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NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 8

10.30.2013     07:38 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Welcome to a sportsbooks worst nightmare
This was not the week to be a bookmaker. The public, which tends to bet favorites and overs, had a grand time in Week 8. Favorites went 8-5 ATS and totals were also 8-5 O/U. Thankfully, sportsbooks got the desired result on Monday night when the Rams and under both cashed but it still didn’t prevent an overall tough week for the books. Four of the biggest public teams in the NFL – all favorites – overcame sluggish starts to grab pointspread covers: New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos – and three of the four games involving those teams sailed over the total. This is just more proof that it is no longer safe nor practical to simply fade the public. The public doesn’t always lose and it is something that bettors must understand as they attempt to beat the NFL.

The risk of overreacting
It’s easy to overreact to results in the NFL. It happens all the time and even I find myself guilty of doing so. I’ve singled out the Monday night game that likely shocked many bettors when the Seattle Seahawks not only failed Read more

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams New England Patriots Ian Cameron

Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Seahawks win but fail to cover vs. Rams

10.29.2013     06:36 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Well, it turned out to be a compelling fourth quarter. But, that was because the Seattle Seahawks basically gave themselves a bye week in terms of preparation and intensity. Their offense was invisible outside of a long bomb that connected (80 yards on one play, 55 the whole rest of the game!). Their defense…enjoying a mismatch against a poor quarterback…allowed short little stuff all night…until fatigue on the final drive almost stuck them with an embarrassing loss.

St. Louis made it down near the goal line in the final moments…trailing 14-9. They couldn’t figure out how to punch it in.

For Seattle…this goes on the list with other ugly road wins at Carolina and at Houston. Maybe this close-to-the-vest, “let’s not show anything we don’t have to show until the playoffs” approach is going to pay off. They’re 7-1 even with a few lame results…and are still very well positioned to earn the #1 seed Read more

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams Stat Intelligence

NFL Betting News: Houston to start Keenum vs. Indianapolis

10.28.2013     02:19 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Indianapolis -2.5 at Houston O/U 44.5

Looks like Houston's Case Keenum will start Sunday's game against Indianapolis. Keenum finished 15-of-25 for 271 yards and a touchdown in the Texans' Week 7 loss at Kansas City.

"Gary loves him,” a source told CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora last week. “He's extremely cerebral. He doesn't have that big arm but he fits their mold -- he can extend plays and get out of the way. He understands the system. That's going to be a tough environment but he shows a pulse and moves the team some, I bet he sticks with him after the [Week 8] bye.”

Tags: NFL Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts

College Football Handicapping: Michigan defense promises better showing vs. Michigan State

10.28.2013     11:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Michigan at Michigan State -4.5

Michigan talks about prepping for Michigan State. The Wolverines are confident their defensive showing against Indiana (572 yards allowed) was an aberration.

“I know we’ll have Michigan defense back on that field the way it’s supposed to be when we play that game (at MSU),” Mattison said. “Especially coming off (that) kind of performance, we’ve got a lot to prove.”

Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans Big Ten

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC News and Notes from Week 8

10.28.2013     07:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC thoughts and opinions from Week 8.

Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton looked really good last week against the Lions, and he looked every bit as good here on a five TD afternoon. The Jets played their corners in single coverage for most of the game, and Cincinnati’s receivers won the vast majority of those one-on-one battles. Cinci’s offensive line kept Dalton’s uniform clean for extended stretches, giving him time to throw. And Dalton showed great accuracy on his deep balls, something he hasn’t shown very often as a pro. It’s surely worth noting that Dalton only targeted AJ Green on seven of his thirty pass attempts, spreading the ball among his playmakers; something that’s been a problem for him in the past.

The Bengals have the requisite offensive playmakers to make a deep January run. Their defense was stellar; effectively blitzing (and rattling) Geno Smith, creating turnovers, Read more

Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins Oakland Raiders Cleveland Browns Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers

NFL Week 8 Betting Recap

10.28.2013     07:08 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Week 8 recap...

If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness.

