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December

19

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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview: High scoring affair on the horizon

02.03.2012     07:32 AM         Printer Friendly
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SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’m not in agreement with the recent downward move on the Super Bowl total; now at 54 and even 53 at Pinnacle. While many are pointing out that seven of the last eight Super Bowls lined at 46.5 points or higher have gone under the total, I note that the last three Super Bowls all had at least 47 points scored including last year’s 31-25 Green Bay win over Pittsburgh (a side winner for us). The Saints beat the Colts in 2009 as a touchdown underdog, 31-17 (a side winner for us), but the game finished under the posted total of 56.5 points. 

Like that contest, Super Bowl XLVI has two top quarterbacks that are supremely skilled, polished, poised and precise in their passing and play. Going against suspect secondaries on both sides in perfect conditions should result in plenty of big plays in the passing game. The linesmaker is also projecting big passing days by both Eli Manning and Tom Brady, with over/under passing yards posted at 312 and 323 respectively. Both teams will spread the field with their talented receivers and take advantage of two poor pass defenses. Each quarterback is also very comfortable and efficient operating the no-huddle offense.  Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots New York Giants Super Bowl XLVI __




NBA Handicapping: New York Knicks push pace and find offensive stride

02.03.2012     07:05 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We cashed our Eastern Conference O/U Game of the Month to close out January and followed it up with another 20* O/U Game of the Month winner last night when the Bulls beat the Knicks 105-102. That’s back-to-back top-play 20* Big Drive winners on Knicks games over the total after they pounded the Pistons in their previous game 113-86. Both games went over the posted total by at least 15 points. With Carmelo Anthony out of the lineup, the Knicks pushed the pace in a pair of losses before the last two games, and ‘Melo scored 25 and 26 points in his return the past two games as New York opened up their offense, hit more shots and pushed the pace. The Pistons were the perfect opponent to appease the restless New York fans, and despite yesterday’s loss to the Bulls, New York is a team worth riding over the total with their sub-par defense and more open offense.

Here is my game write-up of the Knicks-Pistons game provided to clients earlier this week.  Recent play, insightful information and positive pointspread prognosis led us to another over the total Big Drive winner.


We’re projecting plenty of running, shooting and scoring Read more



Tags: NBA New York Knicks __




College Basketball Handicapping: Undefeated home teams

02.02.2012     07:08 AM         Printer Friendly
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Every season I discuss and post information on the importance of home courts in college basketball and mention how teams perform with a home/road dichotomy. Understanding home court advantage and the situations surrounding the current contests is important in helping you isolate winners. While the oddsmaker factors home court into the pointspread, there are teams who still perform much better on their home floor. Understanding player strengths and match-ups, team chemistry, current form and statistical performance both home and away is part of breaking down a game. Supporting fans and a comfortable surrounding should only help the home team perform better.  Along with good coaching and preparation, players can become more consistent in their play at home along with their performance when having to take to the road in hostile environments. Once teams get to postseason play, you must factor in and handicap a team’s home/road performance to deliver more pointspread winners. 

Some of the best situational plays develop during February. Many conference teams are now playing "second meets" or opponents for the second time in conference play. These Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




College Basketball Free Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies

01.28.2012     09:03 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Fresno State at New Mexico State -9.5 O/U 144
Recommendation: New Mexico State


This is the wrong place at the wrong time for Fresno State, whose road struggles are well documented with 11 losses away from home this season. At 1-5 in WAC play, the Bulldogs are struggling and the schedule and situation is bad Saturday as they travel to take on one of the WAC’s top teams, New Mexico State. Fresno State is playing its third straight road game and coming off a tough travel spot with a quick turnaround following a draining, emotional 59-58 loss at Louisiana Tech on Thursday. Much energy and effort was needed for them to rally late, only to fall short on a last second basket by Tech. Now they take on an angry New Mexico State team off its own disappointing home loss Thursday vs. league leader Nevada. But the Aggies have some big edges in this contest in the match-ups and stat profiles to go along with the poor situation against Fresno State. NMSU Read more


Tags: College Basketball Fresno State Bulldogs New Mexico State Aggies __




NCAA Basketball Gambling: Big Ten Coaches Teleconference

01.25.2012     09:19 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Part of my success in handicapping college basketball and delivering positive and profitable pointspread prognosis is listening to college coaches’ weekly teleconferences and picking up information that goes beyond the box scores, stats or even scheduling situations. Coaches may give you additional injury information or comment on their recent play, changes in style or how to handle an upcoming opponent. I’m always looking for additional nuggets and information that don’t necessarily show up in the box scores or translate to the betting line. Some of the conversation can be general discussion or overview, but at times I find it helpful to not only hear the coach discuss his teams play and upcoming opponent, but also provide their insight into player personnel, style of play or even analyze their team’s recent energy, effort and level of play.

