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College Basketball Gambling Free Pick: Northeastern Huskies at Alabama Crimson Tide
03.19.2013 10:48 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Northeastern
+11 at
Alabama
O/U 129
Recommendation: Northeastern
Alabama has won ten straight at home dating back to the beginning of January, but the Crimson Tide have not been particularly adept at winning by pointspread covering margins. The results don’t lie. Alabama is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as home chalk, and only one of their last nine wins at home came by more than ten points – a revenge matchup against lowly Auburn. Plain and simple – the Tide are not a team that runs up margins, making them a poor double digit favorite tonight.
To make matters worse for Alabama, they’re playing without senior guard Andrew Steele again, out with an ankle injury that is expected to end his season, even if the Crimson Tide advance. When Steele missed the entire month of December, Alabama lost three times at home to lesser teams – Dayton, Mercer and Tulane – as big favorites every
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Tags:
College Basketball
Northeastern Huskies
Alabama Crimson Tide
Teddy Covers
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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for St. Mary's/MTSU and Boise State/La Salle
03.19.2013 06:45 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
I’m going to skip the two play-in games on the #16 seed rung because those teams are so obscure…and basically irrelevant for the week. Here are some notes on the other two play in games. St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tennessee will be played Tuesday night in Dayton, Boise State/LaSalle on Wednesday night.
Hybrid Estimates
St. Mary’s: +12.8 average margin in Big West, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 75.31
Middle Tennessee: +16.5 average margin in the Sun Belt, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 69.51
Middle Tennessee is +3.7 on the raw total, but St. Mary’s played in a conference that was +5.8 points better. So, that’s St. Mary’s by 2.1 points. The Vegas line as I write this is St. Mary’s. Pretty close there.
Boise State: +1.1 average margin in the Mountain West, which has a Sagarin rating of 80.71
LaSalle: +5.5 average margin in the Atlantic 10, which has a Sagarin rating of
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Tags:
College Basketball
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
St. Mary's Gaels
Boise State Broncos
La Salle Explorers
Stat Intelligence
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers takes a look at 28 NCAA Tournament matchups
03.18.2013 10:19 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
With the madness that is March now in full swing, it’s time to take a look through the brackets. Today, I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday. Games are listed in rotation order.
Missouri
spent the entire season losing close games on the road, falling in OT at UCLA and Kentucky, while dropping games by three points or less at Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament. Larry Eustachy got the most he could out of
Colorado State’s
talent level this year, but the Rams, too, lost nearly every step-up game on the highway.
As a No. 3 seed,
Marquette
is only a 3.5-point favorite over No. 14 seed
Davidson
. The betting markets clearly respect the Wildcats five upperclassmen starters that started 30 of their 33 previous games together this season.
Butler
has won at least the first two games of every single postseason tournament they’ve played since 2010, including runs in the Horizon League and A-10 conference tourney’s, two runs to the championship
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Teddy Covers
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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings
03.18.2013 08:08 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
Had some time to throw down numbers after the first set of Vegas lines went up. These are based on early numbers, and could change over the next few days. If you’re new to the website, these are my estimates of how “the market” has its Power Ratings heading into the Big Dance. They’re based on the estimates we’ve been updating continually through the season, and the current numbers in Tuesday/Thursday/Friday action.
Note that the market loves Florida, Arizona, and Pittsburgh more than the polls or selection committee did…which has been true or several weeks. And, for you regulars, the ACC may be getting more respect in the market that I had been guessing in recent days based on the early prices for NC and NC State, and possibly the Mountain West too the way things are shading with some of those teams.
First, by seed.
1…Louisville 87, Indiana 87, Gonzaga 85, Kansas 84
2…Duke 86, Ohio State 84, Miami 83, Georgetown
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NCAA Basketball Betting Recap: Syracuse disintegrates, Kansas and New Mexico cut down nets
03.17.2013 06:45 AM
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Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
If you ever wondered by handicappers should pay attention to fatigue, the last 15 minutes of tonight’s Syracuse/Louisville game should have made it crystal clear. Syracuse hit a wall…a bit more than midway through their fourth game in four days. A 16-point lead evaporated in a finger snap. Another finger snap, and Louisville was up by that much!
Syracuse 45-29 in the first 25 minutes
Louisville 49-16 in the last 15 minutes
The treys stopped falling for Syracuse (the laws of math only let you tempt fate for so long), the legs stopped moving in their zone defense…which allowed Louisville to either pass for easy buckets or rebound misses for easy buckets. One team hit a wall just as the other finally found the right gear. Amazing to behold.
