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July

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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

08.06.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta (Teheran ) +105 at Washington (Gonzalez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Atlanta


The Braves are the hottest team in baseball right now, winners of eleven straight.  They’ve taken complete control of the NL East, currently sporting a 13.5 game lead against second place Washington after last night’s victory. 

This Freddie Freeman quote tells us that the Braves are still fully focused on the task at hand: “You want to step on their necks, especially when we've got this big of a lead. I think we set the tone.”

Washington is just 3-8 against the Braves this year; outscored 21-7 while losing all four previous home matchups against Atlanta.  And it’s clear that the sub-.500 Nationals are pressing right now, as evidenced by this Tyler Clippard quote: “We've got to turn this thing around. Two months left, and we're (13 1/2) games back. We've got to get moving.”  It’s surely worth noting that Clippard allowed Read more



Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Preseason Power Ratings

08.06.2013     06:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As most of you in the markets know, CRIS posted Week One lines for college football this past weekend. Those lines have had time to move…as sharp action has hit the offshore board. That’s helped solidify how “the market” sees the 2013 college football season in the days leading up to everyone’s openers.

I’ve used those “improved” lines (oddsmakers openers plus sharp influence) to update our first crack at estimated Power Ratings. First, I’ll run through the top 10 or so, which will give you a chance to compare them to preseason polls. Then, I’ll go through each board conference. Again, these aren’t how I would personally rate the teams. This is my guess at how “the market” as a composite has the teams rated on a standard Power Ratings scale. You regulars know that I typically stick “championship caliber” at 85 and work down from that. This year’s Alabama squad is seen as a bit better than Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason

08.05.2013     07:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a How to Beat the NFL Preseason article just about every year.  But this is no cut-and-paste from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically. 

I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year.  Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.  

Part of the change is the pointspread itself.  What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5.  As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.

At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade.  Coach’s gameplans change over time, as Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Indiana sees up-tempo as key vs. Big Ten

08.02.2013     01:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Not every team in the Big Ten likes to play at a pedestrian pace and grind out games. Indiana and Penn State ranked in the top 25 nationally in terms of plays per game last season. In Kevin Wilson's second season, the Hoosiers ranked second in the Big Ten in yards per game (442.0). According to Wilson, playing up-tempo is the best way to level the playing field against the rest of the conference.


"We understand that when we substitute, the referee gives the other team a chance to match that substitution," he said. "We also understand that when we don't substitute, we can go fast. I believe in playing fast. I believe in different tempos."

"Fans want to see points," Wilson said. "With HD TV, every league and the professionals, everyone’s worried about fan experience. Great defense, you want it, I don’t think every game’s gotta be a 42-40 shootout, but I don't think anybody wants a 1-0 shutout. I don’t think we're playing 7-3 football." 






Tags: College Football Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Texas Rangers at Oakland A's

08.02.2013     11:31 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Ogando) at Oakland (Milone) -131 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Oakland


The Rangers rotation has been a mess for a good portion of the season, with Neftali Feliz, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Nicholas Tepesch and tonight’s starter, Alexi Ogando, all spending extended stints on the DL.  In the midst of a pennant race, the Rangers are desperate to guy these guys back in the rotation. 

Ogando has made two starts since his seven week stint on the DL ended.  Neither start was good – high pitch counts, mediocre velocity, and an inability to notch strikeouts – as Texas went 0-2 in those outings. I’m not convinced he’s fully healthy.

The A’s have hit Ogando fairly well even when he was at his best, scoring 14 runs in 25 career innings against him.  And Oakland’s bats are in good form right now, pounding out six runs or more three times while winning four of their last six on this homestand.  With a 34-18 record at Read more



Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Oakland A's Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling News: Unspoken About Interleague Action

08.02.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You’re not hearing much this year about the big advantage the American League is once again enjoying against the National League. A few handicapping places have mentioned it. The networks tend to shy away from that stuff on purpose because it doesn’t promote the sport. You think the MLB Network wants you considering the NL as Quadruple A? ESPN shows a lot of games in prime time from that league, and “Boy, the NL is getting crushed again” isn’t much of a commercial.

