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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Basketball Pointspread Juggernauts
02.03.2014 07:35 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
The Super Bowl is in the rear view mirror after Sunday’s huge Seattle blowout, which can only mean one thing – college hoops is on center stage for the next eight weeks. I’ve been writing game previews for ESPN.com/Insider, but I’ve yet to write a true college basketball overview column so far this season. It’s time!
I’m going take a look at the four very best regular board pointspread teams in the country in this week’s column. Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs. And the very best pointspread teams tend to be under-the-radar type squads, like the single best ATS team in college hoops thusfar in the 2013-14 campaign.
Cleveland State
has a decent record, sitting in a second place tie in the Horizon League standings with a 6-3 mark in conference; 15-9 SU overall. If the NCAA tournament started today, Gary Waters’ Vikings wouldn’t even sniff an at-large bid – they’ll need to win the league tournament to go
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Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
02.02.2014 08:54 AM
Otto Sports
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Submitted by Otto Sports
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over
This line is all over the board offshore and I’m sure it is in Vegas as well. The best number I’ve seen offshore is 40.5 -115 at Heritage. I’ve also seen as high as 43.5 +100 at Bookmaker. Try to get the best number you can, you never know when that yard or half a yard will matter.
Doug Baldwin doesn’t get much in the way of national media attention and he is far from a Pro Bowl caliber receiver. But he might just be Russell Wilson’s favorite target right now and I think that gives us an edge with this prop.
Baldwin has big play ability which can go a long way to helping us cash this bet. He posted a catch of over 20 yards in 13 games this year and had 10 games where he had more than 40 receiving yards. That includes his season high 106 yard effort against a tough 49ers defense in the NFC Championship. This week he takes a step down in competition against Football Outsiders’ 21st ranked pass defense.
Percy Harvin’s return is the big story and I’m sure Seattle will try to get him involved. But I don’t think that fact
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers
02.01.2014 08:11 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Northwestern
at
Minnesota
-10.5 O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Under
There are three very strong aspects of Northwestern basketball right now that have them trending under the total. For starters, they've succeeded in playing at a slow pace and shortening the game – a logical choice for a squad that is outmanned talent-wise nearly each and every night. Second is the Wildcats can't shoot. Last time out vs. Wisconsin, NW shot 50% from 2, 44% from 3, and 75% from the FT line – a near perfect performance by their standards that netted them a modest 65 points. Even with that showing, NW checks in at 0.84 ppp – a historical bad rate. Lastly, the Wildcats play sound team defense holding five of their last six foes to 40% or less effective FG%. Minnesota wants to push the pace but finding it difficult in the Big Ten (8th, 65.2 possessions per game). And Andre Hollins, the team’s top offensive option, it out with an ankle injury. I keep waiting
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College Basketball Handicapping: Teams wiith same starting five
02.01.2014 07:54 AM
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Article that features every college basketball team that has had the
same starting five
this season.
Division I teams that have used the same starting lineup in every game:
AAC
Cincinnati
Atlantic 10
UMass
Atlantic Sun
Mercer
Big East
Butler
Providence
Big South
Campbell
Big Ten
Illinois
Iowa
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Big 12
Oklahoma
Mountain West
Wyoming
Pac 12
Stanford
SEC
Missouri
Southern
Elon
Southland
Sam Houston State
Stephen F. Austin
SWAC
Alabama State
WAC
Utah Valley
West Coast
Portland
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College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 1-31-2014
01.31.2014 02:34 PM
Brian Edwards
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Submitted by Brian Edwards
Minnesota will be without its leading scorer again for Saturday's home game vs. Northwestern. Andre Hollins is recovering from an ankle injury sustained in the opening minute of a home win over Wisconsin on Jan. 22. Hollins averages 15.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.0 steals per game. He was unable to play earlier this week in an 82-78 loss at Nebraska.
Cincinnati senior center Justin Jackson returned to the lineup in Thursday's 69-66 win at Louisville. Jackson injured his ankle early in the first half of Sunday's win at Temple and didn't return. But he looked just fine against the Cardinals, producing 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocked shots in 37 minutes of playing time. The Bearcats won outright as nine-point underdogs and hooked up money-line supporters with a +350 return (paid $350 on $100 wagers). If you didn't know already, now you do. Cincy is a legit national-title contender because it rebounds and defends as well as team in the country. And Mick Cronin has a senior leader in Sean Kilpatrick that dropped 29 points on U of L and always wants the rock at crunch time.