San Francisco (-16) 42, Jacksonville 10

S. Francisco: 398 yards, 7.2 per-play, 1 turnovers, 67% third downs

Jacksonville: 318 yards, 4.5 per-play, 1 turnovers, 28% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: San Francisco 221, Jacksonville 90

Passing Stats: San Francisco 11-17-0-177, Jacksonville 29-45-0-228

Drive Points: San Francisco 28, Jacksonville 3

Stat Score: San Francisco 28, Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

Football Handicapping: MAC Totals, SMU, and NFL Correlated Parlays

10.25.2013     12:26 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Is there any bet in college football right now that is more of a “no brainer” than playing Mid-American Conference games under the total? There have been 22 MAC league games played heading into Saturday’s slate and the under has gone 17-5 for a winning percentage of 77.2%. The only team in this conference that has recorded more over results than under is Eastern Michigan whose horrendous defense (49.7 points allowed vs. MAC) has led them to a 3-0 O/U mark in league play. Akron, Central Michigan, Massachusetts, Miami (Ohio) and Northern Illinois all have yet to record a conference game over the total.

SMU has certainly had their troubles this season. They’re mostly beaten up by detractors for being a poor team but from a totals perspective right now, you have to love them. The staff of offensive “evil geniuses” that has been assembled in Dallas has given “over” backers the gift of five winning tickets in six tries and they are just beginning to hit stride. After struggling behind QB Garrett Gilbert for the majority of their first four games, the “Air Raid/Run & Shoot” combo scheme has cranked out 86 points and Read more

Tags: College Football NFL MAC SMU Mustangs Rob Veno

NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

10.25.2013     12:20 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Dallas at Detroit
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Detroit -3 O/U 51
CRIS Current: Detroit -3 O/U 50.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Detroit -1.5
Brian Edwards' Recommendation: Detroit

A pair of NFC contenders will collide Sunday at Ford Field in Detroit, where the Lions will take on Dallas on FOX. Most betting shops have installed Detroit (4-3 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) as a three-point favorite (with a -120 price tag) with a total of 51.

Gamblers can take the Cowboys on the money line for a +145 payout (risk $100 to win $145). For first-half wagers, the Lions are favored by -1.5/-2 with a total of 26.

Dallas (4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS) has won back-to-back games, including its first road win. After smashing Washington 31-16 two weeks ago, the Cowboys won 17-3 at Philadelphia as three-point road underdogs.

The Dallas defense knocked Nick Foles out of the game with a concussion and then Read more

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Detroit Lions Brian Edwards

College Football Betting Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas A&M Aggies

10.25.2013     07:11 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M
Saturday, 9:20 am PT - ESPN Game Plan
CRIS Opener:
Texas A&M -18.5 O/U 70
CRIS Current: Texas A&M -17 O/U 68.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Texas A&M -14
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Texas A&M

This game features two teams that come in off of surprising results last weekend that also saw both of them suffer injuries to their starting quarterbacks. Vanderbilt pulled an upset at home against Georgia, 31-27, while Texas A&M was on the other end of an upset, losing 45-41 to Auburn in College Station.

Vandy quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels left the Georgia game with a left leg injury and was replaced by Patton Robinette in the third quarter of the win. Robinette went 9-of-15 for 41 yards and ran for a touchdown and has been named the starter this week.

Johnny Manziel also got hurt against Auburn, missing just one series before Read more

Tags: College Football Vanderbilt Commodores Texas A&M Aggies SEC Brent Crow

NFL Gambling Preview: Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos

10.24.2013     12:24 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Washington at Denver
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Denver -12 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Denver -11.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -12
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

As the Broncos continue to show the betting public that you can mechanically play over in every one of their games, oddsmakers don’t seem to be posting a price tag high enough to deter that. This week, the Washington-Denver total was opened too low according to the early money and it’s been pushed from 55 all the way to the key number of 58 and in some shops, beyond. It’s important to note that on all occasions this season, Denver has had an opponent with at least one attribute which helped greatly in producing final scores totaling 58 or higher in six of seven contests. This week is no different as Washington rolls into Sports Authority Field at Mile High with a sieve of a defense (389.0 ypg, 30.7 ppg) and an offense Read more

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Denver Broncos Rob Veno


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