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December

9

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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Recapping College Football Week 1

09.03.2012     06:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
As I Tweeted (@teddy_covers) this past Sunday, it’s all NFL from here on out for the rest of 2012 – the time for leisurely Sunday’s has come and gone. With my writing focus turning to the NFL as well, I thought this week’s column should be about something else. And with the opening weekend of college football in the books, I figured a random college football observations column made perfect sense at this juncture. So here goes!

There’s an old sports betting adage about not overreacting to the results of a single game. In the middle of the season, I agree 100% – after a team’s mo. is clearly defined. But in Week 1, I think it’s just as important not to underreact either!

When Houston loses at home 30-13 to Texas State as 34.5-point favorites, that’s a meaningful result. It’s meaningful when Oklahoma can’t move the football for extended stretches against UTEP, punting eight times on 13 drives. It’s meaningful when San Jose State outscores Stanford 17-6 after the first quarter and outgains the Cardinal for the full 60 Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Tennessee Volunteers Season Over/Under Wins

08.21.2012     01:58 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I haven’t made up my mind yet on Tennessee. On one hand you see two “wheelhouse” attributes that indicate improvement is on the way – head coach in his third year and 19 returning starters. But on the other hand, I remain leery that Derek Dooley is capable of taking the team/program to new heights and whether or not they have enough talent to help him in his efforts.  But beyond the coaching and personnel, what I’m most intrigued with is their season over/under win total.

Pinnacle doesn’t like to move its raw number on these totals, but instead adjusts the juice. Two prime examples of this are Ole Miss and Kentucky. Both schools opened 5.5 wins and have seen nearly all of the money come in on the UNDER. The Rebels are currently 5.5un-487 while the Wildcats are 5.5un-377. Do a little bit of reading on both teams and a quick glance at the schedule, and on the surface it appears very unlikely either team will reach six wins – they might not combine for six wins! But for some bettors, chasing a line and tying up three or four units until December to win one unit isn’t worth it. Not to mention, no matter how Read more



Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers SEC Andrew Lange




NCAA Championship ATS Notes: Oddsmaker's power rating came out Kentucky -4.5

04.02.2012     02:39 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wynn oddsmaker John Avello noted that his power rating for tonight's NCAA Championship came out Kentucky -4.5. Anticipating the betting love for the Wildcats, he opened the game -5.5. The game is currently -6.5 across the board.


"My power ratings actually had this game at minus-4.5, but I pumped it up a little because we've seen nothing but Kentucky money anytime they play," Avello said. "I knew if I hung that number that it would be a landslide, so I went with 5.5."






Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks




NCAA Championship Handicapper Preview: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats

04.02.2012     08:55 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas vs. Kentucky
Recommendation: Kentucky -3.5 1st half

I feel like Kentucky is the better team and should win this game, but to me, laying -3.5 in the first half in better than -6.5 for the game. We have seen Kansas struggle in first halves the entire tournament, going 0-4 ATS since its opening round win over Detroit. Kentucky has been the opposite, leading by 3, 7, 11, 19 and 20 at the break in its five games (4-1 ATS). The only real weakness we have seen out of Kentucky on defense is giving up some threes and transition, something that only Indiana was able to take advantage of. That is not really the strength of Kansas, and they have definitely not been a fast starting team, so I expect Kentucky to cover the small halftime number. However, based on KU’s first half/second half dichotomy, don’t forget to consider supporting them after the break if the price is right.




Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Brent Crow




NCAA Championship Gambling Preview: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats

04.02.2012     07:03 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas vs. Kentucky -6 O/U 137.5
Recommendation: Kentucky


Last game of what has been an absolutely remarkable season. From a service perspective, I produced my third straight winning season with 59% winners and +33.65 units of profit on 185 documented plays. I thank all of the clients that got on board and look forward to continued winning success in the NBA, MLB, and beyond.

As for tonight's National Championship, I don't have a super-strong opinion but have made a personal wager on Kentucky. Most of you know that I prefer underdogs and when I do back a favorite, I don't lay more than a bucket it or two – my clients haven't received a recommendation on a favorite over -4 since way back in November. But this is a tricky price range and one that you have to ask yourself: Do you think Kentucky is going to win the game? I believe they will based on what I've seen the last two or three weeks. Obviously, Kansas is more than capable of covering the +6 as Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Andrew Lange




Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers offer last minute opinions on betting the Final Four

03.31.2012     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers was featured in Chad Millman's ESPN Final Four preview. Below is what Teddy had to say about both matchups.