Here are some quotes from this week’s Big Ten Coaches Teleconference. The Big Ten is arguably the best conference in the nation this season, and according to Kenpom rankings, currently No. 1. I also believe the Big Ten has the finest collection of coaches in the country with John Beilein, Bill Carmody, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Illinois Fighting llini Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers __




College Basketball Handicapping: Eastern Michigan first half betting trend

01.25.2012     06:54 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I recently came across an interesting note and trend on a first half money-maker this season. I identified this team and situation early season, but must admit I did not follow through consistently betting the Eastern Michigan totals after a few cashes early season. Many college basketball bettors do not wager on first half lines, but come the second half, bettors often fire away at the adjusted halftime lines. Here’s another situation and streak that may get you to dig deeper into totals, pace ratings and the many ways and opportunities in betting and beating college basketball.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles have produced a remarkable over/under run on first half wagering this season; now 15-0 UNDER the total following last night’s game at Buffalo. What’s interesting is that only one of the 15 lined games had a first half total of 60 or more points, and 9 of the 15 games had a posted total of 122 points or less.  The Eagles record is 9-11 this season but 4-2 in the Western Division of the MAC.

Of the 338 college basketball teams, Eastern Michigan ranks 337th in adjusted tempo and 333rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Eagles average Read more


Tags: College Basketball Eastern Michigan Eagles __




College Basketball Betting: Analyzing close pointspread results Part II

01.19.2012     06:53 AM         Printer Friendly
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SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Continuing our analysis of close pointspread results, there has been over 500 games thus far in January, and 40% of the games landed within five points of the betting line and 10% within one point of the line. If fact, 16 of the 18 games January 16-17 landed within five points of the betting line, and last Saturday it was a remarkable 48 of 99 games! As previously mentioned, regardless of your level of handicapping ability, long term results of these close ATS games should produce close to 50% ATS winners and losers. Yet we’ve been suffering though many close losses in January, now 7-16 on those close contests. We’ll continue to evaluate the results, stats and match-ups, and work to become even more proficient in pointspread prognosis in our never ending pursuit of profit. With that, the unfortunate results and negative random variance should subside.

Despite a solid base using good power ratings and adjusting those during the season, there is so much more to the puzzle and preparing your pointspread Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




NBA Handicapping: Single-digit home favorites cashing in at 64% clip

01.18.2012     01:27 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NBA season is already 20% complete and I’ve been tracking scores, stats and ATS results with the condensed schedule having an impact on team’s energy and effort on a nightly basis. We see more teams playing reserves in the fourth quarter as a game becomes out of reach. With that, home teams are covering more pointspreads and especially as single-digit favorites.

Last night, single-digit home favs went 4-1 ATS and tonight there are seven home teams in the same role. For the season, single-digit home favorites are 59-34 ATS (64%), and following tonight’s results we’ll have a 100-game sample showing at least 60% success.

One hot team in that role tonight is Philadelphia (-5.5). The 76ers (10-3) are leading the Easter Conference Atlantic division by 4.0 games and remain one of four teams perfect at home. They are performing well under head coach Doug Collins and outscore opponents 102-80 at the Wells Fargo Arena while going 6-0 SU/ATS. They are also a league-best 10-2-1 ATS this season.

A closer look at their schedule shows that four of those home wins were against Washington (1-12), Detroit (3-11), Toronto (4-10) and Sacramento Read more


Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Denver Nuggets __




College Basketball Betting: Analyzing close against the spread results

01.17.2012     07:14 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is Part I of a series of articles to be posted on college basketball results and the impact against the spread (ATS). I’m often asked about close results and usually emailed, tweeted or text a message about a close win or loss (usually loss). It’s important to understand some of the random variances that can take place in betting sports, and in this case college basketball. Over the course of a college basketball season the average margin of a final score will fall with 8-9 points from the betting line.

Over the past few weeks we have suffered our share of close ATS losses, including 0-5 the past three days for results that landed within five points of the betting line. Along with some service selections, my personal wagering has resulted in a 0-5 recent run for games that landed within one point of the betting line.  Yet despite some recent less than desired results, we’ve been on quite a run on our top-rated Big Drive plays. Since late November the record stands 25-7.

Through the winning run and full season, I spend many hours logging and tracking scores, stats and lines. I’ve been tracking scores and documenting the results Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




College Basketball Gambling Preview: Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks

01.16.2012     09:47 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas and Baylor battle in a key Big Xll game Monday night with both teams 4-0 in conference play. They should put on a great show at raucous Allen Fieldhouse, where Kansas is 60-1 SU the last 3+ years. Baylor’s collection of big men may be the best in the nation with a long, athletic group of forwards and some top NBA prospects including sophomore Perry Jones lll and freshman Quincy Miller. Kansas counters with a 7-foot center and the league’s No. 1 rebounder, junior Thomas Robinson.

I saw Baylor (17-0) play West Virginia in December at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. The Bears’ athleticism and length is impressive and they remain one of just three undefeated teams in the country.

Here is a statistical profile of tonight’s top game on ESPN.

League stats show the following.

• Baylor leads the league in scoring at 79 ppg while Kansas has the league’s No. 1 scoring defense allowing just 57 ppp
• Baylor is No. 2 in scoring defense at 62 Read more


Tags: College Basketball Baylor Bears Kansas Jayhawks __



7

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