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August

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College Football Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

08.29.2013     08:09 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC (Houston)
CRIS Opener: Oklahoma State -11 O/U 59
CRIS Current: Oklahoma State -12.5O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oklahoma State -8
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

Game Overview
While “Jerry World” has made all the headlines this spring and summer for hosting the high profile LSU-TCU game this weekend, Reliant Stadium in Houston gets a chance to put its best foot forward as they host the inaugural Texas Kickoff Classic. They’ll have the opportunity to put their “other sporting events” surface into action for this matchup as the NFL Texans personal grass field is removed and the new all-purpose artificial turf is installed. Mississippi State may have preferred watered down and muddy grass here but they’ll have to contend with OSU’s Read more



Tags: College Football Mississippi State SEC Oklahoma State Cowboys Big XII Rob Veno




College Football Gambling: Michigan uses Alabama as a blueprint

08.29.2013     06:54 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Great article on the evolution of Michigan's offense under head coach Brady Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges. Clearly, the Wolverines are trying to mimic what's going on down in Tuscaloosa.


“When I saw them in the spring it was like a war at the line of scrimmage,” BTN analyst Gerry DiNardo said. “It was what you imagine it looks like at Alabama and all the downhill teams. It changes your entire program. Just like the spread makes your defense soft, the West Coast offense makes your defense tough.”

“We have a snap count, we come downhill, we’re not in shotgun as much,” Borges said. “I believe there’s a physicality that comes with pro-style offense that doesn’t come with other offenses. ... A lot of it is how you coach it. You can be a pro-style team that throws every snap and you’re not going to have a lot of physicality with that. We don’t have that philosophy.”







Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Big Ten




College Football Betting Preview: Northwestern Wildcats at California Golden Bears

08.28.2013     11:45 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northwestern at California
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -3 O/U 58.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Northwestern -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Northwestern

When Washington State went from good to mediocre to awful in the PAC-12, it happened rather predictably.  Mike Price had success in Pullman, albeit not every year, and he left the cupboard full for his successor, Bill Doba, when Price took the Alabama job.  Doba won ten games in his first year, and the Cougars enjoyed their third consecutive top 10 ranking at the close of the season following an upset win over Texas in the Holiday Bowl.

But Doba was not the right hire; unable to recruit (or coach) the way Price did.  Washington State quickly went from a top 10 program three years running to a squad that was struggling to reach .500 every year: 5-6, 4-7, Read more



Tags: College Football Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten California Golden Bears PAC-12 Teddy Covers




Canadian Football League Week 9 Betting Recap

08.27.2013     11:59 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 9 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter, team-by-team analysis of the eight teams that were in action…

Montreal Alouettes (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
The Alouettes pulled off the upset of the season in the CFL last week as they found a way to come from behind to defeat the BC Lions in a wild 39-38 win. Even more impressive what that they were minus their starting quarterback Anthony Calvillo and several of their key starters on both sides of the football. All the credit has to go to head coach and GM Jim Popp who made a quarterback change in the first quarter with Montreal trailing 15-0. The struggling Josh Neiswander was replaced by Tanner Marsh and the game started to turn in Montreal’s favor. The Alouettes, for the second straight game, played with a ton of energy and the players that stepped in for the injured starters played hard. Marsh made some mistakes but in the end he made enough plays in the passing game against a tough BC defense including the decisive play in the game’s dying seconds to put the Alouettes in position to win. Marsh threw a near Hail Mary down the field which was Read more



Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

08.27.2013     10:57 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati (Latos) -120 at St. Louis (Kelly) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


My clients and I cashed a winner with the Reds – Cardinals Over last night; an 8-6 Slugfest.  And there’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result today.  Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:

“We’ve got excellent weather conditions for a Slugfest – hazy, hot and humid with the wind blowing out.  We’ve got a series history that has seen the winning team score eight runs or more in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, every one of them cashing an Over ticket.  We’ve got a pair of bullpens that have both struggled against the opposing lineup this year.  And we’ve got two capable offenses.  The Cards have scored six or more runs in six of their last nine.  Cinci has cashed only two Unders in their last nine games while Read more



Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
 
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling Preview: LSU Tigers vs. TCU Horned Frogs

08.26.2013     12:46 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LSU vs. TCU
Marty Otto's Recommendation:
LSU
Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN (at Cowboys Stadium)
CRIS Opener:
LSU -3 O/U 50.5
CRIS Current: LSU -4 O/U 50

This is one of the marquee games of college football’s opening week and it’s being played on a monster stage. It’s Saturday night, on ESPN primetime, at massive Cowboys Stadium. The Tigers currently find themselves as 4-point favorites and I wouldn’t expect them to go off at anything less than that number barring a major suspension or injury.

Coaching
Les Miles enters his ninth season as head coach at LSU. His teams have managed to win at least 10 games in each of the last three years and in six of his previous eight seasons. John Chavis remains as the defensive coordinator. Cam Cameron is the new offensive coordinator after a long stint in the NFL.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson has been at the helm for 13 years Read more



Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC TCU Horned Frogs Big XII Otto Sports




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Records since the All-Star Break

08.26.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I noticed a lot of people are doing web searches for this. The mainstream places should have a page updated daily! Here are Major League Baseball records only counting games played from the All-Star Break through Sunday August 25.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Best in the AL

Detroit 25-11

Texas 21-14

Kansas City 22-15

Tampa Bay 19-13

Cleveland 20-15

Let’s stop there…with the teams who have been playing the best ball in the best league. Detroit hit an extra gear at the Break, and continues to play at a very high level. They’ve clearly been the best team in the AL since then. You have to debate the relative strength of the two leagues to decide if they’re better than the Dodgers team that’s been tearing up the NL. Texas and Tampa Bay have positioned themselves very well to at least make the playoffs with solid runs. What’s amazing about Kansas City is that Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saturday Dress Rehearsals

08.25.2013     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Ten games on the Saturday schedule. One is a very late starter that we’ll save until our next report. Grab some popcorn because this one's going to take awhile. Numbers and notes from the first nine Saturday finishers in market rotation order...

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Washington 30, Buffalo 7

Total Yardage: Buffalo 155, Washington 452

Passing Stats: Buffalo 12-21-0-63, Washington 18-35-0-244

Turnovers: Buffalo 2, Washington 0

Drive Points: Buffalo 0, Washington 17

Stat Score: Buffalo 15, Washington 29

About as ugly from the Buffalo perspective as it could be…

*Kevin Kolb Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence



79

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