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College Football Betting: ACC Coastal News and Notes

07.24.2013     12:30 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Rob Veno was a guest on today's Sportsmemo Podcast talking about the ACC Coastal Division. You can listen to the segment here. Rob was kind enough to pass along his notes from the show. Enjoy.

Schedule (4 Non-Conference, 8 Conference) – (6 Division, 2 Non Division)

Virginia Tech – QB (Logan Thomas)
Coastal - Tough: @ Georgia Tech, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia
Atlantic - Easy: vs. Maryland, @ Boston College
Non-Conference – Semi Tough: N vs. Alabama (Atlanta), @ East Carolina, VS. Marshall
1 – New OC/QB coach Scott Loeffler (Auburn OC LY and Temple OC in 2011) – Hope is to develop more of a running game.
2 – Defense returns 9 starters (actually 10 w/ ILB Edwards) including the entire front 4 and the entire secondary (all 8 are upperclassmen).
3 – Pass rushing LB Tariq Edwards back after missing L6 games due to injury. 

Miami (FL) – QB (Stephen Morris)
Coastal - Easy: @ North Read more

Tags: College Football ACC Rob Veno

Canadian Football League Week 4 Betting Recap

07.24.2013     11:26 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 4 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter, team-by-team analysis...

Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU/ATS)
Montreal’s offense finally showed up but the problem was it was only for a quarter! Having put up just 18 points on offense in their two prior games, the Alouettes scored 24 points in the first quarter to take a 24-0 lead against Calgary. They then proceeded to score three points the rest of the game, coughing up the lead and losing 38-27 as 7-point road underdogs – a performance that certainly made Montreal bettors nauseous. The defense, which had been solid in their first three games, was shredded both against the run and pass and special teams played a major role in the loss. Montreal’s Noel Devine looked to have a sure kickoff return touchdown only to have Calgary’s Fred Bennett track him down and punch the football out of his arms. Calgary recovered it in the end zone for a game changing touchback. A touchdown there would have given Montreal the lead back but instead Calgary used it to further their momentum and put the game away. The Alouettes are quickly becoming a comedy of Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron

MLB Gambling Free Pick: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

07.23.2013     10:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
San Diego (Ross) +110 at Milwaukee (Hand) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: San Diego

The Brewers came out of the All-Star break and swept a series against the Marlins.  Don’t be fooled!  Milwaukee notched those three wins only because Miami’s anemic offense didn’t plate a single run for the entire series. 

The Padres aren’t offensive juggernauts, but unlike Miami, their roster isn’t loaded with a bunch of guys who should still be playing at Triple-A.  They’ve scored five runs or more three times in four games on their post-All-Star break road trip, while averaging just shy of five runs per game in their last seven road tilts.  Big middle of the order bats Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin are both heating up right now.

The Brewers won’t have Ryan Braun for the rest of the season, and they’re expected to be without cleanup hitter Carlos Gomez tonight either.  With Aramis Ramirez and Cory Hart Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Three Months of National League Boredom

07.23.2013     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was watching the MLB Network for awhile this evening.  I think it was Al Leiter who pointed out that the Atlanta Braves hadn’t done much of anything since starting the season 12-1. We’ve been talking about the Braves' mediocre play for awhile on these pages. Then I started thinking, you know…NOBODY in that division has done anything since the Braves started 12-1!

NL East Since April 16 (when Braves were 12-1)

Atlanta 44-42

Philadelphia 43-42

Washington 40-45

NY Mets 36-46

Miami 33-50

If the Braves hadn’t rallied in the ninth inning tonight in New York they would have been 50/50 over three months, a half game worse than Philadelphia during that long span. Note that the quintet as a whole is 29 games under .500 over those three months. All games against each other split out…so they’ve really been outclassed against outsiders.

The NL Central has been pretty well Read more

Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Stat Intelligence

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners

07.22.2013     10:28 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Cleveland (Jimenez) at Seattle (Harang) -110 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Seattle

The single longest current winning streak in major league baseball belongs to the under-the-radar Seattle Mariners, a massive source of profits for their supporters.  Seattle’s bats are hitting better right now than they have all season, by a fairly wide margin.  They’ve scored 11, 8, 4, 7, 8, 6, 4, 10 4 and 12 runs in their last ten games.  In fact, the Mariners have scored four runs or more in 16 of their last 17 and 20 of their last 23 ballgames while averaging well over five runs per game during that span! 

