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Teddy Covers: Week 8 AFC Betting News and Notes Part II
11.01.2011 05:44 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. Today: Part II of AFC Tidbits from Week 8. You can read Part I
right here
.
Jacksonville
Let's start giving some credit to Jack Del Rio's defense. This is a bottom-5 offense – lots and lots of three-and-outs. The Jags don’t have much explosive big play ability, and they’re ranked dead last in the NFL in numerous categories including yards per play and trips to the red zone. The defense has been up against it all year, trying to keep the Jags hanging around, in position to steal one late. Basically, they've accomplished that task, holding half of their opponents to 17 points or less. It was more of the same here – stifling receivers, stuffing the run, getting pressure on
Read more
Tags:
NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Teddy Covers
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College Football Odds: Iowa State on upset alert against Kansas?
10.31.2011 01:07 PM
Printer Friendly
Kansas
at
Iowa State
-14.5
Kansas snaps six-game losing streak with upset over Iowa State
. Wouldn't be a shocking headline come Sunday considering the craziness of the Big XII this season. Texas Tech notched a monumental upset at Oklahoma and followed it up with a
41-7 home loss
to at-the-time 3-4 Iowa State. The Cyclones now must turn around and get up for a 2-6 Kansas squad. The Jayhawks appears nearly unbackable at this point, especially after last week in which they were held to 46 totals yards in a 43-0 loss at Texas. Still, the Cyclones find themselves in a
precarious spot
as over a two touchdown favorite this weekend. They've been favored in only one game this year; a 20-19 win
Read more
Tags:
College Football
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Big XII
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Teddy Covers: Week 8 AFC Betting News and Notes Part I
10.31.2011 09:16 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. Today: Part I of AFC Tidbits from Week 8. Part II will be posted tomorrow.
Baltimore
Why is this team being ranked in the Top 5 in many NFL Power Ratings? I'm not seeing a Super Bowl contender here, on either side of the football. Let's start with Joe Flacco, who just doesn't seem have much chemistry with his receivers. This offensive line isn't giving Flacco time to throw downfield – the wide receivers are basically non-factors in this offense right now. Anquan Boldin had a huge second half against his former team, but big games from Boldin have been the exception, not the rule. Defensively, this pass rush is strong, but I've still got all kinds of questions about the Ravens ability to cover receivers downfield when they don't get to the opposing quarterback. Why on earth is an aging plodder like Ricky Williams taking carries from
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Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Lack of continuity with safeties impacts Cover-2 defenses
10.31.2011 08:03 AM
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Interesting article on
Cover-2 defenses and safeties
. The Chicago Bears recently cut veteran Chris Harris – a common occurrence as few teams if any who utilize the Cover-2 have any sort of continuity year-to-year (sometimes game-to-game) within the position.
This is Smith’s signature defense, and since he became the Bears’ head coach, they’ve started 15 different safeties in eight seasons. They’ve changed starting free safeties 23 times and starting strong safeties 27 times in less than eight seasons.
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NFL Handicapping: Betting the key number of 3
10.31.2011 05:55 AM
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Many public bettors often see an NFL favorite of -3 and feel just fine laying the points. What bettors need to understand is the actual results of laying or taking 3 points. If you lay -3 you’re team obviously has to win by four points for you to cash your ticket! Seems simple, but many bettors seem to lay the -3 feeling they will accept a push rather than buying off the -3 point line.
Over the past 20 seasons, just over 16% of NFL games land on the key number of 3. That’s the most common number in scoring results, with 7 points being the next most likely result; approximately 9% of all NFL games finish with a 7-point margin. A 10-point occurs approximately 6% of the time with 4- and 6-point margins in close to 5% of all NFL games. So, with a database of 20+ years in place, here are the results for NFL games that are lined at 3 points.
