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May

6

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MLB Handicapping: American League Road Only Team Stats

08.08.2013     05:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s been awhile since we looked at road-only stats in the majors. Went through the splits pages at baseball-reference and grabbed some offensive and pitching numbers for all 30 teams.

Don’t want to suggest that “road only” numbers are the perfect way to evaluate teams. Every method has some pollution in it. Generally speaking, these do paint a pretty accurate portrait of the true big picture strengths and weaknesses of each team. They take home ballparks out of the mix…and therefore the illusions that are typically created when teams have to play half their games in a home park that either favors hitting or pitching.

Best Road Offenses (ordered by on-base plus slugging total)

Baltimore 767: .320 on-base, .447 slugging

Boston 757: .342 on-base, .415 slugging

Detroit 745: .327 on base, .418 slugging

Cleveland 738: .330 on base, .408 slugging

Tampa Bay 738: .323 on-base, .415 Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Illinois hopes new OC can spark offensive turnaround

08.07.2013     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A common theme here in the blog this summer has been college football teams with crappy offenses that bring in new offensive coordinators. In the case of Illinois, calling last year's offense "crappy" is generous. We're talking about a team that averaged 11.8 ppg in conference play. When something like that occurs the next logical move is to bring in an up-and-coming OC who can quickly turn things around. But the Illini went a different route and hired former Western Michigan head coach Bill Cubit who this fall will turn 60 years old. Cubit's WMU teams were typically slightly above average by MAC standards but never prolific when it came to putting points on the board. According to Cubit, the main goal this season is to play faster (Illinois ranked 87th in plays per game last year, Western Michigan ranked 34th). Dating back to the Ron Zook era, U of I’s problem has not been talent but rather developing it. Nowhere is that more apparent than quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase who saw his QB ratings drop from 133.38 to Read more



Tags: College Football Illinois Fighting Illini Big Ten




MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

08.06.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta (Teheran ) +105 at Washington (Gonzalez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Atlanta


The Braves are the hottest team in baseball right now, winners of eleven straight.  They’ve taken complete control of the NL East, currently sporting a 13.5 game lead against second place Washington after last night’s victory. 

This Freddie Freeman quote tells us that the Braves are still fully focused on the task at hand: “You want to step on their necks, especially when we've got this big of a lead. I think we set the tone.”

Washington is just 3-8 against the Braves this year; outscored 21-7 while losing all four previous home matchups against Atlanta.  And it’s clear that the sub-.500 Nationals are pressing right now, as evidenced by this Tyler Clippard quote: “We've got to turn this thing around. Two months left, and we're (13 1/2) games back. We've got to get moving.”  It’s surely worth noting that Clippard allowed Read more



Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Preseason Power Ratings

08.06.2013     06:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As most of you in the markets know, CRIS posted Week One lines for college football this past weekend. Those lines have had time to move…as sharp action has hit the offshore board. That’s helped solidify how “the market” sees the 2013 college football season in the days leading up to everyone’s openers.

I’ve used those “improved” lines (oddsmakers openers plus sharp influence) to update our first crack at estimated Power Ratings. First, I’ll run through the top 10 or so, which will give you a chance to compare them to preseason polls. Then, I’ll go through each board conference. Again, these aren’t how I would personally rate the teams. This is my guess at how “the market” as a composite has the teams rated on a standard Power Ratings scale. You regulars know that I typically stick “championship caliber” at 85 and work down from that. This year’s Alabama squad is seen as a bit better than Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason

08.05.2013     07:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a How to Beat the NFL Preseason article just about every year.  But this is no cut-and-paste from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically. 

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year.  Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.  

Part of the change is the pointspread itself.  What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5.  As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.

At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade.  Coach’s gameplans change over time, as Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Indiana sees up-tempo as key vs. Big Ten

08.02.2013     01:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Not every team in the Big Ten likes to play at a pedestrian pace and grind out games. Indiana and Penn State ranked in the top 25 nationally in terms of plays per game last season. In Kevin Wilson's second season, the Hoosiers ranked second in the Big Ten in yards per game (442.0). According to Wilson, playing up-tempo is the best way to level the playing field against the rest of the conference.


