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NCAA Tournament Betting Recap: Syracuse and Wichita roll into Elite Eight

03.29.2013     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Indiana Hoosiers aren’t the first team to get tangled up in the nasty web of Syracuse’s zone defense. But, they weren’t supposed to have THIS much trouble considering the advance preparation time, and the savvy they supposedly possessed as a #1 seed and regular season champions of the powerful Big 10.

Syracuse jumped to a 29-11 lead in the first half…managed to make it interesting for awhile with very sloppy offense…but then coasted down the stretch to a 61-50 victory.

How sloppy was Syracuse? Well, Indiana committed 17 turnovers against a tricky, tall, long, athletic defense they had never seen before. Syracuse committed 15 themselves even though they were taller, longer, and more athletic!

The full rundown…

Syracuse 61, Indiana 50

2-Point Percentage: Syracuse 45%, Indiana 41%

3-Point Shooting: Syracuse 4/10, Indiana 3/15

Free Throws: Syracuse 15/20, Indiana Read more

Tags: College Basketball Syracuse Orange Wichita State Shockers Stat Intelligence

NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors

03.27.2013     12:33 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Sacramento +9 at Golden State O/U 213
Recommendation: Sacramento

Very quietly, waaaay underneath the radar, the Kings have been playing vastly improved basketball in recent weeks. They’ve split their last eight games in SU fashion, including impressive upsets by 15 points or more against the playoff-bound Clippers and Bulls.

Even on the road, where the Kings have struggled mightily this year, we’ve seen Sacto hang tough at Miami, Denver and the LA Lakers while winning outright at Orlando. Point guard Isaiah Thomas: “Our offense has gotten a lot better, we're spacing the floor and playing more unselfish. And we're really getting dialed in on defense. We've been able to turn our defense into our offense.”

The Warriors have shown no ability to separate themselves from Sacramento in any recent meeting. All three previous games between these two teams this year have been down-to-the-wire nail biters decided by four points or less. The last Read more

Tags: NBA Sacramento Kings Golden State Warriors Teddy Covers

NCAA Tournament Betting: Indiana's offense vs. Syracuse's 2-3 zone

03.27.2013     12:10 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Syracuse vs. Indiana -5.5 O/U 135.5

This East Region semifinal should prove to be a fascinating matchup. Indiana comes in with the 6th ranked FG percentage in the country at 47.6% while Syracuse counters with the 3rd ranked FG percentage defense at 37.3%. The Orange stumbled down the stretch of the Big East regular season losing four of their last five games but head coach Jim Boeheim got this team turned around and it all started with their run to the finals of the Big East Tournament. They melted down in the second half against Louisville but quickly regained their swagger with a convincing win over Montana in the first round followed by a solid win last time out against California. Syracuse held the Golden Bears to just 39.3% from the floor and 19% from the perimeter.

Syracuse’s defense takes a significant step up in class on Thursday as Indiana boasts a very potent and balanced offense that can score inside and outside. Jordan Hulls, Christian Read more

Tags: College Basketball Syracuse Orange Indiana Hoosiers Ian Cameron

NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for the Sweet Sixteen

03.27.2013     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are the numbers we’ve been following through the Dance in tip-off order by locale. Note that I’ve updated the pace rankings from Kenpom’s website…those are the numbers as of Tuesday evening. All the other numbers you see are CONFERENCE ONLY per game averages because I wanted to take out the crazy extremes of non-conference schedules, particularly since those games were played so long ago anyway. The “conference advantage” numbers from Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings were also tabulated Tuesday night.

Some reference points.

The typical college defense allowed about 47.5% on two-pointers this year. Numbers less than that represent better than average inside defense. The typical offense made 6.0 treys per game. Interestingly, NONE of the 16 teams left averaged between 6.0 and 6.9 in their league games. We have quite a few trey-heavy teams at 7.0 makes or more. I’m surprised by how many teams were in the low 5’s or less. Always Read more

Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence

Of course a bro bet Florida Gulf Coast at 1000-1 to win the Big Dance

03.25.2013     11:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here is that story you wanted to hear about a dude with a ticket on Florida Gulf Coast at 1000-1 to win the NCAA Tournament.

"My roommate placed a bunch of bets, and this is just the one he randomly gave me," Fredricks said. "I don't think he intended for them to actually win. He has a much larger bet on Florida [FGCU's opponent on Friday] to win the championship, as well as a large wager on the field bet."

Tags: College Basketball Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers breaks down the Sweet Sixteen

03.25.2013     11:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament.   The two best conferences in the regular season – the Big Ten and the Big East – proved to be the two best conferences in the Big Dance, sending seven teams to the Sweet Sixteen.  The ACC and the PAC-12 were the only two other conferences to send multiple teams onto the second weekend of the Big Dance. 