NFL home favorites of 3 points are 209-224-47 ATS
NFL home underdogs of 3 points are 157-177-36 ATS
Keep in mind, this is also the only number in which buying on or off the 3 is profitable. In other words, instead of laying -3 points, buy to -2.5 and you would actually show a
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NFL Handicapping: Arizona defense now in tune with entire playbook
10.28.2011 11:16 AM
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Arizona
at
Baltimore
-12.5 O/U 43.5
Some helpful/interesting/somewhat amusing information on
Arizona's defense
. Early in the season, the defense was unable to grasp first-year coordinator Ray Horton's schemes so he was forced to "scale things back". As recent as last week, only 30 percent of the play calling was supposedly in place. But reports now say that Horton is ready to reopen the entire playbook for Sunday's game at Baltimore. The Ravens are going to be pretty eager to put some points on the board after laying an egg (7 points, 142 yards) on MNF against the Jaguars.
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NFL Handicapping: Rogers Centre offers little homefield edge for Buffalo Bills
10.27.2011 08:03 AM
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Washington
at
Buffalo
-6 O/U 45.5
Note that Sunday’s game between the Redskins and Bills will take place at Toronto’s Rogers Centre. According to Buffalo safety George Wilson, the venue provides
little to no homefield edge
, something the Bills have taken advantage of this season with a 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS mark at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Wilson later hinted that the no opener container law is going to put a major hamper on the pregame festivities. It has typically been a Sportsmemo policy to deduct a half point to the line on games in which no booze is allowed outside the stadium. The Bills are 0-3 SU north of the border over the last three seasons.
“You see just as many jerseys for the opposing team as you do for the Bills. They cheer for any big play, regardless of which team makes it.”
“I
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Washington Redskins
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College Football Wednesday Free Pick: UConn Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers
10.26.2011 12:26 PM
Rob Veno
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Connecticut
at
Pittsburgh
Recommendation: Over 21 first half
Going to buck the conventional wisdom that Pittsburgh running back Ray Graham will be fed a steady diet of the ball from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. Head coaches always like to fix what's broken and head coach Todd Graham's spread passing system has come to a screeching halt recently. Expect Graham, who has had extra time to prepare, to notice how poorly the Huskies have fared against similar spread passing teams Western Michigan and West Virginia. Obviously quarterback Tino Sunseri is not WMU's Alex Carder and he doesn't have the weapons WVA's Geno Smith has, but those teams did expose Connecticut's secondary (again without top CB Wreh-Wilson tonight) to the tune of 1,031 total yards and 81 points.
Pitt's offensive line has been a mess in pass protection but quick hitting patterns and enough time for a few shots over the top should be expected here. Graham is always a threat
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NFL Handicapping: New York Giants rested and ready following bye week
10.25.2011 11:27 AM
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Miami
at
New York Giants
-10 O/U 43
Currently atop the NFC East at 4-2, the New York Giants seem to be in good spirits following their
bye week
. After Sunday's home tilt against Miami, the G-Men endure a brutal stretch: at New England, at San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, at New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, and at Dallas. Under head coach Tom Coughlin, the Giants are 4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS and 5-2 O/U off of a bye.
“[We’re] coming off a big win [and] it was good to get away from things,” Manning said. “But we have to make sure we come back from things refreshed, legs under us ready to continue to work hard, have a great week of preparation and get ready for Miami.”
“Hopefully [future success] will be because we’ve come back re-focused and ready to go. If anything, the preparation should
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Teddy Covers: Week 7 NFC Betting News and Notes Part II
10.25.2011 07:05 AM
Teddy Covers
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Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. Today: NFC Tidbits from Week 7 Part II. If you missed Part I,
click here
.
Detroit
The opposition was called for 14 false start penalties in the two games coming into this ballgame, and the crowd was a factor again today. The combination of the best defensive front in the NFL and a suddenly strong home field has made it increasingly difficult for opposing teams to get their snaps off without a hitch. These false start penalties matter and they’re not something that will be readily apparent from looking at a box score. Detroit’s defensive front has 'Fearsome Foursome', 'Steel Curtain' or 'Purple People Eater' capabilities – quite possibly one of the best defensive
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Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks
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