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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success
10.26.2011 11:46 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
We won both of our top-play 20* Big Drives in Week 7 when the Houston Texans (+3) destroyed the Tennessee Titans 41-7 and the Arizona-Pittsburgh game went over the total in a 32-20 Steelers win. The Chargers managed to blow yet another game for us but we still posted a profitable Week 7 in the NFL.
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. The Saints outrushed the Colts 218-155, so when both teams rush for over 150 yards and the higher rushing total won the game, I’ll count that as a SU/ATS winner. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards in victory have covered the pointspread 72% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 23-4 SU and 20-6 ATS (77%).
Turnovers cost the Redskins, Raiders and Colts in defeat, as those teams were all -3 or greater in the turnover column. In fact, teams that are -3 or greater are 1-13 ATS this season (0-14 SU). Teams that are -2 or greater in the turnover column are 4-24-1 ATS (6-23 SU), so turnovers are proving once again to have a significant impact on teams winning and/or covering the pointspread. Rather than beat yourself up over a loss with your team suffering turnover
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NFL Handicapping: Erin Rynning discusses Week 7 line moves
10.23.2011 07:19 AM
ER Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports
Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning was featured in Chad Millman's recent article on the NFL. Below is what ER had to say about
Week 7's line moves
.
Matchup: Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers
Line moves: Panthers opened at minus-3, currently favored by 2.5.
ER says: "This was a bad number. I had made that game a pick 'em. Carolina has gotten a lot of love but they haven't been able to win games so to close the deal and win by three you are asking a lot. Plus Washington's run game matches up well with Carolina, which has had a hard time controlling inside rushers."
Matchup: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
Line moves: Dolphins opened at minus-3, currently favored by one.
ER says: "The Hilton actually has this game at pick 'em. The problem is everyone watched Miami play on Monday night. I made the game 2.5 and I have been on Miami all year. I have paid for it. My number has obviously not caught up. They are banged up in the secondary. Plus
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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success
10.20.2011 05:46 AM
Printer Friendly
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A few unfortunate losses in Week 6 and a push on the NY Giants cost us a winning week when the G-Men failed to punch in a touchdown on second and third down at Buffalo’s 1-yard line late. The Bills were able to overcome a 2-0 turnover disadvantage for the pointspread push in a 27-24 loss.
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards in Week 6 went 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS and are 26-12 ATS this season. Turnovers cost the Panthers, Colts and Saints in defeat, as those teams were all -3 or more in the turnover column. In fact, those -3 or greater are 1-10 ATS this season (0-11 SU). Teams -2 or greater are 4-22-1 ATS (6-21 SU). Turnovers are proving once again to have a significant impact on teams winning and/or covering numbers.
My experience and unprecedented past success is in large part based on my ability to project which teams will have more success controlling the ball, line of scrimmage and running the football. Invariably, I’m always asked (or told) that the NFL game has evolved into a greater passing game; and after some of the strong offensive showings and passing attacks in the early season, who could argue? After all, there have been 10
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NFL Handicapping: Week 6 Stats and ATS Notes
10.16.2011 07:23 AM
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We’ve released our
biggest card of the NFL season
Sunday, and it comes with a guarantee: produce profit or the rest of October is Free! Coming off a 4-0 sweep of the sides last week, we’ve found our groove and Week 6 looks like a great card.
Philadelphia
at
Washington
– What a nightmare for the Dream Team! The Eagles have outgained all five opponents yet stand 1-4 SU. Combined with a 0-4 ATS run, Philly is desperate for a win. Can they get it together against the rested Redskins playing with revenge after last year’s embarrassing 59-28 loss on MNF? Vick has to clean up act and stop turning the ball over as the Eagles are a league-worst -10 in differential. NFL teams off 0-4 SU and ATS run as betting favorites are just 1-8 ATS their next game. Point of attack profile shows the Eagles leading the league in rushing at 165 ypg and 5.8 ypr while the Redskins average
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Detroit Lions
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NFL Betting Alert: More offensive line injuries for Philadelphia Eagles
10.14.2011 01:27 PM
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Philadelphia
-2 at
Washington
O/U 47
Offensive line injuries
continue to mount
for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Starting left tackle Jason Peters is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury he suffered in a loss to the 49ers two weeks ago, and his replacement, 6-foot-9 King Dunlap, missed a second consecutive day of practice Friday because of back spasms.
