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March

26

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College Football Handicapping: Conference Championship lines move off of key numbers

12.02.2013     06:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Early bettors got a jump on some key numbers for Saturday's conference championships. CRIS opened Auburn as a 3-point favorite vs. Missouri but it has since moved to -2/-1.5. In the PAC-12 Arizona State opened -3 vs. Stanford (game in Tempe) and was bet up to -3.5. The Ohio State-Michigan State line has bounced around with the Buckeyes opening -6.5 but down to -5.5. Fresno State hosts Utah State for the Mountain West Championship. The Bulldogs opened -3.5 but were bet down to -3 with juice. Florida State is north of a four touchdown favorite over Duke for the ACC title game. No line yet on C-USA's Marshall-Rice matchup. And on Friday, undefeated Northern Illinois is currently 3-point chalk vs. Bowling Green (game in Detroit).




Tags: College Football




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 13

11.28.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had time to put together a larger preview report than normal. What you see below are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get as clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.

Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by turnover differential in the second parenthesis…

Thanksgiving Games

Green Bay: 16.3 on offense, 14.7 on defense (30-24) (-5 turnovers)

Detroit: 17.5 on offense, 15.6 on defense (26-17) (-7 Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

11.24.2013     08:16 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York Jets at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Baltimore -3 O/U 40.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -3.5 O/U 39.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore -6
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under

The New York Jets fly into Baltimore looking to extend their trend of alternating wins and losses.  While their defense looks up to task it won’t be easy for the offense.  Amazingly the Jets have gone OVER the total in 7 of their 10 games despite ranking 31st in points scored.  The offense led by quarterback Geno Smith has struggled throughout the campaign, while ranking 29th in passing offense.  Making matters much tougher for the offense will be Baltimore’s defense and the weather.  The Ravens defense is still capable, and tough to pass against with a talented secondary and ability to pressure the quarterback.  The weather forecast will make it difficult for both Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New York Jets Erin Rynning




Update: Dan Mullen no longer has nice rack according to reliable sources

11.22.2013     02:07 PM     Printer Friendly
Well, which one is it, Internet?

copy_mullen_2.JPG









Dan Mullen has a nice rack, is a horrible coach according to reliable sources

11.22.2013     01:50 PM     Printer Friendly


Tags: College Football Mississippi State Bulldogs SEC




College Football Handicapping: Week 13 Injury Report

11.21.2013     04:26 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Utah quarterback Travis Wilson is out for the rest of the season and his career could be in jeopardy after he sustained a concussion two weeks ago in a 20-19 home loss to Arizona St. Wilson finished 2013 with a 16-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Utes’ sophomore Adam Schulz started in last week’s 44-21 loss at Oregon, completing 13-of-30 passes for 181 yards with one TD and one interception. In four games this year, Schulz has connected on just 35-of-75 throws (46.7%) for 428 yards with a 2-2 TD-INT ratio.

Florida QB Tyler Murphy is ‘questionable’ vs. Georgia Southern due to a shoulder injury. Making his first career start and taking his first snap at the collegiate level last week, Sklyer Mornhinweg completed 10-of-13 passes for 107 yards in a 19-14 loss at South Carolina. UF didn’t put too much on his plate with most of his throws consisting of screen passes and short patterns. However, the redshirt freshman should be credited for being accurate and only making one mistake, an interception on the final drive with just over one minute remaining. The Gators are favored by 28 against the Eagles.

Missouri QB James Franklin is Read more



Tags: College Football Brian Edwards




College Football Gambling: Miami's defense headed in wrong direction

11.21.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Virginia at Miami (FL) -20 O/U 58

It's been rough of late for Miami's defense having allowed 41, 42, and 48 its last three games (0-3 SU/ATS, average loss 21 ppg). In conference play, the Hurricanes rank dead last (14th) in total defense at 478.5 ypg allowed.


“I don’t think we’re doing a good job of executing and playing fundamental football,” safety A.J. Highsmithsaid. “If it’s not one thing, it’s another. Sometimes it has been coverage issues on the back end, and sometimes it is poor tackles on all three levels of the defense. It just feels like it is something here and something there that are resulting in big chunk plays for the other team.”



Of course following ESPN's 30-for-30 documentary “The U” former players feel even more obligated than before to Read more



Tags: College Football Miami (FL) Hurricanes Virginia Cavaliers ACC




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 12

11.20.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was able to put together updated Drive Point averages early this week. The math is so easy when almost everyone’s played exactly 10 games! I also wanted to include strength of schedule data for each team as well, because that can pollute the numbers a smidge. I usually go to Sagarin for those (USA Today). And, his are usually in the neighborhood of Football Outsiders to. Figured I’d grab those too. Then, I can get any feng shui stuff out of my system now so I don’t have to write up a full report.

The numbers you see below are per-game Drive Point averages for every offense and defense. Drive Points are those scored and allowed on Drives of 60 yards or more. All other scoring is excluded (shorter drives, defensive points, special teams points). We’re looking to capture as best as possible each team’s ability to drive the field for points on offense, while preventing opponents from doing so.

In parenthesis, I’ve put the strength of schedule Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Basketball Betting Free Play: East Carolina Pirates at Duke Blue Devils

11.19.2013     12:37 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
East Carolina at Duke -23.5
Recommendation: Duke


East Carolina knows it is lucky to be in this spot after rallying back from 17 down in the second half to clip Norfolk State by two. I give credit to the Pirates for fighting back but a vast majority of their win had to do with Norfolk's shortcomings (2-of-14 from 3, 10-of-20 from the line including multiple misses in crunch time). No question ECU put forth a ton of effort in that comeback win and with no rest they must turnaround and face a Duke squad that has had no trouble handling lesser competition. The Blue Devils have wins by 34, 33, and 36 on their home court. And to me, ECU is not far removed personnel wise to that of Davidson, Florida Atlantic, and UNC Asheville. Also note that as Jeff Lebo has built up the ECU program, he's been pretty active is staying away from top-tier competition. In 2011, they faced Clemson (No. 22 Ken Pom) and last year lost by six at North Carolina (No. 32). With the exception of Memphis in C-USA, those are arguably the two toughest teams ECU has faced in three-plus years – and this year’s version of Duke is far better than all three. And East Carolina was Read more



Tags: College Basketball East Carolina Pirates Duke Blue Devils Andrew Lange



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