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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Handicapping the best and worst NFL secondaries

07.29.2013     11:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of those squads are lined at 8.5 wins or higher again this year.

The next grouping of quarterbacks isn’t as easy to establish.  I’d probably put the likes of Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Colin Kaepernick in this grouping; and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to include Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  Just about every one of those quarterbacks also plays for a playoff contending team.

The very bottom of the pecking order is also very easy to establish.  On my list, I’d include Christian Ponder in Minnesota, Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Mark Sanchez in New York, Jake Locker in Tennessee, Blaine Gabbert or Chad Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapping: Memphis vs. San Antonio Statline Preview

05.19.2013     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A new series starts Sunday. Let’s review regular season performance in the stat categories we’ve been studying in in the college and pro postseasons. Note that these are regular season only numbers. Prefer using an 82-game sample with similar strengths of schedule. Then we can pencil in what we’ve learned so far in the playoffs if need be.

(5) Memphis: 47% two-point defense, +3.7 rebounding, +1.5 TO’S, 4.7 treys, #29 full season pace

(2) S. Antonio: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 full season pace

Pretty clear differences there once you get past two-point defense. And, the whole world was at 47% in that category anyway if you’ll recall from our first round previews!

MEMPHIS is the “defense and rebounding wins championships” team, with a huge edge on the glass, and a proven ability to force a lot of turnovers. During the regular season we encouraged you to think of them as the Read more

Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence

Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines

05.13.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.

Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Super Bowl XLVII Gambling: Let's Talk About the 49ers' Defense

02.02.2013     09:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m starting to hear a lot of chatter about how San Francisco’s defense is going to be the deciding factor in Sunday’s Super Bowl meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. While the team certainly has a top-notch defense, it may not be quite as dominating as you were thinking.

It’s easy to remember the highlights from the past season…where the Niners embarrassed teams like the Jets, Bills, and even the Bears in a big TV game. But, when facing elite offenses, it’s been a slightly different story.

Here’s what opposing offenses from PLAYOFF teams did against San Francisco’s defense this season starting with their season opener at Green Bay, and ending with their NFC Championship win over Atlanta. If you’re new to the blog, drive points are those scored or allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. The average this year was around 13 per offense per game. Note that the chart below deletes non-offensive scoring (for example...Green Bay had a Read more

Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence

A perfect match: Gambling and the Super Bowl

01.21.2013     12:34 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Publicly, the NFL is among one of the staunchest opponents of legalized gambling. Former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and current commissioner Roger Goodell were instrumental in getting the anti gaming ‘Illegal Internet Gambling Prohibition Act’ attached to the Port Security Bill. The NFL has taken this stance despite the fact that its enormous popularity is, in no small part, due to the prevalence of betting on games.

The hypocrisy of the NFL in regards to betting is almost laughable. The facts, as you will see, clearly show that the league was founded by gamblers for gamblers. From the NFL’s first television appearance in 1939 through the current TV deal that pumps more than three billion dollars per year into the league coffers, the NFL’s popularity rests upon the shoulders of those who wager on the outcome of the games.

Here in the 21st century, the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the. NFL owners are among the richest men in the world; franchises are bought and sold for more than half a billion dollars. However, the league’s humble origins were anything but the extravagant bonanza that is the NFL today. Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVII

Teddy Covers' NFL Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year

12.31.2012     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I made my end of the year Top 7 Pointspread Plays of the Year for the NFL; a look back at some of the wackiest and nerve-wracking ATS outcomes, regardless of which side you had. This week, I’m taking something of a different tack, writing about my Top 5 Hidden Pointspread Plays of the Year. These plays had massive repercussions – repercussions that were felt by the betting markets for weeks, even months after the games were played. What’s a “hidden” pointspread play? Read on to find out!