The two injuries have left the Eagles with only two healthy offensive tackles -- Todd Herremans, the usual right tackle, and Winston Justice, who missed all of training camp because of offseason knee surgery and hasn't played all year.
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NFL Handicapper Tips: Using Yards Per Play and Yards Per Point
10.14.2011 11:58 AM
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As we enter Week 6 of the NFL season, let’s take a look at two offensive categories that may help you in your handicapping and view of offensive efficiency. Yards per point (yppt) is a simple efficiency calculation where you just divide total yards by points scored, and the lower the result, the better the number. The average YPPT for all NFL teams in 2010 was 15.25.
Top offensive teams in yards per point (average amount of yards a team travels per point scored)
49ers – 10.6 (surprise!)
Bills – 11.6
Seahawks – 11.8
Lions - 11.9
NY Jets - 12.3
Packers - 12.4
Raiders – 14.0
NY Giants – 14.1
Saints – 14.4
Worst offensive teams in yards per point
Rams - 31.2
Dolphins – 25.6
Jaguars – 22.9
Browns 21.7
Redskins – 21.4
Cowboys – 21.1
Chiefs 19.7
Bucs – 19.3
Steelers – 18.3
Top offensive teams in yards production and efficiency
Patriots – 495 yards per game (ypg) at 7.2 yards per play (yppl)
Saints – 452 ypg at 6.2
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NFL Handicapping: Dallas Cowboys healthier after much needed bye week
10.11.2011 12:59 PM
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Dallas
at
New England
-7 O/U 55
Dallas' bye week couldn't have come at a better time as the team was able to
improve the health
of a number of key players. The secondary practiced together for the first time since early training camp and wide receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are near full strength. The team also had a scoreboard installed at practice to better simulate late game situations. Good idea Big D.
“It’s definitely exciting to see what everybody’s going to do now that everybody’s back,” said Alan Ball, who has started once and played plenty but now slips back to being the fourth cornerback. “I think everybody is going to do just fine getting back in and getting into our system.”
“You guys have heard me
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NFL Handicapping: Fairway Jay Week 3 Betting Recap
09.28.2011 07:58 AM
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For over a decade, Fairway Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing pointspread winners.
Week 3 NFL favorites went 10-6 straight up and 5-11 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 20-26-2 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. There were eight division games in Week 3, and home underdogs went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. For the season, home underdogs are 6-7 SU and 8-4-1 ATS. The over-the-total trend finally cooled off with a 6-10 O/U mark. Overall, totals are now 28-18-2 O/U on the season.
Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (30 or more yards) went 6-5 ATS for the week and my rushing guidelines have now gone 18-11 ATS. The Raiders busted loose on the ground again with 234 yards rushing (7.3 ypr), led by Darren McFadden’s 177 yards on 9.0 ypr. Impressive performance against a Jets defense that allowed the most yards rushing in a
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NFL Handicapping: Bettors strong on underdog Washington Redskins
09.26.2011 01:10 PM
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Washington
at
Dallas
-3 O/U 45
Snippet from Chad Millman's preview for tonight’s Monday Night Football game. Hilton oddsmaker Jay Kornegay felt that the line would come down to Dallas -3 (which it has) and
potentially close -3.5
.
Jay Kornegay says: "We finally posted a line on Monday night's game between the Redskins and Cowboys. I can't remember the last time we waited this long to post a line on a Monday night game, which shows you exactly the impact that these injured players have on this contest.
"Approximately 26 hours before game time we posted the Cowboys as a 4.5-point favorite over the Redskins with a total of 45. The current line is down to minus-3.5 and the total is up a half to 45.5. The Cowboys are a public team and they're playing at home, so there is no doubt
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NFL Handicapping: Fairway Jay Week 2 Betting Recap
09.21.2011 11:42 AM
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For over a decade, Fairway Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing pointspread winners
.
Week 2 NFL favorites went 13-3 SU and 8-7-1 ATS. For the season, betting favorites are 15-15-2 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. No division games in Week 2, and home underdogs went 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS. For the season, home underdogs are 4-5 SU and 5-3-1 ATS. Totals had another big week for over bettors, going 10-5-1 O/U and for the season 22-8-2 O/U.
Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (30 or more yards) went 3-6 ATS for the worst week in a decade of my keeping records. It was just the fifth losing week the last 10 years where teams with a meaningful rushing advantage posted a losing week overall. In Week 1, this rushing advantage resulted in a 9-0 ATS week, making the season 12-6 ATS. In fact, even more rare was the ATS record when rushing for at least
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