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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success Week 13
12.07.2011 12:15 PM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing pointspread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
The top Week 13 offensive performances in victory included the Packers (449 yards, 5.8 yards per play), Ravens (448, 5.7), Chargers (443, 8.0), Saints (438, 7.2), 49ers (389, 6.2), Broncos (386, 6.9) and Panthers (385, 6.1). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the Rams (157, 3.2), Bears (181, 3.3), Bengals (232, 4.2) and Browns 233, 4.2).
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 7-0 SU/ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent are covering the point spread 79% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 38-5
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College Basketball Free Pick: Portland Pilots at Boise State Broncos
12.07.2011 10:06 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Portland
at
Boise State
Recommendation: Portland +8.5 1st half
At some point, the betting markets are going to outpace Boise State. Tonight's game against Portland opened -12 but was bet up to a rich -15. The Broncos have dominated weaker foes at home like Utah, Northridge, and Idaho State but I think they'll get a stiffer test tonight against the Pilots. Portland defeated Boise 88-79 last year and though the Pilots lost a lot from that team, they should be familiar with what Boise is going to try to accomplish. Portland has played a very tough schedule including last time out at Saint Louis. They got buried early but didn't quit in the second half and will have a much easier time making baskets tonight. Boise has the ability to wear down teams with its press and up-tempo offense and I think we'll see Portland try to come out and force the Broncos to defend. With the inflated price, I'll call for the underdog to stick around early as we make a play on the
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College Basketball Gambling: Utah suspends only quality player
12.06.2011 01:20 PM
Printer Friendly
If you've followed the Utah Utes this year, you are already well aware that this is a very bad basketball team. They have yet to record a win over a DI opponent and five of their six losses came by double-digits. Now comes news that leading scorer Josh Watkins (17.7 ppg) has been
suspended indefinitely
. Watkins accounts for nearly 30% of the Utes' scoring and nearly 50% of their assists.
“I was put in a predicament that I really didn’t have any other choice,” Krystkowiak said Monday night on his weekly radio show.
“Hopefully Josh takes care of his business and picks up some of the slack that’s been dropped,” Krystkowiak said, “and we’ll evaluate whether he’s going to work his way back and join us.”
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Utah Utes
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College Basketball Free Play: Tulane Green Wave at Wofford Terriers
12.06.2011 07:30 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tulane
at
Wofford
+3 O/U 122.5
Recommendation: Wofford
It is early and there aren't a lot of situational plays, but here is one's that I think we can take advantage of. Tulane is a program on the rise and seemed to have taken the first step in becoming respectable – winning at home against a marquee opponent. Georgia Tech may not seem marquee, but compared to the rest of Tulane's non-conference schedule, it bordered on monumetal. Remember, the Green Wave played one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country last year (started 12-3) but finished 1-14 when the competition stiffened. This year, a similar concept with some truly horrific opponents (five of which 328th or worse according to Ken Pom). So because Tulane played an easy schedule BUT proved itself with a home win over Georgia Tech, they are now laying points (and getting bet) for a short turnaround road game against a comparable foe. Keep in mind that in their lone road test earlier this
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Tulane Green Wave
Wofford Terriers
Andrew Lange
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Arkansas State's Freeze takes Ole Miss gig
12.05.2011 11:36 AM
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Arkansas State
vs.
