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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
09.11.2011 05:09 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Seattle
at
San Francisco
-5.5 O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Under
As we saw quite clearly in Thursday Night’s opener between the Saints and the Packers, teams that enter the season with their offenses firmly in place are quite capable of executing at a high level. But what happens when virtually nothing is in place for either team from a season ago? We’ll find out when the 49ers and Seahawks square off; a game that has the potential to be very, very ugly for football purists and fans alike.
The new kickoff rules ensure that most drives following a score will start from the 20 yard line. And these are two offenses that are simply incapable of driving 80 yards for a touchdown. Seattle’s offensive line is a mess. Their big free agent signing, Robert Gallery, isn’t expected to suit up for the opener. It the
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Seattle Seahawks
Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Week 1 Betting Trends and Angles
09.11.2011 05:04 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
We kicked off the NFL season with an easy over the total winner when the Packers beat the Saints, 42-34, in a shootout. Now the rest of the league kicks off on Sunday and Monday, and thought you might be interested in some trends and angles for opening week NFL action. Many line moves in Week 1 (some big moves) with the betting lines being posted for over a month and bettors able to fire at the lines based on expected line moves, preseason play and injury reports.
Less than two weeks ago, the Texans were a 3-point favorite over the Colts, but with Peyton Manning’ status in question the line zoomed to Houston -8.5/9. Manning then had his second neck surgery this week. Note additional line moves on other games of interest, and know that Week 1 is often the biggest betting week of the NFL season. Expect some line adjustments in Week 2 following surprising and/or poor play by teams (and even more so in college football).
I use a combination of fundamental (matchups), statistical and situational handicapping and will
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NCAAF Betting: Rebuilding projects UNLV and Washington State meet
09.10.2011 07:54 AM
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Submitted by
UNLV
at
Washington State
-13.5- O/U 55
Washington State has won six games the past 3+ season’s following its opening week blowout win over Idaho State, 64-21. Meanwhile, UNLV was getting dismantled on the road again, losing at Wisconsin 51-17 after the Badgers pulled their starters after leading 51-3. The Rebels have topped two wins just once over the last six years.
How bad is UNLV? Well, the Rebels are on a 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS run on the road as underdog following last week’s fortunate +35 backdoor cover in Madison. Many games are hardly competitive, and UNLV has been unable the cover big spreads the past two seasons. Just 3-23 SU on the road since 2007; check out these scores in defeat...
Wisconsin…51-17
Hawaii…59-21
San Diego
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Washington State Cougars
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NFL Handicapper Podcast: Every Game on the Board 9/9/2011
09.09.2011 12:49 PM
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On Friday's Sportsmemo Radio Show,
Fairway Jay
broke down the first half of Week 1's NFL card (
Podcast link
) including a division rivalry contest between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Erin Rynning
took care of the back half of the slate (
Podcast link
) and closed it out with Sunday Night's primetime matchup between Dallas and the New York Jets.
For even more pro football betting analysis, check out our
Radio Show Archive Page
which is loaded with past segments from all of the Sportsmemo Handicappers.
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NFL
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Erin Rynning
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UL-Lafayette coach tells team underdogs win outright on a regular basis
09.09.2011 10:53 AM
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Louisiana-Lafayette
at
Kent State
-8.5 O/U 51
Lafayette first-year head coach Mark Hudspeth uses some
betting vernacular
to convey to his team that plenty of underdogs win outright on a weekly basis.
"I told these guys this: 'In college football, there are gonna be 60 Division I games on Saturday; there are gonna be 60 teams favored, there are gonna be 60 teams not favored,'" Hudspeth said of his Cajuns. "But I promise you, if you look every week, every week, exactly every week, there are a bunch of teams that are not favored that are winning football games."
