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NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
12.31.2011 05:03 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
Dallas
at
New York Giants
-3 O/U 47
Prime time Sunday night tilt with the winner hosting next week’s playoff game and the loser wondering what the heck happened this season. Both teams have burned their betting backers and proven to be untrustworthy too often. They enter 8-7 with the Giants playing a brutally tough schedule the second half of the season. The Giants stole a victory at Dallas three weeks ago, 37-34, rallying from 12 points down with less than six minutes remaining. New York owns the league’s worst rushing offense at 88 ypr and 3.5 ypr. They allow 126 rushing ypg and 4.5 ypr. Can Eli Manning carry the Giants to victory one more time with his outstanding season (4,587 passing yards, 8.8 yppa)? Or will Tony Romo’s bruised hand deliver on
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New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys
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NFL Gambling Preview: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
12.30.2011 01:45 PM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
San Francisco
-10.5 at
St. Louis
O/U 35.5
The surprise team of the NFL can clinch the NFC’s No. 2 seed and first round bye with a win. Led by a solid ground game and bend but don’t break defense allowing just 14 ppg, the 49ers appear poised to have a playoff bye and home field game in the divisional round. San Francisco has created and benefitted from a league-best turnover margin, and quarterback Alex Smith has managed the conservative offense effectively with nearly 3,000 yards and a 16/5 TD-to-INT ratio. At 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS, the 49ers have covered the pointspread by over 105 points; best in the NFL. They take on a 2-13 SU/ATS Rams team that did manage to upset the Saints on this field as similar big underdog earlier this season. St. Louis
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San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams
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NFL Gambling Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
12.30.2011 01:36 PM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
A number of playoff scenarios and implications headline NFL Week 17 action. Here is some of the good, bad and ugly for teams in this week’s match-ups. Note that all 17 games are divisional contests.
Tampa Bay
at
Atlanta
-11 O/U 45.5
The money-burning Bucs tossed the towel weeks ago and in my opinion have been unbackable. They enter 4-11 SU/ATS and on a current run of 0-9 SU, 1-8 ATS with seven of those losses by nine or more points. For the season, Tampa Bay’s results have landed over 150 points away-from-the-pointspread; worst in the NFL. Defensive deficiencies have led to the laughable losing as the Bucs have allowed 27 or more points in six of last seven games and allow nearly 400 ypg and league worst 6.2 yards per play. Atlanta gets No. 5 playoff seed in NFC with a win and Detroit loss. A Lions win will have Atlanta potentially traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints next week in the Wild Card round. Falcons play with 16-13, Week 3 revenge against the
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Sports Betting Podcast 12-30-2011 with Brent Crow, Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning
12.30.2011 10:24 AM
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Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brent Crow, Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Brent talked college basketball while Teddy and Erin discussed NFL Week 17.
Today's segments
Brent Crow - College Basketball EGOTB
Teddy Covers - NFL EGOTB Part I
Erin Rynning - NFL EGOTB Part II
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Brent Crow
Teddy Covers
Erin Rynning
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Oddsmakers and bettors do guesswork for NFL Week 17
12.29.2011 12:34 PM
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When it comes to Week 17 of the NFL, there typically aren’t but a few games that don't have that coin-flip, preseason-type feel to it. Even oddsmakers admit there
isn't much science
behind some of these lines. Take Green Bay-Detroit for example. The Packers opened 3-point favorites at CRIS but Detroit is now favored by -3.5 (it took the betting market all of 10 minutes to make the "correction"). Green Bay obviously has nothing to play (Aaron Rodgers may sit) while Detroit can
improve its playoff position
with a win. The Lions will be attempting to win at Lambeau Field for the first time since 1991. A victory would pit them against the winner of the New York-Dallas game while a loss would likely send them to New Orleans.
"Is 3.5 the right number on Detroit? You're really not using math to make that number—you're guessing," Rood said.
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NFL Gambling Notes: Kansas City says full effort vs. Denver despite no postseason
12.27.2011 12:54 PM
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Kansas City
at
Denver
-3 O/U 37
Kansas City was bounced from the postseason after last week's overtime loss to Oakland but according to interim head coach Romeo Crennel, the team plans on going
all out
in Sunday's season finale at Denver. For the Broncos, it is a win-and-in situation (or Oakland loss).
"All these players, they want to win. They want to try to win," the interim coach said Monday. "I don't think anybody goes into a game trying to lose. Every player wants to win."
"It's disappointing that we can't play in the postseason," linebacker Tamba Hali said, "(but) we signed up to play 16. We've got to go there and show those guys we can play."
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NFL Handicapping: Playoff scenarios heading into Week 17
12.27.2011 12:43 PM
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Even though there are only three of 12 postseason spots yet to be determined heading into Week 17, there are a slew of
potential scenarios
in terms of home field advantage and matchups.
AFC:
New England (first round bye), Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are all in. If New England beats (or ties) Buffalo OR Baltimore or Pittsburgh lose (or tie), the Patriots would clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Ravens and Steelers still have a shot at the No. 1 seed but not only need to win but also have the Patriots lose. Denver can win the AFC West with a win over Kansas City or an Oakland loss (vs. San Diego). If Denver and Oakland both win, then the Raiders can make the playoffs with Cincinnati and Tennessee losses or Cincinnati loss and New York Jets win. The Bengals are in if they beat Baltimore. The Jets can get in but need to first beat Miami and have the Bengals, Tennessee and Denver/Oakland lose. Same type of crazy scenario for the Titans who must first win at Houston.
NFC:
Green Bay (home-field advantage throughout),
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Handicapper Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 16
12.27.2011 10:41 AM
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Submitted by
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 16 NFL favorites went 10-6 straight up and 6-10 against the spread. I graded the Cowboys as a betting favorite and Seahawks (+2.5) an ATS winner. For the season, betting favorites are 112-120-8 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Nine division games in Week 16 and division underdog went 3-7 SU and 7-3 ATS. I graded the Eagles as an underdog. Home underdogs went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, and for the season home underdogs are 27-49 SU and 39-36-1 ATS.
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Sports Betting Podcast 12-22-2011 with Crow, Veno, T. Covers and Rynning
12.22.2011 10:29 AM
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Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brent Crow, Rob Veno, Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Brent and Rob split the college basketball card while Teddy and Erin tackled the NFL. Note that there will be no Podcast on Friday and Monday. Have a great holiday.
Today's segments
Brent Crow - College Basketball Every Game on the Board Part I
Rob Veno - College Basketball Every Game on the Board Part II
Teddy Covers - NFL Every Game on the Board Part I
Erin Rynning - NFL Every Game on the Board Part II
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast
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Rob Veno
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NFL Handicapping: Vick faces Dallas' 3-4 defense for a second time
12.21.2011 11:51 AM
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Philadelphia
at
Dallas
-1.5 O/U 50.5
Article on the Philadelphia Eagles and quarterback Michael Vick’s
stats and performances
against 3-4 defenses. Hopefully more media and public buy into the perception that Vick is an elite level quarterback. Little do they know, he's in for rough times against the Cowboys.
The Ryan brothers run similar 3-4 defenses. Vick has had his best success this season against odd-man fronts. When Vick has started, the Eagles are 4-3 against 3-4 defenses, 1-3 against 4-3 fronts.
His overall passing numbers are also slightly better against the 3-4. In those games, Vick completed 61 percent of his passes for 265.2 yards a game and tossed nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Against 4-3 schemes, he has a 57.9 completion percentage and threw for 204.5 yards, four touchdowns and three picks.
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