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College Basketball Free Betting Pick: Cal Poly Mustangs at Cal-Northridge Matadors
02.15.2012 12:29 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cal Poly -6.5 at Cal-Northridge O/U 130.5
Recommendation: Over
Despite playing at a super slow pace, seven of Cal Poly's 12 Big West games have topped 130 points. One of the reasons behind that is the lack of quality defenses. Only two teams (Long Beach and Riverside) allow less than a point per possession in conference play. And despite its label of being defensive minded, Cal Poly has really been nothing more than average at stopping Big West opponents (102.1 ppp allowed, 5th out of 9 teams). The Big West is split into teams that play fast (Long Beach, Fullerton, Irvine, Northridge and Davis) and teams that prefer a slower tempo (Santa Barbara, Poly, Pacific and Riverside). Against the "faster" teams, Cal Poly's games produced scores of 105, 140, 116, 147, 154, 132, 144 and 151. It was contests against the "slower" teams that have kept CP’s pace number low and their defense appearing respectable (game scores: 115, 113, 112 and 106). Northridge plays up-tempo and sports the worst defense in the league. And with the exception of the 100-54 loss to Cal Poly back in late January, the Matadors somehow, someway always find a way
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College Basketball
Cal Poly Mustangs
Cal-Northridge Matadors
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Murray State was destine to eventually lose
02.15.2012 12:01 PM
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Good blog post from ken Pomeroy on the
variance in college basketball
, in particular Murray State. According to Pomeroy's numbers, the Racers were never better than a 50% shot to go undefeated – a far cry from what ESPN was spewing out of its mouth. Essentially, they are a good team – the best in the OVC – but they were eventually going to lose and will inevitably lose another game or two before the end of the season.
The thing is, Murray never reached a point during the season where they were better than a 50% proposition to go unbeaten in conference. You play enough games in which you are heavily favored, and you are going to lose eventually. Put more precisely, a team that plays ten games as a 90% favorite is expected to lose once during that span, and the Racers have played a lot of such games this season, including the game against Tennessee State.
There’s lots of unexplained variance in a college basketball game. The Vegas line has long been proven to be the best predictor of outcomes, and while it has the reputation among some
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College Basketball
Murray State Racers
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Sports Betting Podcast 2-15-2012 with Rob Veno and Erin Rynning
02.15.2012 09:59 AM
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Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning. Rob broke down the College Basketball card while Erin Rynning tackled the entire NBA slate from a betting perspective.
Today's segments
Rob Veno - College Basketball Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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College Basketball
NBA
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
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NCAA Basketball Gambling: New Mexico favored at San Diego State
02.15.2012 07:40 AM
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New Mexico
-1 at
San Diego State
O/U 129.5
First place on the line in the
Mountain West
tonight as New Mexico (20-4, 6-2 MWC) travels to San Diego State (20-4, 6-2). The Aztecs won in Albuquerque, 75-70, on January 18.
“
It’s a big revenge game,” Hardeman said. “But just to be playing against San Diego State is going to be big for us because they’re ranked in the top 25 and I feel this is a game we need.”
“The league changes,” Lobo head coach Steve Alford said. “Three weeks ago, this wasn’t what the league looked like. Three weeks ago we were next to last.”
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New Mexico Lobos
San Diego State Aztecs
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College Basketball Handicapping: Strong late season situationals
02.15.2012 06:49 AM
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Submitted by
This is the time of the college basketball season when many of our long term positive profiles and strong situations develop. Second meets, qualified revenge situations, last home games and additional profiles and parameters produce profit year after year. Tonight we have another top-rated Big Drive play that fits one of our proven profiles and situations with additional subsets and parameters that guide us to our selection. When we combine some of these late season situations with positive statistical parameters in our match-up evaluation, we have a play worth full support.
As you look over a college card and dig deeper into the surrounding situations and match-up, here’s something to guide you for future winners. Keep in mind some of the information I discuss is proprietary, so I don’t give out all the details in regards to exact ATS results or perhaps a specific subset or situation in addition to our base premise and profile. After all, I do get paid for providing positive pointspread prognosis and winning information.
But here we go. At this time of the season, teams are playing second meets or opponents for the second time. Winning teams
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College Basketball
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College Basketball Betting Trends: Tennessee State's 2nd half domination
02.14.2012 01:35 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
I happen to stumble upon this tidbit with Tennessee State who has won seven straight and is currently in second place of the Ohio Valley Conference at 10-4. The Tigers have shown a strong trend of failing to show up early and playing out of their minds after the break. They've held a halftime lead in only seven of their 14 league games which has resulted in a dismal 3-11 ATS first half mark. But for whatever reason, TSU has played like gods in the second halves of these games, outscoring all but one of their 14 opponents by a combined tally of 610-484 – good for an amazing 12-2 ATS. That is an average second half score of 43.6-34.6. In the first half, they were outscored by a combined 46 points. Tonight, Tennessee State plays host to Jacksonville State. Play accordingly.