This week, I’ll be taking a look at the sixteen remaining teams in the field; assessing their chances for tournament success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend.  Teams are listed in rotation order.

Syracuse is drawing comparisons to the UConn team that won it all two years ago.  The Orange, like the Huskies, slumped down the stretch of the regular season.  Like the Huskies, they came on strong in the Big East tournament, rebuilding their confidence in the process.  Also like UConn, Syracuse has all kinds of NBA ready talent. Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland and Brandon Triche are all expected to be drafted this spring.  Don’t Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Santa Clara Broncos at Purdue Boilermakers

03.25.2013     07:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Santa Clara at Purdue -6.5 O/U 141.5
Recommendation: Purdue

With the exception on an early season win at Saint Louis, Santa Clara has had a real difficult time stepping up in class. Against the WCC's Big Three (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU), the Broncos went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS. Of those six games, only one was decided by double-digits; a seven-point home loss to Gonzaga. And don't be fooled by SC's opening round win and cover vs. Vermont. It was an absolutely horrific travel spot/situation for the Catamounts and yet they played dead even with Santa Clara for 39 minutes before fouls and free throws created a misleading margin of victory. Purdue is using the CBI as a means of extending the careers of its seniors while getting some of its young kids extended looks. They got past Western Illinois in the first round, 81-67. I'm not sure we get a "balls out" effort from the Boilermakers but I trust Matt Painter to have his kids at least somewhat prepared. Read more

Tags: College Basketball Santa Clara Broncos Purdue Boilermakers Andrew Lange

NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Updated Market Power Ratings

03.21.2013     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve made a few tweaks to the estimated Market Power Ratings we put together the other day based on sharp line movements since the openers. When we say “market,” we’re most interested in the combination of oddsmakers (openers) plus sharps (improving the openers), and not so much the public…whose money will hit the board Thursday and Friday now that tourists have arrived with their money, alumni baseball caps, and temporarily ecstatic optimism.

To give us all a sense of what the weekend lines might look like, I’ve also written up those projected numbers based on these current ratings. It gets goofy to write up every single possibility…and I don’t think anyone really cares right now what the line would probably be if Southern plays Wichita State. So, I’m penciling in wins for all seeds 1-4 just to make things easy. Obviously history says some of those teams will bite the dust. It won’t be hard to look up a good estimate if Read more

Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence

NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: No. 10 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 7 Creighton Blue Jays

03.21.2013     07:32 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
NCAA Tournament - Midwest Region
Friday, 11:45 am PT, Philadelphia, PA
No. 10 Cincinnati vs. No. 7 Creighton
CRIS Opener: Creighton -3 O/U 126
CRIS Current: Creighton -3.5 O/U 128
Recommendation: Cincinnati

Cincinnati's blueprint is pretty straight forward – when the Bearcats shoot the ball well, they are tough to beat. When they don't, the outcome often isn't favorable. And there are plenty of numbers to support that statement. When the Bearcats scored 60 points or more in regulation they were 20-1 SU. When they didn't, 2-10. But it needs to be noted who they were facing. The Bearcats faced seven teams (9 games) that rank in the top 25 in defensive efficiency. In those games, Cinci scored 43, 51, 55, 68, 52, 55, 70, 54, and 58. We know that there is some offensive potential with this squad. Go back to an early season tournament in Las Vegas and we saw the Bearcats net 78 vs. Iowa State and 77 vs. Oregon – two teams somewhat Read more

Tags: College Basketball Cincinnati Bearcats Creighton Blue Jays Andrew Lange

NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini

03.21.2013     06:20 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
NCAA Tournament – East Region
Friday, 12:40 pm PT, Austin, Texas
No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Illinois
CRIS Opener: Illinois -1 O/U 128.5
CRIS Current: Illinois -1.5 O/U 126.5
Recommendation: Colorado

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Illinois.  The Illini started the campaign a perfect 12-0, while climbing just short of a top 10 tanking.  Their perfect start to the season included solid wins against Gonzaga and Butler.  But their start doesn’t even tell half of the story, as the Illini finished the season winning just 10 of their next 22 games.  Since the calendar turned to 2013 Illinois simply hasn’t played NCAA Tournament caliber basketball.   To put things into perspective my final Big 10 power ratings featured Iowa five full points better than Illinois, while being rated equal to Purdue!  Obviously, with this type of rating, I’m looking to fade this squad from a value Read more

Tags: College Basketball Colorado Buffaloes Illinois Fighting Illini Erin Rynning


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