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December

8

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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
 
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Records since the All-Star Break

08.26.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I noticed a lot of people are doing web searches for this. The mainstream places should have a page updated daily! Here are Major League Baseball records only counting games played from the All-Star Break through Sunday August 25.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Best in the AL

Detroit 25-11

Texas 21-14

Kansas City 22-15

Tampa Bay 19-13

Cleveland 20-15

Let’s stop there…with the teams who have been playing the best ball in the best league. Detroit hit an extra gear at the Break, and continues to play at a very high level. They’ve clearly been the best team in the AL since then. You have to debate the relative strength of the two leagues to decide if they’re better than the Dodgers team that’s been tearing up the NL. Texas and Tampa Bay have positioned themselves very well to at least make the playoffs with solid runs. What’s amazing about Kansas City is that Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




Sports Betting Podcast 8-23-2013 with Handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning

08.23.2013     09:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning. Brent gave his thoughts on Saturday and Sunday's NFL Preseason while ER talked MLB.

Today's segments
Full Show

Brent Crow - NFL Preseason Saturday and Sunday

Erin Rynning - MLB (Free Play+Special Offer)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: NFL MLB Brent Crow Erin Rynning




College Football Gambling: UL-Lafayette brings in new defensive coordinator

08.23.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Offense wasn't an issue for UL-Lafayette last season as the Ragin' Cajuns rolled up a Sun Belt-leading 486.3 ypg of offense in conference play. The problem was defense as they allowed a Sun Belt-worst 457.6 ypg. This past offseason, third-year head coach Mark Hudspeth brought in former NFL linebacker James Willis to serve as defensive coordinator. Willis last served as DC at Texas Tech in 2010. The Red Raiders finished 114th in total defense that year (456.3 ypg).


“Our strength right now is gonna have to be in the middle. We rely on everything we do up front,” said Willis, who calls the Cajun defense inexperienced “across the board.”

“We build our defense from inside out, and up front we do have some big, very physical, athletic guys. Right now that is the focal point of our defense. That’s what we will build everything around … because that, to me, is our foundation.”

“I think Coach Willis’ best attribute is that he is a teacher. At linebacker, I can pretty much tell what is happening

Read more



Tags: College Football UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Sun Belt




College Football Handicapping: The impact returning starters has on the betting markets

08.22.2013     06:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Yesterday I talked about Phil Steele's impact on the betting markets. Today I'll discuss another factor that influences early season games and that's returning starters. Who is coming back is probably to first thing bettors look at when evaluating a team during the summer. And based on my experience, teams with "a lot" of returning starters get a lot more love in the betting markets than those with only "a few” returning starters. Before I begin note that there are many different definitions of “returning starters” but for the sake of argument, we'll use Phil Steele as our reference point since his publication is such a common fixture among the betting community. Keep in a mind, A LOT can happen over the course of three months and I've seen multiple examples where returning starter numbers in June were a lot different than in September.

I used the very arbitrary numbers of 17 or more and 10 or less when breaking down our returning starter "extremes." That gives us 31 Read more



Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




College Football Betting: Kentucky opts for two quarterbacks in Week 1

08.22.2013     06:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oh boy. Kentucky has decided it will play two quarterbacks in its opener against Western Kentucky. Neither Maxwell Smith nor Jalen Whitlow was able to win the gig during fall camp. And first-year head coach Mark Stoops even said that third-stringer Patrick Towels could play at some point this season if Smith and Whitlow don't pan out. Just to recap, Kentucky is obviously under a new coaching regime, one that wants to completely change its offensive philosophy and play up-tempo. They plan on doing this behind an inexperienced offensive line and a two quarterback system which historically has about a 13.5% success rate. It would be a lot different if the Wildcats played an FCS cupcake in Week 1 but instead, they face a Western Kentucky squad (in Nashville) that won last Read more



Tags: College Football Kentucky Wildcats SEC Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Sun Belt




NFL Preseason Betting: Houston to plays starters a half vs. New Orleans

08.21.2013     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New Orleans at Houston -2.5 O/U 43.5

The Houston Texans announced that they will play their starters the first half of Sunday's game against New Orleans.


“No, he’s going to play," Kubiak said of Schaub's status. "We’ll play our starters a good half of football or a number of snaps, whichever comes first. He’s had an excellent camp and I think he’s benefited from the other two pushing each other and the way they’ve played.”

“Yeah, we need to all pick it up,” Kubiak said of the upcoming game. “We need to play our most snaps this week.”






Tags: NFL Houston Texans New Orleans Saints




Canadian Football League Week 8 Betting Recap

08.21.2013     07:46 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 8 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter, team-by-team analysis of the four teams that were in action…

Montreal Alouettes (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Give the Montreal Alouettes credit for fighting their asses off against the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Alouettes stepped up and showed some pride after a miserable effort at home in a 38-13 blowout loss to Toronto the previous week. Montreal’s defense played by far its best game of the season. They were dominant by getting pressure on quarterback Darian Durant and doing an admirable job against the explosive running of Kory Sheets who for the first time this season was held below 100 yards. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo suffered a concussion late in the first half and didn’t return. That forced backup Josh Neiswander into the game and he didn’t move the football much at all in the second half against Saskatchewan’s staunch defense. Montreal only a scored one field goal and a fumble return touchdown in the second half. The offense couldn’t generate very much and that allowed the Roughriders to escape with a 24-21 win. It’s Read more



Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: A look back at 2012's sloppiest teams

08.20.2013     01:29 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’ve compiled sloppiness scores for all 32 NFL teams from the 2012 season. I’ve also done the math for all 32 defenses in terms of “forcing sloppiness" from opponents. I’ll post those in a separate report tomorrow to keep this from turning into a long novel that’s hard to digest in one reading.

If you’re new to the site, sloppiness is a quickfire stat that paints a picture of how effectively teams execute. The formula is 5 times the number of giveaways…plus the number of incomplete passes. The lower the number the better because you want to avoid sloppiness. The league average last year was right around 21 for a per-game score. Having a game in the 30’s or higher is embarrassing. Having an AVERAGE near 30 is a very strong indictment of your quarterback and coach.

Let’s start with the sloppiest teams from 2012 and work our way toward the sharpest…

Sloppiest Teams

Detroit Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Dec 08, 2016 06:25 AM.