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NFL coaches behind the curve when it comes to analytics

02.20.2014     12:18 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article by Nate Silver in ESPN The Magazine's upcoming Analytics Issue. It discusses the relationship between statistics and what people do (or in the case of NFL head coaches, don't do) in terms of applying them.

 

According to 4th Down Bot, NFL teams kicked or punted when they should have gone for it 693 times in the past regular season, or 21.7 mishandled situations per team.





Tags: NFL




MLB Handicapping: LVH posts 2014 Season Over/Under Wins

02.17.2014     08:15 AM     Printer Friendly
Last Friday, LVH posted its MLB season over/under wins. Below is a chart of those numbers as well as a comparison to last season's results. Oddsmakers are projecting the biggest improvements from the White Sox (+14), Astros (+12.5), Angels (+9.5), Giants (+9.5), and Mariners (+9.5). Meanwhile, the Pirates (-9.5), Red Sox (-9.5), Atlanta (-8.5), and A's (-7) are your biggest "decliners."

2014 MLB Season O/U Wins - LVH
Team
2013 Wins
LVH
Difference
Arizona
81
80
-1
Atlanta
96
87.5
-8.5
Baltimore
85
78
-7
Boston
97
87.5
-9.5
Chicago Cubs
66
68.5
+2.5
Chicago White Sox
63
77
+14
Cincinnati
90
83.5
-6.5
Cleveland
92
80
-12
Colorado
74
75.5
+1.5
Detroit
93
89.5
-3.5
Houston
51
63.5
+12.5
Kansas City
86
79.5
-6.5
LA Angels
78
87.5
+9.5
LA Dodgers
92
93.5
+1.5
Miami
62
69.5
+7.5
Milwaukee
74
79.5
+5.5
Minnesota
66
71.5
+5.5
NY Mets
74
73.5
-0.5
NY Yankees
85
85.5
+0.5
Oakland
96
89
-7
Philadelphia
73
76
+3
Pittsburgh
94
84.5
-9.5
San Diego
76
78.5
+2.5
San Francisco
76
85.5
+9.5
Seattle
71
80.5
+9.5
St. Louis
97
91.5
-5.5
Tampa Bay
92
87.5
-4.5
Texas
91
86.5
-4.5
Toronto
74
79.5
+5.5
Washington
86
87.5
+1.5




Tags: MLB




LVH will be posting MLB Season O/U Wins next week

02.10.2014     01:19 PM     Printer Friendly
Baseball season is right around the corner and per usual LVH Sportsbook will be one of the first to accomadate bettors by posting season over/under wins next Sunday. You can also pick up a  copy a Baseball Prospectus' 2014 edition.

copy_lv_mlb.JPG



Tags: MLB




NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

12.13.2013     01:56 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at Indianapolis
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Indianapolis -6.5 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -5 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Indianapolis -8
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Indianapolis

The wiseguys here in Vegas absolutely despise the Colts; rare vitriol from professional bettors.  Why the abject hatred for Indy?  Simple – Indy’s stats are lousy, just like they were last year; yet the Colts are on a 16-8 ATS run in their last 24 ballgames.  In other words, the sharp $$ has been fading Indy for two years and consistently losing those bets; a mounting source of frustration.

Those same wiseguys have cashed betting against the Colts three times in their last five games; blowout losses against the Rams, Cardinals and Bengals.  And we’re seeing heavy money pour in on Houston, against Indy again this week; giving us a very favorable line to support Read more


Tags: NFL Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Week 15 Injury Report

12.06.2013     11:31 AM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Missouri starting strong safety Duron Singleton is ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s SEC Championship Game against Auburn. Singleton missed last Saturday’s win over Texas A&M with a hip injury.

UL-Lafayette will most likely be without its outstanding quarterback Saturday at South Alabama. Junior Terrance Broadway is ‘doubtful’ against the Jaguars due to a wrist injury. Broadway has a 19-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio, in addition to eight rushing TDs. Redshirt freshman Brooks Haack will most likely get his first career start under center for the Ragin’ Cajuns. He had only appeared at garbage time until playing in the second half of last week’s 31-28 home loss to ULM. Haack has completed 16-of-21 throws for 175 yards and one TD without an interception. Also, UL-Lafayette starting safety Darius Barksdale is ‘questionable’ with a hand injury.

SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert (21-7 TD-INT) has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Saturday’s game vs. UCF due to a sore knee. Without Gilbert last week, the Mustangs lost 34-0 at Houston. It was the first time a team coached by June Jones had Read more


Tags: College Football Brian Edwards




MLB+NHL+NFL 20* Combo Pack

10.14.2013     09:35 AM     Printer Friendly
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Thursday Night Football Betting Recap: Eli Throws More Picks, Louisville Misses Kicks

10.11.2013     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Kind of a sloppy night in football. In the two early games everyone was watching…Giants/Bears and Rutgers/Louisville…everybody committed at least three turnovers but Chicago. And, they missed so many tackles and played such crappy defense that they didn’t exactly sparkle as a team in their victory. Let’s crunch the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

Chicago 27, NY Giants 21 (+9.5)

NYG: 355 yards, 6.7 per-play, 3 Read more


Tags: NFL Chicago Bears New York Giants College Football Louisville Cardinals Rutgers Scarlet Knights AAC Stat Intelligence




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10.08.2013     09:59 AM     Printer Friendly
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College Football Betting: Nebraska goes with redshirt frosh quarterback

10.04.2013     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Illinois at Nebraska -9 O/U 60.5

Bo Pelini announced that quarterback Taylor Martinez (turf toe) will not play Saturday against Illinois. The Cornhuskers will instead start redshirt frosh Tommy Armstrong who completed 12-of-15 passes for 169 yards two weeks ago against South Dakota State.


“We’ll start Tommy, Ronnie will be ready to go and Taylor will not play,” Pelini said.

“I’m not telling him he can’t play,” Pelini said. “Like I said, to be able to play and function in our offense — do what you have to do — he’s got to able to put his foot in the ground and feel comfortable doing that.”





Tags: College Football Nebraska Cornhuskers Illinois Fighting Illini Big Ten




College Football Handicapping: Week 6 Injury Report

10.02.2013     12:31 PM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas quarterback David Ash has been ruled ‘out’ of Thursday’s game at Iowa State due to lingering concussion symptoms. Ash sustained his first concussion in a 40-21 loss at BYU in Week 2. After sitting out a loss to Ole Miss, he returned to start in a 31-21 win over Kansas State. However, Ash suffered a second head injury against the Wildcats and didn’t return in the second half. This means Case McCoy will get the starting nod for the second time this season. Ash has seven touchdown passes compared to two interceptions this season, while McCoy has one TD pass and hasn’t been intercepted. Also, Texas’s best wide receiver, Mike Davis, is ‘questionable’ against the Cylcones. Davis sprained his ankle in the loss to Ole Miss and didn’t play against Kansas St. In the first three games, Davis had 20 receptions for 223 yards and four TDs.

Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen returned to the lineup in last week’s 45-33 loss to Texas A&M. Allen threw for 282 yards and three TDs against the Aggies, but he was picked off twice. The Razorbacks took the cash as 13.5-point home underdogs. Allen missed a 28-24 loss at Read more


Tags: College Football Brian Edwards



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