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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' NCAA Tournament Final Four Betting Preview

03.26.2012     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Over the last two weeks we’ve seen 64 NCAA Tournament teams get eliminated from the field, leaving only the Final Four remaining with a chance to cut down the nets in New Orleans next Monday.

College hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy breaks down the four teams chances to win the title as follows: Kentucky 42%, Ohio State 34%, Kansas 17% and Louisville 7%. From my perspective, if John Calipari’s Wildcats play as well next weekend as they did this past weekend, that 42% chance of a title looks pretty darn low.

That being said, it’s going to be very hard for Kentucky to match their near flawless offensive performances in wins over Baylor and Indiana. The Wildcats have scored a ridiculous 220 points in their last 163 possessions; a 1.35 points per possession ratio. Those are not sustainable numbers, even for a team that closed out the weekend ranked #2 in the country (behind only Missouri) with 1.17 points per possession average.

Both Final Four games are rematches of non-conference affairs from earlier in the season. The talking heads on TV are sure to bring up this angle ad nauseum, but the bottom line is that neither affair had a Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Odds: Kentucky a -128 favorite to win championship

03.26.2012     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
Saturday's Final Four in New Orleans is set and not surprising, Kentucky is the betting favorite to win it all.

Current Lines
Louisville vs. Kentucky -8.5 O/U 138.5
Ohio State -2.5 vs. Kansas O/U 136.5

Pinnacle Championship Futures
Kentucky -128
Ohio State +281
Kansas +499
Louisville +1150





Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Louisville Cardinals




NCAA Tournament Betting Notes: Kentucky playing up-tempo in postseason

03.25.2012     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baylor vs. Kentucky -8 O/U 147.5

Article discussing how both Baylor and Kentucky prefer to play at a fast pace. After averaging only 62 possessions per game in SEC play, the Wildcats have played to 70, 67and 73 possessions in the NCAA Tournament.


"Do you want to play slow or fast?'' he asked them on the podium during Saturday's news conference.

"Fast,'' Kentucky senior guard Darius Miller said.

"Huh. If they play the way they enjoy playing, they're going to play better,'' Calipari said. "They just are. They're going to be more comfortable. I trust these players. We had six turnovers and we scored 102 points. I know they're going to make good decisions. The only time they don't is when I leave them on the court too long.''

Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Baylor Bears




NCAA Tournament Odds: Kentucky nearly a -200 favorite to win South Regional

03.19.2012     01:33 PM     Printer Friendly
Adjusted odds to win the four regional titles courtesy of Pinnacle.

East Regional
Ohio State +110
Syracuse +204
Wisconsin +534
Cincinnati +900

Midwest Regional
North Carolina +104
Kansas +126
NC State +925
Ohio +2800

South Regional
Kentucky -199
Baylor +352
Indiana +850
Xavier +2000

West Regional
Michigan State +132
Marquette +293
Florida +420
Louisville +502




Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats




NCAA Tournament Gambling: A handicapper's look at the Sweet Sixteen

03.19.2012     07:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s take a look at those 16 teams and assess their chances for tournament success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend. Teams are listed in rotation order.

Wisconsin is a mirror image of their head coach Bo Ryan: tough as nails. There’s no questioning the Badgers execution or heart, but this is not one of the more talented teams that Ryan has coached during his tenure in Madison. The Badgers are an offensively challenged ballclub that relies heavily on their three-point shooting. Four of their top five scorers average at least one made three pointer per game. Their leading rebounder, Ryan Evans, is 6-6, 210; not a team with a dominant inside presence. We’ve seen the Badgers end up on the wrong side of nearly every “step up in class” game away from home this year, with two exceptions: their win at Ohio State and their win over Vandy to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

Fab Melo’s academic ineligibility wasn’t a major factor for Syracuse in either of its Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




Top 10 tips for gambling on the 2012 NCAA Tournament

03.13.2012     06:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When March Madness rolls around, no one is immune to the itch to get in on the action, whether it’s laying down a bet or simply competing in an office pool. I’ll share my Top 10 NCAA Tournament gambling strategies in this article. There are no surprises here – veteran bettors know this stuff already, but it never hurts to think about these concepts again before the Big Dance begins.