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College Football
UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Sun Belt
Kent State Golden Flashes
MAC
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College Football ATS Preview: Missouri Tigers at Arizona State Sun Devils
09.08.2011 01:05 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Missouri
at
Arizona State
(Friday, 7:30 pm PT – ESPN)
CRIS Opening Line:
Arizona State -7 O/U 52
CRIS Current Line:
Arizona State -7.5 O/U 53
Rob Veno Power Rating:
Arizona State -3
Teddy Covers Power Rating:
Arizona State -6
Andrew Lange's Betting Take:
Injuries are a major concern for Missouri, with as many as five projected starters not expected to play. According to the school's
current depth chart
, the first and second strings are comprised of 21 freshmen and sophomores. Also a concern is sending first-year
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Missouri Tigers
Big XII
Arizona State Sun Devils
PAC-12
Andrew Lange
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College Football ATS Trends: Short line for FIU at Louisville matchup
09.08.2011 12:35 PM
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Florida International
at
Louisville
-3.5 O/U 48
Friday's matchup between Louisville and Florida International is intriguing in that we have a Sun Belt team lined below a touchdown on the road against a BCS Conference school. We went back over the last five years and found only eight instances (see chart below) in which Sun Belt teams were +7 or less vs. BCS teams. FIU's +3.5 surprisingly wasn't the shortest line; that honor goes to Middle Tennessee who was catching +1 against woeful Minnesota in last year's opener. As for the road, Arkansas State was +2.5 at Louisville two years ago with the Cardinals winning 21-13. Prior to this weekend's game, FIU's shortest lined game against a BCS Conference foe was last year's +12 at Maryland (Terps won 42-28).
Sun Belt lined +7 or less vs. BCS Conference Teams
Year
Team
Opponent
Line
Score
Sun Belt SU
Sun Belt ATS
2010
Middle Tennessee
vs. Minnesota
Middle Tennessee +1
17-24
Loss
Loss
2009
Arkansas State
at Louisville
Arkansas State +2.5
13-21
Loss
Loss
2011
Florida Intl
at Louisville
Florida Intl +3.5
???
???
???
2009
Middle Tennessee
vs. Mississippi State
Middle Tennessee +4.5
6-27
Loss
Loss
2009
UL-Lafayette
vs. Kansas State
UL-Lafayette +6.5
17-15
Win
Win
2010
Arkansas State
vs. Louisville
Arkansas State +6
24-34
Loss
Loss
2007
Florida Atlantic
vs. Minnesota (N)
Florida Atlantic +7
42-39
Win
Win
2008
Florida Atlantic
at Minnesota
Florida Atlantic +7
3-37
Loss
Loss
2009
Middle Tennessee
at Maryland
Middle Tennessee +7
32-31
Win
Win
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Florida International Panthers
Sun Belt
Louisville Cardinals
Big East
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NFL Handicapping: Cowboys alter game plan after Jets acquire former player
09.08.2011 08:40 AM
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Dallas
at
New York Jets
-4.5 O/U 40.5
Last Sunday, the Jets acquired former Cowboys safety Andrew Sendejo on waivers and it forced Dallas DC Rob Ryan to
adjust his game plan
for Sunday's Week 1 matchup.
“It’s funny, because Rob had a defense already put in for the Jets, a bunch of stuff in that I think he wanted to do in different areas,” Romo said Wednesday. “Then, when the Jets (acquired) Andrew Sendejo, he ended up switching a lot of that stuff up, so I thought that was pretty interesting when I was watching the defensive side of the ball here this week. I’ve never seen that before, so I think there is a little cat-and-mouse game there, for sure.”
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Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets
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NFL Betting Notes: Harbaugh says Ravens' offensive line ready for Week 1
09.07.2011 08:35 AM
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Pittsburgh
at
Baltimore
-2.5 O/U 36
Update on Baltimore's
offensive line situation
. Due to injuries and the timing of offseason signings, the starting unit didn't play much together during the preseason.
"We're going to make sure it's not a problem," coach John Harbaugh said after Monday's practice. "That's our jobs, all of us together, to make sure it's not a problem. We're playing on Sunday at 1 o'clock. We're not making any excuses. We know what they're going to do. They know what we're going to do. There'll be a few wrinkles here and there and we'll go play. I'm very confident in how we're going to play."
Tags:
NFL
Baltimore Ravens
John Harbaugh
Pittsburgh Steelers
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NFL Betting News: Peyton Manning injury holding betting markets hostage
09.05.2011 07:10 AM
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The Colts season O/U wins totals and week one lines are off the board in some shops -- again -- with some rumors floating in the ether that Peyton Manning will require additional neck surgery. This has of course been one of the biggest dramas of the offseason; would he or wouldn't he be ready come week one? How good are the Colts without their star QB?
Well, the Colts removed Manning from the PUP list on August 29th and decided he was able to participate in a limited role in practice. But last night the rumors starting flying and now the Colts have
gone into overdrive
to put the fire out.
The Indianapolis Colts currently have no plans to attempt another surgery on Peyton Manning's neck, a source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter. The team is expected to make an announcement later Monday...
According to sources, multiple neurosurgeons have been consulted throughout the course of Manning's recovery, but they do not have a consensus reason
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Indianapolis Colts
Peyton Manning
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