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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

08.27.2013     10:57 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -120 at St. Louis (Kelly) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I cashed a winner with the Reds – Cardinals Over last night; an 8-6 Slugfest.  And there’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result today.  Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:

“We’ve got excellent weather conditions for a Slugfest – hazy, hot and humid with the wind blowing out.  We’ve got a series history that has seen the winning team score eight runs or more in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, every one of them cashing an Over ticket.  We’ve got a pair of bullpens that have both struggled against the opposing lineup this year.  And we’ve got two capable offenses.  The Cards have scored six or more runs in six of their last nine.  Cinci has cashed only two Unders in their last nine games while Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

College Football Gambling Preview: LSU Tigers vs. TCU Horned Frogs

08.26.2013     12:46 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Marty Otto's Recommendation:
Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN (at Cowboys Stadium)
CRIS Opener:
LSU -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: LSU -4 O/U 50

This is one of the marquee games of college football’s opening week and it’s being played on a monster stage. It’s Saturday night, on ESPN primetime, at massive Cowboys Stadium. The Tigers currently find themselves as 4-point favorites and I wouldn’t expect them to go off at anything less than that number barring a major suspension or injury.

Les Miles enters his ninth season as head coach at LSU. His teams have managed to win at least 10 games in each of the last three years and in six of his previous eight seasons. John Chavis remains as the defensive coordinator. Cam Cameron is the new offensive coordinator after a long stint in the NFL.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson has been at the helm for 13 years Read more

Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC TCU Horned Frogs Big XII Otto Sports

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Records since the All-Star Break

08.26.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I noticed a lot of people are doing web searches for this. The mainstream places should have a page updated daily! Here are Major League Baseball records only counting games played from the All-Star Break through Sunday August 25.


Best in the AL

Detroit 25-11

Texas 21-14

Kansas City 22-15

Tampa Bay 19-13

Cleveland 20-15

Let’s stop there…with the teams who have been playing the best ball in the best league. Detroit hit an extra gear at the Break, and continues to play at a very high level. They’ve clearly been the best team in the AL since then. You have to debate the relative strength of the two leagues to decide if they’re better than the Dodgers team that’s been tearing up the NL. Texas and Tampa Bay have positioned themselves very well to at least make the playoffs with solid runs. What’s amazing about Kansas City is that Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saturday Dress Rehearsals

08.25.2013     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Ten games on the Saturday schedule. One is a very late starter that we’ll save until our next report. Grab some popcorn because this one's going to take awhile. Numbers and notes from the first nine Saturday finishers in market rotation order...

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Washington 30, Buffalo 7

Total Yardage: Buffalo 155, Washington 452

Passing Stats: Buffalo 12-21-0-63, Washington 18-35-0-244

Turnovers: Buffalo 2, Washington 0

Drive Points: Buffalo 0, Washington 17

Stat Score: Buffalo 15, Washington 29

About as ugly from the Buffalo perspective as it could be…

*Kevin Kolb Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Seattle improves to 3-0 ATS with win at Green Bay

08.24.2013     06:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It wasn’t a full dress rehearsal because Green Bay was careful with Aaron Rodgers. It’s like they decided, “Man, Pete Carroll is a MANIAC during preseason games…let’s give Rodgers one series to get points on the board then we’ll call it a night.”

Rodgers played one series…led to team to a field goal…and watched a few more hours of players yelling at each other, pushing, shoving, and drawing penalties. Seattle had 14 penalties for 182 yards. Green Bay had 8 for 69. And, there were several offsetting penalties that didn’t count against either team.

Here are the final numbers…

Seattle 17 (-3), Green Bay 10

Total Yardage: Seattle 362, Green Bay 201

Passing Stats: Seattle 18-28-2-232, Green Bay 18-34-0-126

Turnovers: Seattle 2, Green Bay 2

Drive Points: Seattle 10, Green Bay 7

Stat Score: Seattle 25, Green Bay 12

Quick points:

*Seattle Read more

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Stat Intelligence

Gambler steals money from employer, bets like crazy, and of course loses

08.21.2013     08:05 AM     Printer Friendly
Yeah, this dude is in big trouble.

In a three-hour spree on Bet365, he placed high-value bets on football, baseball and the tennis French Open - including an £11,250 bet on Gilles Simon to beat Roger Federer, which he

He won £27,757 during an England v Brazil football match by betting that it would be 0-0 at half time, before losing £17,757 after betting on Brazil to win the match.

Canadian Football League Week 8 Betting Recap

08.21.2013     07:46 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 8 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter, team-by-team analysis of the four teams that were in action…

Montreal Alouettes (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Give the Montreal Alouettes credit for fighting their asses off against the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Alouettes stepped up and showed some pride after a miserable effort at home in a 38-13 blowout loss to Toronto the previous week. Montreal’s defense played by far its best game of the season. They were dominant by getting pressure on quarterback Darian Durant and doing an admirable job against the explosive running of Kory Sheets who for the first time this season was held below 100 yards. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo suffered a concussion late in the first half and didn’t return. That forced backup Josh Neiswander into the game and he didn’t move the football much at all in the second half against Saskatchewan’s staunch defense. Montreal only a scored one field goal and a fumble return touchdown in the second half. The offense couldn’t generate very much and that allowed the Roughriders to escape with a 24-21 win. It’s Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron

NFL Handicapping: A look back at 2012's sloppiest teams

08.20.2013     01:29 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’ve compiled sloppiness scores for all 32 NFL teams from the 2012 season. I’ve also done the math for all 32 defenses in terms of “forcing sloppiness" from opponents. I’ll post those in a separate report tomorrow to keep this from turning into a long novel that’s hard to digest in one reading.

If you’re new to the site, sloppiness is a quickfire stat that paints a picture of how effectively teams execute. The formula is 5 times the number of giveaways…plus the number of incomplete passes. The lower the number the better because you want to avoid sloppiness. The league average last year was right around 21 for a per-game score. Having a game in the 30’s or higher is embarrassing. Having an AVERAGE near 30 is a very strong indictment of your quarterback and coach.

Let’s start with the sloppiest teams from 2012 and work our way toward the sharpest…

Sloppiest Teams

Detroit Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence


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