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NCAAF Handicapper Free Play: Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats
10.20.2011 06:07 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Penn State
-4 at
Northwestern
O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over
In the midst of a four-game losing streak, Northwestern has been one of the more disappointing teams in college football this season. The main reason for their downfall has been defense or lack thereof as they’ve surrendered 142 the last four weeks. By routinely allowing big plays (nearly 20 plays of 30+ yards) it has translated into a host of high scoring games. Meanwhile, the offense is starting to hit its stride (933 total yards last two games) with senior signal caller Dan Persa. They’re a difficult team to defend with a multitude of formations – all made possible because of a sturdy offensive line.
To date, Penn State has been the epitome of an “under team” with a 0-6-1 O/U mark. Only an ultra-low total of 41 (push) last week against Purdue kept the Nittany Lions from cashing unders in all seven games. The offense continues to be a work in progress
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College Football
Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern Wildcats
Big Ten
Erin Rynning
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Teddy Covers' AFC Week 6 Betting News and Notes
10.18.2011 07:20 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC Tidbits from Week 6.
Buffalo
The Bills defense entered the game ranked #31 out of 32 NFL teams in yards per play allowed. They had no pass rush today, and allowed wide open receivers to run amuck in the secondary. No sacks + no turnovers created (after returning an interception for a TD in each of their last three games) = a loss. Looking for yet another reason NOT to take a running back in the first round of the NFL draft under any circumstances? Look at Fred Jackson's career compared to Knowshon Moreno, CJ Spiller, Ryan Matthews, Donald Brown and Marshawn Lynch -- all first round picks in the last five years. There’s certainly no shortage of first round underachievers, while Jackson went undrafted. His 80 yard TD burst in the first quarter to tie the game speaks volumes about the Bills big play ability. Ryan
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Teddy Covers
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Fairway Jay's Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 6
10.18.2011 06:29 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter: @FairwayJay
Week 6 NFL favorites went 11-2 SU (SU) and 8-4-1 against the spread (ATS). For the season, betting favorites are 44-43-3 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Five division games in Week 6 and division ‘Dogs went 1-4 ATS. Home underdogs went 1-1 SU/ATS. For the season, home underdogs are 10-17 SU and 14-12-1 ATS. Scoring was down significantly for the first time this season, as O/U went 3-10 and now 50-38-2 YTD. Scoring is at an all-time high with 4,088 points scored in 2011;
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NFL Handicapper Free Pick: St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers
10.16.2011 07:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
St. Louis
+14 at
Green Bay
O/U 47
Recommendation: St. Louis
I’m not going to write some BS about the Rams being a good but underachieving team. They’re not. But there’s money to be made in the NFL year after year supporting bad teams when they step up in class against disinterested foes. ‘Hold your nose’ bets have a place in the NFL, and that’s exactly the situation we’ve got on Sunday.
First, let’s establish that St Louis is coming to play. Winless teams coming off a bye week are a long term profitable subset to support. In fact, teams that are 0-4 or worse off a bye are a whopping 22-3 ATS! It makes sense as those teams spend two weeks hearing how bad they are, and then tend to come out fully focused in that first opportunity to get off the schneid. At the same time, the betting markets often write them off for dead.
Similarly, double-digit favorites in the NFL are a long term profitable subset to bet against!
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College Football LIVE In-Game Betting Blog 10/15/2011
10.15.2011 07:41 AM
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Second half kick-off list
That will wrap it up for today. Good luck with tonight's plays.
(2:32 PT) Over bettors rejoice! Back-to-back kock return touchdowns in Texas-Oklahoma State game. OSU up 28-17.
(2:26 PT) Line move alert: Money coming in on Florida....now -3 at Pinnacle and Grande.
(2:24 PT)
Rob Veno recommends Northern Illinois Over 33.5 2nd half.
(2:16 PT)
Andrew Lange recommends Northern Illinois -0.5 2nd half.
(2:10 PT) From Teddy:
First estimates of South Carolina safety...$30 million changed hands.
(2:08 PT) Two blocked FGs in final five minutes of Rutgers-Navy. Midshipmen block one with 30 seconds left as Rutgers was up 21-20. Navy cashes +3.5/+3 tickets.
(1:56 PT) Washington no punts 1st H, 5-5 on 3rd downs. Up 38-10 at half on Colorado.
(1:53 PT)
Teddy Covers recommends South Florida -4.5 2nd half.
(1:37 PT) Bloodbath in Champaign: 161 yards combined, Buckeyes up 3-0. No turnovers either. Approaching halftime.
(1:35 PT) From Marty:
Until this current drive, which started at the Miami-OH 2-yard line, the RedHawks had run 24 plays for zero total yards according to the radio guy.
(1:28 PT) And just like that, Georgia Tech answers with back-to-back TDs to tie it up against Virginia.
