning. Rob broke down tonight's MLB games while Erin took care of the NBA card from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Rob Veno - MLB Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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NBA
MLB
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
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MLB Betting Update: Los Angeles Angels continue to struggle
04.16.2012 07:41 AM
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UPDATE
Slow start for the hyped
Los Angeles Angels
(3-6, -5.50 units) who are set to begin a seven-game home stand against Oakland and Baltimore. One scout said he found it hard to believe the Angels won't be in the mix considering the team's starting pitching depth. But, the bullpen has been shaky as has the plate discipline (.315 OBP).
"They can be pitched to, because they have so many free swingers. They have a lot of guys who like to swing the bat."
Even after adding patient hitters Pujols and Chris Iannetta, the Angels went into Sunday having walked in 6.5 percent of their plate appearances, putting them 24th in the league in that category. Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Morales still haven't taken a walk. Decline, obviously, could also be a factor. The average age of the Nos. 3 through 6 hitters Friday was nearly 35.
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Los Angeles Angels
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MLB Gambling Update: Lincecum tries to bounce back after back-to-back stinkers
04.16.2012 06:39 AM
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UPDATE
Philadelphia
-115 (Halladay) at
San Francisco
(Lincecum) O/U 6
Article on the
current state
of Tim Lincecum. Lincecum (0-1, 12.91 ERA) is off of the shortest start of his career (2.1 IP, 6 runs) and squares off against Roy Halladay tonight.
"I know he's going to be pitching on his 'A' game," Lincecum said, "and it just makes me want to be on my 'A' game even more so. ...
"Eliminating all doubts in myself, that's the biggest thing I can do. Just go out there and have confidence in my stuff because you see guys time and time again (having conviction) in whatever pitch they're throwing that day.
"Whether it's 85 or 95 (mph), you've got to have commitment in it, and I think
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San Francisco Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
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MLB Betting Tips: Declines in velocity can lead to profits
04.16.2012 06:28 AM
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Some notes on a few pitchers who have seen
declines in their velocity
compared to previous years – Stephen Strasburg and Tim Lincecum are slated to start tonight. Strasburg's decline doesn't appear to be an issue but more an attempt to "pace" himself this season. You'll notice than in the blog, we try to emphasize the importance of losses and gains in velocity. A vast majority of pitchers
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Sunday MLB Free Betting Pick: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
04.15.2012 07:50 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Detroit
(Porcello) at -Chicago- (Sale) -105 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Chicago
I'm buying Chicago lefty Chris Sale, especially early in the season when fatigue isn't an issue and teams are getting their first extended look at him. Sale was one of the better middle relievers in the American League last season and is starting to develop some solid off-speed offerings. He looked sharp in his first start, allowing one earned run in 6.2 innings (and a modest 100 pitches). I enjoy watching Detroit's Rick Porcello but he's never going to be a front-of-the-rotation arm. He generally throws strikes and mixes things well, but without big time velocity or an outpitch, he has trouble going entire games without getting into trouble. The White Sox are obviously familiar with Porcello having seen him seven times (6.91 ERA). Let's also not forget that the White Sox are playing some good baseball having won four straight with a chance for the three-game sweep against the Tigers. I think it happens.
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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Andrew Lange
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Bookie tells funny story of taking advantage of not-so-smart baseball bettor
04.13.2012 12:37 PM
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We found this on the website
dealbreaker.com
which looks to have some sort of financial ties. Anyway, they have a series of articles written by "Anonymous Sports Book Manager" that may or may not be true/real, though are pretty entertaining. Here is one on betting baseball and a client named "Mike." Long story short, don't be like "Mike."
Turns out the 20% I’m paying Faithful Assistant is money well spent: he quickly put together that Mike is betting the same teams with both our places. That might be the stupidest piece of betting I’ve ever laid my eyes on. He calls one number, bets the Yanks, then calls the second number and bets the Yanks again. His second price is almost always worse—how much worse, well, it depends on how greedy we feel.
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MLB
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