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NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming

01.18.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.

New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.

For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence




Sportsbooks and bettors react to San Francisco 49ers, Kaepernick

01.18.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco -4 at Atlanta O/U 48.5

Last week, with minimal line shopping, you could have bet the San Francisco 49ers -3 (+100/+105) at home against Green Bay. That seemed like legalized stealing considering as of this morning only a few sportsbooks are offering the 49ers -3.5 on the road at Atlanta for Sunday’s NFC Championship.

 

"We all knew they were pretty good," said Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, public relations director for William Hill and its 75 Nevada sportsbooks. "Now you throw this kid in there who is energizing the process, and it just means more money on the 49ers. And rightfully so. How high can it go? I don't know."

"We act much quicker on these things than we once did," Vaccaro said. "We have the whole world betting these games, so you have to make them Read more



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons




NBA Handicapping: Inverted Thinking on NBA Back-to-Backs

01.17.2013     11:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

When I first started playing around with fatigue situations in the NBA eons ago, my kneejerk reaction was to assume that tired teams would hang tough for awhile, before fading from fatigue in the fourth quarter. I had been assuming they’d rejuvenate in the hours between games, then run out of gas in crunch time.

In actual practice, the world was much more complicated than that. But, it was a complication that got rewarded once first quarter and first half propositions became more readily available.

Tonight’s results show you that, counter-intuitively, fatigue can be something that shows up early in a game, before being overcome by motivated teams with youth or deep benches.

There were fully SEVEN teams tonight in the NBA dealing with back-to-back disadvantages. By that, I mean that they played Tuesday night while their opponents were resting. All seven failed to cover their first quarter spreads.

*Indiana lost as a favorite in Orlando 22-17

*Toronto Read more


Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Why The Atlanta Falcons are +4

01.17.2013     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There’s a growing chorus in the handicapping/betting world that the line has over-adjusted in Sunday’s San Francisco/Atlanta matchup for the NFC Championship…with little apparent justification for the current number of San Francisco -4.

Let’s review a few keys.

*Sharps aren’t betting the 49ers at -4. But, they sure loved them at a field goal or less. It’s hard to know for sure from the outside how much of the moves beyond the three can be linked to sharp sentiment or square sentiment (the public). What’s clear is that sharps weren’t thinking the line should be pick-em or -1. Sharps had the 49ers at least 6 or 6.5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps stopped betting the Niners at a number that represented 7 points better on a neutral field.

*The advanced analytic stuff I’ve seen around the web supports that passion at an affordable price. Measures are showing that San Francisco has a much better offense when you adjust for Read more


Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers Stat Intelligence




Proposed Las Vegas stadium an ideal fit for NFL games/team

01.17.2013     06:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
So Las Vegas wants to build some sort of "Mega Events Center" similar to that of Cowboys Stadium. If built, said facility would obviously have the capabilities to host football games. What's funny is that those backing the plan aren't asking the NFL to do something logical like pull the plug on Jacksonville or go the expansion route. Instead, they're starting small, like playing host to a preseason game, or the pro bowl. If that works and Bill Belichick and Tom Brady aren’t involved in some elaborate point shaving scandal, then maybe the NFL would warm up to the idea of placing  a franchise in Sin City. The odds on that happening? Not good, according to some.



Tags: Las Vegas NFL




College Basketbal Betting Free Play: NC State Wolfpack at Maryland Terrapins

01.16.2013     02:43 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NC State at Maryland -1.5 O/U 149
Recommendation: Over


Maryland has not been shy about its desire to play up-tempo with both home games in ACC play hitting the 70 possessions mark. And tonight, the Terps have talked about making a change at the point guard position, putting Nick Faust in place of the offensively inept Pe'Shon Howard.


The Terps are searching for a spark, and Faust may just oblige, allowing Maryland to work a little faster offensively. Since Faust doesn’t know all the set plays at point guard, teammate Logan Aronhalt said, the Terps might adjust with more quick-hitters, searching for easy, fast buckets.