"We understand that when we substitute, the referee gives the other team a chance to match that substitution," he said. "We also understand that when we don't substitute, we can go fast. I believe in playing fast. I believe in different tempos."

"Fans want to see points," Wilson said. "With HD TV, every league and the professionals, everyone’s worried about fan experience. Great defense, you want it, I don’t think every game’s gotta be a 42-40 shootout, but I don't think anybody wants a 1-0 shutout. I don’t think we're playing 7-3 football." 






Tags: College Football Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Texas Rangers at Oakland A's

08.02.2013     11:31 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Ogando) at Oakland (Milone) -131 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Oakland


The Rangers rotation has been a mess for a good portion of the season, with Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Nicholas Tepesch and tonight’s starter, Alexi Ogando, all spending extended stints on the DL.  In the midst of a pennant race, the Rangers are desperate to guy these guys back in the rotation. 

Ogando has made two starts since his seven week stint on the DL ended.  Neither start was good – high pitch counts, mediocre velocity, and an inability to notch strikeouts – as Texas went 0-2 in those outings. I’m not convinced he’s fully healthy.

The A’s have hit Ogando fairly well even when he was at his best, scoring 14 runs in 25 career innings against him.  And Oakland’s bats are in good form right now, pounding out six runs or more three times while winning four of their last six on this homestand.  With a 34-18 record at Read more



Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Oakland A's Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling News: Unspoken About Interleague Action

08.02.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You’re not hearing much this year about the big advantage the American League is once again enjoying against the National League. A few handicapping places have mentioned it. The networks tend to shy away from that stuff on purpose because it doesn’t promote the sport. You think the MLB Network wants you considering the NL as Quadruple A? ESPN shows a lot of games in prime time from that league, and “Boy, the NL is getting crushed again” isn’t much of a commercial.

With the Texas rout of Arizona tonight in a make-up game, the season series is now:

American League 117 wins

National League 100 wins

That’s 54% for the American League…which, at least for now…extends a multi-year advantage that has generally hopped around that mark. What hasn’t been reported at all to my knowledge is the following...

Interleague Games Played So Far

AL East 61

AL Central Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: American Athletic Conference Stat Day

08.01.2013     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Our final look at a mid-major conference features the new American Athletic Conference. It’s a 10-team league that currently features six teams from last year’s Big East, and four teams from last year’s Conference USA. You can see an emphasis on markets in the CUSA invitees. SMU and Houston bring Dallas and Houston into the fold. Central Florida is based in Orlando...in the heart of a sports-loving state and near the massive amusement park complex run by the company that owns ESPN. Memphis isn’t a megaplex, but it’s in a great football state while also being in an NBA city. The conference is hoping to grow into a big deal given that strategy.

It’s not really a big deal yet. Though, Louisville sure did the conference proud last year in the Sugar Bowl when they stunned Florida. The most surprising thing to me about the numbers you’ll be reading today is that Louisville didn’t look all that dominant by Big East standards. They played a lot of close games in a mediocre (or worse) conference before catching arrogant Florida napping and Read more



Tags: College Football AAC Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Minnesota's Nelson projected to start at quarterback

07.31.2013     08:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It looks like sophomore Philip Nelson will be the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Golden Gophers this season. Last year, they pulled Nelson's redshirt midseason and he played the final seven games of the season (873 yards, 48.7%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs). With Max Shortell transferring to Jacksonville State, Nelson is the only QB on the roster who has any game experience. The Golden Gophers return 10 starters on offense and are 14.5-point home favorites against UNLV in Week 1. UM's early season schedule sets up well with home games against the Rebels, Western Illinois, San Jose State and Iowa and a road trip to New Mexico State.


"I want to be healthy, and do whatever we can to win," Nelson said, adding: "I think we're going to stop making the quarterback run 15-plus times a game. But at the same time, if that's what it may be to win, that's what you've got to do."

"You've got to be able to be accurate and make the right decisions and just be able to utilize the players around me and let

Read more



Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Big Ten



77

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 06, 2016 11:46 AM.