(1:12 PT) Not a good start for Northern Illinois. INT inside WMU's 10, fumbled punt, running into kicker and now holding on KO. Lucky to be down 6-0. Huskies a bit too hyped early.
(12:58 PT) Bye week prior to Georgia Tech
Virginia up 14-0 early.
(12:38 PT) Zoinks. South Carolina goes intentional safety up 14-10. Final score 14-12...Mississippi State +3 and +2.5 tickets cash. Wow.
(12:33 PT) South Carolina defense comes up big. Mississippi State driving down 14-10. Gamecocks force INT. Looks like Spurrier will survive sans Garcia.
(12:29 PT) Wow. Pittsburgh fails to score a conventional touchdown in 26-14 loss to Utah. KO return and punt block only scores. 120 yards, 2.0
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College Football Free Odds Pick: Central Florida Knights at SMU Mustangs
10.15.2011 07:33 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Central Florida
+3.5 at
SMU
O/U 46.5
Recommendation: Central Florida
The betting markets have soured on Central Florida following their third consecutive ATS loss last week. This after the money poured in on George O’Leary’s squad in each of the previous three games. Against Florida International, heavy UCF money drove the line from -4.5 to -7. At BYU, UCF money drove the line from +3.5 down to +1. And last week, against Marshall, more of the same as the line went from -14.5 to -20. Central Florida lost two of those games outright, and never sniffed a spread cover in last week’s 16-6 win over Marshall.
That gives us the ideal elements in play to support the Golden Knights as they travel to SMU on Saturday. Instead of laying points, we’re taking points. Instead of being a hot wise guy team, taking big money every week, the Knights are now officially on the ‘wise guy’ fade list. That folks is the definition of
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East Coast bookmakers say legalized sports betting won't hurt business
10.14.2011 08:25 AM
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Local bookmakers in Philadelphia and New Jersey claim the
regulation of sports betting
won't hinder business.
"You got a big-time gambler, he's not going to bet with a casino book," a retired bookmaker said as he sat eating a burger washed down with a beer over lunch in a South Jersey pub recently. "Even in Vegas, I know guys who bet, but not with the casinos.
"These guys, they bet big money, and when they win, they don't want somebody else going in their pocket."
When a defense attorney asked, "Did you take any bets yesterday?" the bookie said, "Yes."
"Do you intend to take any bets today?" the lawyer asked sarcastically,
"Depends on what time I get out of here," he said.
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NCAAF Gambling: Florida Atlantic plays first home game of season in new stadium
10.14.2011 08:00 AM
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Western Kentucky
at
Florida Atlantic
-2.5 O/U 43.5
Florida Atlantic's run of road games ends this week as they play host to Western Kentucky. And not only is it the Owls’ first home game but it will mark the first at the team's
new $70 million stadium
. The new facility was the final task for 77-year-old head coach Howard Schnellenberger who is slated to retire following the 2011 season. Perhaps a good spot for a big effort from the Owls as Western Kentucky comes in off a rare overtime victory over Middle Tennessee State.
"My dream fell on deaf ears," he says, a smile lifting his mustache. "Hallelujah, amen, glory be — the university dispelled my first thoughts and came up with their
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College Football Gambling Preview: Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers
10.13.2011 12:46 PM
Otto Sports
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Florida
at
Auburn
(4 pm PT, ESPN)
CRIS Opener:
Florida -1.5 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current:
Florida -2 O/U 49.5
Rob Veno Power Rating:
Auburn pk
Marty Otto’s Betting Take:
The fact we’ve seen these two offenses scuffle the past two games shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The Gators lost their starting quarterback and were up against two of the most dominant defenses in all of college football. The Tigers were dealing with injuries to key skill position talent while on the road against two good defenses as well. But perhaps those dreadful showings serve as a positive for those looking to play the over this weekend.
What these two offenses lack in passing production right now they can potentially make up for with explosive running attacks on Saturday. Granted both defenses will likely scheme to stop the run first and foremost but will
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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success
10.13.2011 11:37 AM
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We went 4-0 on our NFL side plays in Week 5, and my experience and unprecedented past success is in large part based on my ability to project which teams will have more success controlling the ball, line of scrimmage and running the football. Invariably, I’m always asked (or told) that the NFL game has evolved into a greater passing game; and after some of the strong offensive showings and passing attacks in the early season, who could argue? After all, there have been ten individual 400-yard passing performances in 2011; tied for the 4th most of any SEASON in NFL history (13 in 1986 and 2004, and 11 in 2010). Projecting good and bad quarterback play is also part of my evaluation and handicap of a match-up. However, it has been and will continue to be this professional handicapper’s opinion that rushing yards are more meaningful stats overall than passing yards (when projecting ATS results), which can be accumulated against soft coverage or prevent defenses when a team is behind by margin or playing catch-up.
I also keep track of yards-per-play (ypp) and yards-per-point stats to help me determine a team’s offensive efficiency and how they will fair
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