Covers says: "I actually thought Louisville-Kentucky would be a little shorter at about seven. Betonline opened at 9.5, 5Dimes opened at 8. I honestly think that number is a little bit high. With Kentucky you are talking about four or five guys that could start in the NBA next year. The problem with that side is I don't think they can play any better than they did recently -- they were just lights out. And yet against Indiana and Baylor, there we were at the end and sweating it out. As good as they were and as well as they played, there is not a lot of value on the Kentucky side. Louisville is a great dog, 8-3 catching points this year. Look at the first game these two played: The fact that Louisville held Kentucky under 30 percent shooting in that game tells us that team has the potential to keep the game in check. I haven't bet it yet because I think we might see 9.5 in Vegas before we tip off."

Covers says: "In February, before the brackets, I wrote that I thought these two teams would play for the

Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Ohio State Buckeyes Kansas Jayhawks Teddy Covers




Final Four Betting Stats: Kentucky struggles ATS vs. better defenses

03.30.2012     08:49 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Taking a look at Kentucky's results against the top five defenses on its schedule. I used Ken Pom's defensive efficiency ratings. Louisville is currently the no. 1 team in the country at 0.84 points per possession allowed. Of the six games, the Wildcats went 6-0 SU but 2-4 ATS. Four of the six games went UNDER the total.

No. 1 Louisville (0.84 ppp allowed)
Result: Kentucky 69, Louisville (+10) 62; Under 136

No. 4 Kansas (0.86)
Result: Kentucky (-6.5) 75, Kansas 65; Under 147.5

No. 8 Alabama (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 77, Alabama (+10) 71; Over 130

No. 10 North Carolina (0.88)
Result: Kentucky 73, North Carolina (+6.5) 72; Under 156.5

No. 30 Vanderbilt (0.93)
Result: Kentucky (-4.5) 69, Vanderbilt 63; Under 135.5
Result: Kentucky 83, Vanderbilt (+11.5) 74; Over 138.5





Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Andrew Lange




Final Four Gambling: John Calipari tells everyone to bet the OVER Saturday

03.29.2012     12:25 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Louisville vs. Kentucky -8.5 O/U 137.5

This is either the greatest bit of sports betting information EVER or just another basketball coach telling the media what it wants to hear.


John Calipari: “I think our game Saturday is going to be in the 90s. We don't want to be in a hurry to score, but we want to play fast. I think the games are going to be a little more jumbled up (in the Final Four) and the teams are going to go up and down. It should be exciting.”







Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals




NCAA Tournament: Final Four pointspread and betting statistics

03.27.2012     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament pointspread numbers for the Final Four.

Strength Of Schedule
1: Louisville – 52.3
2: Kansas – 51.6
3: Ohio State – 51.4
4: Kentucky – 48.4

Against The Spread
1: Louisville 4-0 (2-0 Favorite / 1-0 Underdog / 1-0 Pick ‘em)
2: Ohio State 3-1 (3-1 Favorite)
3: Kentucky 3-1 (3-1 Favorite)
4: Kansas 2-2 (2-2 Favorite)

Totals – Over/ Under
1: Kentucky 4-0
2: Ohio State 4-0
3: Kansas 1-3
4: Louisville 1-3

First Half Score Averages
1: Kentucky - 43.8 / Opponents - 30.5 / Total 1H - 74.3
2: Kansas - 35.8 / Opponents - 35.0 / Total 1H - 70.8
3: Ohio State - 36.8 / Opponents - 30.5 / Total 1H – 67.3
4: Louisville – 28.8 / Opponents – 27.3 / Total 1H – 56.1

Second Half Score Averages
1: Kentucky – 44.3 / Opponents – 43.3 / Total 2H – 87.6 (allowed 40+ second half points in all four games)
2: Ohio State – 40.5 / Opponents – 34.8 / Total 2H – 75.3 (4-0 ATS in second Read more



Tags: NCAA Tournament Ohio State Buckeyes Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Louisville Cardinals Rob Veno




NCAA Tournmanet Betting: Final Four Against the Spread Notes

03.27.2012     06:37 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Final Four in New Orleans is set as no. 1 seed Kentucky, no. 2 Ohio State, no. 2 Kansas and no. 4 Louisville light up the Superdome. The Elite Eight had some super finishes and tight contests with three of the four games landing within five points of the poinspread.  The Kansas–North Carolina game had a one-point margin with 3+ minutes to go before the Jayhawks finished the game on a 12-0 run to pull away for the win.

The Sweet Sixteen also had many close contests with all four games last Friday landing within five points of the pointspread. Of the 12 games last week, eight landed within five points of the line. During the course of the college basketball season, 40% of all games landed within five points of the betting line, so you can see how tight the numbers are as the tournament progresses.

With that said, here are some Final Four Against-the-Spread (ATS) notes. Since 1998, the better seeded team is 21-8 SU and 22-7 ATS. Teams seeded no. 4 or worse are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS if they are playing a better seeded team. Top-seeded no. 1 teams taking on a worse seed are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS the past 14 years including 11-3 ATS if favored by -8 or Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Louisville Cardinals __



8

Page 8 of 17
"Kentucky Wildcats'"

December

8


 
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