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MLB Handicapping: Giants return to earth, see 9.5-game lead evaporate

06.30.2014     08:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
After opening June 6-1 and taking a 9.5-game lead in the National League West the San Francisco Giants were poised to run away with the division. But things have taken a dramatic turn of the last three weeks. The offense went cold, the pitching staff regressesed, and following yesterday's loss to Cincinnati, the Giants are now tied with the Dodgers thanks to a 4-15 slide. To make matters worse, closer Sergio Romo was demoted and the team will close by committee moving forward.

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

06.29.2014     08:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Colorado (De La Rosa) at Milwaukee (Gallardo)
Recommendation: See analysis

Three starts ago, Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa left early due to some sort of back issue and yet the Rockies continue to throw him on regular rest due to a depleted staff. Over those three starts (two of the three away from Coors), De La Rosa has allowed 20 hits, 13 runs, and shows an ugly 7-7 K-to-BB ratio. And while he's away from Coors this afternoon, he faces the powerful right-hand heavy lineup of Milwaukee – De La Rosa of course much weaker vs. the right-handed bat (.275 BAA, .808 OPS). Simply put, he isn't right and I've been active in finding ways to fade him. Yovanni Gallardo has been under-the-radar this season as he no longer flashes top-tier stuff. But the results have been solid (3.23 ERA, 3.62 xFIP). He's changed his arsenal some and it has resulted in a career-best 53.3% groundball rate. I still think Gallarado has been fortunate based on the diminished stuff but he’s obviously a more Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

06.28.2014     07:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Atlanta (Santana) -115 at Philadelphia (Hernandez) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over

Atlanta's Ervin Santana's overall body of work is solid but we've see the boost of moving from the American League to National League wear off some of late. And not only is the league starting to catch up to Santana but he's showing some absolutely wicked R vs. L splits. Against righties, he's absolutely lights out with a 3.64 K/BB ratio, .210 BAA, and .560 OPS. Against lefties a much different story with a 2.31 K/BB ratio, .335 BAA, .946 OPS. And based on what I saw on the lineup card for today, the Phillies' first seven hitters will come from the left side. So with this being Philly's third look at Santana (second in less than a week), it appears they are in good position to plate some runs this afternoon. Roberto Hernandez's numbers are right in line with who he is as a pitcher at this stage in his career. The 4.41 ERA is real and so is the ugly 62-to-42 K/BB ratio in 79.2 innings of work. Read more

Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies Andrew Lange

Sports Betting Podcast 6-27-2014 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

06.27.2014     11:27 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Both handicappers broke down the entire MLB card.

Today's segments
Full Show

Teddy Covers - National League

Erin Rynning - American League

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers Erin Rynning

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners

06.27.2014     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cleveland (Bauer) -107 at Seattle (Young) O/U 8
Recommendation: Under

Chris Young toes the rubber for the Mariners tonight. He's a sabermetric nightmare at this point – .209 BABIP, 82.2% LOB, and 5.65 xFIP. His current path is undoubtedly unsustainable but Young has been defying a lot of these numbers for years and his style is a perfect fit for Safeco Field. And he's actually slightly tougher on the left-handed bats (.687 OPS vs. R, .657 OPS vs. L) which is key vs. Cleveland. I'm much more accepting of Young at home whereas on the road, he should be on every bettors' radar as a fade candidate. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer has premium stuff but he's still learning on the fly with only 80 MLB innings. The talent is there to go out and throw quality starts on a consistent basis but the next step to above average isn't that far away. He's been hampered a bit by fly balls and home runs which shouldn't be as much of an issue tonight in Seattle. Also note he's throwing on extra rest – Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Seattle Mariners Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: Projected run differentials

06.26.2014     11:28 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article from FanGraphs on expected run differentials. Through the first half of the season, Milwaukee, Kansas City, and New York Yankees have "overachieved" while Colorado, Chicago Cubs, and Tampa Bay have "underachieved.” And then there is Texas which according to the BaseRuns metric has been the worst team in baseball.

The A’s are just trouncing their opponents, and no team in baseball has played better. But the A’s are also a good reminder of why BaseRuns is more useful to look at than pythagorean record, because their run differential suggests that they’ve actually underperformed this year. By pythag, they’ve played like one of the best teams in baseball, and have gotten “unlucky” to only be 48-30.

Tags: MLB

Sports Betting Podcast 6-26-2014 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Ian Cameron

06.26.2014     10:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Ian Cameron. Teddy broke down tonight's MLB card while Ian covered Canadian Football League Week 1 action.

Today's segments
Full Show

Teddy Covers - MLB Night Games

Ian Cameron - CFL Week 1

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB CFL Teddy Covers Ian Cameron

Sports Betting Podcast 6-25-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning

06.25.2014     10:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning. Rob and host Andrew Lange talked Golden Nugget College Football Games of the Year. Erin broke down tonight's MLB contests.

Today's segments
Full Show

Rob Veno - College Football Golden Nugget GOYs

Erin Rynning - MLB Night Games

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football MLB Rob Veno Erin Rynning

MLB Handicapping: Arizona close to officially quitting on the season

06.25.2014     08:38 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Let the season's first fire sale commence! The Arizona Diamondbacks are 33-47, 13.5 games out of first in the National League West, and an NL-worst -14.5 units year-to-date. Needless to say, they'll be trying to move as many bodies as possible – though as one scout pointed out, it won't be easy.  This also gives us an excuse to link to and make fun of the Diamondbacks for giving up on Trevor Bauer who has better stuff than their entire starting rotation combined.

"Based on the last couple of years of being a .500 club and this year with the injuries we have and our record," Towers said, "we have to look at being more open-minded of moving some contracts and some veteran players for younger players."

"Not a lot of pieces to move," said a scout whose coverage includes the Diamondbacks. "Lefties out of the Read more

Tags: MLB Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB Handicapping: Tampa's Price irked by trade talks

06.25.2014     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
After taking three of four from Houston, the Tampa Bay Rays are back to stinking up the joint with back-to-back home losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They'll try to avoid the sweep this afternoon with ace David Price on the hill. Price says he hasn't been in the best of moods because of all of the trade talk. Despite that, he's pitched well of late with 49 Ks, 77 swinging strikes, and a 2.58 ERA over his last five starts. 

"I mean, obviously I think about it," Price said. "That's why I've been in a bad mood the last week and a half. I think about it. You guys know that. And it's nothing I really want to talk about. I don't have an answer for you guys. I don't know where I'm going. I don't know when I'm going. So there's nothing I can really comment on."

Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Pittsburgh Pirates


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