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NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

08.14.2015     10:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Denver +5 at Seattle O/U 36.5
Recommendation: Denver

The betting markets are infatuated with Pete Carroll’s preseason track record in Seattle; installing the Seahawks as five point favorites against the Broncos.  And it’s easy to understand why the markets love Carroll in August, particularly playing at home.  They won their two home preseason games last year by 41-14 and 34-6 margins, won 40-10 and 22-6 in home preseason games in 2013, and won 27-17 and 21-3 in home preseason games in 2012.

But that’s all in the rear view mirror now – the conditions that existed in Seattle in recent years just don’t exist this year.  That makes the Seahawks a poor favorite for their 2015 preseason debut on Friday.   What has changed?  A LOT!

Fresh off back-2-back Super Bowl appearances, the Seahawks have nothing to prove in August.  Seattle has been one of the deepest teams in the league in recent seasons, giving them great depth in the second half of these preseason games.   That’s not the case anymore, with the Seahawks up against the salary cap – this is NOT a Read more

Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians

08.13.2015     10:01 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
New York (Eovaldi) -120 at Cleveland (Bauer) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: New York

I think we have a good spot and matchup to back the Yankees as short road favorites as they should be poised to bring a level of desperation and intensity as they look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians. New York has lost five straight games and can ill afford to get swept by Cleveland with another big series on deck against AL East leader Toronto at the Rogers Centre. Nathan Eovaldi is on an impressive stretch where he’s allowed 3 runs or less in 9 straight outings with the Yankees going 7-2 in those outings. He pitched a gem against the high powered Blue Jays lineup in his last start allowing a single run on 5 hits in 6.1 innings of work and should be able to keep the light hitting Indians in check tonight. Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland tonight and I’ve bet against him a handful of times this season. Bauer has been extremely inconsistent with a 5.60 ERA in 12 home starts this season. He's given up 4+ runs in three of his last five starts and Cleveland is just 1-4 in his last 5 trips to the hill. I’ll support the road Read more

Tags: MLB New York Yankees Cleveland Indians Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

08.10.2015     10:28 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Washington (Gonzalez) at Los Angeles (Anderson) -125 O/U 7
Recommendation: Over

Both the Nationals and Dodgers have broken out of offensive slumps in a big way over the course of the last week.  Between them, the two teams have scored at least four runs in 13 of their last 14 ballgames. Obviously, if the loser reaches four tonight, we’ll cash our Over ticket with room to spare.  And there’s little reason to expect a shutdown showing from either pitching staff this evening.

The Nationals have been an underachieving offensive team for most of the season, struggling with key injuries and numerous unexpected slumps.  But Matt Williams finally has the key bats in the middle of the batting order healthy and in good form, with Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth combining for five hits including three dingers yesterday.  This team was built to hit and they are showing signs of an offensive resurgence right now.

It’s a similar story for the Dodgers; a team with a potent lineup that is built to hit, despite their underachieving offensive results for most of the campaign.  Sill, LA ranks among Read more

Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Los Angeles Dodgers Teddy Covers

College Football Betting: Michgan's Harbaugh focused on offensive line play

08.06.2015     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A staple of Jim Harbaugh coaches teams has always been their ability to control the line of scrimmage. That appears to be his top priority heading into his first season at Michigan. The Wolverines' o-line will be tested right off the bat in Week 1 with a trip to Utah. The Utes led the nation in sacks last year (55) and racked up over 100 tackles for loss. Notice that the total for last year's meeting was 53 (Utah won 26-10). This year's total is currently priced at 46.5.

"Precision, No. 1," Harbaugh says. "In order for them to be good football players, there has to be precision. That's how it is with all 11. But with those five linemen, working together. Working in conjunction.

"It's the largest position group there is on the football field. Restarting Friday, when we get back onto the practice field, it's critical to our football team that everybody's focused in on doing just that playing precise."

Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Utah Utes PAC-12

College Football Gambling: Iowa scores one of easiest power conference schedules

08.04.2015     09:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.