With the Texas rout of Arizona tonight in a make-up game, the season series is now:

American League 117 wins

National League 100 wins

That’s 54% for the American League…which, at least for now…extends a multi-year advantage that has generally hopped around that mark. What hasn’t been reported at all to my knowledge is the following...

Interleague Games Played So Far

AL East 61

AL Central Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: American Athletic Conference Stat Day

08.01.2013     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Our final look at a mid-major conference features the new American Athletic Conference. It’s a 10-team league that currently features six teams from last year’s Big East, and four teams from last year’s Conference USA. You can see an emphasis on markets in the CUSA invitees. SMU and Houston bring Dallas and Houston into the fold. Central Florida is based in Orlando...in the heart of a sports-loving state and near the massive amusement park complex run by the company that owns ESPN. Memphis isn’t a megaplex, but it’s in a great football state while also being in an NBA city. The conference is hoping to grow into a big deal given that strategy.

It’s not really a big deal yet. Though, Louisville sure did the conference proud last year in the Sugar Bowl when they stunned Florida. The most surprising thing to me about the numbers you’ll be reading today is that Louisville didn’t look all that dominant by Big East standards. They played a lot of close games in a mediocre (or worse) conference before catching arrogant Florida napping and Read more



Tags: College Football AAC Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Minnesota's Nelson projected to start at quarterback

07.31.2013     08:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It looks like sophomore Philip Nelson will be the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Golden Gophers this season. Last year, they pulled Nelson's redshirt midseason and he played the final seven games of the season (873 yards, 48.7%, 8 TDs, 8 INTs). With Max Shortell transferring to Jacksonville State, Nelson is the only QB on the roster who has any game experience. The Golden Gophers return 10 starters on offense and are 14.5-point home favorites against UNLV in Week 1. UM's early season schedule sets up well with home games against the Rebels, Western Illinois, San Jose State and Iowa and a road trip to New Mexico State.


"I want to be healthy, and do whatever we can to win," Nelson said, adding: "I think we're going to stop making the quarterback run 15-plus times a game. But at the same time, if that's what it may be to win, that's what you've got to do."

"You've got to be able to be accurate and make the right decisions and just be able to utilize the players around me and let

Read more



Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Big Ten




College Football Handicapping: ACC Stat Day

07.31.2013     07:17 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The ACC has expanded this year, with Syracuse and Pittsburgh moving over from the Big East. So, as we run through each category, I’ve included with those two teams did in the Big East last season. It’s tempting to say that you have to make mental adjustments because the Big East was worse than the ACC. But, there was so much mediocre (or worse) play in the ACC last year…that there may not have been much of a difference.

Louisville and Syracuse obviously did the Big East proud in bowls last year. There were two heads-up meetings between the Big East and ACC. Rutgers and Virginia Tech went overtime in one of the worst bowl games ever played. Cincinnati needed a few miracles to beat Duke by 14 points (they were about to lose straight up as 9-point favorites in the final minutes)…which is a strike against the Big East. Maybe dock the stats of Syracuse and Pittsburgh a smidge.

ACC Offenses (Conference Games Only)

Florida State: 7.0 yards-per-play, 19 Read more



Tags: College Football ACC Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' NFL Season O/U Report Will Be Released Today!

07.30.2013     06:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

Click here to purchase

copy_tc_nfl_o_u_2.jpg

Below is the written analysis Teddy provided to his clients with last year's O/U Win Report. He went 4-0-1 with his recommendations.


2012 NFL Season Win Total Report: Part 1

All lines in this report are current as of 10 AM Pacific on Tuesday, July 31st.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order.  I used seven offshore sports books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker, Greek, Bovada, Grande, ABC Islands and WSEX ) as fodder for my ‘best available current line’, but there’s no reason to think that you won’t be able to find a better number elsewhere – line shoppers are routinely rewarded in the Over-Under win total marketplace. 

Each and every one of these numbers is also available at the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, but I used the offshore numbers in this report knowing that many clients don’t have access to the Vegas numbers.  It is VERY important to get the win totals posted on this report – a half game can make an enormous difference,

Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



79

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July

28


 
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