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NCAAF Gambling: Florida Atlantic plays first home game of season in new stadium
10.14.2011 08:00 AM
Printer Friendly
Western Kentucky
at
Florida Atlantic
-2.5 O/U 43.5
Florida Atlantic's run of road games ends this week as they play host to Western Kentucky. And not only is it the Owls’ first home game but it will mark the first at the team's
new $70 million stadium
. The new facility was the final task for 77-year-old head coach Howard Schnellenberger who is slated to retire following the 2011 season. Perhaps a good spot for a big effort from the Owls as Western Kentucky comes in off a rare overtime victory over Middle Tennessee State.
"My dream fell on deaf ears," he says, a smile lifting his mustache. "Hallelujah, amen, glory be — the university dispelled my first thoughts and came up with their
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Tags:
College Football
Florida Atlantic Owls
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sun Belt
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College Football Gambling Preview: Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers
10.13.2011 12:46 PM
Otto Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports
Florida
at
Auburn
(4 pm PT, ESPN)
CRIS Opener:
Florida -1.5 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current:
Florida -2 O/U 49.5
Rob Veno Power Rating:
Auburn pk
Marty Otto’s Betting Take:
The fact we’ve seen these two offenses scuffle the past two games shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The Gators lost their starting quarterback and were up against two of the most dominant defenses in all of college football. The Tigers were dealing with injuries to key skill position talent while on the road against two good defenses as well. But perhaps those dreadful showings serve as a positive for those looking to play the over this weekend.
What these two offenses lack in passing production right now they can potentially make up for with explosive running attacks on Saturday. Granted both defenses will likely scheme to stop the run first and foremost but will
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Tags:
College Football
Florida Gators
Auburn Tigers
SEC
Marty Otto
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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success
10.13.2011 11:37 AM
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Submitted by
We went 4-0 on our NFL side plays in Week 5, and my experience and unprecedented past success is in large part based on my ability to project which teams will have more success controlling the ball, line of scrimmage and running the football. Invariably, I’m always asked (or told) that the NFL game has evolved into a greater passing game; and after some of the strong offensive showings and passing attacks in the early season, who could argue? After all, there have been ten individual 400-yard passing performances in 2011; tied for the 4th most of any SEASON in NFL history (13 in 1986 and 2004, and 11 in 2010). Projecting good and bad quarterback play is also part of my evaluation and handicap of a match-up. However, it has been and will continue to be this professional handicapper’s opinion that rushing yards are more meaningful stats overall than passing yards (when projecting ATS results), which can be accumulated against soft coverage or prevent defenses when a team is behind by margin or playing catch-up.
I also keep track of yards-per-play (ypp) and yards-per-point stats to help me determine a team’s offensive efficiency and how they will fair
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NCAAF Handicapper Free Play: East Carolina Pirates at Memphis Tigers
10.13.2011 11:27 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
East Carolina
-14 at
Memphis
O/U 56
Recommendation: East Carolina
The Pirates and head coach Ruffin McNeill were flat-out embarrassed last week in a 56-3 loss at Houston. There are really no excuses for the loss however they're neither the first nor the last team to hear sirens in their sleep after a trip to Robertson Stadium. As I see it, the loss should serve as strong motivation for this week's contest and reports have the Pirates focused at practice. The seniors on this team have been a part of three straight bowl appearances and are unlikely to quit on the season. In fact, they still feel like they can be a strong contender to reach the C-USA championship game. East Carolina has played a real tough schedule as well with North Carolina, Virginia Tech and South Carolina all having superior talent, and undefeated Houston currently in the top 25. Obviously this match-up against Memphis will serve as an opportunity to get their hurry-up offense going
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East Carolina Pirates
Memphis Tigers
C-USA
Erin Rynning
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NCAAF Odds Preview: Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders
10.13.2011 08:42 AM
Otto Sports
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Kansas State
at
Texas Tech
(4 pm PT, FSN)
CRIS Opener:
Texas Tech -3.5 O/U 60.5
CRIS Current:
Texas Tech -3.5 O/U 59.5
Rob Veno Power Rating:
Texas Tech -5.5
Marty Otto’s Betting Take:
How about those Kansas State Wildcats! Three straight wins, all as underdogs, have catapulted this unbeaten team into the top 25 polls.
