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September

27

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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings Week 3

09.11.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think we’re getting closer to capturing the market. Not quite there yet. There were fewer head scratchers this week when comparing the transitions from last week.

It may be a mess for awhile in the 45-65 range because of volatility. A 55 may play like a 48 against quality but a 57 against other mid-50 teams. College sports are always messy because of the sheer volume of teams, and the fact that kids are inconsistent from week to week.

If you’re new to the site, these aren’t my “personal” ratings for all the teams. I’m not following college football nearly closely enough to have any real sense of probably the bottom 80 yet. This is my guess at how the market has the teams rated. I create “couplets” each week that match the Vegas spread (allotting 3 points for home field advantage), then I try to figure out where that couplet goes within the big scale. Over a few weeks, it’s not hard to hone in on a fairly good Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 1

09.10.2013     03:11 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cause for concern for the defending champs
Most people knew there would be an adjustment period for the Baltimore Ravens after many changes during the offseason but the holes were very much evident following their humbling 49-27 season opening loss in Denver. The Ravens offense had a solid first half but simply died from the moment that both starting right tackle Michael Oher and receiver Jacoby Jones left the game with injuries. Oher’s injury isn’t serious but Jones will be sidelined for approximately 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. From that point of the game, the Ravens offense stalled repeatedly. Denver keyed in on the ground game and shut down running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Meanwhile, players like Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson proved they were not ready to step up and fill the production void left by the injuries to Jones and Dennis Pitta as well as the departed Anquan Boldin. That allowed Denver to focus their attention defensively on Torrey Smith and nobody else was able to step up for the Ravens in the receiving corps. Clark and Dickson both dropped multiple passes thrown to them by Joe Flacco. Baltimore’s secondary also Read more



Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




College Football Gambling Update: Texas' new DC thrown into the fire

09.10.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Mississippi at Texas

Update on Texas' change at defensive coordinator. Greg Robinson will have all of three practices to implement any changes if any. Also note that UT quarterback David Ask remains questionable with a head injury. He posted big numbers (19-of-23, 326 yards, 4 TDs) in last year's 66-31 win in Oxford.


“He’ll have three practices between now and Saturday to try to get us in a better spot,” Brown said. “It’s a tough deal for him.”

“Obviously right now, we’re not sure

Read more



Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns Big XII Ole Miss Rebels SEC




NFL Betting Recap: Philadelphia Eagles soar early and hang on for outright win

09.10.2013     06:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You saw the best and the worst of what the Oregon approach has to offer for the Philadelphia Eagles in their Monday night season opener against the Washington Redskins.

*Early explosiveness

*A dumb turnover that gave away points

*A 26-7 halftime lead that could have been 29-0 or 33-0

*A loss of fire with a big lead

*A second-half run by Michael Vick where he seemed to strain a groin muscle before walking gingerly the rest of the night

 That 26-7 halftime lead only turned into a 33-27 victory. And the raw stats don’t really suggest something that’s about to take the league by storm. Let’s look at the linescore…
 
 Philadelphia 33 (+3.5), Washington 27

Philadelphia: 443 yards, 5.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 47% third downs

Washington: 382 yards, 5.5 per-play, 3 turnovers, 20% third downs

A lot of yards…but that’s because the team ran a lot of Read more



Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 1

09.09.2013     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 1.

Chicago Bears – Sure, the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year, but they won ten games and were one of the league's better teams. This defense can still make plenty of big plays, as evidenced by Charles Tillman's huge game and their complete domination against the run here. Jay Cutler did a great job finding open receivers on third and long. He connected on a pair of third and longs into very tight windows on Chicago's first touchdown drive. The revamped offensive line didn't do much for run blocking, but they gave Cutler all the time he needed all afternoon.

Cutler can still scramble out of pressure and his mobility created several opportunities that wouldn't have been there otherwise. But Cutler's propensity for making mistakes at crucial times was on display here, a horrible pass on first down as the Bears were driving in the fourth quarter. However, he made the most of his next Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints




College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 2

09.09.2013     06:38 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Another week void of any significant upsets. Washington State beat USC as over a two-touchdown underdog while Navy dispatched of Indiana as a double-digit underdog. Needless to say, most rec bettors who like to four- and five-team moneyline parlay big favorites have yet to hit many road blocks.