NC State is in no way an elite level defense. In half of the Wolfpack's games, they've allowed 1.03 points per possession or more. Check out Read more


Tags: College Basketball NC State Wolfpack Maryland Terrapins Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting: Fresno State leaning heavily on freshmen in tough Mountain West

01.16.2013     12:02 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There have been times this season Fresno State's men's basketball team has had three and even four freshmen on the floor at the same time. That’s a tough way to go in the Mountain West, which is rated the second (Sagarin) or third (RPIratings.com) toughest conference in the country.

Coach Rodney Terry knows this, often using the refrain, "It's not going to happen overnight." The youth and inexperience may have cost FSU a win in the final minutes at No. 16 San Diego State last week.

Four freshmen have logged a total of 1,010 minutes already and it could be more, considering guard Marvelle Harris (373 minutes) has played 20 minutes or less four times, center Robert Upshaw (234 minutes) missed the first three games coming back from a knee injury, point guard Aaron Anderson (224 minutes) didn't make his first start until the 12th game of the season, and forward/center Tanner Giddings (179 minutes) did not play in one game and logged less than 10 minutes in five others.

Fresno State is getting more than twice as many minutes from freshman than any other Mountain West school except for UNLV. While 82.4% of the Rebels freshman minutes have been Read more


Tags: College Basketball Fresno State Bulldogs Rob Veno Mountain West




College Basketball Betting: Illinois State winless in Missouri Valley play

01.16.2013     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Illinois State at Wichita State -9.5

It's been a baffling season for Illinois State. Close losses to Northwestern and Louisville, a road win over Dayton, and now five straight losses to open Missouri Valley play. All five contests were fairly close; decided by 2, 7, 10, 7, and 5 points. Now it doesn't look like Tyler Brown (15.3 ppg) will play. According to Sports Options, he'll remain suspended for tonight's game at Wichita State. And to make matters worse, the Shockers are off a rare loss and welcome back the services of their best player, Carl Hall, who missed time due to a thumb injury.




Tags: College Basketball Illinois State Redbirds Wichita State Shockers




College Basketball Handicapping: Scoring has been down nation-wide

01.16.2013     07:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It looks like scoring in college basketball is on pace for an historical low this season. Since 1952, only once have we seen the national average below 68 ppg. We're currently at that mark with it expected to dip now that conference play is underway. There are some theories. One would be departures to the NBA – something that has been taking place for years. Next, and this makes a little more sense, is technology with teams able to quickly and efficiently put together film on the opposition. Due to the crazy totals market it's hard to get an accurate number on nation-wide results. One site claims 53.5% of games have gone under the total in regulation.


"There's so much more film now than there was when I first started in the mid 1990s," Groce said Monday on the Big Ten teleconference. "I could go right now to the office and say, 'I want every underneath out-of-bounds play that Northwestern ran in the last 30 games,' and my video guy could get me that in 15 minutes.

"There are a Read more



Tags: College Basketball




College Basketball Betting: Colorado holds players-only meeting

01.16.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado at Washington -2

Since the start of PAC-12 play, the hot topic for Colorado has been its supposed lack of "mental toughness." The Buffaloes had it during regulation against Arizona but lost it in overtime. It was nowhere to be seen in the loss to Arizona State whereas against Southern Cal, present and accounted for. UCLA at home? Not the last five minutes as the Bruins snuck away with a 78-75 win in Boulder. We’re detecting a pattern – win and we’re tough, lose and we’re a JV squad. Now we're having a players-only meeting to combat this supposed lack of testicular fortitude. From our perspective we see a team that is capable but very young and inconsistent, hence four straight relatively close games; three of which happen to go the way of the opposition. If Colorado doesn’t get scammed Read more


Tags: College Basketball Colorado Buffaloes Washington Huskies



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