No. 5 – Week 12, Miami sack vs. Seattle
The Seahawks led throughout the second half, but a late Dolphins TD had the game tied 21-21 at the two minute warning. Seattle was driving, facing a first and ten at the Dolphins 40 yard line, needing only a few more yards to put them in position for a game winning field goal try from kicker Stephen Hauschka. But they lost yardage on their first down running attempt, then lost yardage again on a quick pass behind the line of scrimmage on second Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: How NFL Playoff Contenders fared in Week 15

12.17.2012     08:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I've been concentrating on playoff contenders for the last few weeks. Here are my thoughts as I was watching Sunday's games about eight squads that all faced off against other potential playoff foes.

Chicago - What's wrong with the Bears? Simple – the NFL is a pass-first league and Chicago has a bottom-tier passing game. Jay Cutler doesn't have time to throw the football. He got leveled on three of the first five times he dropped back to pass, and had happy feet in the pocket thereafter. He spent most of the game targeting Brandon Marshall almost exclusively (other than dump off passes to Matt Forte), but only on short routes – Cutler once again, didn't compete a single pass of longer than 20 yards. Throw in a series of costly penalties on both sides of the football and, even on a day where the defense stepped up, the Bears came up short in front of a very hostile home crowd. Forget their 7-1 start. The positive team chemistry from September and October has evaporated.

Denver - Strong pass rush! I'm not sure there's a defense in the NFL that has improved more since September than these Broncos. They are Read more

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers Baltimore Ravens Denver Broncos Dallas Cowboys. St. Louis Rams Pittsburgh Steelers Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Trends: Packers have won and covered eight of last 10 vs. Bears

12.13.2012     06:32 AM     Printer Friendly
Green Bay -3 at Chicago O/U 43

The Green Bay-Chicago rivalry continues on Sunday at Soldier Field. From a betting perspective, the Packers have dominated of late, winning and covering eight out of the late 10 in the series. Also note that of those 10 meetings, nine went UNDER the total.

Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears Betting History 2008-present
Green Bay
GB 23, CHI 10
Green Bay
Green Bay -5
Green Bay
GB 35, CHI 21
Green Bay
Green Bay -13
Green Bay
GB 27, CHI 17
Green Bay
Green Bay -4
Green Bay
GB 21, CHI 14
Green Bay
Green Bay -3.5
Green Bay
GB 10, CHI 3
Green Bay
Chicago +11
Green Bay
CHI 20, GB 17
Chicago +3
Green Bay
GB 21, CHI 14
Green Bay
Green Bay -4
Green Bay
GB 21, CHI 15
Green Bay
Green Bay -4.5
Green Bay
CHI 20, GB 17 OT
Green Bay +4
Green Bay
GB 37, CHI 3
Green Bay
Green Bay -3.5

Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears

NFL Gambling Notes: Chicago Bears defense starting to regress

12.07.2012     12:15 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Chicago -3 at Minnesota O/U 39

Injuries and perhaps age have contributed to some of the Chicago Bears' recent defensive shortcomings.

The changes could make it tough for a defense that has been struggling against the run. No one rushed for more than 106 yards against the Bears in the first six games. No one has rushed for less than 114 against them in the last six and Peterson is coming off a 210-yard performance against Green Bay, his sixth straight 100-yard game.

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Baylor Bears

12.04.2012     11:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Northwestern at Baylor -10.5 O/U 133.5
Recommendation: Baylor

Northwestern was overwhelmed by Baylor’s size and athleticism last year, thoroughly whipped in a 69-41 home loss to the Bears.  Don’t expect a dramatically different result in tonight’s rematch – the Wildcats deficiencies are likely to be on full display once again this evening.

The Wildcats were annihilated on their home floor by Maryland in the ACC-Big Ten showdown last week, losing by 20.  It didn’t get any better last weekend, when Northwestern held Illinois-Chicago to 31% shooting, won the rebounding battle by 13 and STILL lost at home by six as double-digit favorites.  Head coach Bill Carmody has limited depth once again, bad news against an athletic, fast paced squad like Baylor.  And the Bears have seen (and defended) Carmody’s Princeton offense before – don’t expect the Wildcats scoring woes to end against this Read more

Tags: College Basketball Northwestern Wildcats Baylor Bears Teddy Covers


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