Louisville 78, Syracuse 61
2-Point Percentage: Syracuse 41%, Louisville 45%
3-Point Shooting: Syracuse 9/22, Louisville 6/19
Free Throws: Syracuse 12/26,
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Syracuse Orange
Louisville Cardinals
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Sports Betting Podcast 3-15-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno, Ian Cameron, and Teddy Covers
03.15.2013 10:01 AM
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Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno, Ian Cameron, and Teddy Covers. All three handicappers broke down today's college basketball conference tournaments.
Today's segments
Full Show
Rob Veno - ACC, Big Ten, Atlantic-10 Conference Tournaments
Ian Cameron - SEC, C-USA, MAC Conference Tournaments
Teddy Covers - Big East, Big XII, PAC-12, MWC Conference Tournaments
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast
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Rob Veno
Ian Cameron
Teddy Covers
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College Basketball Betting Recap: Georgetown, Illinois, and Iowa State advance
03.14.2013 12:54 PM
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Stat Intelligence
The early Thursday schedule was notable for the number of Dance-bound teams finally seeing action. If what happened on the floor today is any indication, not much should be expected from the likes of Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati next week. Heck, Illinois WON but looked about as bad as you can while winning a game.
Let’s run the numbers…
Illinois 51, Minnesota 49
2-Point Percentage: Minnesota 43%, Illinois 39%
3-Point Shooting: Minnesota 6/17, Illinois 6/25
Free Throws: Minnesota 11/14, Illinois 9/10
1’s and 2’s: Minnesota 31, Illinois 33
Rebounds: Minnesota 36, Illinois 24
Turnovers: Minnesota 17, Illinois 5
(Minnesota 24 in Kenpom, 30 in Sagarin, 30 in BPI, Illinois 42-44-62)
Very ugly game. Minnesota continued it’s “Hey computers, will you just accept that we suck instead of talking about
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Georgetown Hoyas
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Big Ten Tournament Betting Free Play: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
03.14.2013 11:08 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Nebraska
+6 vs.
Purdue
O/U 120
Recommendation: Nebraska
If you've been watching these conference tournaments you know that winning by margin (or straight up for that matter) isn't easy when you’re a favorite. And it becomes even more difficult when the team laying the points spent much of the season struggling to achieve mediocrity. That appears to be the case for Purdue who finds itself in a position of laying -6 after a strong finish to the regular season. The Boilermakers found a way to win in Madison and were very respectable in a five-point home loss to Michigan. In the season finale, they rolled over a toxic Minnesota squad, 89-73. To me however, Purdue is being priced based on a three-game swatch of games rather than its entire body of work. It is hard to say a lot of positive things about Nebraska who finished 5-13 in Big Ten play. They were outclassed on most nights against the league's elite but against more comparable foes, they were able to
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Purdue Boilermakers
Erin Rynning
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ACC Tournament Betting Preview
03.14.2013 07:48 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
ACC Tournament Preview
The return of sharp shooting forward Ryan Kelly has most of the country believing that this is Duke’s tournament to lose. The bracket setup has the Blue Devils likely headed for a semifinal matchup with arch rival North Carolina who Duke dismantled at Chapel Hill last Saturday and then a potential showdown with Miami. Before we look too far ahead, there appears to be quite a bit of competitive basketball played between today’s first round and Friday’s quarterfinals. Youth will be in play as Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech and Clemson all have an abundance of underclassmen who are major contributors. With that in mind, results could be a bit random since there’s no real way of telling how players will react to this huge spotlight. Virginia and Maryland fit the “desperate team” bill here as they are both fighting to get into the Big Dance so expect fully focused efforts from each. Last season this tournament was played in Atlanta’s Phillips Arena but this year it is back in Greensboro Coliseum where in 2011, the tourney favorites went 8-3 against the spread. Of that 8-3
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Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview
03.13.2013 04:08 PM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Big Ten Tournament Preview
Michigan State cut down the nets last year in Banker’s Life Fieldhouse as the winner of the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans were the No. 1 seed which marked the fifth time in the last six years the top team won. This year’s event moves to the United Center in Chicago and the bullseye will fall on the Indiana Hoosiers who won the regular season crown and earned the No. 1 seed after knocking off Michigan last Sunday. However, this is as deep a tournament field as I can remember since the inaugural event in 1998. For much of the regular season you could throw a blanket over Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and even Wisconsin. Keep in mind in late December Minnesota and Illinois were respectively ranked 11th and 12th in the country and then play in the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game tomorrow.
First Round Pick/Darkhorse: Iowa
The Hawkeyes are a longshot to get to the Big Dance, but a rapidly improving basketball team, with a 20-11 record. The Hawkeyes showed improvement down the stretch by winning six of their last eight games outright,
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Erin Rynning
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