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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers

02.06.2013     11:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Iowa +9 at Wisconsin O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Iowa


My clients and I cashed a winner with Iowa as road underdogs at Ohio State last week, when the Hawkeyes rallied back from a 24-point deficit to make things verrrry interesting in the final minute in Columbus before falling short – despite an awful game from leading scorer Roy Devyn Marble. 

We cashed another winner supporting the Hawkeyes on Super Bowl Sunday as they led for extended stretches of the second half, an easy wire-to-wire pointspread cover as double-digit underdogs.  And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Hawkeyes won’t be able to cash another winning bet for us tonight as they travel to Madison to take on a Badgers team that the Hawkeyes have beaten in each of the last three meetings.

Iowa hasn’t lost a game by ten points or more since getting blown out at Michigan on January 6th, hanging tough with quality Big Ten foes like the Ohio Read more


Tags: College Basketball Iowa Hawkeyes Wisconsin Badgers Teddy Covers




College Basketball Handicapping: Wisconsin's crazy season from the charity stripe

02.06.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Through nine Big Ten games, Wisconsin totals are 2-7 O/U. Last season in Big Ten play – with the help of two overtime games – the Badgers actually trended OVER the total at 11-7 O/U. The reason? There were a few but the key was free throws. Everyone is well aware UW’s horrific season from the free throw line (61.5% overall, 56.2% vs. Big Ten). But it’s also their inability to get to the line that is helping their games go under the total. That is until this occurred. Prior to the Illinois game, UW put extra emphasis in practice on trying to draw fouls. Amazingly, they went from not shooting a single free throw vs. Ohio State to 42 vs. Illinois.

Wisconsin rarely if ever strays away from a slow tempo and hard-nosed defense. But with totals routinely in the 115-125 range, free throws, or lack thereof can make a big difference. Take a look these numbers...

2012 (11-7 O/U)
16.7 FT attempts per game vs. Read more


Tags: College Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Andrew Lange




College Basketball Handicapping: Notre Dame falters, Iowa State impresses

02.05.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The struggling Notre Dame Fighting Irish flailed again Monday night in a 63-47 loss at Syracuse as 8-point underdogs. That’s now seven of the last eight games that the Irish have failed to meet market expectations in regulation.

Notre Dame’s Recent Struggles (going back in time from tonight)

Notre Dame (+8.5) lost at Syracuse 63-47 (missed by 7.5 points)

Notre Dame (-6) went overtime at DePaul (missed by 6 points in regulation)

Notre Dame (-8.5) beat Villanova 65-60 (missed by 3.5 points)

Notre Dame (-3.5) won at South Florida 73-65 (only regulation cover in last eight)

Notre Dame (-5.5) lost to Georgetown 63-47 (missed by 10.5 points)

Notre Dame (-11.5) beat Rutgers 69-66 (missed by 8.5 points)

Notre Dame (-7) lost at St. John’s 67-63 (missed by 11 points)

Notre Dame (-8.5) lost to Connecticut 65-58 (missed by 15.5 points)

The market has corrected some…as that early quartet of big Read more


Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish Iowa State Cyclones




MLB Handicapping: Sale one of this year's top Verducci Effect candidates

02.05.2013     06:20 AM     Printer Friendly
Here a list of this year's Verducci Effect candidates. The biggest increase in workload came from Chicago's Chris Sale who was in and out of the rotation at times due to arm difficulties. Washington’s Stephen Strasburg also made the list despite being shut down late in the season.

2013 Verducci Effect
Pitcher, Team
Age
2012 Innings Pitched
Increase*
Chris Sale, White Sox
23
192
121
Jarrod Parker, A's
23
214/ 2/3
78
Jose Quintana, White Sox
23
185
63
Joe Kelly, Cardinals
24
187
55
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
23
159 1/3
36
Chris Rusin, Cubs
25
173
34 1/3
Matt Harvey, Mets
23
169 1/3
33 2/3
Alex Cobb, Rays
24
177 2/3
33
Felix Doubront, Red Sox
24
161
31 2/3
Dan Straily, A's
23
191 1/3
30 2/3
Andrew Werner, Padres
25
166 2/3
30 1/3


In terms of last year's list, as predicted, as handful had injuries or suffered some form of regression.

Derek Holland, Dylan Axelrod, Jaime Garcia, Liam Hendricks, Eric Surkamp, Chris Schwinden, Daniel Hudson, Zach Stewart and Michael Pineda.

Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, and Jeremy Hellickson all suffered slight regressions – depending on what numbers you go by – but for the most part remained healthy. Texas' Matt Harrison however was lights out though as Verducci points out, pitchers with bigger Read more


Tags: MLB




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's best against the spread

02.04.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s wild Baltimore victory, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks.  I’ve been writing game previews for ESPN.com/Insider for the last month, but I’ve yet to write a true ‘college basketball overview’ column for any publication so far this season.  That streak ends here.

I’m going take a look at the very best pointspread ‘regular board’ teams in the country in this week’s column.  The list of ATS juggernauts is likely to surprise many people due to its diversity.  Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs.  Look no further than the single best ATS team in the nation so far this season. 