Yet despite the Mariners’ offensive explosion, their 11-5 record in their last 16 ballgames and their winning record overall at home since losing their first two series back in April, we’re still seeing very little support in the betting markets for this squad.  How else can we explain the pick ‘em price to support Seattle at home this Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Cleveland Indians Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Tips on how to bet post-All-Star break MLB

07.22.2013     10:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I wrote a similar article to this one last year at this time.  At the risk of plagiarizing myself, I thought many of the points I made last year are still extremely pertinent when it comes to post All-Star break baseball in 2013. 

NFL training camps open up around the country this week.  The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind.  Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now.  We’ve got a maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore.  Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up.  Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks.  College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences.

So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football?  After all, we’re less than a week out from the All Star break, with more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play.  There isn’t a team in either league that has completed more than 100 games of their 162-game schedule as I write this.

Yet any sportsbook director in town will tell Read more

Tags: MLB NFL College Football Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Breaking From the Gate...After the Break...

07.22.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It can be tempting to overreact to stuff that happens when Major League Baseball resumes after the All-Star Break. Fans and analysts are playing extra close attention since they spent a few days thinking about the pennant races and how various teams may care…or not care about the rest of the season. But, the tone is often set for what follows by that first weekend. We won’t overreact today…but we’ll take a quick look at how all 30 offenses performed this past weekend using our “four-max” approach.

If you’re new to the blog, that’s a methodology that:

*Only counts scoring in the first five innings

*Stops counting once a team has reached FOUR runs

We do that to reward consistent scoring rather than the occasional explosion that can come if the opposing starting pitcher just doesn’t have anything that day…nor the lousy long relievers that replaced him. This started as an effort to gain context for Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: NFL Summer Review

07.20.2013     06:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Yesterday we reviewed Drive Point numbers and schedule strengths for the AFC (you can read that here if you missed it). Today, as promised, we’re back to do the NFC.

It was a really strange year in the NFC…and we have to talk about that strangeness before running the numbers. Those of you who have seen our estimated Power Rating scale in all sports know that I generally make 85 championship caliber…and rank everybody with that in mind. Last year, through most of the season, the NFC consisted of:

*About 6 teams who were 82-ish, and not consistent enough to make a run at 85

*About 9 teams who were 78-79-ish much of the time

*Arizona, who was well off the pace

San Francisco peaked at the right time…and rode that all the way to the Super Bowl. Seattle peaked late, and could make a legitimate case for being within arm’s length of 85 at the very Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: AFC Summer Review

07.20.2013     06:28 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stats Intelligence

Our main stat of focus last year in the NFL is something we call “Drive Points.” Those are points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. It’s a stat I’ve been keeping by hand ever since USA Today first started running boxscores that itemized scoring drives many years ago. They do a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to defining “true” offense and defense because:

*You don’t get credit for non-offensive points

*You don’t get credit for cheap field position points off of turnovers

*You have to drive the field REPEATEDLY to grade out well

Good offenses move the ball and turn their drives into points. Good defenses prevent opponents from doing that.

I don’t want to suggest this is “everything.” The risk/reward ratio as expressed in turnover differential is also very important. The Detroit Lions put up a lot of Drive Points last year, but turned the ball over a million times in the process. Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

CFL Week Three Betting Recap

07.16.2013     10:33 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 3 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter team-by-team analysis of this week’s action…

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU and ATS):
It was a case of déjà vu for Montreal in Week 3 with the offense being dormant yet again. The offensive line remained unable to execute their protection packages and blocking schemes and it resulted in another long night for 40 year old QB Anthony Calvillo who didn’t receive enough time to step up and make plays in the pocket. Montreal scored just 7 points offensively. The other TD came on a return of a blocked punt. The defense was solid again but when the offense is as brutally inept as they are right now, there is only so much they can do. The body language is getting worse from the players and from head coach Dan Hawkins who continues to look like he may be in over his head. Montreal received even more bad news after this game with the season ending injury to veteran right guard Scott Flory. An injury to one of the few experienced players on that beleaguered O-Line is the last thing Montreal needed as they prepare to head to Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron


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