For a season straight season, an extremely favorable schedule based on their opponents' 2014 record and 2015 season over/under wins awaits the Iowa Hawkeyes. Of their 11 games vs. FBS competition only two are against teams projected to post winning records. The five teams they miss out on in the East Division include Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Iowa is currently lined at 7.5 wins.

vs. Illinois State - FCS; lost to NDSU in '14 title game
at Iowa State - Lined at 3 wins
vs. Pittsburgh - Lined at 6 wins
vs. North Texas - Lined at 4.5 wins
at Wisconsin - Lined at 9.5 wins
vs. Illinois - Lined at 4 wins
at Northwestern - Lined at 6 wins
vs. Maryland - Lined at 4.5 wins
at Indiana - Lined a 5.5 wins
vs. Minnesota - Lined at 6 wins
vs. Purdue - Lined at 4 wins
at Nebraska - Lined at 8 wins
Avg. Season O/U Wins = 5.5

Rutgers - Lined at 5 wins
Michigan - Lined at 7.5 wins
Michigan State - Lined at 9.5 wins
Ohio State - Lined at 11.5 wins
Penn State - Lined Read more

Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part I

08.03.2015     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season O/U Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Buffalo Bills didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty New England.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season win total before December rolled around.  Buffalo’s 9-7 campaign offered a no sweat positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 6.5 or 7 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals remain among the most profitable set of wagers Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

NFL Handicapping: Tennessee names Mariota starting quarterback

07.31.2015     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article on the Tennessee Titans naming Marcus Mariota their Week 1 starting quarterback. The article also discusses the difficulty most run-oriented college quarterbacks have had when asked to become "pocket passers" at the next level. The big question is what will Ken Whisenhunt try to do in terms of a system with Mariota under center? The Titans had a horrific offensive line last season that played a part in Jake Locker's retirement.

Like dropping back and making multiple reads from the pocket. Mariota is an unknown in this realm. The system at Oregon almost never asked him to do this. And the system’s rapid tempo often left him facing static, simplified defenses—not the multifaceted disguises, blitzes and coverage rotations he’ll see in the pros.

Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans

College Football Gambling: Ohio State suspensions impact Week 1 pointspread

07.31.2015     07:54 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The suspension of four Ohio State players caused some movement in the betting markets yesterday. The Buckeyes travel to Blacksburg for a Week 1 showdown vs. the Hokies. Of those sitting for OSU will be Joey Bosa is arguably the best defensive end in college football. Ohio State opened -14 but when rumors of the suspensions surfaced, the line dropped to -12.5. Once it became official, more VT money caused the line to plummet to its current number of -10.

"We talk about it every day," senior linebacker Joshua Perry said before the Buckeyes left for the ESPYs earlier this month. "This is the time of year when things can get out of hand. You really have to keep an eye on that. We do a really good job policing each other and making sure guys stay out of trouble."

Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Virginia Tech Hokies ACC

College Football Betting Podcast: Big XII Preview with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno

07.27.2015     11:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange previewed the Big XII.

Today's segments
Rob Veno - Big XII Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Big XII Rob Veno Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling: A look back at last year's 20* winner on Carolina Under 8.5 Wins

07.27.2015     08:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Below is Teddy Covers' write-up for last year's NFL Season O/U Wins Report 20* winner. Since 2001, Teddy has produced a documented record of 71-31 70% including 11-1 92% with his 20* Big Tickets. This year's report is currently available for purchase and will be released on Wednesday. Teddy includes in-depth written analysis on all of plays.

20* Big Ticket: Carolina UNDER 8.5 Wins
Just about everything broke right for the Carolina Panthers last year on their way to a 12-4 season.  Following a 1-3 start, the Panthers reeled off 11 wins in their final 12 regular season games in large part thanks to a 5-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. 

Make no mistake about it – the Panthers were every bit as lucky as they were good during that extended winning run.  Head coach Ron Rivera was on the hot seat, but he saved his job thanks to a ‘Riverboat Ron’ mentality down the stretch of tight games, a strategy that offers no hope of long term success.

And the Panthers feasted largely on the weak, with

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers


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