I’ll wager that less than a dozen people in the country knew that Fordham is the #1 ATS team in all of DI basketball this year; 14-5 against the number.  The Rams are 6-16 SU, just 2-5 in Atlantic-10 play.  Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31...Ravens Win Super Bowl XLVII

02.04.2013     06:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Congratulations to all who won last night. Sincere condolences to all who lost (unless you did so with arrogant posturing through the week, then you got what you deserved!). Let’s crunch the numbers…

Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31

Total Yardage: Baltimore 367, San Francisco 468

Yards-Per-Play: Baltimore 5.2, San Francisco 7.8

Rushing Yards: Baltimore 93, San Francisco 182

Passing Line: Baltimore 22-33-0-274, San Francisco 16-28-1-286

Turnovers: Baltimore 1, San Francisco 2

Third Downs: Baltimore 56%, San Francisco 22%

Sloppiness: Baltimore 16, San Francisco 22

Drive Points: Baltimore 10, San Francisco 13

Cheap Points: Baltimore 24, San Francisco 18

(If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more….sloppiness is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes).

Some Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




Super Bowl XLVII Gambling: Let's Talk About the 49ers' Defense

02.02.2013     09:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m starting to hear a lot of chatter about how San Francisco’s defense is going to be the deciding factor in Sunday’s Super Bowl meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. While the team certainly has a top-notch defense, it may not be quite as dominating as you were thinking.

It’s easy to remember the highlights from the past season…where the Niners embarrassed teams like the Jets, Bills, and even the Bears in a big TV game. But, when facing elite offenses, it’s been a slightly different story.

Here’s what opposing offenses from PLAYOFF teams did against San Francisco’s defense this season starting with their season opener at Green Bay, and ending with their NFC Championship win over Atlanta. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored or allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. The average this year was around 13 per offense per game. Note that the chart below deletes non-offensive scoring (for example...Green Bay had a Read more


Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Howard hurt, Lakers falter late in loss to Suns

01.31.2013     12:14 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

For most of the evening, the Los Angeles Lakers looked to be well on their way to winning their second game in two nights, further establishing that they were in warrior mode in their attempt to chase down the #8 seed in the Western Conference brackets.

Midway through the fourth quarter, Dwight Howard re-aggravated his labrum injury trying to score in traffic. He left the game with the Lakers leading 78-73. Phoenix would win the rest of the game 19-8, striking the Lakers playoff hopes with a lightning bolt in the process…

Phoenix 92, LA Lakers 86

2-Point Percentage: Lakers 49%, Phoenix 49%

3-Point Shooting: Lakers 8/27, Phoenix 3/12

Free Throws: Lakers 12/19, Phoenix 13/15

1’s and 2’s: Lakers 62, Phoenix 83

Rebounds: Lakers 46, Phoenix 36

Turnovers: Lakers 19, Phoenix 11

You can see the two biggest issues for the Lakers were scoring differential inside the arc (Michael Beasley Read more


Tags: NBA Los Angeles Lakers Stat Intelligence




College Basketball Handicapping: Close games in the Big East, blowouts in the SEC

01.30.2013     01:28 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are a few conference-only statistics from Ken Pom that break down home courts (SU), close games (4 points or less and/or OT), and blowouts (19 points or more). There are 33 conferences if you include independent. Below are the top 10 conferences and rank. In terms of home court, the ACC has been the strongest at 30-11 SU. The Missouri Valley Conference is also north of 70%. The Big East has had the highest percentage of close game at 30.9% with the A-10 not far behind at 27.3%. Interesting that despite its slow pace (63.4 possessions per game) and low scoring affairs, only six of 46 Big Ten conference games have been decided by four points or less or went to overtime. When it comes to blowouts, the SEC is top dog with 25% of its games decided by 19 points or more – in large part because of Florida who has five of the 11.
 
Big Ten
Home Court: 26-20, 56.5% (23)
Close Game: 6 of 46, 13.0% (28)
Blowout: 9 of 46, 19.6% (7)

Big East
Home Court: 30-25, 54.5% (26)
Close Game: 17 of 55, 30.9% (2)
Blowout: 5 of 55, 9.1% Read more


Tags: College Basketball




College Basketball Gambling: Kentucky impresses in win over Ole Miss

01.30.2013     11:17 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s been a down year for Kentucky so far, at least in terms of preseason expectations. Too many pundits and fans were assuming head coach John Calipari would just reload every year and coast to a championship with future NBAers. The Wildcats are finally starting to play to its talent this season. Tuesday’s 87-74 win at #19 Mississippi as a 3-point underdog was particularly impressive.

Kentucky 87, #19 Mississippi 74

2-Point Percentage: Kentucky 61%, Ole Miss 33%

3-Point Shooting: Kentucky 8/23, Ole Miss 5/16

Free Throws: Kentucky 23/37, Ole Miss 13/20

1’s and 2’s: Kentucky 63, Ole Miss 59

Rebounds: Kentucky 42, Ole Miss 44

Turnovers: Kentucky 9, Ole Miss 7

(Kentucky 22-20, Ole Miss 25-24)

(The stat boxes will include parenthetical references to the computer ranking entering tonight made publicly available by Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin)

Wow…61% to 33% on Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Ole Miss Rebels Stat Intelligence



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