Rick Pitino's squad had been without
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Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
01.30.2014 11:19 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over 39.5
Baldwin’s season averages won’t support this wager – hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books. But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin. And Baldwin has become Wilson’s go-to guy down the stretch. He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!
Last season Teddy Covers and his clients CRUSHED the prop bets with a 10-1 record. For Sunday's Super Bowl XLVIII, he has nine props with analysis and a recommendation on the game's side.
Get them all for only $49
.
Below is what clients received with Teddy's prop bet package last year...
WIN - Will There Be Three
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College Basketball Handicapping: Florida's Walker cleared to play
01.30.2014 07:32 AM
Brian Edwards
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Submitted by Brian Edwards
At long last, the NCAA has reached a conclusion in the case of Florida freshman Chris Walker. The organization announced Wednesday that Walker has been suspended for 12 games and he's cleared to return in UF's home game Tuesday vs. Missouri.
Why? Well, Walker apparently received $270 from two different agents while he was playing AAU basketball during his high-school years. He also got free food, free airfare and hotel lodging from three different people. For this, he must perform 80 hours of community service. The NCAA also indicated that associates of Walker were provided free airfare for eight different trips for his AAU team.
My only question: What big-time high-school recruit doesn't receive all of the benefits listed above?
Anyway, we all know how incompetent the NCAA is, so that's not a big shocker. The good news for Florida is that there's finally a resolution to this mess.
“I appreciate all the support from UF, Coach Donovan and my teammates, and I'm looking forward to helping the team any way I can,” Walker said in a statement.
Walker is a McDonald's All-American who led Holmes Co. High School to a state title in
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Butler Bulldogs at Seton Hall Pirates
01.29.2014 09:59 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Butler
at
Seton Hall
-5.5 O/U 133.5
Recommendation: Seton Hall
Over the last ten years, Butler has morphed into the new Gonzaga; the mid-major team with the most consistent NCAA tournament success. But three major things have changed for the Bulldogs in 2014. First head coach Brad Stevens, the architect of the ‘Butler way’ has moved on to the NBA. Second, the competition is much tougher as they’ve moved from the Horizon League to the A-10 and now to the Big East.
But the biggest difference of all is that this Butler team simply doesn’t have the talent to compare with recent editions. There are no NBA caliber players on the roster like Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack or Matt Howard. Nor are there all – conference caliber players like Rotnei Clark, Roosevelt Jones or Andrew Smith. This would be a middle of the pack A-10 team this year. In the Big East, that puts Butler right with
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Bettors gear up for Super Bowl XLVIII
01.27.2014 08:14 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
It’s Super Bowl time again; the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for sports bettors. Yet many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities this year – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit. The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes. Bad numbers do NOT abound in 2014.
Let me start with the game itself. The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years. The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers. The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots. In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts. In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers. In 2008, the Giants beat the favored 18-0 Patriots outright. The only favorite to win and cover in the last six Super Bowls was the Packers when they beat the Steelers in 2011.
The underdog trend in the Super Bowl goes back even further than that, with four consecutive dog covers from 2002 through 2005
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College Basketball Handicapping: Injury Report 1-24-2014
01.24.2014 10:49 AM
Brian Edwards
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Submitted by Brian Edwards
Can you really blame Michigan State junior Branden Dawson? When I'm forced to listen to ESPN analyst Dan Dakich talk (about anything!), I want to pull my hair out. Dakich is the Mark May of college basketball. I disagree with everything that comes out of his mouth and his delivery is the equivalent of fingernails screeching across the chalkboard. During a Thursday film session for the Spartans, Dakich was commenting on a mistake by Dawson, prompting him to slam his hand against a table. The result is a broken bone in his right (shooting) hand that will cause him to miss the next 4-5 weeks. Dawson averages 10.2 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. He also has 22 steals and 17 blocked shots. Senior center Adreian Payne (16.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has missed four straight games with a foot injury, and he is 'doubtful' Saturday vs. Michigan.
Minnesota's leading scorer Andre Hollins (16.2 PPG) suffered a sprained ankle in the opening minutes of this week's home win over Wisconsin. The results of an MRI were negative and there's a chance Hollins will play Saturday at Nebraska. He is listed as 'questionable.'
Alabama played without its second-leading scorer in last night's 68-62
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