Northern Illinois
Arkansas State head coach Hugh Freeze was
named head coach of Ole Miss
earlier today. Freeze was ASU's offensive coordinator in 2010 and then took over for head coach Steve Roberts and led the Red Wolves to a 10-2 mark this year. It hasn't been decided if Freeze will coach ASU in the upcoming GoDaddy.com Bowl against Northern Illinois. Last year there were two examples of lower-tier coaches accepting better gigs before the postseason. In both instances, an interim coach was named. After losing in the MAC Championship, Jerry Kill left Northern Illinois two days later for Minnesota but the Huskies rolled over Fresno State, 40-17, in the Humanitarian Bowl. Miami-Ohio's Mike Haywood left for Pittsburgh following the win over NIU yet the RedHawks went on to beat Middle Tennessee in the
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Arkansas State Red Wolves
Northern Illinois Huskies
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College Basketball Handicapping: Middle Tennessee State passes eye test
12.05.2011 07:46 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
I took my son to see Middle Tennessee State play Akron on Sunday – a close up encounter with a Blue Raiders squad that came in 7-1 SU, 7-0 ATS. From the opening tip, it was clear that MTSU was the better of the two teams (77-53 win). And I'm taking into account that from Akron's perspective, the situation didn’t set up for a gutsy performance – on the road, 1 pm local start, empty arena. The Zips could beat the Blue Raiders at home, but at a neutral site, MTSU is at least 5-6 points better – maybe more.
The first thing that stood out was MTSU's athleticism and length. We use terms like that all of the time to describe teams but in this case it is very real. The guards are quick and the post players run the floor well and make it difficult for opposing teams to get easy looks in the paint. The difference between mid-major and power conference teams often comes down to smarts. MTSU isn't that far removed personnel wise than a majority of the SEC, yet they are very well coached and play team basketball. Five players scored between nine and 19 points. On missed shots, they got out and ran, while on makes, they were patient on offense and didn't settle
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Andrew Lange
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New Jersey keeps up fight for legalized sports betting
12.02.2011 01:25 PM
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New Jersey Senator Raymond Lesniak knows that getting the government to OK
sports betting
in the Garden State is still a long shot at this point, but that hasn't stopped him from fighting the good fight.
"The likelihood of some gambler trying to fix games is much greater when you're dealing with unregulated betting, which is what we have in the other 46 states," said New Jersey State Sen. Jim Whelan, chair of the state's Wagering committee.
"Sports betting is here to stay. It's a fait accompli."
"On Super Bowl week or Final Four week, you can't get a room in Vegas, and Atlantic City is a ghost town," he said.[:END-QUOTE
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NFL Betting Notes: Peterson out, Harvin questionable for Vikings
12.02.2011 01:17 PM
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Denver
at
Minnesota
-1.5 O/U 37.5
According to
reports
, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson (ankle) will miss Sunday's game against Denver. Wide receiver Percy Harvin also missed practice today due to illness. Harvin is listed as questionable. If he's unable to go, that leaves a receiving corps with 13 total catches this season.
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Denver Broncos
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NFL Handicapping: Giants vow defensive turnaround against Packers
12.02.2011 07:07 AM
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Green Bay
-6.5 at
New York Giants
O/U 52
New York defensive coordinator Perry Fewell pretty much said his stop unit
quit
in Monday's 49-24 loss to New Orleans. The Saints put up a college-like 577 yards on 8.4 yards per play. Fewell though vows Sunday's game against the Packers will be different.
"It was so disappointing from my perspective that as I watched it on Monday and watched it the next day, it was one of those games that you want to bury," Fewell said Thursday after practice. "The energy level, what we did, it baffled me, OK. It baffled me. You're supposed to have answers, but sometimes you can't explain a game like that."
"That was disheartening, no doubt," Fewell said. "Me being the coach and the leader of the defense, that was disheartening, It was disappointing more so than disheartening because we don't coach that.
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New York Giants
Green Bay Packers
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Alledged beard for Billy Walters indicted on sports betting probe
12.01.2011 06:15 AM
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You'll get a kick out of this one. Robert Walker, who happens to be a sports bettor and may or may not be connected to Billy Walters, was indicted by a
federal grand jury
for what they are calling "...causing a domestic financial institution to fail to file an accurate currency transaction report." The Feds say Walker was making bets for Walters' Acme company. Walker says no way. The Feds/IRS then tried to get Walker to rat on Walters to no avail.
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Las Vegas
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