With most offshore books now offering lines on FBS vs. FCS games bettors will have another crack at betting against Ron Turner and his Florida International squad. Yes, the Panthers played two teams in Maryland and UCF that they probably would have lost to any other season, but it was the way that FIU lost (43-10, 38-0) that has them vying with Idaho and New Mexico State for the label of Worst Team in the Country. Don't sleep on this week's opponent Bethune-Cookman who last season rushed for 233 yards on Miami and hung tough for the first half. The year before that B-C outgained the Canes 422-335.

After a dismal showing in its opener at Virginia, BYU wasn't on the radar of many bettors. Meanwhile, a lot of folks were drinking the Texas kool-aid after they dismantled woeful New Mexico State. And for a sophisticated as the betting markets are portrayed at times, there is no Read more



Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




College Football Betting Recap: Georgia, BYU, Michigan, and Miami pick up marquee wins

09.09.2013     06:29 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m going to tweak the format just a bit to make the presentation more digestible. I’m trying to include a bunch of meaningful categories in each game. But, when re-reading everything I’m tending to skip over the numbers just to get to the copy. If you’re doing that too…then the stats are kind of disappearing from the presentation! Don’t want subtraction of the visualization by addition of numbers.

So, let’s try this…I’m going to put a few traditional key numbers in a baseball style linescore…then I’ll do a separate hunk just below with additional bits and the categories that are exclusive to this site.

There were four marquee TV games Saturday (I include Texas/BYU since I’m writing from Austin!). Let’s take them in the order they finished…

Miami 21, Florida 13

Florida: 413 yards, 5.4 per-play, 5 turnovers, 40% third downs

Miami: 212 yards, 4.0 Read more



Tags: College Football Miami Hurricanes Florida Gators BYU Cougars Texas Longhorns Georgia Bulldogs South Carolina Gamecocks Michigan Wolverines Notre Dame Fighting Irish Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

09.07.2013     05:41 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota at Detroit
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Detroit -3 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Detroit -4 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Detroit -1.5
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Minnesota

Detroit comes into season with an eight-game regular season losing streak. They were swept by the Vikings last year, losing by seven at home and by ten in Minneapolis as part of a 4-12 season. The Vikings finished with a 10-6 record in 2012 and dropped a first round playoff game to the Packers with Christian Ponder on the sidelines with an injury.

Detroit made some major changes in the offseason to try to find the right personnel to match Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Reggie Bush was brought in to be the new lead running back and there are three new starters on the offensive line. A better running game would certainly help Stafford, who has been asked to do too much with his arm in recent years. The first unit did not Read more



Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings Detroit Lions Brent Crow




College Football Gambling Preview: Florida Gators at Miami Hurricanes

09.05.2013     12:02 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Florida at Miami (FL)
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Florida -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: Florida -3 O/U 48
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida -6
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

The Florida vs. Miami rivalry isn’t much of a rivalry these days.  The two teams haven’t played since 2008, and have no scheduled meetings following Saturday’s clash at the Orange Bowl in Miami. When they played in ’08, Urban Meyer was at the height of his career with Florida, and the game was no contest: a 26-3 Gators win, with Miami held to just 140 yards of total offense.  That being said, Miami was a 24-point underdog at the closing number, and Hurricane backers got the money when they lost by only 23.

Florida’s defense may be every bit as good this year.  They completely stifled a pretty good Toledo offense last week, holding the Rockets to 12 first Read more



Tags: College Football Florida Gators SEC Miami (FL) Hurricanes ACC Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats at Illinois Fighting Illini

09.05.2013     07:34 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Illinois
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Cincinnati -7.5 O/U 54
CRIS Current: Cincinnati -7.5 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Cincinnati -13
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Cincinnati

The word is clearly out that Illinois is not to be respected at all this season. Last week we saw the Illini open -24 vs. Southern Illinois and close -17. They were in control for much of the game but SIU was able to punch in a score in the fourth quarter and U of I slipped by with a 42-34 win. And that margin was how it looked in the box score – Illinois with slight edges in first downs and total yardage.

This week, the Illini take a big step up in class as they play host to Cincinnati. The Bearcats weren't particularly sharp last week against Purdue but still rolled to a 42-7 victory. Keep in mind that from a power rating standpoint, some would argue that Purdue is stronger Read more



Tags: College Football Cincinnati Bearcats AAC Illinois Fighting Illini Big Ten Andrew Lange



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