1) Fade the teams that looked great last weekend
There’s no such thing as carrying over momentum from conference tournament weekend to the Big Dance. Of the Top 16 teams in the Big Dance – the top four teams from each region – only four of them (Michigan State, Louisville, Missouri and Florida State) won their conference tournaments.

Many of the top contenders for the national title dropped out early; focusing on this coming weekend as opposed to last weekend. The teams that went all out to secure a bid or win their conference title but came up short, like Cincinnati, Baylor and San Diego State , tend to be particularly strong on the fade list.

2) Winning your office pool requires luck
When Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Prop Bet: Will these teams reach the Sweet Sixteen?

03.12.2012     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
Pinnacle is offering a prop bet on whether or not various top seeds will reach the Sweet Sixteen.

Kentucky: Yes -600, No +452
Michigan State: Yes -245, No +205
North Carolina: Yes -450, No +354
Syracuse: Yes -225, +354
Duke: Yes -180, No. +153
Missouri: Yes -270, No +224




Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Michigan State Spartans Syracuse Orange North Carolina Tar Heels Missouri Tigers Duke Blue Devils




NCAA Tournament Prop Bet: Will a No. 1 seed win it all?

03.12.2012     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly
Pinnacle is offering a prop bet on whether or not a No. 1 seed (Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, North Carolina) will win the NCAA Tournament. The price on "Yes" is currently -123, while "No" is +105. Dating back to 1997, here are the title winners and their seed. Nine of the last 15 winners have been No. 1 seeds.

2011 - #3 UConn
2010 - #1 Duke
2009 - #1 North Carolina
2008 - #1 Kansas
2007 - #1 Florida
2006 - #3 Florida
2005 - #1 North Carolina
2004 - #2 UConn
2003 - #3 Syracuse
2002 - #1 Maryland
2001 - #1 Duke
2000 - #1 Michigan State
1999 - #1 UConn
1998 - #2 Kentucky
1997 - #4 Arizona




Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats North Carolina Tar Heels Michigan State Spartans Syracuse Orange




Oddsmakers say that Kentucky to win it all is a bad bet

03.12.2012     06:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Local Las Vegas oddsmakers weigh in on this year's NCAA Tournament. A few noted that there is little to no value in supporting tournament favorite Kentucky. The Wynn has the Wildcats at 9-to-5. Offshore, The Greek has +185 and Pinnacle +240.


“It’s an awful price,” said Johnny Avello, director of Wynn’s race and sports book. “I want to raise it, but we’ve taken money on this team the entire year. They bet them at the beginning, they bet them in the middle and they bet them at the end.”

“They are definitely deserving as the top team,” said Jay Rood, sports book director for MGM Resorts. “(Kentucky coach) Calipari has mastered the system of getting top young talent and getting them to buy in by playing impactful and meaningful games right off of the bat. This is one of his best teams yet.”






Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Las Vegas




SEC Tournament Gambling Preview: Kentucky the overwhelming favorite

03.08.2012     05:35 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Obviously Kentucky is the overwhelming favorite in the SEC Tourney, and despite coach John Calipari’s disdain for the tournament, if anyone else wins it will be a major upset.


"Three games in three days doesn't prepare you for anything," Calipari said Tuesday as UK began preparations for the SEC Tournament later in the week. "We just played a whole league schedule." Calipari, who has long made no secret of his lukewarm, at best, attitude about league tournaments, acknowledged how the SEC Tournament (Thursday through Sunday in New Orleans) appeals to UK fans who can't attend a game in Rupp Arena.

"Fans spend their vacation money, their rent money, their cigarette money, and they go to this tournament," Calipari said. "... You almost feel an obligation. Let's go play."



If the Cats were not head and shoulders above the rest of the league, such statements might be an automatic green light to look to fade his team. However, as we have seen in road games at Florida, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, Kentucky can sleepwalk through 30 minutes of a game and then use its shutdown defense to pull Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Brent Crow



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