There’s nothing flashy about this offense as quarterback Collin Klein has only thrown for 593 yards and is averaging less than 4.5 yards per pass according to our ACCU-Stats. But what they lack in flair through the air they make up for on the ground. The rushing attack has been solid in averaging over 200 yards per game and their 5.34 yards per rush (ACCU-Stat) is a strong number. More of a quarterback based rushing scheme (Klein leads the team in attempts) now that freight train Daniel Thomas has departed,
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Texas Tech Red Raiders
Kansas State Wildcats
Big XII
Marty Otto
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Handicapping College Football favorites and rushing success
10.13.2011 07:45 AM
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Last week was a near bloodbath for the sportsbooks, as college football favorites hit for big paydays with betting favorites going 32-20 ATS. The winning continued Sunday for the public and parlay bettors as the late day NFL games saw the favorite and over go 4-0. The top 10 ranked college football teams, which often garner the most betting interest from the betting public, went 9-0 ATS.
As noted in my college football blog
last week
, there can be success and profits when isolating teams that have a significant rushing advantage; in this case over a 2-to-1 total yard advantage over their opponent. Teams that “doubled up” their opponent last week went 21-3 ATS! For the season, those double rushers are 109-34, 76% ATS. Note that last season with a sample size of nearly 300 games and results, teams that outrushed their opponent by a 2-to-1 margin covered the pointspread 74% of the time (using games between the 120 CFB lined teams).
This week take a look at the following teams (defensive
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Handicapper Brent Crow's SEC Gambling Previews
10.13.2011 07:26 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
South Carolina
-3 at
Mississippi State
New quarterbacks are the theme in Starkville this week. Connor Shaw took over for Stephen Garcia last week and led the Gamecocks to their best output of the season, a 54-3 win over Kentucky. Garcia was booted from the team so there is no controversy or doubt who the starter is in South Carolina. Not so for Mississippi State however. Tyler Russell came off the bench for an ineffective Chris Relf last week in Birmingham to lead the Bulldogs to a 21-3 win over UAB. Russell was 11-of-13 for 166 yards and three touchdowns in the second half after Relf failed to put any points on the board in the first half. Dan Mullen has been coy about who will start this week for the Bulldogs, but I would think Russell gets the nod to try to revive a disappointing season thus far. South Carolina should handle either quarterback, however, as the shaky Mississippi State offensive line is the real problem. Shaw will also find it tougher
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Brent Crow
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NFL Handicapping: Fairway Jay Week 5 Betting Recap
10.12.2011 08:26 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and guidelines to better assist him in providing pointspread winners. Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo Blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 5 NFL favorites went 8-5 straight-up and 7-6 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 36-39-2 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Four division games in Week 5 and division underdogs went 1-3 ATS. Home underdogs went 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. For the season, home underdogs are 9-16 SU and 13-11-1 ATS. Scoring continued to soar with a 9-4 O/U week. For the season, totals are now 47-28-2 O/U. Offensive production is at an all-time high with 3,566 points scored in 2011; the most through Week 5 in NFL history. That is an
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College Football ATS Notes: Kansas State thrives in role of underdog
10.12.2011 07:59 AM
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Kansas State
at
Texas Tech
-3 O/U 59.5
Kansas State is still using the
pointspread as motivation
. Under Bill Snyder, the Wildcats are 10-5 ATS as an underdog including three straight outright victories.
“It’s the same feeling every game,” wide receiver Chris Harper said. “We just do what we do, and we’ll be fine. The guys who draw up the lines, they don’t play the game. They don’t know anything about it. So I don’t pay any attention to that.”
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Kansas State Wildcats
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big XII
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Air Force defensive line main source of team woes
10.12.2011 06:46 AM
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San Diego State
at
Air Force
-6 O/U 58.5
We mentioned last week that the
loss of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter
had an impact on the decline of the unit. Adding to that has been the
large number of key injuries
. The Falcons typically use a three-man front and all three Week 1 starters are currently out. That is without question the main reason the team ranks dead last nationally in rush defense (235.2 ypg). Head coach Troy Calhoun has been forced to play some freshmen; a rarity as basic training and the complexity of schemes is often too overwhelming. San Diego State ran for 209 yards (7.2 ypc) in last year's 27-25 win. Last week, Notre Dame scored 59 points and averaged 9.2 ypc.
“We
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Air Force Falcons
San Diego State Aztecs
Mountain West
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