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MLB Handicapping: Breaking From the Gate...After the Break...

07.22.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It can be tempting to overreact to stuff that happens when Major League Baseball resumes after the All-Star Break. Fans and analysts are playing extra close attention since they spent a few days thinking about the pennant races and how various teams may care…or not care about the rest of the season. But, the tone is often set for what follows by that first weekend. We won’t overreact today…but we’ll take a quick look at how all 30 offenses performed this past weekend using our “four-max” approach.

If you’re new to the blog, that’s a methodology that:

*Only counts scoring in the first five innings

*Stops counting once a team has reached FOUR runs

We do that to reward consistent scoring rather than the occasional explosion that can come if the opposing starting pitcher just doesn’t have anything that day…nor the lousy long relievers that replaced him. This started as an effort to gain context for Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

The end of summer approaches

07.19.2013     07:28 AM     Printer Friendly
How did you spend your four day break? I'm sure plenty were devouring as much football information as possible while taking a little mental breather from the every day grind of baseball. Teddy Covers found time for a little interview in the Las Vegas Sun.

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers NFL

CFL Week Three Betting Recap

07.16.2013     10:33 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 3 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter team-by-team analysis of this week’s action…

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU and ATS):
It was a case of déjà vu for Montreal in Week 3 with the offense being dormant yet again. The offensive line remained unable to execute their protection packages and blocking schemes and it resulted in another long night for 40 year old QB Anthony Calvillo who didn’t receive enough time to step up and make plays in the pocket. Montreal scored just 7 points offensively. The other TD came on a return of a blocked punt. The defense was solid again but when the offense is as brutally inept as they are right now, there is only so much they can do. The body language is getting worse from the players and from head coach Dan Hawkins who continues to look like he may be in over his head. Montreal received even more bad news after this game with the season ending injury to veteran right guard Scott Flory. An injury to one of the few experienced players on that beleaguered O-Line is the last thing Montreal needed as they prepare to head to Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapping: It's no Sharknado...but Marlincane Threatens NL East!

07.13.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

With the start of storm season in the Atlantic, it’s fitting that the Miami Marlins are now blowing through the NL East. They lead the coveted “won-lost record since June 6” stat that we created a couple of days ago (lol) after defeating Washington Friday Night.

NL East Since June 6

Miami 18-13

Washington 18-16

NY Mets 17-16

Atlanta 16-17

Philadelphia 15-17

There’s a hurricane coming…and my god…it’s full of angry marlins!

Let’s see how that record rates in the full National League in that same time period…

Best in NL Since June 6

Pittsburgh 20-11

LA Dodgers 20-12 (pending late Friday finish vs. Colorado)

Miami 18-13

St. Louis 17-14

Third best out of 15 teams! Tough to have seen that coming from a dismal 16-44 start. And, it’s not like the team is loaded with talent at the moment. Read more

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: Tennessee Vols start over with Butch Jones

07.10.2013     12:46 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
There's a new regime at Tennessee with former Cincinnati head coach Butch Jones taking over for Derek Dooley. The Vols had plenty of problems last year but most noticeable was its horrific defense which ranked 110th nationally. Those numbers came under the watch of first-year defensive coordinator Sal Sunseri who has since moved on to Florida State. Jones brought with him John Jancek to serve as DC. Jancek spent time at Georgia and Cincinnati.

Cincinnati's Defense Under Butch Jones
Year - YPG Allowed (National Rank)
2010 - 369.4 (63rd)
2011 - 356.4 (42nd)
2012 - 388.1 (55th)

Tennessee’s Defense Under Derek Dooley
Year - YPG Allowed (National Rank)
2010 - 382.2 (69th)
2011 - 340.5 (27th)
2012 - 471.3 (110th)

Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers SEC

WSOP winner will pocket $8.3 million

07.09.2013     01:38 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Over 6,500 poker players are competing for this year's World Series of Poker Main Event. First place takes home a cool $8.3 million.

“Back then, I knew three poker players,” Moneymaker said at the ceremony. “Over the last 10 years, I’ve met thousands and thousands of wonderful people in this game. It’s really evolved into something magical, and what you see here today.”

Tags: Poker

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins

07.08.2013     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.  We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.  The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.   The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month. 

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.  Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.  You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Gambling News: Streaks abound in the National League West

07.08.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The National League West has officially become a handicapping nightmare. Arizona lost eight of nine but bounced back with five straight wins. Los Angeles has crawled back into the division race having won 12 of 15. San Diego was hovering around .500 but just wrapped up a 1-9 road trip. San Francisco has lost five straight series to fall 6.5 games back of the D-Backs. And Colorado has lost six of seven and had two more players go down with injuries as Roy Oswalt left Sunday's start with a bum hamstring and Carlos Gonzalez hurt a finger.

"We have to figure it out. We are banged up, but a lot of teams are. We have to find a way to win games, that's the bottom line," Weiss said. "We have to put together better at-bats. I don't care who's pitching. You can only give credit to the pitcher so much."

"We are in a bad situation right now. We have to play better. We don't look the same. It's been a bad time. They totally played better than us," said Gonzalez, whose finger X-Ray didn't reveal a break,

Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers

College Football Betting: 5 Things I Just Noticed About The Big Ten

07.07.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve started preparing for college football. Which means…making humongous plans for what I’m going to try to keep track of only to find out in September that my eyes were bigger than my stomach. I’m at least planning to keep track of drive points (those scored on drives of 60 yards or more) out of the gate this season. If I get a bunch of charts made up for that in July and August, it won’t be too onerous a time commitment on the fly once games start.

Today I was playing around in the Big 10. Here are 5 things I noticed.
*Michigan only ranked #78 in total offense last year. There’s a lot to like about Brady Hoke. But, they were a consensus top 10 pick a year ago in the preseason, and only managed 8-5 against a schedule that included some auto-wins. Honeymoons go quickly in the Big 10. They did put up some points late in the year against Ohio State and South Carolina, after struggling for 6 at Notre Dame, 12 vs. Michigan State, and 9 at Read more

Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence


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