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NBA Handicapping: Schedule has Houston Rockets running on fumes

01.19.2013     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You’re about to see what fatigue looks like statistically!

Last week we talked about the brutal schedule stretch that was coming up for the Houston Rockets. They had just defeated the Los Angeles Lakers. But, they were about to embark on a two-week odyssey that would see them play two different four-game-in-five-night stretches with the vast majority of action on the road.

We then suggested the team hit a wall in the fourth quarter in New Orleans the next night (when they were outscored 29-10 to blow a big lead). Then, we monitored developments through the week as the Rockets continued to lose. Tonight’s 105-95 loss at Indiana continued the story. And, I’ve come up with a way that may be the best illustration of what happens to the Rockets when they get tired (for other teams, it may show up in other categories).

First, a quick review of the gauntlet to this point…

Last Tuesday: Big Win over Lakers

Last Wednesday: Died in Read more

Tags: NBA Houston Rockets Stat Intelligence

NFL Betting News: Know your officiating crews for Sunday's title games

01.18.2013     12:29 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Worth a read as ESPN spits out some numbers on both officiating crews for Sunday's NFC and AFC championship games.

McAulay's 52 holding calls tied with Ron Winter for the most among the officials. As a result, McAulay's games average 44 points a game, 1.7 below the league average. Leavy tends to let the players play. His 13.9 penalties a game is the ninth fewest. His 22 holding penalties tied for the second fewest. But cornerbacks need to watch out. Leavy led the NFL with 20 pass interference penalties. His games tend to be higher scoring at 48.7 points, fifth highest among officials.

Tags: NFL

NBA Betting Trends: Will Phoenix Suns see boost following Gentry's departure?

01.18.2013     11:38 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Earlier today, the Phoenix Suns "mutually agreed to part ways" with head coach Alvin Gentry. The Suns are in the midst of a horrific 2-13 slide (6-8-1 ATS). Gentry's departure marks the fourth mid-season coaching change. A small sample, but worth noting that the other three saw an immediate boost in success following the switch. Let’s take a look.

Los Angeles Lakers: Mike Brown was fired on November 9 and the Lakers won five of their next six (4-2 ATS) under Bernie Bickerstaff and Mike D'Antoni.

Brooklyn Nets: Avery Johnson was fired on December 29. PJ Carlesimo took over and the Nets have responded, winning nine of 11 (6-4-1 ATS) heading into tonight's contest against Atlanta.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks parted ways with Scott Skiles and promoted Jim Boylan. Under Boylan, Milwaukee has won four of six (4-2 ATS).

Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns

NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming

01.18.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.

New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.

For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence

Sportsbooks and bettors react to San Francisco 49ers, Kaepernick

01.18.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Francisco -4 at Atlanta O/U 48.5

Last week, with minimal line shopping, you could have bet the San Francisco 49ers -3 (+100/+105) at home against Green Bay. That seemed like legalized stealing considering as of this morning only a few sportsbooks are offering the 49ers -3.5 on the road at Atlanta for Sunday’s NFC Championship.


"We all knew they were pretty good," said Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, public relations director for William Hill and its 75 Nevada sportsbooks. "Now you throw this kid in there who is energizing the process, and it just means more money on the 49ers. And rightfully so. How high can it go? I don't know."

"We act much quicker on these things than we once did," Vaccaro said. "We have the whole world betting these games, so you have to make them

Read more

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons

NFL Handicapping: Why The Atlanta Falcons are +4

01.17.2013     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There’s a growing chorus in the handicapping/betting world that the line has over-adjusted in Sunday’s San Francisco/Atlanta matchup for the NFC Championship…with little apparent justification for the current number of San Francisco -4.

Let’s review a few keys.

*Sharps aren’t betting the 49ers at -4. But, they sure loved them at a field goal or less. It’s hard to know for sure from the outside how much of the moves beyond the three can be linked to sharp sentiment or square sentiment (the public). What’s clear is that sharps weren’t thinking the line should be pick-em or -1. Sharps had the 49ers at least 6 or 6.5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps stopped betting the Niners at a number that represented 7 points better on a neutral field.

*The advanced analytic stuff I’ve seen around the web supports that passion at an affordable price. Measures are showing that San Francisco has a much better offense when you adjust for Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers Stat Intelligence

NFL Gambling Trends: Conference Championships in Domed Stadiums

01.16.2013     11:28 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

Let’s take a look at AFC and NFC Championship history since 2000 when games are played in domes. It seems like the old adage of the indoor stadium being a fast track has held true, even in a most pressurized sense of playoff football! All five contests went OVER the total. The total for Sunday's NFC Championship in Atlanta was bet up from an opener of 47 to 49.

AFC and NFC Championship Betting History in Domes
Colts vs. Jets
Saints vs. Vikings
Cardinals vs. Eagles
Colts vs. Patriots
Rams vs. Eagles
57.6 ppg
5-0 O/U

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers

NBA Handicapper Free Pick: New Orleans Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers

01.15.2013     11:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
New Orleans +3 at Philadelphia O/U 184
Recommendation: New Orleans

This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now.  Forget New Orleans' 11-26 full season record – it’s meaningless.  The Hornets got star shooting guard Eric Gordon and #1 overall draft pick Anthony Davis back in the lineup and they’ve started to win.

First the Hornets knocked off Dallas in Dallas.  Then they beat the red hot Spurs, a team playing as well as any in the league through the first two and half months of the season.  They rallied from a double-digit deficit at the end of three quarters to knock off the Rockets, and rallied from another double digit deficit to beat Minnesota.  The key in all four games was defense and rebounding – New Orleans won the rebounding battle each time and held all three opponents to 92 points or less in regulation. 

But New Orleans played poorly against the Knicks at Madison Square Read more

Tags: NBA New Orleans Hornets Philadelphia 76ers Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Update: For a second straight day, betting markets poound 49ers

01.15.2013     06:17 AM     Printer Friendly

Fresh off Sunday's move from -3 to -3.5, another wave of San Francisco 49ers money came pouring in yesterday driving the line as high as as -4.5 for Sunday's NFC Championship vs. Atlanta. If you were to poll bettors at halftime of last week's divisional games (San Francisco led 24-21 and Atlanta led 20-0) on a 49ers-Falcons line, we seriously doubt there would be many saying -4.5 road chalk. Line history courtesy of CRIS.


NFL Handicapping: 49ers bet hard off opening number for NFC Championship

01.14.2013     06:39 AM     View Original Blog

Read more

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons

NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls

01.14.2013     11:48 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Atlanta at Chicago -4.5 O/U 184
Recommendation: Under

The Bulls have dropped two straight games at the United Center, which is an extreme rarity under head coach Tom Thibodeau.  They lost to the Bucks and Suns, while allowing a combined 201 points.  It makes sense the Bulls will turn it up on the defensive end on their home court tonight.  The Bulls did beat the Knicks on Friday night at Madison Square Garden, 108-101.  Keep in mind the Knicks really pushed the pace in that game trying to get back into the contest, while falling down by double-digits.  In the fourth quarter alone there were 69 points scored.  Meanwhile, the Hawks are stumbling over themselves in January.  They’re 1-5 in their last six games and struggling on offense.  They’ve remained a soft team, while too quick to launch a jump shot and not fighting for better looks in their half-court offense.  The task will continue to be tough tonight as the Bulls are actually Read more

Tags: NBA Atlanta Hawks Chicago Bulls Erin Rynning


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