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November

24

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Who has what it takes to win the 2012 National Championship Part I

02.27.2012     10:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write this article every year, and just about every year, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams. Last year, however, was an exception, with UConn coming from the middle of the pack to win the Big East title, followed by an impressive run to the National Championship.
 
Past predictions do not necessarily indicate future success, but I’ll stand by my track record in this article. Remember, as always, this gets written at the tail end of February. That’s before the regular season is over for the major conferences, before the conference tournaments, before the seedings are announced and before a single tournament game has been played.

So as I pen this article for the 2012 campaign, I do have some concerns about whether my long term statistical model still holds juice in the modern era. Not to brag, but I’ve nailed the winner of the NCAA tournament three times in the last five years, correctly predicting Florida in ‘07, Kansas in 2008 and North Carolina in ‘09. I did NOT predict Duke in ‘10, and Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




SEC Betting Notes: Mississippi State tries to take down Kentucky

02.21.2012     06:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kentucky -8.5 at Mississippi State O/U 139.5

If you can't beat Georgia, LSU and Auburn, then how do you expect to take down the best team in the nation? That is what currently slumping Mississippi State must deal with tonight in Starkville as Kentucky comes strolling to town. We know the Bulldogs are capable and the Wildcats are due for a loss – aren't they?. But if both teams bring their "B" game, the road side wins by double-digits.


"I've seen a lot of Kentucky teams and this may be as good as I've Read more



Tags: College Basketball Mississippi State Bulldogs Kentucky Wildcats




College Basketball Handicapping: Schedule toughens for top teams

02.08.2012     07:04 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For those that follow college basketball scheduling and like to note strength of schedule, RPI and more, here is an update on top team Kentucky’s schedule along with others of note.
Between Kentucky and Louisville, their combined 15 remaining regular season games include nine against the top 35 teams in the RPI.

Kentucky is No. 3 in RPI and passed its test Tuesday with a big home win over Florida. The Wildcats have four of their remaining six home games against teams currently ranked in AP Top 25. Kentucky’s strength of schedule ranked 83rd in the RPI prior to playing Florida, and is projected by Statsheet.com to be No. 50 nationally at the end of the regular season.

Ohio State held off Purdue yesterday and the Buckeyes are projected to go from No. 34 to No. 12 in SOS by season’s end and join Kentucky and Syracuse as projected No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is No. 4 in RPI currently.

North Carolina plays Duke tonight in a key ACC showdown with first place at stake, and the Tar Heels are projected to go from No. 42 to No. 12 by seasons end while Read more


Tags: College Basketball __




College Basketball Free Play: Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats

02.07.2012     01:54 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Florida +9 at Kentucky O/U 141.5
Recommendation: Florida


The Florida Gators have just about everything I like to look for out of a road underdog.  We’ve seen the Gators in this role twice already this season at Ohio State and at Syracuse; two teams – like the Kentucky squad they’ll face tonight – with legitimate national championship potential.   Florida was in both games right through the final buzzer, losing by four and seven points while covering the pointspread in both instances.

This is nothing new or different for Billy Donovan’s Gators.  This team has the type of veteran leadership we love to see in the backcourt, with senior guard Erving Walker and junior guard Kenny Boynton combining for 191 career starts between them.  No surprise then, that in the Walker-Boynton era, Florida is 16-5-1 ATS as underdogs.  And this year’s Gator team might be the best of the bunch! Read more


Tags: College Basketball Florida Gators Kentucky Wildcats Teddy Covers




College Basketball Handicapping: SEC schedule favors Kentucky

01.25.2012     01:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting article on the SEC's schedule heavily favoring golden child Kentucky. Because of wanting to get them in the national spotlight as much as possible, the Wildcats have typically received more preparation time in between conference games compared to the rest of the league. The SEC’s coaches aren't too thrilled with the set up.


"If you're trying to get more teams into the NCAA Tournament, don't put the teams inside your league into a competitive disadvantage," Donovan said. That's not too much to ask, but that's exactly what the SEC schedule did last week to Alabama and will do to the Crimson Tide again next month.

"Go figure that out for me, would you?" Stallings said. "We all agreed to do it (play Thursday-Saturday for television), so if you have one (of those weeks), like we have one, I'm not going to complain. To not have any and to be able to play four teams that have to do it to play you ... that's not right."






Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats




NCAA Basketball Betting: Kentucky not facing enough adversity according to Calipari

01.24.2012     06:16 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kentucky -12.5 at Georgia O/U 130

Kentucky head coach John Calipari is a smart man and during a recent interview basically said that his team actually needs to lose in order to better prepare themselves for the postseason. Unfortunately for Calipari, that has only occurred once this year; back on December 10 at Indiana. Since then, UK has ripped off 11th straight including five in the SEC. Last year, there were points during the SEC season where the Cats were 2-2, 4-4 and 5-5. They peaked at the right time though and didn't lose a game from February 26 until a one-point loss to eventual champ UConn in the Final Four.


