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MLB Handicapping: Pitchers who lose velocity in summer often don't get it back

07.27.2012     06:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article from FanGraphs about starting pitchers who see a drop in velocity during the summer months.

What we find is that losing velocity in June or July increases a starter’s odds of finishing the year with an overall velocity loss the most (11.9 and 13.7 respectively for June and July). Losing velocity in April isn’t insignificant, but relative to other months it is less worrisome.

To bottom-line the findings: by June, we should have a pretty good idea of how hard a pitcher is going to throw for the rest of the season. If a pitcher is down at least 1 mph in June relatively to the previous June we shouldn’t expect them to magically recover their velocity in the second half of the season. Part of this, of course, is timing–you don’t have as many pitches left in the season to recover.

Tags: MLB

MLB Gambling News: Mets send rookie Harvey to the hill vs. D-Backs

07.26.2012     07:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
NY Mets (Harvey) at Arizona (Miley) -175 O/U 9

New York will send highly touted prospect Matt Harvey to the hill tonight in Arizona. Harvey was a third round pick out of North Carolina in 2007. The 6-4 righty put up good numbers in the minors with 268 strikeouts in 245 innings and a 3.25 FIP.

Tags: MLB New York Mets Arizona Diamonbacks

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros

07.25.2012     10:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Cincinnati (Bailey) at Houston (Norris)
Recommendation: Cincinanti -1.5 R/L +110

To say that the Astros are slumping is something of an understatement.  They’re not slumping, they’ve completely collapsed; a woeful 2-21 in their last 23 ballgames.  16 of those losses have come by two runs or more, a run line bettor’s paradise to fade this sorry squad. 

Houston is jettisoning veterans prior to the trading deadline, dumping Wandy Rodriguez, Bret Myers and Carlos Lee over the past few weeks.  GM Jeff Luhnow made it very clear that their focus is on restocking the farm system, not winning games over the back half of the season.  "We're accumulating quite a lot of talent in our system, and that's everywhere from rookie ball to Triple-A." 

The Astros are 0-8 in starter Bud Norris’ last eight trips to the hill, and he’s only notched two quality starts during that entire span.  Norris has issued eleven Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros Teddy Covers

Sports Betting Podcast 7-25-2012 with Handicappers Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa

07.25.2012     10:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa. ER broke down the MLB card from a betting perspective while Alf discussed the RBC Canadian Open and the Olympics.

Today's segments
Erin Rynning - MLB Every Game on the Board

Alf Musketa - RBC Canadian Open and Olympics

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB PGA Erin Rynning Alf Musketa

MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

07.24.2012     10:04 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Kansas City (Smith) at LA Angels (Richards) -175 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

The betting markets aren’t used to seeing totals of 9 hung at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, a notoriously pitcher friendly ballpark.  LA’s highest posted total through their first 44 home games was 8.5.  We saw the first 9 of the season in Saturday’s matinee against Texas, with the struggling Ervin Santana on the hill for LA matching up against the inconsistent Yu Darvish.  Bettors cashed that Over with relative ease after eight runs were scored in the first three innings.

Tonight, we’re seeing the second 9 of the season in LA, and the betting markets are pounding the Under in morning trading.  I don’t agree with that move.  The Angels lineup is on fire right now, finally living up to the expectations from their massive payroll. They’ve scored 53 runs in their last nine games, just shy of six runs per contest, going 6-2-1 to the Over in the Read more

Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

07.24.2012     09:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Maholm) +165 at Pittsburgh (McDonald) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Chicago

FanGraphs pointed out some excellent statistics on the likelihood of regression for Pittsburgh's James McDonald. Here are some of the highlights:

He has posted a walk rate of 5.3 during the month after two straight months at 2.1, while his strikeout rate has sat below 7.0 since the beginning of June.

There is absolutely no reason to believe he can possibly sustain a .257 BABIP, especially given his 22% line drive rate and miniscule pop-up rate.

Since the All-Star break, we've seen McDonald start to regress with two sub-par starts that resulted in 9.2 IP, 17 hits, 10 ER, 3 HRs, 9 BBs, 4 Ks. Bottom line is even when McDonald was dialed in, trusting him as a -175 favorite was difficult. With him primed for more regression the decision to fade him Read more

Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange

Football is almost here, but still plenty of opportunity for MLB profits

07.24.2012     07:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NFL training camps open up around the country this coming weekend. The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind. Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now. We’ve got a rapidly maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore. Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up. Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks.

The first preseason Week 1 pointspreads are now on the radar screen, as are the Week 1 college football pointspreads – the games are already loaded into the system on my SportsOptions Live Odds screen. College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences. Best of all, just about every day from here through the ‘real’ start of football season at the end of August, we’ll see fresh numbers on a daily basis at one sportsbook or another.

So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football? After all, we’re only ten days out from the All Star break – there’s more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play. There isn’t a team in Read more

Tags: MLB NFL College Football Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Big lines moves in the National League

07.23.2012     06:48 AM     Printer Friendly
You don't always see a lot of significant line moves in MLB this deep into the season but today's card – in particular the National League – has seen a lot of betting action.

MLB Line Moves 7/23/2012 - Pinnacle
Pinny Opener
Pinny Current
Miami -145
Miami -118
NY Mets
Washington -118
Washington -130
Cincinnati -145
Cincinnati -159
LA Dodgers
St. Louis
St. Louis -140
St. Louis -125
Arizona -185
Arizona -203

Tags: MLB

MLB Betting Free Pick: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

07.22.2012     06:48 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Minnesota (Deduno) at Kansas City (Guthrie) -140 O/U 10.5
Recommendation: Kansas City

Have to believe newly acquired Royals righty Jeremy Guthrie when he said he is excited to join the Kansas City starting rotation. He also seemed to be just as glad to be out of Colorado where he said that his pitches just came out differently, with less sharpness and movement. That contrasts to what he said about Kauffman Stadium which he called a good pitchers ballpark that can hold fly balls. This seems to be a solid situational spot today as Guthrie takes the hill with seemingly something to prove in his first start as a Royal. His confidence in his stuff remains intact and that stuff has been good enough to go 4-1 lifetime with a 2.61 ERA in six starts against Minnesota. Expect a fully focused effort out of Guthrie in this contest. His mound opponent Samuel Deduno has been shaky in his pair of starts for the Twins thus far. Through his first 9.2 innings, Deduno has walked eight, allowed three Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals Rob Veno

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays

07.21.2012     08:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Seattle (Vargas) at Tampa Bay (Cobb)
Recommendation: Seattle Team Total Over 3ov-119 @ Pinnacle

Since throwing seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Miami back in mid-June Alex Cobb has been so-so with a 6.75 ERA in four starts. I'll cut him some slack knowing that he was thrown to the wolves against KC because the bullpen was overworked and two of the other starts were against lefty-heavy Cleveland. He's better than his 4.92 ERA but not in great form and facing an capable offense tonight in Seattle. Also keep in mind that the Rays used all their big relief arms last night in a 14-inning win. The Mariners have scored 3 runs or more in 22 of 33 road games against right-handed starters. But the ratio is much higher of late with 14 of their last 17 notching 3 or more (12 of those hit four or more). Note that hitter friendly ump Tim McClelland is behind the plate. Not against playing the game over but Vargas has actually been throwing well and could be a good matchup against Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Andrew Lange


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