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August

30

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NFL Handicapping: First half over/under totals trends

10.02.2013     01:57 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Three weeks ago this blog was used to discuss the popularity of first half and halftime betting with the focus being placed on individual college team totals results. Here, I’m going to re-visit the first half/halftime theme but this will be an examination NFL team results. With one fourth of the season completed for 30 of the 32 teams, there are three that have been extreme moneymakers in first half over/under wagers posting perfect 4-0 records. While the perfection may not continue for an entire season, these teams may be indicating early on how their results are going to tilt for the majority of this season. Maybe a shift is in the works, but either way, here’s a look at what has occurred and what might be on the horizon.

Chicago Bears – The Bears have rewarded any and everybody who has played them to go over the total in the first half of each of their contests. The perfect 4-0 first half O/U record can be partially attributed to the success of their new offense implemented by first year head coach Mark Trestman. Chicago has scored at least 13 points in three of their first halves and averaged 17.75 per game. That’s a recipe Read more



Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings New York Giants Rob Veno




NFL Gambling Preview: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

09.29.2013     07:14 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago at Detroit
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Detroit -3 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Detroit -3 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -0.5
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under

So far, so good for the 3-0 Chicago Bears and new head coach Marc Trestman.  It hasn’t exactly been pretty with come from behind wins against the Bengals and Vikings and outgained by the Steelers by over 200 yards last Sunday night.  However, with their perfect record the Bears are buying what Trestman is selling.  A big key has been the look of their quick hitting West Coast offense under the direction of quarterback Jay Cutler. While many Chicago coordinators have failed this year’s offense has given the offensive line an opportunity for success.  At their most efficient this offense will keep the clock and chains moving and chew up yards.  The Bears o-line has continued to shine, which is Read more



Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Erin Rynning




NFL Handicapping Trends: Non-Conference Totals

09.25.2013     01:17 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The natural order of game importance in the NFL is one of the first things any handicapper/bettor has to learn and subsequently apply. Divisional games are by far the most important to all teams followed by conference and then non-conference. That being known, the general theories are as follows: 1) division games will be hotly contested and potentially lower scoring because of team familiarity, 2) conference action will be intense but maybe not quite as intense as division rivalries and 3) non-conference tilts are the games where letdowns and lesser focus can enable abnormal scores to occur. Of course this knowledge is simply a starting point and nothing more than one of many ingredients to be considered in each individual game handicap. Because there are eight of them this week, I’m going to use this article to look at handicapping non-conference totals.

So far this season, there have been 13 non-conference games played and the record sits at 8-5 61.5% to the over. All 13 games have had final score differentials of at least 3.5 points from the closing total and 10 of the 13 (76.9%) have ended 11.5 points or more off of the closer. Those are 10 very easy wins Read more



Tags: NFL Rob Veno




NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor through Week 2

09.17.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

With all the talk about teams trying to speed up their pace this year, I thought it might be a good idea to make an effort to monitor NFL pace as manageably as possible. A quick and dirty way to do that is to count up all the plays for each team from the boxscores (including possession-enders like field goals, punts, and turnovers), then look at the full game totals. Do that for a few weeks…and you can tell the fast from the slow just by their averages, medians, and how the numbers cluster.

I know there are ways to estimate individual offenses differently. The problem with that for me is that you have to dig into the play-by-play to figure out which penalties were offensive and which were defensive. Start doing that for every single game (while also tinkering on the side with college games), and it becomes time prohibitive. Current boxscores only show total penalties. Using full game totals includes those, and eventually helps paint the picture for you well enough.

Here now Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicpaping: Week 2 Betting and Statistical Recap

09.16.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

San Diego 33 (+7.5), Philadelphia 30

S-Diego: 539 yards, 6.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 67% third downs

Philadel: 511 yards, 8.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 45% third downs

(Whoever had the ball last was going to win, because both offenses were getting enough YPP at will to move the ball into scoring position. First glaring sign of Philly’s defensive weaknesses this Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 1

09.09.2013     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 1.

Chicago Bears – Sure, the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year, but they won ten games and were one of the league's better teams. This defense can still make plenty of big plays, as evidenced by Charles Tillman's huge game and their complete domination against the run here. Jay Cutler did a great job finding open receivers on third and long. He connected on a pair of third and longs into very tight windows on Chicago's first touchdown drive. The revamped offensive line didn't do much for run blocking, but they gave Cutler all the time he needed all afternoon.

Cutler can still scramble out of pressure and his mobility created several opportunities that wouldn't have been there otherwise. But Cutler's propensity for making mistakes at crucial times was on display here, a horrible pass on first down as the Bears were driving in the fourth quarter. However, he made the most of his next Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints




NFL Gambling Preview: Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears

09.07.2013     06:05 PM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Chicago -3 O/U 43.5
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 (-105) O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -2.5
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under

The Bengals have become the popular sleeper pick to win the rough and tumble AFC North and even more so following the Ravens debacle on Thursday night.  To win the AFC North it all starts on the defensive side of the football and the Bengals can answer that question with a roster deep on talent.  Head coach Marvin Lewis made his name on the defensive side of the football while defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has done a standout job.  Of course, it’s about the players as Geno Atkins is finally receiving accolades along the defensive line.  And there’s plenty more with cornerback Leon Hall, linebacker Vontaze Burfict, and now the addition of James Harrison.  The Bengals defense has the Read more



Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Chicago Bears Erin Rynning




NFL Preseason Betting: Browns may play starters some vs. Bears

08.28.2013     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland -2.5 at Chicago O/U 39.5

Following last week's dismal showing vs. Indianapolis, Cleveland head coach Rob Chudzinksi said the starters could see time in the team's preseason finale. It may have been just a knee-jerk reaction however as Chudzinksi has yet to commit to anything. The Bears meanwhile are not expecting to play any starters hence the market move from Chicago -2.5 to Cleveland -2.5.


"We’re going to approach this next game that those guys are going to play,'' he said. "And then I’ll make that determination later in the week as it goes on.”

“We’re going to practice all three days,” Trestman said. “We’ll have a shorter practice on Wednesday, but we’re

Read more



Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Chicago Bears




NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders

08.23.2013     11:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago at Oakland +3.5 O/U 38
Recommendation: Oakland


My very first thought process for any preseason football game involves the favorite, particularly favorites of more than a field goal like Chicago is tonight.  Why is the team favored?  Do they deserve to be favored by more than a field goal?  In this instance, my question to myself was are the Bears legitimate favorites this evening?  My answer?  No way!
The Bears offense scored ten points in their preseason opener and struggled throughout trying to move the football in their first game running Marc Trestman/Aaron Kromer’s brand new offense.   Chicago had 16 first downs, 291 total yards on 14 drives, averaging a well-below-average 4.9 yards per play.

Last week, the Bears hung 33 points on the Chargers.  But don’t be fooled by that final score!  The Bears offense was downright lousy again: 185 total yards, only 13 first downs and a lowly 3.4 yards per play Read more



Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Betting Update: Bears to spread the wealth vs. Raiders

08.22.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Chicago -3.5 at Oakland O/U 38

Update on Chicago's game plan for tomorrow's game at Oakland. Apparently everyone is making a stink about the Cutler/Marshall lovefest so expect more people to get involved in the offense. The Bears however don't plan on showing much in terms of formations and reportedly put together a "limited game plan."


"I mean you guys are hitting the panic button after two preseason games and 30 plays," Cutler said. "Yeah, we're gonna spread it around. We can't just throw to Brandon and give the ball to [running back] Matt [Forte]. We've got to find ways to get other guys involved."







Read more



Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Oakland Raiders



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August

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