Tennessee State 1st Half/2nd Half Betting Trends as of 2/14/2012
Opponent
Halftime Score
TSU 1st Half ATS
Final Score
TSU 2nd Half ATS
Tennessee Tech
TSU 28, TTU 27
Loss
TSU 68, TTU 53
Win
Murray State
MSU 40, TSU 33
Loss
TSU 72, MSU 29
Win
Southeast Missouri
SEMO 35, TSU 30
Loss
TSU 75, SEMO 72
Win
Austin Peay
TSU 29, APSU 20
Win
TSU 77, ASPU 57
Win
Eastern Kentucky
EKU 38, TSU 32
Loss
TSU 91, EKU 85 OT
Win
Tennessee-Martin
TSU 26, UTM 25
Loss
TSU 72, UTM 59
Win
Eastern Illinois
TSU 29, EIU 23
Win
TSU 55, EIU 46
Win
Austin Peay
TSU 29, APSU 28
Win
APSU 69, TSU 63
Loss
SIU-Edwardsville
SIUE 24, TSU 17
Loss
TSU 52, SIUE 49
Loss
Morehead State
TSU 34, MOR 32
Loss
TSU 77, MOR 72
Win
Jacksonville State
JSU 39, TSU 22
Loss
JSU 72, TSU 65
Win
Tennessee Tech
TTU 42, TSU 36
Loss
TTU 92, TSU 86
Win
Eastern Kentucky
EKU 41, TSU 17
Loss
EKU 73, TSU 68
Win
Tennessee-Martin
TSU 41, UTM 35
Loss
TSU 83, UTM 67
Win
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College Basketball
Tennessee State Tigers
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Basketball Betting: Lack of defense the source of Mississippi State's struggles
02.14.2012 12:10 PM
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Mississippi State
-1 at
LSU
O/U 134
Mississippi State is back to playing wildly inconsistent basketball with a 4-3 record (2-5 ATS) over the last month. Keeping the Bulldogs from becoming the class of the SEC West is their
poor defensive performances
. In SEC play, MSU is allowing 71.8 ppg. During last year's SEC regular season, MSU allowed over a point per possession in half of their games. This season, six of their last seven opponents have topped that mark and the Bulldogs ranks 11th or 12th (out of 12 SEC teams) in defensive efficiency, effective FG%, and 3-point% defense. An even worse stat is the paltry 79 turnovers forced in 10 games. These deficiencies are someone mystifying considering that from a personnel standpoint – both on the perimeter and in the paint
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
LSU Tigers
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Sports Betting Podcast 2-14-2012 with Rob Veno, Erin Rynning and Sammy P
02.14.2012 10:25 AM
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Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno, Erin Rynning and Sammy P. Rob broke down the College Basketball card while Erin Rynning tackled the entire NBA slate from a betting perspective. Sammy P took care of the NHL.
Today's segments
Rob Veno - College Basketball Every Game on the Board
Erin Rynning - NBA Every Game on the Board
Sammy P - NHL Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
College Basketball
NBA
NHL
Rob Veno
Erin Rynning
Sammy P
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NCAA Basketball Gambling: 16 teams remain undefeated at home
02.14.2012 07:47 AM
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Submitted by
Two weeks ago I provided
blog and chart
showing college basketball’s undefeated home teams. At the time (Feb. 1), there were 28 teams that were undefeated on their home courts (including non-board teams). I’ve updated the information below and you can see there are now 16 undefeated home teams. Every season I discuss and post information on the importance of home courts in college basketball and mention how teams perform with a home/road dichotomy. Understanding home court advantage and the situations surrounding the current contests is important in helping you isolate winners.
However, while home court strength plays an important role to many teams, it’s also essential to recognize line adjustments along with weaker teams and home courts. The ability to understand scheduling and motivational situations including second meets and meaningful revenge is also part of the pointspread prognosis and handicap at this time of year. I have many historically strong situations that provide plenty of profit at this time of
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College Basketball Betting Alert: Alabama and Florida shorthanded for matchup
02.14.2012 07:32 AM
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Florida
-3.5 at
Alabama
O/U 133.5
Not a lot of positives for either side as Florida travels to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama. For the Crimson Tide, head coach Anthony Grant said Andrew Steele and Trevor Releford would likely play but that Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green remain
suspended indefinitely
.
Florida will be
without their two top scorers off the bench
as Will Yeguete (concussion) and Mike Rasariio (hip). Yeguete's injury is particularly impactful as he provides size on the front line and also serves as the point man when the Gators decide to press.
“Dire is probably a pretty good word,” Donovan said, when asked about UF's frontcourt situation. “We're going to have to do some different
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College Basketball
Alabama Crimson Tide
Florida Gators
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