I like our will to win down the stretch. In all these close games you're gonna start getting nipped. You know what I told them last night Tony? We met at my house. I said ‘we probably need to get beat so you guys will Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Georgia Bulldogs




SEC Basketball Betting News and Notes 1-20-2012

01.20.2012     01:33 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The SEC race is shaping up as a two-team sprint after the first three weeks of conference play. Kentucky and Vanderbilt are the front runners with everyone else falling back into the pack. The Wildcats and Commodores could not be any more different, with Kentucky made up of all freshmen and sophomores while Vandy gets its production from upperclassmen.  Vanderbilt also does not get the respect from bettors and oddsmakers that Kentucky does, although that may change after the Commodores dominated Alabama in Tuscaloosa last night. I doubt that we will see Vandy getting five points on the road anymore unless it is at Kentucky.  On the other hand, Kentucky continues to struggle as road chalk in conference play, winning but failing to cover at Auburn and Tennessee.

I expect more of the same from Kentucky this season. Last year, they had a different group of freshmen, but they displayed the same characteristics on the road in SEC play. Everyone in the league gets up to play Kentucky, so they always get their opponents’ best effort. Freshmen are still freshmen, whether they are future first round picks or not, and I’ll be looking for chances to play against Read more


Tags: College Basketball Brent Crow




College Basketball Betting: Kentucky Wildcats struggle to cover pointspreads

01.16.2012     02:17 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Typically, the best teams in college basketball post against the spread records around the .500 mark. They obviously win a lot which is correlated with covering spreads but on the same token, the extra "tax" and attraction to bettors often keeps them from putting up great ATS numbers. Take last year from example. North Carolina (16-17 ATS), Duke (20-16 ATS), Kansas (18-17 ATS), Pittsburgh (15-14 ATS), Syracuse (15-18 ATS), Ohio State (18-16 ATS) and Kentucky (16-16 ATS) were all right around the .500 mark. There were some expectations, most notably UConn (23-12 ATS), but the Huskies came from way off the grid to go 10-1 ATS during the postseason.

But this year, something odd is taking place. Kentucky, which is considered to be one of the best teams in the country, is a horrific 3-13-1/4-12-1/4-13 ATS (depending on what numbers you go by). Based on one set of numbers I saw, the Wildcats haven't covered a game since November 19 – after starting the season 3-0 ATS. So why has Kentucky been such a poor spread team? No question, there is a tax tacked onto the Cats – but the same can be said about a lot teams. But unlike those teams, Kentucky is young, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Play: Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers

01.11.2012     07:32 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kentucky at Auburn +18 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Auburn


Even though Kentucky is a completely different team from a year ago, the make-up of the team is very similar – a load of talent and not a lot of experience. Going on the road with freshmen can be difficult on any team and Kentucky is no exception. Last season, the Wildcats went 2-6 SU on the highway in SEC play – a group that was two points from playing for the National Championship. Despite back-to-back horrendous road showings (29-point loss to Florida State and 30-point loss to Vanderbilt), I trust that Auburn is going to play much better at home against an opponent that won't be difficult to get up for. The Tigers weren't very good last season yet in SEC play, their home losses were by margins of 7, 5, 10, 13, 17 and 2. Over the past week we've seen both Georgia Tech (vs. Duke) and Illinois (vs. Ohio State) perform better than they have all season – at home vs. a top rated opponent. With Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Auburn Tigers Andrew Lange




NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: Kentucky continues its run of UNDERS

12.12.2011     03:12 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dating back to last season, Kentucky has been one of the strongest "under" teams in the country and yet for whatever reason, oddsmakers continue to post their totals 4-6 points higher than where they should be and the betting markets add to it with heavy action on the over in a majority of their games.

During last year’s postseason, including the SEC Tournament, Kentucky went 1-6-1 O/U -- the lone over was by a mere point. This year, we are seeing more of the same with the Wildcats 2-6 O/U. The two games that went over were because the competition was so weak that Kentucky couldn’t help but score 87 and 108. But even in games where UK scored 81 (vs. St. John's) and 85 (vs. Penn State) they still failed to go over the total. Against Kansas? Not even close as the game closed 147.5 and Kentucky won 75-65. Last week against North Carolina, it looked as if we might see a high profile game involving Kentucky cash an over ticket with 81 points in the first half. Instead, the game bogged down and landed 145 with a closing total of 156.5 (it opened 150.5!).

The theme in all of this is not pace -- Kentucky is actually playing much faster this season Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Andrew Lange



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